Pecan Production Trends for the Future

Tom StevensonOrchard Management Services

Albany, GA

Arizona, Western New Mexico

Arizona5300 acres less than 7 years old4500 acres intended to be planted by 20185000 acres planned for 2018-2022

Western New Mexico 4000 acres intended over next two years in Animas Valley

HIGH DENSITY PLANTINGS, PLANS FOR HEDGING, IRRIGATION & GOOD MANAGEMENT

18,800 Acres with some hitting yields of 2,000 pounds per acre in the 6th year of production 18,800 acres with an average of 2,500 pounds per acre by 2025 = 47,000,000 pounds of new production.

Florida and Alabama1: Some new plantings over past 5 years but numbers difficult to get.2: Interviews with growers indicated possibly 2000 acres in total.3: By 2025 an additional 3,000,000 pounds at 1,500 pounds per acre.

GeorgiaNew Plantings:

1: 20,000 new acres planted in last 5 years. (2009 through 2013)2: 5,000 acres inter-planted, increasing the density of trees in older, widely spacing orchards.3: Through 2013, 165,000 total acres of trees in Georgia.4: Nursery production projections indicate 5,000 acres planted in 2014 and 6,000 acres planned in 2015.5: 2025 could arrive with 36,000 new acres in Georgia with an age of 10 to 17 years of age.

Higher production will be achieved on these acres because of:1: Higher tree density per acre2: All planted with irrigation3: Plans for hedging to maintain tree density, also allowing for increased light and better disease(scab) control. 4: Much improved cultural programs for water, fertilizer, fruit thinning, hedging, etc.5: New varieties that are larger nuts, earlier harvest, more precocious, higher yielding in pounds and meat.6: A new generation of growers with enthusiasm, intelligence and the capital to do it right.

No longer a Secondary Crop:1: Older orchards are being irrigated with only 20% of the state acreage being dry land now. 2: The average crop of 800 pounds per acre (112,000,000 pounds) will increase dramatically. 3: The new high density plantings are achieving 2,000 pounds plus per acre in 10-12 years. 4: The older trees will increase their average to 1,400 pounds per acre over those same years.

By 2025 I estimate the average crop for Georgia will increase by 156,000,000 pounds, from 112,000,000 pounds to 268,000,000.

HEDGING IN GEORGIA

Newly Planted Trees by Cultivar 2012Dr. Lenny Wells-University of Georgia

Desirab

le

Pawnee

Oconee

Elliott

Byrd

Cape Fe

arExce

l

Morelan

dCreek

Sumner

Man

dan

Kiowa

Caddo

Lako

ta

Cunard

Gloria Gran

de

Morri

ll

Kanza

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

27%

Production Trends

Dr. Patrick Conner2012 2014 20150

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

All NurseriesN

umbe

r of t

rees

252,500

731,000681,000

Dr. Patrick ConnerUniversity of Georgia

Estimated Production increases by 2025

Arizona and Western New Mexico>> 47,000,000 NEW POUNDSAlabama and Florida>>>>>>>>>>>>> 3,000,000 NEW POUNDSGeorgia>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 156,000,000 NEW POUNDS

TOTAL=206,000,000 NEWAnd we have not come to George Ray’s part of the program yet!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

A United IndustryIf we are to support the needed research and marketing efforts we will need to absorb this new production, both here and abroad, the only way to effectively do that is with a marketing order and mandatory collection of an assessment. This will allow us to have enough money to pursue the kinds of promotion, domestic and foreign, shelled and in shell, that we need. The marketing order that Mike Adams and U.S. Pecan is proposing is the only opportunity to move forward on an industry wide scale. I urge all segments of the industry to put the decades of division aside and join forces in a this effort to allow all of us to continue with our new growth and reinvigoration of the pecan industry. We owe it to our sons and daughters(and ourselves). Please offer support in any manner possible. Thank you.

Tom Stevenson