69
Peak Oil Peak Oil A Primer A Primer Dr. Robert J. Brecha Dr. Robert J. Brecha Physics Dept. Physics Dept. University of Dayton University of Dayton UD Physics Dept. Seminar – Jan. 20,
Peak OilPeak Oil
A PrimerA PrimerDr. Robert J. BrechaDr. Robert J. Brecha
Physics Dept. Physics Dept. University of DaytonUniversity of Dayton
UD Physics Dept. Seminar – Jan. 20, 2006
OutlineOutline
Basic background (Where are we?)Basic background (Where are we?) Models and predictions (Where are Models and predictions (Where are
we going?)we going?) Economics (Maybe somebody knows Economics (Maybe somebody knows
…)…) Alternatives (How else might we get Alternatives (How else might we get
there?)there?) ConclusionsConclusions
SubtextSubtext
How do we use our technical and scientific How do we use our technical and scientific background to look at complex, ill-defined background to look at complex, ill-defined problems? (Peer-reviewed work, physical problems? (Peer-reviewed work, physical principles)principles)
Can we contribute to the discussions about Can we contribute to the discussions about possible declining natural resources as possible declining natural resources as educators, even if the details are outside our educators, even if the details are outside our specialty? (EROEI, thermodynamics vs. specialty? (EROEI, thermodynamics vs. economics)economics)
Is this really new, or have we already been Is this really new, or have we already been here before?here before?
World Energy UseWorld Energy Use
Coal
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Hydro
Biomass
Geothermal, wind solar, etc.
RE
Total~400 Quadrillion Btu
Total US Energy Use (Quads)
32.6
17.6
21.1
16.2
0.25
2.2
1.2
0.90.6
26.3
US Energy UseUS Energy Use
Industrial
Commercial
Residential
Transportation Lightvehicles
Med./hvytrucks
Air
(Water, pipeline, rail, buses)
~2/3 of oil use is transportation
Human Development Index Human Development Index and Energy Useand Energy Use
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 5 10 15
Primary Energy Use per Capita (toe/yr)
HD
I
0.5 billion (31 African countries)
0.5 billion4.2 billion
1.2 billion
Data from UNDP Human Development Report 2005, http://hdr.undp.org
GDP vs. Miles Driven GDP vs. Miles Driven (US)(US)
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2005/10/22/235239/89
US Yearly Petroleum US Yearly Petroleum ProductionProduction
19
49
19
53
19
57
19
61
19
65
19
69
19
73
19
77
19
81
19
85
19
89
19
93
19
97
20
01
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Pro
du
cti
on
(10
6 b
bl/year)
US Petroleum Production
Alaska NG Plant Liquids Lower 48
US Energy Information Agency: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/pet_frame.html
Many Countries Have Many Countries Have Peaked!Peaked!
The Countdown for the Peak of Oil Production has Begun – but what are the Views of the Most Important International Energy Agencies W. Zittel, J. Schindler, L-B-Systemtechnik, 12 October 2004 ([email protected]; [email protected])
Peak ModelsPeak Models
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
18
50
19
00
19
50
20
00
20
50
21
00
21
50
Year
Bill
ion
ba
rre
ls p
er
ye
ar
BP
USGS
A Brief History of OilA Brief History of Oil
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 25
0
50
0
75
0
10
00
12
50
15
00
17
50
20
00
22
50
Year
Bill
ion
ba
rre
ls p
er
ye
ar
Gaussian Fit to US Gaussian Fit to US ProductionProduction
Gaussian Production(quadratic fit)
y = -0.0003x2 + 1.1875x - 1167.5
R2 = 0.9898
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Lo
gar
ith
m o
f p
rod
uct
ion
Hubbert’s Logistic CurveHubbert’s Logistic CurveLogistic Curve
0
50
100
150
200
250
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Gb
bl
tota
l p
rod
uct
ion
Logistic Curve
0
50
100
150
200
250
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Gb
bl
tota
l p
rod
uct
ion
1980 Prediction
Logistic Curve
0
50
100
150
200
250
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Gb
bl
tota
l p
rod
uct
ion
“Economic” argument: We will alwaysfind more and increase ultimate recovered amount
Problem with Logistic Problem with Logistic CurvesCurves
At early stages, curves for widely differing total amounts may look very similar.
There are too many free fitting parameters
USGS and Cumulative USGS and Cumulative ProductionProduction
Hubbert LinearizationHubbert Linearization
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/1/11/6047/13568
Q (Gbbl)
OPEC Proved Crude Oil OPEC Proved Crude Oil ReservesReserves
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
90019
80
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Gb
bl
rese
rves
UAE
Venezuela
Saudi Arabia
Kuwait
Iraq
Iran
Energy Information Agency, posted March 2005, January 1, 1980 - January 1, 2005 Estimates
US Geological Survey US Geological Survey EstimatesEstimates
www.ihs.com
Bentley, Global Oil and Gas Depletion – an Overview, Energy Policy 30 (2002)
One Prediction (1998)One Prediction (1998)
R.C. Duncan and W. Youngquist,“Encircling the Peak of World Oil Production,” Natural Resources Research 8, 219-233 (1999). Also by the same authors: “The World Petroleum Life-Cycle” http://www.dieoff.com/page133.pdf
Duncan and Youngquist Duncan and Youngquist PredictionsPredictions
Peaked prior to 1997Peaked prior to 1997 14 14 countriescountries
Recovered from peak after 1997Recovered from peak after 1997 0 countries0 countries
Predicted to peak 1998-2005Predicted to peak 1998-2005 16 16 countriescountries
Actually peaked between 1998-Actually peaked between 1998-20052005
11 11 countriescountries
Predicted to peak after 2005Predicted to peak after 2005 13 13 countriescountries
Predicted to peak after 2005, Predicted to peak after 2005, but have already peakedbut have already peaked
2 countries2 countries
Finding NorwaysFinding Norways
R.C. Duncan and W. Youngquist, “The World Petroleum Life-Cycle”http://www.dieoff.com/page133.pdf
Reserves-to-Production Reserves-to-Production RatioRatio
BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2005, p.40
BP claims the world has only 40 yearsworth of oil at current extraction rates
World Reserve Additions World Reserve Additions and Productionand Production
World Oil Production
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Pro
du
cti
on
, Gb
/y
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.1
Fra
cti
on
al r
es
erv
e a
dd
itio
n/y
ea
r
UK Reserve Additions and UK Reserve Additions and ProductionProductionGreat Britain Production
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Mb
/d
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
Re
se
rve
ad
dit
ion
s/y
ea
r
Keep Watching…Keep Watching…
http://www.theoildrum.com
Peak “Good” OilPeak “Good” Oil
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, August 2005
A somewhat fuzzy story, but it appears that the peak in production of light,sweet crude oil is already past.
New TerritoryNew TerritoryRCLC1 Cushing, Ok Crude Oil Future Contract 1 (Dollars per Barrel)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70F
eb
18
, 1
98
2
Ju
l 0
3, 1
98
3
No
v 1
4, 1
98
4
Ma
r 2
9, 1
98
6
Au
g 1
1, 1
98
7
De
c 2
3, 1
98
8
Ma
y 0
7, 1
99
0
Se
p 1
9, 1
99
1
Ja
n 3
1, 1
99
3
Ju
n 1
5, 1
99
4
Oct 2
8, 1
99
5
Ma
r 1
1, 1
99
7
Ju
l 2
4, 1
99
8
De
c 0
6, 1
99
9
Ap
r 1
9, 2
00
1
Se
p 0
1, 2
00
2
Ja
n 1
4, 2
00
4
Ma
y 2
8, 2
00
5
Oct 1
0, 2
00
6
Pri
ce
(c
urr
en
t d
oll
ars
/bb
l)
In the history of oil use, we have never before experienced a prolonged period of ever-increasing oil prices
Predictability?Predictability?
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
-100 -50 0 50 100
% Change, Previous year
% C
han
ge,
Yea
r
2005
1989
1986
1987
1991
Higher Prices, More Oil?Higher Prices, More Oil?
The “price-reserves relationship has its limits, because oil is found in discrete packages (reservoirs) as opposed to the varying concentrations characteristic of many minerals. Thus, at some price, world reserves of recoverable conventional oil will reach a maximum because of geological fundamentals. Beyond that point, insufficient additional conventional oil will be recoverable at any realistic price.”
“PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION:
IMPACTS, MITIGATION, & RISK MANAGEMENT” Hirsch, Bezdek, Wendling (contracted report for DOE)
The Law of Supply ?
Higher Prices Will Drive Higher Prices Will Drive Discovery?Discovery?
From D. Reynolds, Using non-time-series to determine supply elasticity: How far do prices change the Hubbert curve?, OPEC Review, June 2002, p.147-167
“Cumulative discovery is used as an information and depletion indicator that determines the Hubbert curve …Technology and regulatory effects are added …Price and other variables are added to determine how powerful price is for changing the Hubbert supply model, both for discovery and production … The Hubbert curve can be thought of as a limit of production.”
Translation: Geology is the limiting factor
U.S. Production vs. PriceU.S. Production vs. Price
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
70
0
Production
Price
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
2002 dollars per barrel
Dramatic Improvement in Oil Field Technology
Billions of barrels / year
“PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION: IMPACTS, MITIGATION, & RISK MANAGEMENT” Hirsch, Bezdek, Wendling
““Elasticity” and the Law of Elasticity” and the Law of DemandDemand
Oil Usage curve (2001-2005)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
76.00 78.00 80.00 82.00 84.00 86.00
World oil usage (MMbbl/day)
Pri
ce (
$/b
bl,
Bre
nt
cru
de)
How Have We Reacted How Have We Reacted Previously?Previously?
Data from EIA and Transportation Energy Data Book, 24th ed.
US Energy Consumption
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
En
erg
y (
Qu
ad
s)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Transportation Residential Total US Crude Oil Price
The Hirsch ReportThe Hirsch Report
“PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION: IMPACTS, MITIGATION, & RISK MANAGEMENT” R.L. Hirsch, R. Bezdek, R. Wendling (Feb. 2005)
We cannot conceive of any affordable government-sponsored "crash program" to accelerate normal replacement schedules so as to incorporate higher energy efficiency technologies into the privately-owned transportation sector; significant improvements in energy efficiency will thus be inherently time-consuming (of the order of a decade or more).
Auto LifetimeAuto Lifetime
Transportation Energy Data Book, 24th Ed.
Driving Habits vs. Driving Habits vs. HybridsHybrids
2.50E+08
2.70E+08
2.90E+08
3.10E+08
3.30E+08
3.50E+08
3.70E+08
3.90E+08
4.10E+08
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
Ga
llon
s o
f g
as
pe
r y
ea
r
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Scenario one: Fleet grows by 0.5%/yr; no hybrids; driving amount remains const. at 11,600 mi/veh/yrScenario two: Fleet grows by 0.5%/yr; hybrids incr. at 25%/yr.; driving amount remains const. at 11,600 mi/veh/yrScenario three: Fleet grows by 0.5%/yr; no hybrids; driving cut by 10% one time to 10,440 mi/veh/yrScenario four: Fleet grows by 0.5%/yr; no hybrids; driving cut by 2%/yr from 11,600 mi/veh/yr
But … if the decline rate is 3 – 5 %/year?
Fuel Economy by SpeedFuel Economy by Speed
Transportation Energy Data Book, 24th Ed.
Driving at 60 mph instead of 70 mph could saveroughly 500,000 barrels of oil each day
Trains, Anyone?Trains, Anyone?
Natural GasNatural Gas
National Petroleum Council (1998)US Prod. Import from Canada
1998 19 Tcf 3 Tcf2010 25 Tcf 4 Tcf2015 27 Tcf
Now the numbers are more like …1998 19 Tcf2003 19 Tcf 2008 15 Tcf
And Canada peaked in 2001 at ~5 Tcf and expects a declineof 2.5% per year
Natural Gas in the USNatural Gas in the USNG Data
0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0
100.0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
US Production (Bcf) Percentage of successful wells
US Proven Reserves (Tcf) Henry Hub Prices ($/MMBtu)
Number of wells drilled (thousands)
EIA Statistical Review of World Energy data
(per day)
Tar SandsTar Sands Alberta, Canada + VenezuelaAlberta, Canada + Venezuela Effectively a mining operationEffectively a mining operation Current production of 600,000 bbl/day of Current production of 600,000 bbl/day of
synthetic crude oilsynthetic crude oil Estimates of 2 – 3 MMb/d in 10 – 20 years if all Estimates of 2 – 3 MMb/d in 10 – 20 years if all
goes well. goes well. Needs large amounts of NG and water, plus Needs large amounts of NG and water, plus
hazardous waste disposalhazardous waste disposalThe plan now is to expand capacity from the present 155,000 barrels a day to more than 500,000 by 2015. This will require many billions of dollars of further investment in mining and upgrading facilities. Malcolm Brinded Executive Director Exploration & Production, Royal Dutch Shell plchttp://www.shell.com/static/media-en/downloads/speeches/mb_oxford_energy_seminar.pdf
Oil ShaleOil Shale
Western U.S.Western U.S. Possibly 800 billion barrels !!Possibly 800 billion barrels !! A mined productA mined product Techniques proven in principle, but not at Techniques proven in principle, but not at
large scalelarge scale Only profitable with oil >$75/bblOnly profitable with oil >$75/bbl High growth, optimum scenario – 10High growth, optimum scenario – 1066 bbl/d bbl/d
in 2025 or later.in 2025 or later.
Rand Corp. report for US DOE, Nat’l. Energy Rand Corp. report for US DOE, Nat’l. Energy Tech. Lab.Tech. Lab.
HydrogenHydrogen Current US annual production: 10 Mt Current US annual production: 10 Mt
accounts for 5% of natural gas usage accounts for 5% of natural gas usage releases 100 Mt COreleases 100 Mt CO22. . Direct use for all US transport would require some Direct use for all US transport would require some
200 Mt/yr. 200 Mt/yr. Mostly from reforming methane (NG)Mostly from reforming methane (NG) Used for making ammonia (fertilizer); oil refiningUsed for making ammonia (fertilizer); oil refining
Could use electricity to obtain HCould use electricity to obtain H22 from H from H22OO Fuel cellsFuel cells
Expensive $3000/kW (gasoline engine: $30/kW)Expensive $3000/kW (gasoline engine: $30/kW) Well-to-wheels efficiency Well-to-wheels efficiency current hybrid electric current hybrid electric
vehiclesvehicles
Physics Today, Dec. 2004 +Transportation Energy Data Book, 24th ed.
EthanolEthanol
Yield for ethanol from corn is ~70 GJ/ha (@9000 kgcorn/ha)
Automobile + light truck transportation uses ~1.7×1010 GJ/a
Quick calculation: we would need 2.4×108 ha of land
Currently we have in the US 1.2×108 ha of cropland total
But … the key point missing is the energy input. Ethanol fromindustrial-scale corn farming is an energy break-even, at best. Energy return on Energy invested (EROEI) ratio is ~1.
D.Pimentel and T. Patzek, Natural Resources Research 14, 65-76 (2005) Shapouri - USDA “The Energy Balance of Corn Ethanol: An Update” Ag. Econ. Report 813
EROEIEROEI
“Net energy from the extraction of oil and gas in the United States”Cutler J. Cleveland Energy 30 (2005) 769–782T
ar
san
ds
Hyd
ro
Win
d
Four ScenariosFour Scenarios
25.00
35.00
45.00
55.00
65.00
75.00
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Year
MM
bo
e/d
Moderate Green Nuclear Coal Current Growth
Effects of Peak Oil – Effects of Peak Oil – Scenario IScenario I
2005
2009
2013
2017
2021
2025
2029
2033
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
Solar
Wind
Gas hydrates
Shale oil
Biomass
Hydro
Tar sands
Nuclear
Nat. gas
Coal
Oil
Mil
lion
boe/d
Scenario I ParametersScenario I Parameters First scenario, which could be referred to as a
moderately changed business-as-usual energy future. Natural gas and oil peak in consumption in five years; the decline rate for each being 3%/year. Solar and wind energy grow at 10%/year, while nuclear power and coal as energy sources grow at 1%/year as is currently the case. Non-conventional oil and gas production increases are based on current optimistic estimates: shale oil and methane hydrates beginning commercial production in 10 years and increasing at 0.15 million boe/day/year, while tar sands oil production increases from the current level of 1 million boe/day by 0.2 million boe/day/year.
Coal ProductionCoal Production
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/coal.htmlEnergy Information Administration – Annual Energy Review 2005
Coal ProductionCoal Production
Coal Production, 1949-2004
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Co
al e
ne
rgy
co
nte
nt
(Qu
ad
s)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
To
tal P
rod
uct
ion
(m
illio
n t
on
s)
Coal production Million Btu/ton Energy content
The Coal Future – The Coal Future – Scenario IVScenario IV
20
05
20
09
20
13
20
17
20
21
20
25
20
29
20
33
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
Solar
Wind
Gas hydrates
Shale oil
Biomass
Hydro
Tar sands
Nuclear
Nat. gas
Coal
Oil
Mil
lion
boe/d
Scenario IV ParametersScenario IV Parameters
Fourth scenario, coal energy future. Natural gas and oil peak in consumption in five years; the decline rate for each being 8%/year, leading to a strong increase in the use of coal, at a rate of 5%/year. Solar and wind energy grow at 10%/year, while nuclear power grows at 1%/year as is currently the case. Finally, the prognoses for non-conventional oil and gas are based on current optimistic estimates: shale oil and methane hydrates beginning commercial production in 10 years and increasing at 0.15 million boe/day/year, while tar sands oil production increases from the current level of 1 million boe/day by 0.2 million boe/day/year.
NuclearNuclear
Technology knownTechnology known Good for environment – at least for Good for environment – at least for
COCO22 emissions emissions Electricity, not transportationElectricity, not transportation Back to HirschBack to Hirsch Waste disposal, etc.Waste disposal, etc. Non-renewable (~50 years at Non-renewable (~50 years at
CROC?)CROC?)
Nuclear Future – Nuclear Future – Scenario IIIScenario III
2005
2009
2013
2017
2021
2025
2029
2033
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
Solar
Wind
Gas hydrates
Shale oil
Biomass
Hydro
Tar sands
Nuclear
Nat. gas
Coal
Oil
Mil
lion
boe/d
Scenario III ParametersScenario III Parameters Third scenario, nuclear-supplemented fossil-
fuel energy future. Natural gas and oil peak in consumption in five years; the decline rate for each being 3%/year, as in the first scenario. Solar and wind energy grow at 10%/year and coal grows at 1%/year, while nuclear power as an energy source increases at 10%/year beginning in 10 years to allow for ramp-up. Finally, the prognoses for non-conventional oil and gas are based on current optimistic estimates: shale oil and methane hydrates beginning commercial production in 10 years and increasing at 0.15 million boe/day/year, while tar sands oil production increases from the current level of 1 million boe/day by 0.2 million boe/day/year.
Life-cycle COLife-cycle CO22 emissions emissions
H. Hondo / Energy 30 (2005) 2042–2056
Solar EnergySolar Energy
Clearly plentiful, renewableClearly plentiful, renewable Now provides ~0.1% of energy (see Now provides ~0.1% of energy (see
Hirsch)Hirsch) Embodied energy questions – but Embodied energy questions – but
seem favorableseem favorable Hot water or electricityHot water or electricity Local generationLocal generation In Ohio?In Ohio?
Green Energy Future – Green Energy Future – Scenario IIScenario II
2005
2009
2013
2017
2021
2025
2029
2033
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
Solar
Wind
Gas hydrates
Shale oil
Biomass
Hydro
Tar sands
Nuclear
Nat. gas
Coal
Oil
Mil
lion
boe/d
Scenario II ParametersScenario II ParametersSecond scenario, which could be referred to as a
green energy future. Natural gas and oil peak in consumption in five years; the decline rate for each being 8%/year, considered as an upper limit, but consistent with the declines seen in the North Sea. Solar and wind energy grow at 20%/year, while nuclear power and coal as energy sources grow at 1%/year as is currently the case. Finally, non-conventional oil and gas development proceeds more slowly than in the first scenario: shale oil and methane hydrates beginning commercial production in 10 years and increasing at 0.05 million boe/day/year, while tar sands oil production increases from the current level of 1 million boe/day by the same 0.05 million boe/day/year.
Scenario II – Slower Scenario II – Slower DeclineDecline
25.00
35.00
45.00
55.00
65.00
75.00
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Year
MM
bo
e/d
Moderate Green Nuclear Coal Current Growth
World Oil Production per World Oil Production per CapitaCapita
Adapted from Pat Murphy, Community Service, Inc.
Some ConclusionsSome Conclusions
It will happen – but when?It will happen – but when? Transitions take time – decade Transitions take time – decade
timescalestimescales 97% of transportation is petroleum97% of transportation is petroleum Food system, pharmaceuticals, Food system, pharmaceuticals,
plastics, …plastics, … No good substitutes in sight (Jevons)No good substitutes in sight (Jevons) Faith-based energy initiatives …Faith-based energy initiatives …
Population-Driven Energy DemandPopulation-Driven Energy Demand
10,00010,000
8,0008,000
6,0006,000
4,0004,000
2,0002,000
0015001500 17001700 19001900 21002100
World PopulationWorld Population(Millions)(Millions)
World Primary Energy World Primary Energy ConsumptionConsumption(Quadrillion BTU)(Quadrillion BTU)
500500
400400
300300
19751975 19851985 19951995 20052005 20152015AAPG Explorer, 8/95AAPG Explorer, 8/95
http://www.aapg.org/slide_bank/armentrout_john/index.shtml
Solar Hot WaterSolar Hot Water
““Giant” DiscoveriesGiant” Discoveries
Paper presented at the EMF/IEA/IEW meeting , IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria - June 19, 2001 Plenary Session I: Resources
Prices of OilPrices of Oil
BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2005, p. 14
Rough Outline of the Rough Outline of the FutureFuture
USGS published reserve estimates in USGS published reserve estimates in 19981998
EIA uses those estimates, along with EIA uses those estimates, along with consumption patterns to predict future consumption patterns to predict future growthgrowth
A gap between predicted demand and A gap between predicted demand and predicted production begins to grow predicted production begins to grow
Gap is to be filled with a) Saudi Arabia Gap is to be filled with a) Saudi Arabia producing >20 MMbbl/day, and b) producing >20 MMbbl/day, and b) “unidentified unconventional” sources“unidentified unconventional” sources
American government's forecast for future oil supplies are a "dangerous over-estimate". Sadad Al Husseini (recently retired vice-president of the Saudi oil company Aramco) (10/26/04)
Matthew Simmons – “Twilight in the Desert”
2/3 !
