Peace Research Institute Frankfurt - PRIF Olivier Minkwitz, PRIF Arms Control and Information...

Olivier Minkwitz, PRIF

Peace Research Institute Frankfurt - PRIF

Arms Control and Information Arms Control and Information WarfareWarfare

Problems, Prospects, Policies ....Problems, Prospects, Policies ....

and a Plea for a New Approach towards and a Plea for a New Approach towards

Arms ControlArms Control

ISODARCO 2002ISODARCO 2002

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Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF

This Presentation is about.... This Presentation is about....

What is Arms Control? What is Arms Control? DefinitionDefinition, , FunctionsFunctions, , EffectsEffects andand InstrumentsInstruments

Why Arms Control in the Information Age?Why Arms Control in the Information Age? Problems of Arms Control Problems of Arms Control Prospects of Arms ControlProspects of Arms Control New Approaches towards Arms ControlNew Approaches towards Arms Control

traditionaltraditional vsvs. . qualitativequalitative andand preventivepreventive Main Point: “Building a Culture of restraint”Main Point: “Building a Culture of restraint”

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What is Arms Control ?What is Arms Control ?

Arms Control is not “Disarmament“ Arms Control is not “Disarmament“ Terms often used synonymously, but ...Terms often used synonymously, but ... DisarmamentDisarmament aims at the complete reduction aims at the complete reduction

of arms and of the military as an instrument of of arms and of the military as an instrument of politicspolitics

Disarmament is older, used more oftenDisarmament is older, used more often has some utopian connotation and has often has some utopian connotation and has often

failed..failed..

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Arms Control is a pragmatic conceptArms Control is a pragmatic concept Management of arms dynamics and stabilityManagement of arms dynamics and stability Hay-days of the concept in the 50’sHay-days of the concept in the 50’s Definition: Definition:

“all forms of military cooperation, between “all forms of military cooperation, between political enemies, in the interest of reducing political enemies, in the interest of reducing the the likelihoodlikelihood of war, its of war, its scopescope and and violenceviolence” ” (Schelling,1961)(Schelling,1961)

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Arms Control or Disarmament ?Arms Control or Disarmament ? artificial analytical distinction and separation:artificial analytical distinction and separation:

ethics of “effects” or “principles”

Arms Control and Disarmament vary in:Arms Control and Disarmament vary in:perspective, policy advice and actual effects

but share common goals:but share common goals:likelihood, scope and violence of war

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FunctionsFunctions EffectsEffects Schools of thoughtSchools of thought Prerequisites & RequirementsPrerequisites & Requirements InstrumentsInstruments What critics sayWhat critics say

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Six Functions of Arms ControlSix Functions of Arms Control

1) freeze, limit, reduce, abolish categories or 1) freeze, limit, reduce, abolish categories or designs of certain weaponsdesigns of certain weapons

2) prevent certain military activities2) prevent certain military activities

3) regulate the deployment of armed forces3) regulate the deployment of armed forces

4) proscribe transfers of militarily important 4) proscribe transfers of militarily important itemsitems

5) constrain, prohibit the use of certain weapons5) constrain, prohibit the use of certain weapons

6) build up confidence through openness6) build up confidence through openness

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Six Functions of Arms ControlSix Functions of Arms Control

1) freeze, limit, reduce, abolish categories of 1) freeze, limit, reduce, abolish categories of certain weaponscertain weapons






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Possible Effects of Arms ControlPossible Effects of Arms Control

Level 1: International Stability & Security PolicyLevel 1: International Stability & Security Policy reduces the risk of war started by accident slow down global, regional arms races increase predictability, reduce fears minimize destruction, suffering in armed conflicts

Level 2: Social and Normative EffectsLevel 2: Social and Normative Effects minimize disparities between heavily and lightly armed states save resources for economic, social development promote trust and understanding among nations prospect of peaceful relations

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Two Theories of Arms ControlTwo Theories of Arms Control

Realist ApproachRealist Approach immediate effects immediate effects national interest, national instrumentnational interest, national instrumentArms Control as an objectiveArms Control as an objective

Constructivist/Postmodern ApproachConstructivist/Postmodern Approach secondary effectssecondary effects interaction,discourse, changing of interestsinteraction,discourse, changing of interestsArms Control as a processArms Control as a process

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Prerequisites of Arms ControlPrerequisites of Arms Control

Conflicts and Arms Control are components Conflicts and Arms Control are components of international politics; mitigationof international politics; mitigation

certain conflicts cannot be certain conflicts cannot be directlydirectly affected by affected by interstate arms control interstate arms control (revolutionary, liberation movements, terrorism)(revolutionary, liberation movements, terrorism)

Arms control is for adversariesArms control is for adversaries(not for allies?, only state actors? Arms control from below?)(not for allies?, only state actors? Arms control from below?)

share common interest in avoiding warshare common interest in avoiding war

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Instruments and Methods of Arms ControlInstruments and Methods of Arms Control

Retributive Measures: Retributive Measures: 1) forceful imposition of arms limits 1) forceful imposition of arms limits (Cartage, MTA)(Cartage, MTA)

Unilateral Measures:Unilateral Measures:2) unilateral neglect2) unilateral neglect (interwar period)(interwar period)

3) unilateral decision3) unilateral decision (Mongolia)(Mongolia)

Reciprocal Measures:Reciprocal Measures:4) bilateral negotiation 4) bilateral negotiation (ABM, INF, SALT)(ABM, INF, SALT)

5) multilateral negotiation 5) multilateral negotiation (Hague, Tlatelolco, NPT)(Hague, Tlatelolco, NPT)

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Instruments and MethodsInstruments and Methods

Negotiation of Treaties, AgreementsNegotiation of Treaties, Agreements(formalization)(formalization)

Geographical Measures Geographical Measures (regional demilitarized zones)(regional demilitarized zones) Structural Measures Structural Measures (defensive orientation)(defensive orientation)

Operative Measures Operative Measures (limitation of maneuvers)(limitation of maneuvers)

Verification and Compliance Verification and Compliance (data exchange, (data exchange, Inspections) Inspections)

Declaratory Measures Declaratory Measures (declaration of restraint)(declaration of restraint)

CSBM CSBM (reassure intentions, communication channels)(reassure intentions, communication channels)

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Critics of Arms ControlCritics of Arms Control

Progressive Critics:Progressive Critics: freezes status quofreezes status quo arms races: bargaining chipsarms races: bargaining chips arms build up through Arms Control !arms build up through Arms Control !

Conservative Critics:Conservative Critics: only succeeds when unimportant only succeeds when unimportant causes conflict, suspicion in the first placecauses conflict, suspicion in the first place problems of verificationproblems of verification House of Cards !House of Cards !

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Critics of Arms ControlCritics of Arms Control

Pragmatics Critics:Pragmatics Critics: You need a hegemonic power to create or You need a hegemonic power to create or

sustain any (Arms Control) agreementssustain any (Arms Control) agreements Arms Control is nothing small, civil or economic Arms Control is nothing small, civil or economic

powers can persue on their ownpowers can persue on their own Today, US shows no interest in Arms Control!Today, US shows no interest in Arms Control!

tailored unilateralism / multilateralismtailored unilateralism / multilateralism deformalization of Arms Controldeformalization of Arms Control

(SORT 2002, flexibility, friends) (SORT 2002, flexibility, friends)

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Why Arms Control in the Why Arms Control in the Information Age?Information Age?

Controlling Information Warfare, Information Controlling Information Warfare, Information Operations, Computer Network Operation ?Operations, Computer Network Operation ?

6 Key Reasons:6 Key Reasons:

1) Realist Reasons1) Realist Reasons

2) Technical Risks2) Technical Risks

3) Economic Reasons3) Economic Reasons

4) Normative Reasons4) Normative Reasons

5) Timing & Ethics5) Timing & Ethics

6) Constructivist Reason6) Constructivist Reason

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6 Reasons for Arms Control6 Reasons for Arms Control

1) International Security1) International Security IW/IO already elements in today’s conflicts IW/IO already elements in today’s conflicts

(Kosovo, P-3, Israel-Palestine, Afghanistan...)(Kosovo, P-3, Israel-Palestine, Afghanistan...) definite source of conflict in the futuredefinite source of conflict in the future Proliferation of RMA, IW, IO, CNO Strategies, Proliferation of RMA, IW, IO, CNO Strategies,

Doctrine, Concepts and Thinking throughout the Doctrine, Concepts and Thinking throughout the military world, implementationmilitary world, implementation

Question of interest! Who will benefit from RMA in Question of interest! Who will benefit from RMA in the long run? Peer competitors, state or non-stated the long run? Peer competitors, state or non-stated Actors? Driver’s seat?Actors? Driver’s seat?

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2) Technical Risks:2) Technical Risks:

complex interdependence of technological complex interdependence of technological systemssystems

cascades, dynamicscascades, dynamics Danger, Threats, Risks, Vulnerabilities?Danger, Threats, Risks, Vulnerabilities?

(all still rests on FUD: (all still rests on FUD: Fear, Uncertainty & Doubt )Fear, Uncertainty & Doubt )

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3) Economic & 3) Economic &

4) Normative Reasons:4) Normative Reasons:

IO/IW undermines IO/IW undermines trusttrust in the way we make in the way we make business (e-commerce,....)business (e-commerce,....)

IO/IW undermines IO/IW undermines trusttrust in international in international relationsrelations

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5) Reasons of Timing & Ethics:5) Reasons of Timing & Ethics:

Question of new technology in general Question of new technology in general (Nuclear technology, Biotech, IT....)(Nuclear technology, Biotech, IT....)

modern technology: Janus-faced technologymodern technology: Janus-faced technology ““Verantwortungsethik” Verantwortungsethik” (Ethic of Responsibility)(Ethic of Responsibility)

TimeTime

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6) Constructivist/Postmodern Approach6) Constructivist/Postmodern Approach

Arms Control as a processArms Control as a process Innovation not Technology-immanent Innovation not Technology-immanent No “technological imperative”No “technological imperative” weapons like all technological systems are weapons like all technological systems are

socially and politically embedded systemssocially and politically embedded systems(RMA, War and “Democratic Peace”!)(RMA, War and “Democratic Peace”!)

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Excursion I:Excursion I:RMA, War and the “Democratic Peace”RMA, War and the “Democratic Peace”

““RMA happen” (historian perspective) vs. RMA’s RMA happen” (historian perspective) vs. RMA’s are being made (strategist’s view)are being made (strategist’s view)

Democracies make RMA’s happen!Democracies make RMA’s happen!Post-heroic: Material, human costsDemocratic War: moral, cost of legitimacy

Undermines the “Democratic peace”Undermines the “Democratic peace”Democracy, democratic Institutions, Identity and

Norms

makes the military are more usable instrument in makes the military are more usable instrument in international relationsinternational relations

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Problems of Arms Control in the Problems of Arms Control in the Information AgeInformation Age

Abstract and Vagueness Abstract and Vagueness not like WMD, small arms, weapons platforms RMA, IW, IO Doctrines, strategy

Real Threats and Vulnerabilities remain Real Threats and Vulnerabilities remain unclear: FUD?unclear: FUD?

Weapons of Mass Disruption or merely computer security, password security and computer user & administrator education,

awareness ?

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Concerns of Definition:Concerns of Definition:what would constitute a cyberweapon, attack or actor ?Offense, defense? Armed aggression, international law?Strategies, doctrine, concepts and technology

Policy ConcernsPolicy ConcernsForums, Actors (UN, ITU, NGOs)

Economic ConcernsEconomic Concerns Normative ConcernsNormative Concerns

Would we even want to control the flow of Information/Technology

democratic potential of IT, free speech...

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Concerns of Verification and ComplianceConcerns of Verification and Compliancecan we even control the flow of information, software,

and technology?

Paradoxes & Counter-productionParadoxes & Counter-productionwould any approach through formal abolition not

automatically also define what is allowed?Create trade, development barriers?

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Prospects of Arms Control Prospects of Arms Control

What then are viable options?What then are viable options?Approaches worth examining?Approaches worth examining?

Do nothing? Being overwhelmed by Do nothing? Being overwhelmed by technological determinism?technological determinism?

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Prospects of Arms ControlProspects of Arms Control

1) freeze, limit, reduce, abolish categories of 1) freeze, limit, reduce, abolish categories of certain weaponscertain weapons






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Focus on State-actors: Focus on State-actors: Military, Intelligence Military, Intelligence OrganizationOrganization

Geographic Measure:Geographic Measure: demilitarized zones, demilitarized zones, InfrastructureInfrastructure

Structural Measures:Structural Measures: Abolition of offensive IO, Abolition of offensive IO, CNA, mingling of civil/military InfrastructureCNA, mingling of civil/military Infrastructure

Operative Measures: Operative Measures: ban IO, CNA except in ban IO, CNA except in war, general ban; no IW Methods when war, general ban; no IW Methods when effects are not knowneffects are not known

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Technology/Means oriented:Technology/Means oriented: abolition of abolition of certain software tools, system architecturecertain software tools, system architecture

Proliferation-oriented Measures:Proliferation-oriented Measures: Export- Export-controlscontrols

Actors-oriented:Actors-oriented: banning the usage, banning the usage, possession of certain technologies by possession of certain technologies by militariesmilitaries

Goal-oriented:Goal-oriented: banning the attack on civil banning the attack on civil Infrastructure in generalInfrastructure in general

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Verification Measures:Verification Measures: logging, identification logging, identification of military activities, Monitoring, open source of military activities, Monitoring, open source verification through NGOsverification through NGOs

classical instrumentsclassical instruments

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Creating soft Norms and Taboos:Creating soft Norms and Taboos: Declaratory MeansDeclaratory Means Code of ConductCode of Conduct

No-First Use offensive Information Operations/Computer Network AttacksStrategy & Doctrine

Information Warfare Convention Information Warfare Convention off targets list IW Regime as Norms trap

““Culture of restraint” as a first stepCulture of restraint” as a first step

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Different Approaches to Arms Control in Different Approaches to Arms Control in the Information Agethe Information Age

Traditional, classical Arms Control focuses:Traditional, classical Arms Control focuses:Capabilities basedQuantities of weapons

Postmodern Arms Control focuses on:Postmodern Arms Control focuses on:Intention basedIdentity of Actors Quality of weaponsnew Actors, business, NGOs, HackersPreventive Arms Control Measures: Identification of

military critical technology,R&D, civil oversight, Weapons programs

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Want to know more ?Want to know more ?

Mailto:Mailto:

[email protected]@hsfk.de

PRIF: Peace Research Institute FrankfurtPRIF: Peace Research Institute Frankfurtwww.hsfk.dewww.hsfk.de

FoGIS: Research Information Society and FoGIS: Research Information Society and Security Policy, BerlinSecurity Policy, Berlin

www.fogis.dewww.fogis.de

Mailinglist infowar.deMailinglist infowar.de

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