PDI Enrollment Study for Brunswick School Dept, May 2004

8/10/2019 PDI Enrollment Study for Brunswick School Dept, May 2004

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SCHOOL ENROLLMENTPROJECTIONS FOR

BRUNSWICK

Prepared for:

The Brunswick School Department

Prepared by:

Planning Decisions, Inc.

P.O. Box 2414

South Portland, ME 04116-2414

May, 2004


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VIII. Summary of Enrollment for School Planning Purposes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55

A. Best Fit Projections of Brunswick Residents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55

B. Best Fit Projections of Durham Choice Tuition Students . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58

C. Best Fit Projections of Brunswick Residents and Durham

Choice Tuition Students . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59

APPENDIX A: Grade by Grade Historical and Projected Enrollment, and Grade Group

Summaries


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B runswi ck FINAL Enro ll ment R epor t 2003-04 04-508 5-19-2004.wpd - M ay, 2004 Page 1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

One model, called the 2003-04 best fit model was used to project future enrollment in Brunswick.

In order to provide reasonable cushions for use in the planning of school facilities, Planning

Decisions has summarized school enrollment projections by grade group and presented the

projections within ranges of plus and minus 10% for the K-8 grade groups and plus and minus 10%for the 9-12 grade group. These ranges should provide reasonable cushions for school planning

purposes.

The Brunswick School Department educates three different groups of students. The first group is

what Planning Decisions refers to as traditional resident or non-military students. These

traditional students are Brunswick resident students who follow a traditional path through a school

system. The second group of students is called military dependent students, or students who are

children of military personnel stationed at the Brunswick Naval Air Station, and are students who

generally do not follow a normal path through a school system as a result of their parents

employment. The third groups of students are choice tuition students from the Town of Durham who

attend the Brunswick High School. These students are residents of the Town of Durham who chooseto attend high school in Brunswick.


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Brunswick FINAL Enrollment Report 2003-04 04-508 5-19-2004.wpd - May, 2004Page 2

! Best Fit Projections for all Brunswick Resident Enrollment:

Planning Decisions best fit model is based on resident birth levels in Brunswick

between 1998-99 and 2002-03, and on an out-migration of preschool-aged children

similar to the level of out-migration that occurred over the last five years. These

projections include military dependent and non-military students, but do notinclude Durham choice tuition students.

The best fit model, is the most likely scenario to occur in Brunswick based on a

standard statistical model using historical enrollment trends.

School Enrollment Projection Ranges - 2004-05 to 2013-14 (K-12)

All Brunswick Residents - Best Fit Model

School

Year

Elementary School

(K-5)

Middle School

(6-8)

High School

(9-12)

-10% Proj. +10% -10% Proj. +10% -5% Proj. +5%

2004-05 1,265 1,405 1,546 676 751 826 927 976 1,025

2005-06 1,273 1,414 1,555 646 718 790 918 966 1,014

2006-07 1,243 1,381 1,519 625 694 763 895 942 989

2007-08 1,210 1,344 1,478 593 659 725 905 953 1,001

2008-09 1,174 1,304 1,434 626 696 766 861 906 951

2009-10 1,179 1,310 1,441 604 671 738 849 894 939

2010-11 1,165 1,294 1,423 599 665 732 831 875 919

2011-12 1,157 1,285 1,414 576 640 704 817 860 903

2012-13 1,167 1,297 1,427 569 632 695 808 851 894

2013-14 1,177 1,308 1,439 544 604 664 807 849 891

Note:Enrollment figures do not include special education students placed outside o f the district.

Sources: Projected by Planning Decisions, Inc., May, 2004.

NOTE: Military dependent enrollment assumes the level of activity at Brunswick

Naval Air Station remains similar to the recent past, and that distribution of

base related housing remains the same. If the level of activity at Brunswick

Naval Air Station changes or if base housing now located in Topsham is

relocated to Brunswick, this component of enrollment will change.


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! Best Fit Projections for the First Grade and Grade Groups in Brunswick:

These best fit projections figures include enrollment of all Brunswick residents, including

military dependent students and non-military students. However, these figures do not

include Durham choice tuition students attending the Brunswick High School.

First Grade Class Size:

Under the best fit model, Planning Decisions projects that Brunswick

should experience an average first grade enrollment of 225 students over the

next ten years. In addition, first grade enrollment should range between 212

and 244 students through 2013-14. These figures include military

dependent students. An estimated 75 to 85 military dependent students

are projected to be in each first grade class in each year.

Grades K-5 Enrollment:

Grades K-5 enrollment of all Brunswick students will decline from the

current enrollment of 1,445 students, ranging between 1,344 and 1,414

students through 2007-08. Following 2007-08, enrollment will decline

further, but will remain fairly stable, ranging between 1,285 and 1,310

students through 2013-14. These figures include military dependent

students. An estimated 387 military dependent students are projected to

be in grades K-5 in each year.

Grades 6-8 Enrollment:

Grades 6-8 enrollment of all Brunswick students will decline from the currentenrollment of 736 students, reaching 604 students by 2013-14. These figures

include military dependent students. An estimated 152 military

dependent students are projected to be in grades 6-8 in each year.

Grades 9-12 Enrollment:

Grades 9-12 enrollment of all Brunswick students at the high school in

Brunswick will remain similar to the current enrollment of 974 students,

ranging between 942 and 976 students through 2007-08. Following 2007-08,

enrollment will begin to decline reaching 849 students by 2013-14. These

figures include military dependent students. An estimated 121 military



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! Best Fit Projections for all Durham Choice student enrollment:

The projection of Durhams choice tuition enrollment in Brunswick was first based

on the best fit projections of all Durham resident students. Planning Decisions

best fit model for Durham residents is based on resident birth levels in Durham

between 2000-01 and 2002-03, and on an in-migration of preschool-aged childrensimilar to the level of in-migration that occurred over the last five years, with the

exception of the 2004-05 first grade class which is based on the 2003-04

Kindergarten enrollment. Then, the projections of choice tuition students assume

Durham students will continue to choose to attend the Brunswick High School at the

same rate as they have over the last two years.

The projections of Durham choice tuition students do not account for circumstances

which could impact in choice tuition enrollment; which includes but is not limited

to, the Town of Durham choosing to send all Durham students the Lisbon High

School, School Union 30 forming a School Administrative District, or Brunswick

entering into a contract with the Town of Durham to receive a maximum orminimum percentage of all Durham students.

The best fit model, is the most likely scenario to occur in Durham based on a

standard statistical model using historical enrollment trends.

School Enrollment Projection Ranges - 2004-05 to 2013-14 (9-12)

Durham Choice Tuition Student Enrollment in Brunswick - Best Fit Model

School

Year

High School (9-12)

-5% Proj. +5%

2004-05 173 182 191

2005-06 171 180 189

2006-07 170 179 188

2007-08 170 179 188

2008-09 171 180 189

2009-10 167 176 185

2010-11 170 179 188

2011-12 166 175 1842012-13 166 175 184

2013-14 176 185 194




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! Best Fit Projections for all Brunswick student and Durham Choice Tuition enrollment:

These best fit projections figures include enrollment of all Brunswick residents, including

military dependent students and non-military students, and also include projections of

Durham choice tuition students attending the Brunswick High School. In addition, these

projections assume K-12 enrollment of military dependents should stay the same as it hasin the past (or at a level of about 660 military dependent students per year), and Durham

choice tuition enrollment in grades 9-12 remains consistent with the enrollment occurring

over the last two years, and should range between 175 and 182 students through 2013-14.

Total K-12 enrollment in Brunswick is projected to decline from 3,314 students in

2004-05, reaching 2,946 students by 2013-14. Brunswicks military dependent

enrollment is projected to remain stable at 660 students, and should account for about

20% to 23% of total K-12 enrollment in Brunswick. In addition, Durham tuition

students enrollment is projected to remain fairly stable, ranging between 175 and 182

students through 2013-14, and should account for about 5% to 6% of total K-12

enrollment in Brunswick. However, the non-military or traditional resident studentenrollment is projected to decline from 2,472 students in 2004-05, reaching 2,101

students by 2013-14.

School Enrollment Projection Ranges - 2004-05 to 2013-14 (K-12)

All Brunswick Residents and Durham Choice Tuition Enrollment - Best Fit Model

School

Year

Elementary School

(K-5)

Middle School

(6-8)

High School

(9-12)

-10% Proj. +10% -10% Proj. +10% -5% Proj. +5%

2004-05 1,265 1,405 1,546 676 751 826 1,100 1,158 1,216

2005-06 1,273 1,414 1,555 646 718 790 1,089 1,146 1,203

2006-07 1,243 1,381 1,519 625 694 763 1,065 1,121 1,177

2007-08 1,210 1,344 1,478 593 659 725 1,075 1,132 1,189

2008-09 1,174 1,304 1,434 626 696 766 1,032 1,086 1,140

2009-10 1,179 1,310 1,441 604 671 738 1,017 1,070 1,124

2010-11 1,165 1,294 1,423 599 665 732 1,001 1,054 1,107

2011-12 1,157 1,285 1,414 576 640 704 983 1,035 1,087

2012-13 1,167 1,297 1,427 569 632 695 974 1,025 1,076

2013-14 1,177 1,308 1,439 544 604 664 974 1,025 1,076




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! A review of residential development trends in Brunswick indicates the following:

Over the last three years (2001 to 2003), residential growth in Brunswick (104 new

housing units annually) has been at higher levels than seen over the last five years

(1999 to 2003) (92 new housing units annually), and the last ten years (1994 to 2003)

(71 new housing units annually).

Based on this study, there appeared to be no correlation between residential

development and preschool and elementary migration. Therefore, based on recent

residential development trends in Brunswick, the best fit model, which is based on

historical enrollment trends, adequately accounts for the impact of residential

development on preschool and elementary in-grade in-migration of students into

Brunswick schools.

! Factors Influencing the Entering Class Size (First Grade) in Brunswick:

Resident Birth Trends:

Birth levels among Brunswick residents during the ten-year period of 1987-88 to

1996-97 declined significantly, on average. The average number of births over the

last five years of the period (1992-93 to 1996-97), was 250 births, which is

significantly lower than the average for the first five years of the period (1987-88 to

1991-92), or 307 births. The significant decline in resident births between 1992-93

and 1996-97 has placed downward pressure on entering first grade class sizes over

the last five years. The most recent five-year period (1998-99 to 2002-03) averaged

233 births, which is lower than the 241 births occurring during the first five-year

period (1993-94 to 1997-98). In addition, in the last three years (2000-01 to 2002-

03) births to Brunswick residents declined slightly more from the most recent five-year average, averaging 233 births. However, the 2003-04 enrollment projections

will be based on the most recent five-year trends. Therefore, resident births should

continue to average about 233 births annually, although year-to-year fluctuations will

occur.

Net Preschool Migration Trends:

The net out-migration of preschool-aged children over the last five years (1999-00

to 2003-04) has been at slightly lower levels, on average, compared to what occurred

during the previous five-year period (1994-95 to 1998-99). Over the last five years,

the average level of out-migration has placed downward pressure on entering first

grade class sizes, but at a lower level than during the previous five years.

Taken together, a significant decline in the level of resident births combined

with a slight decline in the level of preschool out-migration, has resulted in entering

first grade class sizes that, on average, have declined over the last ten years.


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students were added back into the 2003-04 grade-by-grade enrollment to be projected

into future enrollment.

When reviewing historical enrollment figures, keep in mind that the grade-by-grade

enrollment figures prior to 2003-04 do notinclude Non-Mainstreamed Special Ed

students while the 2003-04 enrollment data doesinclude those students. In order toget a clearer picture of historical enrollment trends, Planning Decisions will make

note when necessary of what enrollment would have been if these students were

excluded from the grade-to-grade figures.

As far as future enrollment studies, the adjustment made to the 2003-04 projections

should be the only adjustment needed to account for the change. However, if policy

or student accounting methods are modified, then Planning Decisions may need to

make additional adjustments in the future.

! Military Dependent Students:

Military dependent students are children of military parents stationed at military

installations in Maine, such as the Brunswick Naval Air Station. The enrollment of

military dependent students is important to the Brunswick School Department

since these students do not follow a traditional path through a school system and are

often subject to relocation. Therefore, military dependent student enrollment has

the potential to significantly influence school enrollment trends in the School

Department.

Grade-to-grade data of military dependent students was unavailable prior to the 2003-

04 school year. However, total enrollment data of military dependent students in

grades K-12 was available between 1995-96 and 2003-04.

In order to project future enrollment, Planning Decisions estimated future enrollment

of military dependent students in grades K-12 as a group. These projections were

based on the assumption that the number of military dependent students will not be

significantly different from what has occurred over the last eight years.

In order to break the K-12 projections of military dependent students down by grade

grouping (K-5, 6-8, and 9-12), Planning Decisions estimated future grade grouping

enrollment based on the enrollment of military dependent students in 2003-04.

Grade-to-grade data of military dependent students was not supplied since the

historical data was insufficient to track net migration trends of these students.


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I. INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY

Change in school enrollment derives from two sources: changes in the number of births to residents

in Brunswick, and net migration of preschool and school-aged children into and out of this

community. These projections reflect both sources of change.

The projections are based on Planning Decisions in-house cohort survival model. The model

contains two steps. First, we analyze historical trends and relationships between entering class sizes

(first grade enrollment) and resident births in the year that is six years prior to the enrollment year.

Correlation coefficients (using Pearsons r-squared) are calculated for the last three, four, five, six,

seven, eight, nine and ten year periods regarding the relationship between first grade enrollment and

births. The correlation coefficients are examined to determine which period represents the statistical

best fit for projecting future first grade enrollment based on resident birth data.

Second, we analyze historical trends at each grade level. Specifically, we examine the grade-to-

grade survival ratios. These ratios represent the number of students in a grade in one year (i.e., 1st

grade in 2002-03) in relation to the number of students in the next grade the following year (i.e., 2nd

grade in 2003-04). Then we calculate correlation coefficients (using Pearsons r-squared) for the last

three, four, five, and ten year periods regarding the relationship between enrollment in a grade in one

year and the next grade the following year to determine which period represents the statistical best

fit at each of the grade levels. The grade-to-grade ratios that represent the best fit are then applied

to the current enrollment in each grade and projected first grade classes to project enrollment for the

next ten years.

Sections II through VIof this report provides historical enrollment as well a set of enrollment

projections, called the best fit model which projects enrollment through 2013-14 for each grade

and by grade group, K-5, or elementary enrollment, 6-8 or middle school enrollment, and 9-12 or

high school enrollment.

Section VII of this report presents economic conditions, population trends, and residential

development factors that may influence enrollment projections.

Section VIII contains tables which summarize enrollment projections for each grade grouping

within ranges of plus and minus 10% at the K-8 grade levels, and 5% at the 9-12 grade level for use

in planning of school facilities.

In Appendix A grade by grade historical and projected enrollment are presented for Brunswick.


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II. TOTAL K-12 ENROLLMENT OF ALL BRUNSWICK STUDENTS

The Brunswick School Department educates three different groups of students. The first group is

what Planning Decisions refers to as non-military or traditional students. These traditional

students are Brunswick resident students who follow a traditional path through a school system. The

second group of students is called military dependent students, or students who are children ofmilitary personnel stationed at the Brunswick Naval Air Station, and are students who generally do

not follow a normal path through a school system as a result of their parents employment requiring

frequent relocation. The third group of students is choice tuition students from the Town of Durham

who attend the Brunswick High School. These students are residents of the Town of Durham who

choose to attend high school in Brunswick.

Table II-1shows the historical distribution of total K-12 enrollment in Brunswick between non-

military, military dependent and Durham tuition student enrollment. Historical total K-12

enrollment in Brunswick ranged between 2,980 and 3,243 students between 1993-94 and 1996-97.

Following 1996-97, total enrollment increased to range between 3,321 and 3,361 students through

2003-04. Brunswicks military dependent enrollment has remained fairly consistent since 1995-96, and accounted for about 18% to 21% of total K-12 enrollment in Brunswick. However, Durham

tuition student enrollment has increased from account for about 2% to 3% of K-12 enrollment

between 1993-94 and 1998-99, to account for about 4% to 6% of total K-12 enrollment in

Brunswick.

Table II-1 - Historical K-12 Enrollment, 1993-94 to 2003-04

Brunswick School Department

School

Year

Brunswick, Non-Military

(K-12)

Brunswick Military

(K-12)

Durham Tuition

Students (9-12) Total

# % # % # %

1993-94 2,920 98.0% 60 2.0% 2,980

1994-95 2,951 98.1% 58 1.9% 3,009

1995-96 2,397 76.5% 662 21.1% 76 2.4% 3,135

1996-97 2,504 77.2% 665 20.5% 74 2.3% 3,243

1997-98 2,546 77.1% 671 20.3% 85 2.6% 3,302

1998-99 2,609 77.8% 640 19.1% 104 3.1% 3,353

1999-00 2,606 78.4% 596 17.9% 122 3.7% 3,324

2000-01 2,578 77.6% 595 17.9% 148 4.5% 3,321

2001-02 2,523 75.3% 652 19.5% 176 5.3% 3,351

2002-03 2,552 75.9% 643 19.1% 166 4.9% 3,361

2003-04 2,498 74.8% 657 19.7% 186 5.6% 3,341

Source:October 1 stEnrollment Reports, data for Military students provided by Brunswick Schoo l Department


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Brunswick FINAL Enrollment Report 2003-04 04-508 5-19-2004.wpd - May, 2004 Page 11

In order to provide the Brunswick School Department with comprehensive enrollment projections,

Planning Decisions investigated historical enrollment trends for each group of students. However,

while the grade-to-grade data for military dependent students was unavailable for 1993-94 to 2002-

03, total K-12 enrollment data from 1995-96 through 2003-04, and grade-to-grade for 2003-04 was

available for these military dependent students. Since, the grade-to-grade data prior to 2003-04

was estimated by the Brunswick School Department based on the total K-12 data and the 2003-04grade-to-grade data, Planning Decisions was unable to provide a detailed analysis of historical trends

and grade-to-grade net migration. However, based on the total K-12 enrollment, Planning Decisions

was able to provide an estimate of future military dependent students based on the overall

historical K-12 enrollment of these students and the grade-to-grade enrollment of all Brunswick

residents. The enrollment of all Brunswick residents was then reduced by the estimated enrollment

of military dependents in order to determine potential enrollment of non-military or traditional

students. While this is an imperfect measure of historical and future enrollment in Brunswick, it

should provide the Brunswick School Department with reasonable estimates of future enrollment

trends for school planning purposes.

In speaking with personnel at the Brunswick Naval Air Station (BNAS) about military dependentstudents, Planning Decisions learned that there is room for expansion and the possibility of the base

becoming smaller are low. Recently, the Maine National Guard has talked about relocating to

BNAS which would increase personnel at the base. However, other major increases in personnel

are not on the horizon at this time. The potential for influx will be more definite by the end of the

2004 summer.

There was a dip (or a loss of 44 students from the 1998-99 to the 1999-00 school year) in the

1999-00 and 2000-01 military dependent student enrollment in Brunswicks schools because 224

military housing units were taken offline at the time for rebuilding. Since that time, seventy-two (72)

3 and 4-bedroom units were completed in 2001, and another 126 units (majority 2-bedrooms) are

currently being built. All 72 units are occupied and roughly half of the 126 units are occupied, whichaccounts for the recent upswing in military dependent students enrolled at Brunswicks schools.

Additionally, 22 units (14 are 4-bedroom units and 8 are 3-bedroom units) will be added by next

year.

There are currently 177 military units (40 are 2-bedroom units and the rest are 3 to 4-bedroom units)

in Topsham that will be rebuilt to 150 units in the next few years. However, it is unknown whether

this housing will stay in Topsham, whether some of it will stay in Topsham and some move to

Brunswick, or if all of it will move to Brunswick.

Based on our conversations with BNAS, and on total K-12 enrollment trends of military dependent

students, Planning Decisions will assume the Brunswick School Department will continue to

experience an enrollment of approximated 660 military dependent students in grades K-12.


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III. FIRST GRADE ENROLLMENT OF ALL BRUNSWICK STUDENTS

A. Historical Entering First Grade Enrollment

First grade enrollment of all Brunswick students over the last ten years (1994-95 to 2003-04),

has declined, on average. During this ten-year period, first grade enrollment ranged between a lowof 209 students in 2001-02, and a high of 294 students in 1994-95, with an average enrollment of

258 students. The average first grade enrollment over the last five years (1999-00 to 2003-04), was

241 students, which is lower than the average during the first five years (1994-95 to 1998-99), or 274

students. (See Table III-1 and Figure III-2).

Included in these figures are military dependent students and all other Brunswick

resident students. In 2003-04, out of the 264 Brunswick resident students in the first grade, 82

students (or 31.1% of all first grade students) were military dependent students.

Table III-1 - Relationship of Entering First Grade Class Size to Resident Births

All Brunswick Resident Students

Birth Year(Oct. 15 - Oct. 14)

# of Births 1stGrade Year1stGrade

Enrollment

Ratio

1st/Births

1987-88 306 1994-95 294 0.961

1988-89 308 1995-96 252 0.818

1989-90 330 1996-97 292 0.885

1990-91 280 1997-98 261 0.932

1991-92 312 1998-99 271 0.869

1992-93 271 1999-00 262 0.9671993-94 209 2000-01 219 1.048

1994-95 265 2001-02 209 0.789

1995-96 262 2002-03 252 0.962

1996-97 242 2003-04 264 1.091

1996-97 242 2003-04 255 1.054

5 Yr Avg. (88-92) 307 5 Yr Avg. (94-98) 274 0.893

5 Yr Avg. (93-97) 250 5 Yr Avg. (99-03) 241 0.971

10 Yr Avg. (88-97) 279 10 Yr Avg. (94-03) 258 0.932

Note:Enrollment figures from 1994-95 to 2002-03 do not include Non-Mainstreamed Special Education students and

all years do not in clude special education students p laced outside of the district. The shaded area indicates enrollment

which was adjusted to account for the change in the way Non-Mainstreamed Special Education Students were

accounted for between 2002-03 and 2003-04.

Sources: Births - Office of Data, Research, and Vital Statistics; Maine Department of Human Resources; 1stGrade

Enrollment - October 1 st, Enrollment Reports. All else calculated by Planning Decisions, Inc.


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B. Factors Influencing Entering First Grade Class Size

The size of the first grade class is influenced by two factors: the number of births to residents

of a community six years prior to the enrollment year; and, the level of net migration of preschool-

aged children (number of preschool-aged children moving into a community minus the number of

preschool-aged children moving out) during the first grade enrollment year and the year that was sixyears prior. The level of preschool migration can be measured by the ratio of enrollment for the

entering first grade class to the number of births to residents in the year that was six years prior.

1. Resident Birth Levels

Birth levels among Brunswick residents during the ten-year period of 1987-88 to

1996-97, declined significantly, on average. The average number of births over the last five

years of the period (1992-93 to 1996-97), was 250 births, which is significantly lower than

the average for the first five years of the period (1987-88 to 1991-92), or 307 births. The

significant decline in resident births between 1992-93 and 1996-97 has placed

downward pressure on entering first grade class sizes over the last five years. (SeeTable III-1 and Figure III-1).

2. Net Preschool Migration

In the first five years of the last decade (1994-95 to 1998-99), Brunswick experienced

an average net out-migration of preschool-aged children, with an average net migration ratio

of 0.893. In the past five years (1999-00 to 2003-04), Brunswick, experienced a slightly

lower level of net out-migration of preschool-aged children, with an average net out-

migration ratio of 0.971. Over the last five years, the average level of out-migration has

continued to place downward pressure on entering first grade class sizes, but at a lower

level than experienced during the previous five years. (See Table III-1).

Taken together, a significant decline in the level of resident births combined

with a slight decline in the level of preschool out-migration, has resulted in entering

first grade class sizes that, on average, have declined over the last ten years.


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C. Recent Birth Trends

Between 1993-94 and 2002-03, the number of births to residents of Brunswick has, on

average, declined. Over the last ten-year period (1993-94 to 2002-03), births to residents of

Brunswick averaged 237 births annually, ranging from a low of 209 births to a high of 265 births.

The most recent five-year period (1998-99 to 2002-03) averaged 233 births, which is lower than the241 births occurring during the first five-year period (1993-94 to 1997-98). In addition, in the last

three years (2000-01 to 2002-03) births to Brunswick residents declined slightly more from the most

recent five-year average, averaging 233 births. However, the 2003-04 enrollment projections will

be based on the most recent five-year trends. Therefore, resident births should continue to average

about 233 births annually, although year-to-year fluctuations will occur. In the surrounding region

of Cumberland County, the number of births has declined slightly over the last ten years. Therefore,

both Brunswick and Cumberland County has experienced a slight decline in resident births over the

last ten years. (See Table III-2 and Figure III-1).

Table III-2 -Trends in Resident Births - 1993-94 to 2002-03

Town of Brunswick vs. Cumberland County


All Brunswick Residents Cumberland County

1993-94 209 3,152

1994-95 265 3,046

1995-96 262 3,029

1996-97 242 3,030

1997-98 227 3,005

1998-99 252 2,967

1999-00 pre 243 2,977

2000-01 pre 219 3,033

2001-02 pre 220 2,918

2002-03 pre 229 3,074

10 Yr Avg. (94-03) 237 3,023

5 Yr Avg. (94-98) 241 3,052

5 Yr Avg. (99-03) 233 2,994

3 Yr Avg. (01-03) 223 3,008

Source:Office of Data, Research, and V ital Statistics; Maine Department of Human Resources, 2000 to 2003 births

are p reliminary.


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Figure III-1


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D. Projections of Entering First Grade Class Sizes

Planning Decisions best fit model is based on resident birth levels in Brunswick between

1998-99 and 2002-03, and on a continuation of an out-migration of preschool-aged children similar

to the level of out-migration that occurred over the last five years.

Under the best fit model, Planning Decisions projects that Brunswick should experience

an average first grade enrollment of 225 students over the next ten years. In addition, first grade

enrollment should range between 212 and 244 students through 2013-14. (See Table III-3 and

Figure III-2).

These figures include military dependent students. An estimated 75 to 85 military

dependent students are projected to be in each first grade class in each year.

Table III-3 - Projected First Grade Enrollment, 2004-05 to 2013-14



# of Births 1stGrade YearBest Fit

Model

Ratio

1st/Births

1997-98 227 2004-05 220 0.969

1998-99 252 2005-06 244 0.968

1999-00 pre 243 2006-07 236 0.971

2000-01 pre 219 2007-08 212 0.968

2001-02 pre 220 2008-09 213 0.968

2002-03 pre 229 2009-10 222 0.969

2003-04* 233 2010-11 226 0.970

2004-05* 233 2011-12 226 0.970

2005-06* 233 2012-13 226 0.970

2006-07* 233 2013-14 226 0.970

5 Yr Avg. 99-03 233 10 Yr Avg. 04-13 225


Sources: Births 1997-2003 - Office of Data, Research, and Vital Statistics; Maine Department of Human Resources,

2000 to 20 03 births are preliminary. *2003-04 to 20 06-07 births estimated by Planning Decisions based on average

bir ths between 1998-99-2002-03. 1stGrade Enrollment - Projected by Plan ning Decisions, Inc.


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Figure III-2


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IV. ELEMENTARY SCHOOL ENROLLMENT (K-5)

The elementary level in Brunswick consists of Kindergarten through the fifth grade.

A. Historical Enrollment

At the Kindergarten through fifth grade level, since 1993-94, enrollment of all Brunswick

students ranged between 1,552 and 1,592 students through 1998-99. Following 1998-99, enrollment

began to decline, ranging between 1,371 and 1,464 students through 2003-04. (See Table IV-1 and

Figure IV-1).

These figures include military dependent students and all other Brunswick resident

students. In 2003-04, out of the 1,445 Brunswick resident students in grades K-5, 385 students

(or 26.6% of all K-5 students) were military dependent students.

Table IV-1 - Historical Elementary Enrollment (K-5) - 1993-94 to 2003-04


School

Year

Grade Total

K-5K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th

1993-94 306 290 258 250 253 235 1,592

1994-95 254 294 270 263 245 261 1,587

1995-96 283 252 268 271 250 242 1,566

1996-97 264 292 258 255 269 248 1,586

1997-98 285 261 259 259 271 243 1,578

1998-99 266 271 236 245 259 275 1,552

1999-00 221 262 260 238 241 242 1,464

2000-01 223 219 275 244 238 240 1,439

2001-02 250 209 214 244 224 231 1,372

2002-03 218 252 217 209 255 220 1,371

2003-04 219 264 247 235 211 269 1,445

2003-04* 211 255 240 226 203 258 1,393

Note: Enrollment figures from 1994- 95 to 2002-03 do not include Non-Mains treamed Special Education students, andall years do not include special education students placed outside of the district. The shaded area indicates enrollment

adjusted to account for the change in the way Non-Mainstreamed Special Education students were accounted for

be tween 2002 -03 and 20 03-04 .

Source: October 1 stEnrollment Reports


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Figure IV-1


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V. MIDDLE SCHOOL ENROLLMENT (6-8)

The middle school level in Brunswick consists of the sixth through the eighth grade.


Enrollment in the sixth through eighth grade for all Brunswick residents increased from 664

students in 1993-94, reaching 762 students in 2001-02. Following 2001-02, enrollment began to

decline, reaching 736 students in 2003-04, or 665 students if the change in the way Non-

Mainstreamed Special Education students are accounted for is taken into consideration. (See Table

V-1 and Figure V-1).


students. In 2003-04, out of the 736 Brunswick resident students in grades 6-8, 151 students (or

20.5% of all 6-8 students) were military dependent students.

Table V-1 - Historical Middle School Enrollment (6-8) - 1993-94 to 2003-04


School

Year

Grade Total

(6-8)6th 7th 8th

1993-94 236 222 206 664

1994-95 234 236 211 681

1995-96 250 244 230 724

1996-97 242 249 238 729

1997-98 242 234 230 706

1998-99 232 241 247 720

1999-00 259 235 237 731

2000-01 242 261 229 732

2001-02 247 249 266 762

2002-03 228 242 233 703

2003-04 252 240 244 736

2003-04 224 217 224 665

Note: Enrollment figures from 19 94-95 to 2 002-0 3 do not include Non-Mai nstreamed Sp ecial Education students, and

all years do no t include special education students placed outside of the district. The shaded area indicates enrollment

adjusted to account for the change in the way Non-Mainstreamed Special Education students were accounted for

be tween 2002 -03 and 20 03-04 .



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Figure V-1


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Over the next ten years, enrollment of military dependent students is estimated to continue

at a level of about 660 students in grades K-12. This enrollment was estimated providing that the

number of military personnel stationed at the Brunswick Naval Air Station is not significantly

impacted. Therefore, in grades 6-8, military dependent students should account for about 152

students in grades 6-8 each year. Interestingly, if the number of military dependent students

remains fairly stable over the next ten years, the number of non-military Brunswick residents willdecline from 599 students in 2004-05, reaching 452 students by 2013-14. (See Table V-3).

Table V-3 - Projected Middle School Enrollment (6-8) - 2004-05 to 2013-14

All Brunswick Resident Students - Best Fit Model

School

Year

6-8 Enrollment Total

(6-8)Non-Military Military

2003-04* 585 151 736

2004-05 599 152 751

2005-06 566 152 718

2006-07 542 152 694

2007-08 507 152 659

2008-09 544 152 696

2009-10 519 152 671

2010-11 513 152 665

2011-12 488 152 640

2012-13 480 152 632

2013-14 452 152 604

Note: Enrollment figures do not include sp ecial education students placed outside of the district.

Sources: *2003-04 - actual enrollment, October 1st Enrollment Reports; all other years - projected by Planning

Decisions, Inc.


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VI. HIGH SCHOOL ENROLLMENT (9-12)

The high school level in Brunswick includes the ninth through twelfth grade, and students in these

grades attend the Brunswick High School.


Between 1993-94 and 2003-04, overall enrollment at the high school increased from 645

students in 1993-94 to reach 813 students by 1996-97. Following 1996-97, enrollment increased

further, to range between 859 and 974 students through 2003-04. (See Table VI-1 and Figure VI-1).


students. In 2003-04, out of the 974 Brunswick resident students in grades 9-12, 121 students (or

10.4% of all 9-12 students) were military dependent students.

Table VI-1 - Historical High School Enrollment (9-12) - 1993-94 to 2003-04


School

Year

Grade Total

(9-12)9th 10th 11th 12th

1993-94 182 167 133 163 645

1994-95 201 179 151 129 660

1995-96 222 202 166 155 745

1996-97 246 210 185 172 813

1997-98 282 219 197 165 863

1998-99 254 264 206 184 908

1999-00 251 245 236 195 927

2000-01 254 240 217 212 923

2001-02 228 222 222 187 859

2002-03 287 243 224 212 966

2003-04 267 273 224 210 974

2003-04* 259 265 216 202 942

Note: Enrollment figures between 1994-95 and 2002-03 do not include Non-Mainstreamed Special Education students,and all years do not include special education students placed outside of the district. The shaded ar ea indicates

enrollment which was adjusted to account for the change in the way Non-Mainstreamed Special Education students

were accounted for between 2002-03 and 2003-04.



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B. Best Fit Projections

Under the best fit model, Planning Decisions projects that enrollment of all Brunswick

students at the high school in Brunswick will remain similar to the current enrollment of 974

students, ranging between 942 and 976 students through 2007-08. Following 2007-08, enrollment

will begin to decline reaching 849 students by 2013-14. (See Table VI-2 and Figure VI-1).

These figures include military dependent students. An estimated 121 military


Table VI-2 - Projected High School Enrollment (9-12) - 2004-05 to 2013-14


School

Year

Grade Total

(9-12)9th 10th 11th 12th

2003-04* 267 273 224 210 974

2004-05 260 254 252 210 976

2005-06 248 248 234 236 966

2006-07 259 236 228 219 942

2007-08 275 247 217 214 953

2008-09 214 262 227 203 906

2009-10 236 203 242 213 894

2010-11 238 224 187 226 875

2011-12 252 226 207 175 8602012-13 210 239 209 193 851

2013-14 233 200 221 195 849



Decisions, Inc.


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Figure VI-1


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Over the next ten years, enrollment of military dependent students is estimated to continue

at a level of about 660 students in grades K-12. This enrollment was estimated providing that the

number of military personnel stationed at the Brunswick Naval Air Station is not significantly

impacted. Therefore, in grades 9-12, military students should account for about 121 students in

grades 9-12 each year. Interestingly, if the number of military dependent students remains fairly

stable over the next ten years, the number of non-military Brunswick residents will remain similarto the current enrollment of 853 students, ranging between 821 and 855 students through 2007-08.

Following 2007-08, enrollment of non-military Brunswick students will begin to decline, reaching

728 students by 2013-14. (See Table VI-3 and Figure VI-2).



School

Year

9-12 Enrollment Total


2003-04* 853 121 974

2004-05 855 121 976

2005-06 845 121 966

2006-07 821 121 942

2007-08 832 121 953

2008-09 785 121 906

2009-10 773 121 894

2010-11 754 121 875

2011-12 739 121 860

2012-13 730 121 851

2013-14 728 121 849



Decisions, Inc.


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Figure VI-2


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C. Durham Choice Tuition Student Enrollment

1. Historical Enrollment of Durham Choice Tuition Students in Brunswick

Between 1993-94 and 1997-98, overall enrollment of Durham choice tuition students

at the high school ranged between 58 and 85 students. Following 1997-98, enrollmentincreased to reach 186 students by 2003-04. (See Table VI-4 and Figure VI-3).


Durham Choice Tuition Students

School

Year

Grade Total

(9-12)9th 10th 11th 12th

1993-94 10 12 20 18 60

1994-95 19 9 10 20 581995-96 32 18 16 10 76

1996-97 23 23 16 12 74

1997-98 26 25 19 15 85

1998-99 35 24 24 21 104

1999-00 38 34 27 23 122

2000-01 44 39 43 22 148

2001-02 51 47 41 37 176

2002-03 44 50 42 30 166

2003-04 54 46 50 36 186

Note: Enrollment figures d o not include special education students placed outside of the district.



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Durham students in grades 9-12 can choose to attend the Brunswick High School.

Over the last ten years, the share of Durham students choosing to attend the Brunswick High

School increased significantly, from 35% to 52% of Durham students choosing to attend the

Brunswick High School between 1993-94 and 1997-98, to range between 60% and 72%

through 2001-02. However, over the last two years, the total number of Durham students

choosing to attend the Brunswick High School has increased further to reach about 80 to84%. (See Table VI-5).


Durham Resident Students

School

Year

All Durham ResidentsDurham Students Tuitioned

to Brunswick

Grade Total

(9-12)

Total

(9-12)% of Total

9th 10th 11th 12th

1993-94 51 44 35 33 163 60 36.8%

1994-95 46 43 41 35 165 58 35.2%

1995-96 42 46 47 37 172 76 44.2%

1996-97 36 41 41 35 153 74 48.4%

1997-98 48 38 36 39 161 85 52.8%

1998-99 58 48 40 33 179 104 58.1%

1999-00 57 62 48 36 203 122 60.1%

2000-01 54 61 63 43 221 148 67.0%

2001-02 63 61 69 52 245 176 71.8%

2002-03 52 56 54 47 209 166 79.4%

2003-04 60 54 57 51 222 186 83.8%

Note: Enrollment figures d o not include special education students placed outside of the district.



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2. Best Fit Projections of all Durham Resident Students

Planning Decisions best fit model for Durham residents is based on resident birth

levels in Durham between 2000-01 and 2002-03, and on an in-migration of preschool-aged

children similar to the level of in-migration that occurred over the last five years, with the

exception of the 2004-05 first grade class which is based on the 2003-04 Kindergartenenrollment.

Under the best fit model, Planning Decisions projects that enrollment of all

Durham students will remain similar to the current enrollment of 222 students, ranging

between 213 and 226 students through 2013-14. (See Table VI-6 and Figure VI-3).


All Durham Resident Students - Best Fit Model

SchoolYear

Grade Total(9-12)9th 10th 11th 12th

2003-04* 60 54 57 51 222

2004-05 58 60 53 50 221

2005-06 54 59 60 47 220

2006-07 54 55 58 52 219

2007-08 59 55 54 51 219

2008-09 58 59 54 47 218

2009-10 50 59 59 48 216

2010-11 60 51 58 52 221

2011-12 53 60 50 51 214

2012-13 56 54 59 44 213

2013-14 65 56 53 52 226



Decisions, Inc.


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3. Best Fit Projections of Durham Choice Tuition Students in Brunswick

The projection of Durhams choice tuition enrollment in Brunswick was first based

on the best fit projections of all Durham resident students. Then, the projections of choice

tuition students assume Durham students will continue to choose to attend the Brunswick

High School at the same rate as they have over the last two years. In addition, the projectionsof choice tuition students do not account for circumstances which could impact choice tuition

enrollment; which includes but is not limited to, the Town of Durham choosing to send all

Durham students to the Lisbon High School, School Union 30 forming a School

Administrative District, or Brunswick entering into a contract with the Town of Durham to

receive a maximum or minimum percentage of all Durham resident students.

Based in the best fit model and the two-year trend of choice tuition, Planning

Decisions projects that enrollment of Durham choice tuition students will remain similar to

the current enrollment of 186 students, ranging between 176 and 185 students through 2013-

14. (See Table VI-7 and Figure VI-3).


Durham Choice Tuition Students in Brunswick - Best Fit Model

School

Year

Grade Total

(9-12)9th 10th 11th 12th

2003-04* 54 46 50 36 186

2004-05 51 53 44 34 182

2005-06 47 51 50 32 180

2006-07 48 48 48 35 179

2007-08 52 48 45 34 179

2008-09 51 52 45 32 180

2009-10 44 51 49 32 176

2010-11 52 44 48 35 179

2011-12 47 52 42 34 175

2012-13 49 47 49 30 175

2013-14 57 49 44 35 185Note: Enrollment figures do not include sp ecial education students placed outside of the district.


Decisions, Inc.


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Figure VI-3


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D. Enrollment of All Students at the Brunswick High School

Over the last ten years, enrollment at the Brunswick High School increased from 705 students

in 1993-94 to reach 1,161 students by 2003-04. Over the next ten years, enrollment of all students

attending the Brunswick High School will decline slightly from the current enrollment of 1,161

students, to range between 1,121 and 1,158 students through 2007-08. Following 2007-08,enrollment will decline, to range between 1,026 and 1,086 students through 2013.14. (See Table VI-

8 and Figure VI-4).


All Students at the Brunswick High School - Best Fit Model

School

Year

Brunswick 9-12 Enrollment Durham Choice

Tuition Students

(9-12)

Total All

Students


1993-94 645 60 705

1994-95 660 58 718

1995-96 624 121 76 821

1996-97 692 121 74 887

1997-98 740 123 85 948

1998-99 791 117 104 1,012

1999-00 817 110 122 1,049

2000-01 813 110 148 1,071

2001-02 738 121 176 1,035

2002-03 847 119 166 1,132

2003-04* 853 121 187 1,161

2004-05 855 121 182 1,158

2005-06 845 121 180 1,146

2006-07 821 121 179 1,121

2007-08 832 121 179 1,132

2008-09 785 121 180 1,086

2009-10 773 121 176 1,070

2010-11 754 121 179 1,054

2011-12 739 121 175 1,035

2012-13 730 121 175 1,026

2013-14 728 121 185 1,034

Note: Enrollment figures from 1993-94 to 2002-03 do n ot include Non-Mainstreamed Special Education students

placed outside o f the distr ict, and all years do not include specia l ed ucat ion students p lac ed outside of the distric t.


Decisions, Inc.


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Figure VI-4


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VII. ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, POPULATION

TRENDS, AND RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AND THEIR

RELATION TO SCHOOL ENROLLMENT

Future school enrollment in Brunswick will be impacted by past, current, and future trends in

population, housing development, and economic conditions. With the growth of a population and

development of new homes comes the potential for new students in the school system. Because

school enrollment is impacted by residential development, Planning Decisions analyzed development

trends in Brunswick. This information is then used to test whether the best fit cohort survival

enrollment projections adequately reflect potential future economic and residential development

trends.

A. Economic Trends

1. Where People Work

Census commuting data provides a snapshot of where people living in Brunswick

worked in 1990 and 2000. (See Table VII-1).Based on the 2000 Census, there were 10,067

Brunswick resident workers in 2000 (people who reside in Brunswick and either work in

Brunswick or commute to work in another community), a loss of 271 workers or decline of

2.6% over the decade. In 1990, 79.2% of Brunswicks workers commuted to communities

in the Bath-Brunswick Labor Market Area (LMA), and in 2000 that figure declined with

only 72.4% of Brunswicks workers commuting to the LMA. The Portland Metropolitan

Statistical Area (MSA) was the second largest recipient of Brunswick resident workers with

15.4% in 1990 to 17.1% in 2000. In addition, all other areas received 10.5% of Brunswicks

commuters in 2000, compared to 5.4% in 1990. This shift is indicative of Brunswicks

residents looking outside of the communities in their LMA, (Bath-Brunswick LMA), forwork.

In 2000, the Bath-Brunswick LMA(which includes the communities of Durham,

Brunswick, Harpswell, New Gloucester, Pownal, Dresden, Arrowsic, Bath, Bowdoin,

Bowdoinham, Georgetown, Perkins Township, Phippsburg, Topsham, West Bath,

Woolwich, Richmond, Alna, Edgecomb, Wiscasset, and Westport Island) was the largest

recipient of Brunswick workers with 72.4% of all Brunswicks resident workers. Within the

LMA, the Town of Brunswick received the largest number of Brunswicks commuters with

53.6%, while the City of Bath was the second largest recipient with 11.4% of commuters,

and the Town of Topsham was the third largest recipient with 4.5%. Interestingly, from 1990

to 2000 there was a slight shift within the LMA. The percentage of Brunswick residentworkers commuting to Brunswick, declined from 61.9% in 1990 to 53.6% in 2000, while

both the City of Bath and the Town of Topsham increased their percentage share.

In 2000, the Portland MSA(which includes the communities of Cape Elizabeth,

Casco, Cumberland, Falmouth, Freeport, Gorham, Gray, North Brunswick, Long Island,


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Portland, Raymond, Scarborough, South Portland, Standish, Westbrook, Windham,

Yarmouth, Frye Island, Buxton, Hollis Limington, and Old Orchard Beach) was the second

largest recipient of Brunswick workers with 17.1% of all Brunswicks resident workers.

Within the MSA, the City of Portland received the largest number of Brunswicks

commuters with 6.3%, while the Town of Freeport was the second largest recipient with

4.7% of commuters.

Table VII-1 - 1990 and 2000 U.S. Census Commuting Data

Town of Brunswick

Total Resident

Workers

1990 2000

10,338% of Total

Resident Workers10,067

% of Total

Resident Workers

Place of Work

Bath-Brunswick LMA 8,185 79.2% 7,289 72.4%

Brunswick 6,397 61.9% 5,391 53.6%

Bath 1,116 10.8% 1,150 11.4%

Topsham 356 3.4% 451 4.5%

Portland MSA 1,597 15.4% 1,722 17.1%

Portland 732 7.1% 638 6.3%

Freeport 459 4.4% 474 4.7%

All Other Areas 556 5.4% 1,056 10.5%

Source:1990 and 2000 U.S. Commuting Data

Based on this analysis, the economic health of Brunswick is strongly tied to theBath-Brunswick LMA and the Portland MSA.


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2. Regional Employment Levels

Table VII-2presents trends in wage and salary employment in the Labor Market

Areas that strongly influence Brunswick. The Bath-Brunswick LMAexperienced a 6.4%

increase in the number of jobs from 30,050 in 1997 to 31,980 jobs in 2002, adding 1,930

jobs. Additionally, the Portland MSAexperienced an 8.2% increase in the number of jobsfrom 144,230 jobs in 1997 to 156,100 jobs in 2002, adding 11,870 jobs. The Bath-

Brunswick LMA experienced a rate in growth that was slower than the State of Maine,

while the Portland MSA experienced a rate of growth that was similar to the State.

Combined, the job growth in the Bath-Brunswick LMA and the Portland MSA accounted

for about 30% of the total job growth in the State.

Table VII-2 - Trends in Total Non-farm Wage and Salary Employment, 1997-2002

Labor Market Areas Influencing Brunswick vs. State of Maine

Labor Market Area 1997 2002 # change % change

Bath-Brunswick LMA 30,050 31,980 1,930 6.4%

Portland MSA 144,230 156,100 11,870 8.2%

LMAs Combined 174,280 188,080 13,800 7.9%

Maine Total 559,210 606,570 47,360 8.5%

Source:Maine Department of Labor, Division of Economic Analysis and Research.


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The Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Southern Maine

recently completed employment forecasts for Maine through 2025. The data takes into

account the brief 2001-2002 recession, but does not forecast additional recessions. The

model forecasts more rapid in-migration to Maine than earlier forecasts, and uses the 2000

Census and the preliminary 2001 population estimates. Table VII-3presents employment

forecast for Cumberland County and the State.

In 2004, Cumberland Countys total employment (including wage and salary

employment, and self employment) is estimated to be 222,773 workers. Total employment

in Cumberland County is forecast to grow by 30,629 jobs to a level of 253,402 by the year

2024, an increase of 13.7%. This increase in employment is similar to that forecast for the

State as a whole, or 14%, and accounts for about 27% of the total growth in the State of

Maine during the period.

Table VII-3 - Total Employment Forecasts, 2004, 2014, & 2024

Cumberland County vs. State of Maine

Area 2004 2014 2024

Change

2004-14 2014-24 2004-24

# % # % # %

Total Employment

Cumberland

County222,773 240,704 253,402 17,931 8.0% 12,698 5.3% 30,629 13.7%

State 808,959 874,878 922,374 65,919 8.1% 47,496 5.4% 113,415 14.0%

Source: University of Southern Maine, Center for Business and Economic Research, 2002 Long-Range Economic

Forecasts.

Note:Employment data includes wage and salary employment, and self-employment and farm employment.

Taken together, the employment trend data indicates the job growth over the last five

years in the Bath-Brunswick LMA has been lower than the levels experienced Statewide, while

job growth in the Portland MSA has been similar to the State. Over the next 20 years job

growth in Cumberland County is projected to continue growing at levels which are similar to

the Statewide average. Therefore, based on this data it appears that employment in and

around Brunswick will mostly likely continue to grow as the State of Maine grows. However,

if something occurs which has an impact on the employment growth in the State of Maine, it

will mostly likely have a similar impact on the employment of Brunswick residents.


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B. Population Trends

Table VII-4presents the population trends for the community of Brunswick in comparison

to Cumberland County and the State of Maine. In 1990, Brunswicks total population was 20,906

people. Total population in Brunswick increased by 266 people, or by 1.3%, to reach a total of

21,172 people in the year 2000. Cumberland County also experienced an increase in population butby 9.2%, a much faster rate in comparison to the Town of Brunswick. In addition, Brunswick

experienced an increase in total population which was slower than the State as a whole, which

increased by 3.8%.

The population of Brunswick who are under 18 years of age was 4,845 in 1990. By 2000,

that figure increased only slightly by 0.5%, for a gain of 26 children. Looking at Cumberland

County, the population of people under 18 years of age increased by 8.8%, while the State of Maine

actually declined by 2.5%. Therefore, Brunswicks under 18 population remained fairly stable while

Cumberland Countys increased, and the State of Maines under 18 population declined.

The population of Brunswick who are between 5 and 17 years of age was 3,306 in 1990. By2000, that figure increased by 7.6% to 3,558, or a gain of 252 children. It is important to note that

while the 5 to 17 population in Brunswick increased by 252 children, the total of the under 18

population increased by only 26 children, meaning while the school-aged population in Brunswick

increased, the population of infants to 4-year-olds declined. In addition, this decline in the infant to

4-year-old population will have an impact on future enrollment in Brunswick. Looking at

Cumberland County, the population of people 5 to 17 years of age increased by 16.2%, while the

State of Maine only increased by 3.2%. Therefore, Brunswicks ages 5 to 17 population increased

at a faster rate than the State of Maine and a slower rate than Cumberland County.

When we look at the population of women who are 18 to 44 years of age, or the population

of fertile females, in 1990 there were 4,690 fertile females in Brunswick. By 2000, that figuredeclined by 7.2% to 4,351, for a loss of 339 fertile females. Looking at Cumberland County, the

population of fertile females declined by 4.1%, and the State of Maine declined by 8.1%. Therefore,

Brunswicks fertile female population declined at a faster rate than Cumberland County and a slower

rate than the State of Maines fertile female population.

In addition, we looked at the population of women who are generally considered past their

fertile age, or women who are 45 years of age or older. In the 45 years of age or older age group,

Brunswick experienced a significant increase in this population group compared to other population

groups, experiencing a gain of 21.1%. Between 1990 and 2000, the population of women who are

45 years of age or older increased from 3,531 women in 1990, to reach 4,276 women in 2000, this

was a gain of 745 women over the ten-year period. The increase in this population group would help

to explain the decline in the infant to 4-year-old population while the school-age population

increased. When looking at Cumberland County, the population of women who are 45 years of age

or also increased significantly, by 25.2%, or gaining 10,739 women during the period. In addition,

the State of Maine experienced a significant increase (22.7%) during the period, gaining 49,479

females who where 45 years of age or older.


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The implication for this data in the Town of Brunswick is that the growth of the female

population, appears to be from women who have matured past the generally accepted age of fertility.

However, while the population of females who are 45 years of age or older increased, Brunswicks

total female population in 2000 consisted of more fertile females than females who were 45 years

of age or older. In addition, the fertile female population declined over the ten-year period.

Therefore, if the growth in the female population continues to be from women who are past thegenerally accepted age of fertility, the result of this aging female population will be that fewer

children will be born, children who would have attended schools in Brunswick in the future. The

decline in the fertile female population will most likely continue to be the trend in Brunswick unless

something occurs to either reverse or slow this trend. Therefore, barring any changes in the local and

regional economy which may have an impact on the age group of people moving to Brunswick, this

trend will likely continue, and will contribute to either a stabilization or possibly a decline in the

school-aged population in the future.

Table VII-4 - Population Trends, 1990 - 2000

Town of Brunswick vs. Cumberland County & State of Maine

Area 1990 20001990-00

# %

Total Population

Brunswick 20,906 21,172 266 1.3%

Cumberland County 243,135 265,612 22,477 9.2%

State 1,227,928 1,274,923 46,995 3.8%

Population Age Under 18

Brunswick 4,845 4,871 26 0.5%


State 309,002 301,238 (7,764) -2.5%

Population 5 to 17 Years of Age

Brunswick 3,306 3,558 252 7.6%


State 223,280 230,512 7,232 3.2%

Fertile Female Population (18 to 44 years of age)

Brunswick 4,690 4,351 (339) -7.2%

Cumberland County 55,930 53,660 (2,270) -4.1%

State 262,072 240,816 (21,256) -8.1%

Female Population (45+ years of age)

Brunswick 3,531 4,276 745 21.1%


State 217,644 267,123 49,479 22.7%

Source: 1990 and 2000 U .S. Census.


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C. Residential Development Trends

Trends in housing development are influenced by national and regional economic trends as

well as local land-use policies. Two sets of data are used to examine residential development trends

in Brunswick, the U.S. Census and local new housing unit data.

1. U.S. Census Data

In 1980, according to the U.S. Census, there was a total of 6,083 year-round housing

units in Brunswick. (See Table VII-5). By 1990, total year-round housing units had

increased to 8,012 units, an increase of 31.7% (1,929 units) in the decade, or an average of

193 new units per year. The percentage increase in Brunswick during this period was greater

than the increase for Cumberland County (20.1%), and for the State of Maine (16.8%).

In 1990, according to the U.S. Census, there was a total of 8,012 year-round housing

units in Brunswick. By 2000, total year-round housing units had increased to 8,500 units,

an increase of 6.1% (488 units) in the decade, or an average of 49 new units per year. Thepercentage increase in Brunswick during this period was less than the increase for

Cumberland County (12.2%), and the State of Maine (10.3%).

In addition, over the twenty-year period between 1980 and 2000, total year-round

housing units in Brunswick had increased by 39.7% (2,417 units), or an average of 121 new

units per year. The percentage increase in Brunswick during this period was more than the

increase for Cumberland County (34.7%), and the State of Maine (28.8%).

This data indicates that while Brunswick experienced growth in the number of

new year-round housing units built between 1980 and 1990 that was at a faster rate

than experienced in Cumberland County and the State of Maine, more recentlybetween 1990 and 2000, the rate of growth in Brunswick has been slower than

Cumberland County and the State.


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Table VII-5 - Year-Round Housing Unit Trends, 1980 - 2000

Town of Brunswick vs. Cumberland County and the State of Maine

Area

# of Year Round

Housing Units

Change between

1980-1990Avg. # of

Units

Added

Annually

Change between

1990-2000Avg. # of

Units

Added

Annually

Change between

1980-2000Avg. # of

Units

Added

Annually1980 1990 2000 # of units%

Change# of units

%

Change# of units

%

Change

Brunswick 6,083 8,012 8,500 1,929 31.7% 193 488 6.1% 49 2,417 39.7% 121

Cumberland C ounty 82,981 99,632 111,754 16,651 20.1% 1,665 12,122 12.2% 1,212 28,773 34.7% 1,439

State of Maine 427,377 499,006 550,431 71,629 16.8% 7,163 51,425 10.3% 5,143 123,054 28.8% 6,153

Source: 1980, 1990 and 2000 U.S. Census


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2. Local Housing Data

Data on annual new homes units added since 1994 is used to analyze residential

development trends. For this analysis, the data on new housing is based on the number of

building permits issued annually by the Town of Brunswick for new homes as reported by

the Towns Planning and Codes Department. (See Table VII-6 and Figure VII-1).

Between 1994 and 2003, the Town of Brunswick added, on average, 71 new homes

annually. Over the first five years of the period (1994 to 1998), Brunswick averaged 51 new

homes added annually. However, over the most recent five-year period (1999 to 2003),

Brunswick experienced an increase in residential development, averaging 92 new homes

added annually. In addition, over the last three years residential development has increased

further, averaging 104 new homes added annually.

Table VII-6 - Permits for New Housing Units, 1994-2003

Town of Brunswick

Year Permits for Housing Units Housing Units

1994 433 year moving average

1995 30

1996 58 61

1997 63 50

1998 61 61

1999 62 62

2000 85 69

2001 110 86

2002 107 101

2003 95 104

Last 10 Yr Avg. 94-03 71

First 5 Yr Avg. 94-98 51

Last 5 Yr Avg. 99-03 92

Last 3 Yr Avg. 01-03 104

Note: Building permit information based on a calendar year.

Sources:1994-2003 B ased on building Permit data from Town of Brunswick, Planning & Codes Departments.


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Figure VII-1

Overall Residential Development Trends

As discussed previously, the U.S. Census data indicated that there were 49 new year-round

housing units added per year between 1990 and 2000. The data from the U.S. Census indicated new

year round homes were added annually at a rate that was slower than what the local permit data

indicated has occurred over the last three years (2001 to 2003), or about 104 homes added annually.However, it is important to note that while the U.S. Census data is the net gain of homes (new

construction minus homes lost to fire and demolition), the local data takes into account the number

of homes added and does not take into account those homes lost to fire and demolition. However,

for the purposes of this analysis, the local data will be used to assess net preschool and elementary

in-grade net migration in Brunswick.


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D. Future Residential Growth

Over the last three years (2001 to 2003), residential growth in Brunswick (104 new housing

units annually) has been at higher levels than seen over the last five years (1999 to 2003) (92 new

housing units annually), and the last ten years (1994 to 2003) (71 new housing units annually).

With its availability of land for development and close proximity to job centers, Brunswick

continues to be an attractive community for purposes of residential development. In addition, the

Town continues to make efforts to attract and retain commercial development and expand local job

opportunities. Data provided by the Towns Planning Department, indicates that 33 lots in three

subdivisions were approved by the Planning Board in 2003. In 2004, the Planning Board has already

approved a 14-unit single-family subdivision and a 93-unit condominium. The 14-unit subdivision

is considered affordable housing and has the potential to add new children to the area. The 93-unit

condominium is not age restricted, but the developer feels the market for these units will be retirees

and elderly and, therefore, the number of children at the development will be negligible.

Additionally, a 34-unit single family subdivision has been proposed, but has yet to receive approval.

Based on this information, it is likely that residential development in Brunswick will continue

over the next three to five years with levels similar those experienced recently, or at a level of about

104 new housing units being added annually. Lower levels of development would occur if the

regional economy took a downturn or policies to restrict residential development levels were

implemented by the Town. However, it is important to note that because economic conditions

and local policies do change and changes in the level of residential development impacts school

enrollment, Planning Decisions strongly recommends that the Brunswick School Department

closely monitor future residential growth within the Town.

Brunswick has not placed limits on residential growth and may find the lack of growth

restrictions has some impact on Brunswicks residential development in the future; especially if theannual average of new housing units in the past three years is an indication of potential future

growth. Based on the annual residential development data, Planning Decisions will assume

residential development will continue in the future at a level similar to what has occurred over the

last three years, or that an average of 104 new housing units will be added annually in Brunswick.


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E. Relationship of Residential Development to School Enrollment

Planning Decisions in-house cohort survival does not directly incorporate the level of

residential development and turn over in the existing housing stock when projecting school

enrollment. Rather, the survival ratios utilized within cohort models reflect the historical impact of

net migration (which is influenced by residential development and turnover) on school enrollment.If future residential development levels, turnover levels, or their relationship to net migration are

significantly different from levels experienced in the past ten years, then cohort survival models may

overstate or understate future enrollment. For school planning purposes, it is important to

understand the degree to which residential development activity will impact school enrollment.

Specifically, Planning Decisions looked at how past residential development has impacted the in-

migration of students.

1. Net Preschool Migration

To show the relationship between residential development and preschool net

migration, Planning Decisions examined the ratios between net preschool migration reflectedin the first grade enrollment between 1999-00 and 2003-04, and the number of homes built

in Brunswick between the year of the first grade enrollment year and the six years prior.

Enrollment in 2003-04 was adjusted to account for the change in the way Non-Mainstreamed

Special Education students were accounted for between 2002-03 and 2003. The enrollment

figures used for this analysis will include military dependent students. (See Table VII-

7).

On average, for each of the six-year periods examined, 425 new housing units were

built in Brunswick. The average net out-migration of preschool-aged children for each of

the first grade enrollment years was 10 children, or a ratio of -0.024 children per unit or a

loss of about 2 children per 100 units. Over the last three years, on average, 482 newhousing units were built, and the average net out-migration of preschool-aged children was

18 children, or a ratio of 0.037 children per unit, or a loss of about 4 children per 100 units.

In other word, Brunswick has experienced a slightly higher level of preschool out-migration

over the last three years while the residential development has been at higher levels.

In addition, for the current school year, there was actually a net in-migration of 13

preschool-aged children. Applying the 13 preschool in-migrants to the 520 new housing

units added results in a ratio of 0.025 (a gain of about 3 children per 100 units) which is a

different rate of preschool migration compared to the average rate over the last three and five

years. However, it is too soon to tell whether the in-migration occurring over the last year

is the beginning of a new trend in preschool migration or merely the result of a normal

fluctuation in enrollment trends. Therefore, Planning Decisions considered the last three and

five year average trends to compare residential development to preschool in-migration.

Based on the last three and five year trends, it appears that residential development has had

little impact on preschool in-migration in Brunswick.


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In order for residential development to impact preschool net migration, a significant

increase in residential development would have to occur and historical trends would have to

change to a yearly in-migration of preschool-aged children verses the year-to-year

fluctuations of an in-migration and an out-migration which occurred over the last five-year

period. Based on this analysis, a significant increase in residential development which

is above and beyond the recent three-year rate of growth is unlikely to occur.Therefore, because Planning Decisions best fit model adequately reflects the

potential impacts on preschool net migration caused by residential development, a

second model was not created.

Table VII-7 - Births, First Grade Enrollment, Net Preschool Migration and

New Housing Units Added - Town of Brunswick

Birth Year(Oct. 15-Oct. 14)

# of

Births

1stGrade

Class

Year

1stGrade

EnrollNet Migr. Years

New

Housing

Units

Ratio

Migr/HU

1992-93 271 1999-00 262 (9) 1994-99 317 (0.028)

1993-94 209 2000-01 219 10 1995-00 359 0.028

1994-95 265 2001-02 209 (56) 1996-01 439 (0.128)

1995-96 262 2002-03 252 (10) 1997-02 488 (0.020)

1996-97 242 2003-04* 255 13 1998-03 520 0.025

5 Yr Avg.

(93-97)250

5 Yr Avg.

(99-03)239 (10)

Avg.

(94-03)425 (0.024)

3 Yr Avg.(95-97)

256 3 Yr Avg.(01-03)

239 (18) Avg.(96-03)

482 (0.037)

Note: Enrollment in 2003-04 is based on the adjusted first grade class size due to the change in the way Non-

Mainstreamed Special Education students are accounted for between 2002-03 and 2003-04.

Sources: Births - Office of Data, Research, and Vital Statistics; Maine Department of Human Services. 1stGrade

Enrollment - October 1 stEnrollment Reports, Brunswick School Department. New Homes Added - 1994 -2003 from

Town of Brunswick Planning & Codes Departments


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2. Net Elementary (Grades 1-6) Migration

Regarding the relationship between residential development levels and migration of

students at the elementary grades (first to sixth), Planning Decisions examined the ratio of

annual net migration of students at each of the grade levels and annual new housing units

built in Brunswick during the year. The enrollment figures used for this analysis willinclude military dependent students. (See Table VII-8).

In the ten years between 1994 and 2003, Brunswick experienced an average net out-

migration of elementary students. The average ratio of out-migration of elementary students

(1-6) to new housing units was -0.380. In other words, on average, over the last ten years

every 100 housing units built in Brunswick resulted in the out-migration of about 38

elementary students in one year.

In the last five years (1999 to 2003), Brunswick continued to experience an average

net out-migration of elementary students, with the average out-migration ratio of -0.220, or,

on average, over

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PDI Enrollment Study for Brunswick School Dept, May 2004

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