Peak OilPeak Oil

Future Energy ScenariosFuture Energy Scenarios

Dr. Robert J. BrechaDr. Robert J. Brecha

University of DaytonUniversity of Dayton

Chautauqua Course, May 22-24, 2006

World Energy UseWorld Energy Use

Coal

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Hydro

Biomass

Geothermal, wind solar, etc.

RE

Total~400 Quadrillion Btu

Total US Energy Use (Quads)

32.6

17.6

21.1

16.2

0.25

2.2

1.2

0.90.6

26.3

US Energy UseUS Energy Use

Industrial

Commercial

Residential

Transportation Lightvehicles

Med./hvytrucks

Air

(Water, pipeline, rail, buses)

~2/3 of oil use is transportation

US Yearly Petroleum US Yearly Petroleum ProductionProduction

19

49

19

53

19

57

19

61

19

65

19

69

19

73

19

77

19

81

19

85

19

89

19

93

19

97

20

01

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Pro

du

cti

on

(10

6 b

bl/year)

US Petroleum Production

Alaska NG Plant Liquids Lower 48

US Energy Information Agency: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/pet_frame.html

Finding NorwaysFinding Norways

R.C. Duncan and W. Youngquist, “The World Petroleum Life-Cycle”http://www.dieoff.com/page133.pdf

Driving Habits vs. Driving Habits vs. HybridsHybrids

Scenario one: Fleet grows by 0.5%/yr; no hybrids; driving amount remains const. at 11,600 mi/veh/yrScenario two: Fleet grows by 0.5%/yr; hybrids incr. at 25%/yr.; driving amount remains const. at 11,600 mi/veh/yrScenario three: Fleet grows by 0.5%/yr; no hybrids; driving cut by 10% one time to 10,440 mi/veh/yrScenario four: Fleet grows by 0.5%/yr; no hybrids; driving cut by 2%/yr from 11,600 mi/veh/yr

But … if the decline rate is 3 – 5 %/year?50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Year

Mil

lio

n g

all

on

s o

f g

as p

er

year

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4

Fuel Economy by SpeedFuel Economy by Speed

Transportation Energy Data Book, 24th Ed.

Driving at 60 mph instead of 70 mph could saveroughly 500,000 barrels of oil each day

EthanolEthanolYield for ethanol from corn is ~70 GJ/ha (@9000 kgcorn/ha)

Automobile + light truck transportation uses ~1.7×1010 GJ/a

Quick calculation: we would need 2.4×108 ha of land

Currently we have in the US 1.2×108 ha of cropland total

But … the key point missing is the energy input. Ethanol fromindustrial-scale corn farming is barely an energy break-even. Energy return on Energy invested (EROEI) ratio is ~1. GHG emissions are only slightly less than for conventional gasoline.

D.Pimentel and T. Patzek, Natural Resources Research 14, 65-76 (2005) Shapouri - USDA “The Energy Balance of Corn Ethanol: An Update” Ag. Econ. Report 813Farrell et al., Science 311, 506-508 (2006)

Four ScenariosFour Scenarios

0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0

100.0110.0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Year

MM

bo

e/d

Current Conserve BAU Green Nuclear Coal

Effects of Peak Oil – Effects of Peak Oil – Scenario IScenario I

2005

2009

2013

2017

2021

2025

2029

2033

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

Solar

Wind

Gas hydrates

Shale oil

Biomass

Hydro

Tar sands

Nuclear

Nat. gas

Coal

Oil

Mil

lion

boe/d

Scenario I ParametersScenario I Parameters First scenario, which could be referred to as a

moderately changed business-as-usual energy future. Natural gas and oil peak in consumption in five years; the decline rate for each being 3%/year. Solar and wind energy grow at 10%/year, while nuclear power and coal as energy sources grow at 1%/year as is currently the case. Non-conventional oil and gas production increases are based on current optimistic estimates: shale oil and methane hydrates beginning commercial production in 10 years and increasing at 0.15 million boe/day/year, while tar sands oil production increases from the current level of 1 million boe/day by 0.2 million boe/day/year.

Green Energy Future – Green Energy Future – Scenario IIScenario II

2005

2009

2013

2017

2021

2025

2029

2033

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

Solar

Wind

Gas hydrates

Shale oil

Biomass

Hydro

Tar sands

Nuclear

Nat. gas

Coal

Oil

Mil

lion

boe/d

Scenario II ParametersScenario II ParametersSecond scenario, which could be referred to as

a green energy future. Natural gas and oil peak in consumption in five years; the decline rate for each being 3%/year, considered as a lower limit. Solar and wind energy grow at 20%/year, while nuclear power and coal as energy sources grow at 1%/year as is currently the case. Finally, non-conventional oil and gas development proceeds more slowly than in the first scenario: shale oil and methane hydrates beginning commercial production in 10 years and increasing at 0.05 million boe/day/year, while tar sands oil production increases from the current level of 1 million boe/day by the same 0.05 million boe/day/year.

NuclearNuclear

Technology knownTechnology known Good for environment – at least for Good for environment – at least for

COCO22 emissions emissions Electricity, not transportationElectricity, not transportation Back to HirschBack to Hirsch Waste disposal, etc.Waste disposal, etc. Non-renewable (~50 years at Non-renewable (~50 years at

CROC?)CROC?)

Nuclear Future – Nuclear Future – Scenario IIIScenario III

2005

2009

2013

2017

2021

2025

2029

2033

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

Solar

Wind

Gas hydrates

Shale oil

Biomass

Hydro

Tar sands

Nuclear

Nat. gas

Coal

Oil

Mil

lion

boe/d

Scenario III ParametersScenario III Parameters Third scenario, nuclear-supplemented fossil-

fuel energy future. Natural gas and oil peak in consumption in five years; the decline rate for each being 3%/year, as in the first scenario. Solar and wind energy grow at 10%/year and coal grows at 1%/year, while nuclear power as an energy source increases at 10%/year beginning in 10 years to allow for ramp-up. Finally, the prognoses for non-conventional oil and gas are based on current optimistic estimates: shale oil and methane hydrates beginning commercial production in 10 years and increasing at 0.15 million boe/day/year, while tar sands oil production increases from the current level of 1 million boe/day by 0.2 million boe/day/year.

Life-cycle COLife-cycle CO22 emissions emissions

H. Hondo / Energy 30 (2005) 2042–2056

The Coal Future – The Coal Future – Scenario IVScenario IV

20

05

20

09

20

13

20

17

20

21

20

25

20

29

20

33

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

Solar

Wind

Gas hydrates

Shale oil

Biomass

Hydro

Tar sands

Nuclear

Nat. gas

Coal

Oil

Mil

lion

boe/d

Scenario IV ParametersScenario IV Parameters

Fourth scenario, coal energy future. Natural gas and oil peak in consumption in five years; the decline rate for each being 8%/year, leading to a strong increase in the use of coal, at a rate of 5%/year. Solar and wind energy grow at 10%/year, while nuclear power grows at 1%/year as is currently the case. Finally, the prognoses for non-conventional oil and gas are based on current optimistic estimates: shale oil and methane hydrates beginning commercial production in 10 years and increasing at 0.15 million boe/day/year, while tar sands oil production increases from the current level of 1 million boe/day by 0.2 million boe/day/year.

Coal ProductionCoal Production

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/coal.htmlEnergy Information Administration – Annual Energy Review 2005

Coal ProductionCoal Production

Coal Production, 1949-2004

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Co

al e

ne

rgy

co

nte

nt

(Qu

ad

s)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

To

tal P

rod

uct

ion

(m

illio

n t

on

s)

Coal production Million Btu/ton Energy content