PEAK OIL AND CLIMATE CHANGE

27 May 2013 U3A Moruya

Jenny Goldie, ACT Peak Oil

National President, SPA

The importance of oil

90% of manufactured goods depend on availability of oil

The importance of oil

Oil powers 95% transportation

Oil and food production

Oil is needed to manufacture fertiliser and operate farm machinery, for irrigation and transportation, for raising livestock and producing pesticides.  

Consumption of oil

The world consumes the equivalent of 60 oil tankers a day

Courtesy Ian Dunlop

Cheap oil has been the basis of our prosperity

What is peak oil?

Peak Oil is the maximum rate of the production of oil in any area…

(Colin Campbell ASPO)

What is peak oil?

M King Hubberd predicted in 1956 that US oil production would peak in 1971. (It peaked 1970).

Peak oil in NorwayCourtesy Ian Dunlop

When was peak conventional oil?

From 2005 onwards, conventional crude-oil production has not risen to match increasing demand. (2010 report)

Australia’s suppressed report

“The outlook …is for a long decline in oil production to begin in 2017...”

Report 117: Transport Energy Futures -- Long Term Oil Supply Trends and Projections.

The 2009 report was prepared for the Minister for Infrastructure Anthony Albanese by Dr David Gargett of the Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE).

Picture: John TiedemanDaily Telegraph

Coming shortages?

US military warns oil output may dip causing massive shortages by 2015

Shortfall could reach 10m barrels a

day, report says

(11 April 2010)

German military warning

A 2011study by a German military think tank warned that within 10 years oil shortages may collapse global economy.

“Many will not want to hear but peak oil is unavoidable.”

NRMA/Blackburn 2013 Report: “Australia’s Liquid Fuel Security”

“…without an adequate supply of liquid fuels we could not access health services

food production and distribution would be severely curtailed

most businesses could not operate

our personal and much of the public transportation system could not function

and our Defence Forces could not operate.

Essentially, our society as we know it would cease to function.”

Courtesy Dail;ykos.com

The growing gap between discovery and production

What was expected, but…Courtesywww.hubbertpeak.com

Courtesy energyinsights.net

…in fact, not a peak but a plateau

Alternatives to conventional oil

Unconventional oil

Deep waterTar sandsArcticUltra-deep pre-salt Shale oilHeavy oil

BiofuelsCornSugarAlgae

BP Energy Outlook 2030

High prices and technological innovation have unlocked vast unconventional resources in the US, reversing the trend of falling output and altering global energy balances.

BP Energy Outlook 2013

In 2012, 24% of US oil production was from tight oil

In 2012, 37% of natural gas was from shale

These resources have boosted gas output by nearly 20% and oil by 30% in the past five years.

Unconventional oil (1)

Deep water

Unconventional oil (2)

Tar sands

Unconventional oil (3)

Arctic

Unconventional oil (4)

Ultra-deep pre-salt oil

Unconventional oil (5)

Shale oil

Unconventional oil (6)

Heavy oil

Death of peak oil?

Courtesy peakenergy.blogspot.com

The Death of Peak Oil?

Energy Information Agency (EIA) 2013 report. Trends to 2040

Oil production rises, reducing net imports

US becomes net natural gas exporter Coal’s share of electric power generation

fallsGasoline consumption declines while

diesel fuel use growsNatural gas consumption grows in

industrial and electric power sectorsRenewable fuel use grows at a faster

rate than fossil fuel use

Courtesy Ian Dunlop

IEA World Energy Outlook 2011

Courtesy Ian Dunlop

IEA World Energy Outlook 2011

IEA World Energy Outlook 2012

“…the United States becomes a net exporter of natural gas by 2020 and is almost self-sufficient in energy, in net terms, by 2035. North America emerges as a net oil exporter, accelerating the switch in direction of international oil trade, with almost 90% of Middle Eastern oil exports being drawn to Asia by 2035.”

IEA World Energy Outlook 2012

Global oil demand exceeds 99 mb/d in 2035… A surge in unconventional and deepwater oil boosts non-OPEC supply over the current decade, but the world relies increasingly on OPEC after 2020.

Iraq accounts for 45% of the growth in global oil production to 2035 and becomes the second-largest global oil exporter, overtaking Russia.

Courtesy Ian Dunlop

Energy Watch Group (Germany)

Energy Watch Group 2013 report

Peak Oil – the maximum sustainable rate of global oil production – happened in 2012. 

“…coal and gas production will reach their respective production peaks around 2020…”

“Therefore, the decline of oil production – which is expected to start soon – will lead to a rising energy gap which will become too large to be filled by natural gas and/or coal.”

Decline or not?

EWG expects a 40per cent decline in oil production by 2030 

IEA expects to meet increased demand of 99mbd in 2035

Courtesy Ian Dunlop

Australia’s oil shortfall an increasing financial burdenA$30--‐60billion

Australia’s oil supply shortfall - $30-60 b by 2020

Courtesy Ian Dunlop

ERoEI dropping rapidly

ERoEI

Evidence of global warming

Past and future fuel consumption

We can only burn 30% fossil fuels

But can we use all fossil fuels?

“We can emit 565 more gigatons of carbon dioxide and stay below 2°C of warming …Burning the fossil fuel that corporations now have in their reserves would result in emitting 2,795 gigatons of carbon dioxide – five times the safe amount.

Bill McKibben 350.org

Possible breakdown?

Courtesy Ian Dunlop

Solutions

Urban re-design - high density integrated with efficient public transport

- decentralisation of work centres

Rail becomes major transport mode – for high-speed passengers and freight

Electricity from clean energy

Halt to freeway and airport construction

Reduced air travel - unless quality biofuels emerge

Localised food production

Major IT innovation to reduce ecological footprint – built around high speed broadband

Enhanced resource productivity -zero waste design

Thank you!

Recommended websites:

http://act-peakoil.org/

http://www.peakoil.net/

http://www.aspo-australia.org.au/

http://www.energybulletin.net/

http://www.postcarbon.org/