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30

th March 2017

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PORTFOLIO PICKS

STOCK PICKS FOR APRIL 2017

Stock price in INR

COMPANY SECTOR

MARKET CAP(INR

CR) CMP (INR) RATING

POTENTIAL TARGET

POTENTIAL UPSIDE

INDUSINDBANK Bank- Private 85060 1422 ACCUMULATE 1600 12.49%

KARUR VYSYA BANK Bank- Private 6230 110 BUY 130 17.75%

EMAMI Consumer Staples 23152 1020 BUY 1200 17.65%

AMARAJABAT Auto Ancillary 14878 870 BUY 1010 16.09%

BAJAJ ELECTRICALS

Domestic Appliances 3245 320 BUY 370 15.63%

Time horizon of the recommended stock picks: 12 months unless specified

Market Outlook:

The rally in financial year FY16-17 was largely led by strong global and domestic liquidity while

lingering concerns over earnings revival as well as demonetisation still remain. Hence, investors need

to be cautious and use dips to get into quality stocks.

On the global front, India managed to live through Brexit, uncertainty around US Federal Reserve rate

hike as well as surprise victory of Donald Trump in US elections. On the domestic front, lackluster

earnings growth, as well as demonetization, weighed on the growth rate of the economy and revenues

of India Inc. It was not a smooth ride for the market, but global liquidity pushed the markets higher.

BSE Sensex rose around 16 percent so far in the financial year 2017 amid global and domestic

headwinds. The Nifty managed to bounce back in December after the index hit a low of 7,900 and after

it went in just one direction i.e. upwards to hit its fresh record high of 9,218 on March 17, 2017. The

liquidity-driven rally has already pushed benchmark indices above their key historic averages and some

bit of consolidation cannot be ruled out.

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A large portion of India's stock market performance was led by global factors. During the last 5months

MSCI developed market has given a return of 8.5 percent, followed by 5.5 percent by MSCI-EM where

MSCI-India has largely performed in-line with other EMs with 5 percent return in dollar term.

The liquidity-driven rally has already pushed benchmark indices above their key historic averages and

some bit of consolidation cannot be ruled out. Hence, investors need to be cautious and use dips to get

into quality stocks.

But, any extended phase of consolidation will not last long because the global economy is picking up

steam and government is reinforcing reform agenda. India will benefit from the undertaken reforms and

the possibility of further reforms given the recent electoral triumph.

Hence, the possibility of a revival in earnings growth is good especially by FY19 as the impact of

demo reverts, GST becoming efficient, increase in WPI (wholesale price index), higher government

spending and the start of private investment.

We are positive in select private sector banking, capital goods, domestic consumption oriented stocks

and select Pharma companies.

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UPDATE ON MARCH 2017 STOCK PICKS

STOCK CALL INITATED

AT (INR) DATE POTENTIAL

TARGET RATING PRICE (30 MAR 2017) REMARKS

TORRENT PHARMA 1297 23-Feb-17 1550 BUY 1497.15 Open

KAJARIA CERAMICS 565 23-Feb-17 650 ACCUMULATE 565.55 Open

ASIAN PAINTS 1009 23-Feb-17 1200 BUY 1070.10 Open

HINDUNILEVER 858 23-Feb-17 920 ACCUMULATE 919.20 Target achvd

Stock price in INR

Performance reports of recommended stock return in this report are carried on cash closing price and the call deemed to be open (for 12 months) on F&O expiry date of respective month until target is revised downward/upward depending on companies’ future performance. We have now revised this stock return performance policy from 30 Sep 2016(Oct derivative series) onwards and STOPLOSS BASIS stock calls are not given.

How Benchmark Index- Nifty moved in FY 17

OPEN: 7718 HIGH: 9218 CLOSE: 9174

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Global Economy Update:

1) Fed hikes Interest rates by 25 bps: The Federal Reserve goes for interest rates hike by 25 bps

and indicates two more rates cut this year with more observation as inflation approaches its

target. In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the committee

decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate. Also the Labor Department

reported a gain of 235,000 jobs and vigorous wage growth in a month, while jobless situation

improves and are near a 44-year low, which affects the stock market swelling. Chief Economist

at Indeed said Higher-wage jobs might be following educated, young workers, who are

increasingly living in dense, urban neighborhoods as other demographic groups move to the

suburbs

2) Trump administration seek to replace the trendy ObamaCare Policy: President Trump on Tuesday

urged Democrats to work with Republicans in Congress to repeal and replace the Affordable

Care Act. Trump said, I am also calling on this Congress to repeal and replace Obamacare with

reforms that expand choice, increase access, lower costs, and at the same time, provide better

health care.

3) G20 Meet, Financial leaders adopt some list of principle to strengthen economy flexibility: On

March 18, the global financial leaders adopt list of standard to boosts the economic resilience of

their economies aligned with future shocks, with the advice to strengthen policy frameworks to

garner the benefits of open markets. The list is organized around five broad themes—real

sector, public finance, private finance, monetary policy and external sector. The German

Finance Minister told after the meet - the risks for the global economy continue to persist of

course, some even say they have rather increased.

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4) Crude price remains in struggle after OPEC production cut: After the meet of OPEC officials on

Sunday urged OPEC member nations to cut their oil production as per the earlier conformity,

and caution that the petroleum market would remain disheartened if they didn’t. The major

concern is that an oil price down is that U.S. inventories have continued to raise YTD. As of

March 10, the commercial crude oil inventories in the U.S. totaled 528.2 million barrels, up from

492.2 million barrels a year earlier and 479.0 million barrels at the end of 2016. Further if global

economic growth improves going forward and OPEC continues to border production oil prices

could move higher.

Indian Economy in Growth path: Key Statistics:

1) FIIs inflows continuing and INR spiraling against USD after the Major victory by the ruling party in

India’s biggest State: D-street cheers after the major triumph in UP poll election which will give

the ruling party more supremacy to reforms the policies. Back of strong Government FII flows

continue in Indian capital market and also INR strengthening against USD rupee’s strength is

based on domestic factors, with large portfolio inflows attracted by India’s political stability, low

CAD, lower inflation and growth prospects, the net FII investment in March till Mar24,2017 is Rs.

21817 crore as per NSDL data.

2) GST on path to put into operation by July 1: India’s biggest tax reforms after Independence now

in a row for implement, which will give a big boosts in Indian economy. GST Council decided on

tax structure of 5%, 12%, 18% and 28% which cover most goods and services. Also, a cess will

levy on demerit and luxury goods. GST Council, comprises Union FM and state counterparts,

has approved the 4 legislations over a sequence of 12 meetings. The Council is scheduled to

meet again on March 31, and will finalize the rules and formats for the new indirect tax regime.

3) Banks along RBI faces confront to organize escalating NPA trouble and reforms the PSBs to

support growth: Banks aligned more than Rs 20,000 crore of NPAs to be sold to asset

reconstruction companies so far in March. Rs 6.8-lakh crore NPAs of public sector banks till

December 2016, 70% are big corporate houses, FM Jaitley said it is not that hundreds and

thousands of businesses have created this problem. The problem of big NPAs is confined to

essentially 30-50 companies, those need to be resolved. Also RBI Deputy Governor SS Mundra

said there is a need to further strengthen existing stressed asset resolution mechanisms, such

as oversight committees and joint lenders forums.

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STOCK PICKS

Company Data

Market Cap (cr) 85060

52 week high (Rs) 1414

52 week low (Rs) 912

3m average volume NSE 142421

Beta 1.4

Face value ( RS ) 10

Shareholding (%) Q3 FY 2016

Promoters 16.8%

Institutions 62.3%

Non-Institutions 20.9%

Key Financials

FY16

Total Interest Income (Cr) 11580.7

Net Interest Income (Cr) 7813.5

PAT(Cr) 5951.7

NIM (X) 3.2%

EPS (Rs.) 39.7

Book Value (Cr) 17697.2 (FY 16-Adjusted) P/E 24.2

P/BV 3.32

RONW(%) 13.2%

RoA (%) 1.6%

Indusind Bank Sector: Finance-Bank NSE CODE: INDUSINDBK

ACCUMULATE | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: Rs 1422 | Target: Rs 1600

TECHNICAL VIEW:

The stock has been in steady uptrend and making higher top higher bottom formation after it recently broke above 1250(previous high).

It is also above the positive crossover of 7-13 WMA(weekly moving average crossover) implying strength in the stock over medium term.

Going by the breakout pattern the stock is likely to target around INR 1600 in medium term of around 1 year.

For Q3 FY17 operating profit increased by 29% to Rs. 1363 crores and net profit increased by 29% to Rs. 751 crores over the same period last year. For the nine months’ period ending December 31st, 2016, operating profit increased by 30% to Rs. 3879 crores and net profit grew 27% to Rs. 2116 crores, against over the same period last year.

During the quarter core fee growth at 22% Y-o-Y and 7% Q-o-Q. Non-Interest Income to revenue remains healthy at 39%, while NIM Y-o-Y grew by 9 bps to 4.00% as compared to 3.91% last year same period; Deposit and CASA growth above industry - 38% and 46% Y-o-Y respectively, and also Credit growth above industry i.e. 25% Y-o-Y.

IndusInd Bank plans to raise Rs 1,000 crore through tier- I bonds to strengthen capital adequacy for business growth. Absolute net worth of the bank increased to Rs 19,883 crore as on Q3, from Rs 17,696 crore as on Q4FY16. Tier-I and overall capital adequacy ratios stood at 14.74% and 15.31%, respectively, as on Q3FY17.

Also, cross-selling customer base may lift the share of non-retail loans to 25% over three years. It highlighted that the CASA franchise was doing well and recent rate cuts may add to the upside. Furthermore, it sees a scope for another 100 basis points cut in rates in three years. On risk, it sees pressure on corporate loan growth on the back of soft demand.

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Company Data

Market Cap (cr) 6230

52 week high (Rs) 111

52 week low (Rs) 80

3m average volume NSE 1635822

Beta 1.0

Face value ( RS ) 2

Shareholding (%) Q3 FY2016

Promoters 2.1%

Institutions 43.0%

Non-Institutions 54.9%

Key Financials FY16 FY15 FY14 Total Interest Income (Cr) 5443.4 5395.9 5115.9 Net Interest Income (Cr) 1781.4 2046.7 1848.1

PAT(Cr) 569.1 465.4 430.6

NIM (X) 3.1 2.7 2.5

EPS (Rs.) 46.6 39.9 40.1

Book Value (Cr) 4572.9 4246.0 3326.3 (FY 16-Adjusted) P/E 9.5 13.6

8.9

P/BV 1.2 1.6 1.2

RONW(%) 12.4% 10.9% 12.9%

RoA (%) 1.0% 0.9% 0.8%

Karur Vysya Bank Ltd. Sector: Finance-Bank NSE CODE: KARURVYSYA

BUY | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: Rs 110 | Target: Rs 130

KVB reported muted operating performance in Q3 FY 17 delivering PAT of Rs 115 cr and slow loan growth. For Q3 FY17 operating profit decreased by 17% to Rs. 272 crores and net profit decreased by 25% to Rs. 115 crores over the same period last year. For the nine months’ period ending December 31st, 2016, operating profit decline by 10% to Rs. 874 crores and net profit decline 10% to Rs. 388 crores, against over the same period last year.

During Q3FY17 total advances grew by 1.54% to Rs. 38459 crore Y-o-Y, corporate advances registered a de growth of 6.4% to Rs. 12890 crores; Commercial advances grew by 7.01% to Rs. 13035 crores; Agriculture and retail registered growth of 3.1% and 7.4% Y-o-Y.

KVB launched FASTags app to keep pace with technology across the globe. FASTag launched in association with Indian Highways Management Company, subsidiary of NHAI, in which pre loaded tags affix to vehicles help them move on without having to join queues at toll plazas and handing cash for payment. It will benefit the customers with faster pace of technology.

We like the bank for its diversified asset book and gradual improvement in liability franchise, inclined towards retail deposit. Retail loan book grow 7% y-o-y.

TECHNICAL VIEW:

Karurvysya Bank has been in moving up beautifully in an ascending channel. Over the last one year the stock has been rangebound in price zone of 102-80 and recently it has broken above the 1 year high with strong volumes thereby indicating strength.

It has also given bullish W pattern breakout in its uptrend and momentum and trend following indicator (MACD) are showing strength

The stock will move towards it pattern target of INR 130 in long term time frame of 1 year

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Company Data

Market Cap (cr) 23152

52 week high (Rs) 1260

52 week low (Rs) 901

3m average volume NSE 160568

Beta 0.99

Face value ( RS ) 1

Shareholding (%) Q3 FY 2016

Promoters 72.7%

Institutions 19.1%

Non-Institutions 8.2%

Key Financials

FY16 FY15 FY14

Net Sales (Cr) 2623.8 2217.2 1820.8

EBITDA (Cr) 683.8 540.1 441.3

PAT (Cr) 359.1 485.6 402.5 Net Profit Margin (%) 13.7% 21.9% 22.1%

EPS (RS) 15.8 21.4 17.7

Book Value (Cr) 1403.1 1230.6 932.1

P/E 58.3 46.6 24.8

P/BV 15.1 18.5 10.6

RoNW(%) 25.6% 39.5% 43.2%

RoCE(%) 20.5% 37.6% 40.9%

EMAMI Ltd. Sector: Personal Care NSE CODE: EMAMILTD

BUY | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: 1020 | Target: RS 1200

TECHNICAL VIEW:

The stock is moving in a range and is clearly within symmetrical formation triangle formed over last 18 months. Such pattern formed with Coppock Curve (momentum indicator) turning up in weekly charts indicate that price action will move up shortly.

Bolllinger band in daily chart have converged indicating strong price action in short to medium term

The stock is likely to move up and target 1 year time horizon will be INR 1200

The company is engaged in manufacturing and marketing of health, beauty and personal care products that are based entirely on Ayurveda formulation. Emami Limited has over 30 brands under its portfolio.

In Q3FY17 domestic revenue of the company grew by 3% Y-o-Y, whereas consol revenue grew by 0.2% in the quarter and 9% 9MFY17. The EBITDA for the quarter grew by 4% Y-o-Y and 16% 9MFY17. The PAT for the quarter has also posted a flat growth and it lower by 9% during 9MFY17 due to higher amortization of intangible assets.

To increase volume growth and also push its slow moving brands company reforms its distribution architecture, instead of relying on the traditional wholesale channels, it will up its direct retail reach. Wholesale constitutes near 50%-55% of total revenue company now aiming it down to 40%.

Management commentary:

Despite challenging domestic and international macroeconomic factors company able to perform satisfactorily. After demonetization Emami identified few focus areas to accentuate on, like increasing direct retail reach to 8 lakhs outlets by FY18, IT enablement with focus to increase sales for its effectiveness and aggressive new launches for Q1 next year. With the post demonetization situation improving and the consumer sentiments getting back on track gradually Emami are poised to capture this positive sentiments and target a good performance in days to come.

We are seeing little revival and we really do not expect the liquidity crunch to continue in Q1 next year so by the end of this Q4 I think the problems should resolve and going ahead we should see a good growth coming back.

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Company Data

Market Cap (cr) 14878

52 week high (Rs) 1080

52 week low (Rs) 820

3m average volume NSE 364869

Beta 0.63

Face value ( RS ) 1

Shareholding (%) Q3 FY 2016

Promoters 52.1%

Institutions 29.6%

Non-Institutions 18.3%

Key Financials

FY16 FY15 FY14

Net Sales (Cr) 4690.7 4211.3 3436.7

EBITDA (Cr) 816.9 709.1 560.3

PAT (Cr) 489.5 410.9 367.4 Net Profit Margin (%) 10.4% 9.7% 10.7%

EPS (RS) 28.6 24.1 21.5

Book Value (Cr) 2101.6 1699.5 1362.7

P/E 31.0 35.0 18.2

P/BV 7.1 8.4 4.9

RoNW(%) 23.3% 24.2% 27.0%

RoCE(%) 21.5% 22.1% 24.4%

Amara Raja Batteries Ltd. Sector: Auto Ancillary - Batteries NSE CODE: AMARAJABAT

BUY | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: Rs 870 |Target: Rs 1010

TECHNICAL VIEW:

It is consolidating and now at its strong multiple support zone of 830-850, making volume spikes on upmove for past week weeks which indicates accumulation.

Major momentum technical indicators like weekly RSI has shown positive divergence and weekly MACD turned up. This indicates buying at current price zone and reversal likely.

The stock seems to start the upmove and will target INR 965-975 and then will move towards INR 1010 levels.

Company produces lead acid storage batteries. Segment include industrial batteries (amaron sleek, amaron quanta, amaron volt, power stack) and automotive batteries(PRO, FLO, GO, Black, Fresh, Hi-way, Harvest, Shield, PRO bike rider and optima).

In Q3FY17 revenue of the company grew by 9.7% Y-o-Y to Rs. 1501 crores, whereas it grew by 14.6% in 9MFY17. The EBITDA for the quarter de grew by 11.3% Y-o-Y to Rs.203.9. The PAT for the quarter has also posted a de growth and it lower by 17.6% to Rs. 112.3 crores during Q3FY17.

Due to demonetization all business segments have been affected, OE business in 4-wheelers and 2-wheelers, 2-wheelers largely impacted due to the same. The company able to manage its’ growth trajectory in 4W replacement segment.

Management Commentary:

Volume and revenue growth is in line with the plan and industrial applications continuous improvements in operational efficiencies are supporting the management efforts in remaining aggressive competitiveness. Due to demonetization and increase in raw material cost effects the companies Q3 growth and profitability which will get restored very soon.

Capacity expansion progression as per the plan in the automotive batteries sector and the capacity utilization in all plants are at healthy level.

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Company Data

Market Cap (cr) 3245

52 week high (Rs) 330

52 week low (Rs) 185

3m average volume NSE 274069

Beta 1.24

Face value ( RS ) 2

Shareholding (%) Q3 FY 2016

Promoters 63.4%

Institutions 15.3%

Non-Institutions 21.3%

Key Financials

FY16

Net Sales (Cr) 4611.9

EBITDA (Cr) 259.4

PAT (Cr) 95.4 Net Profit Margin (%) 2.1%

EPS (RS) 9.5

Book Value (Cr) 750.9

P/E 20.8

P/BV 2.6

RoNW(%) 12.7%

RoCE(%) 10.5%

Bajaj Electricals Ltd. Sector: Domestic Appliances NSE CODE: BAJAJELEC

BUY | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: Rs 320 |Target: Rs 370

Company’s business consists of lighting, consumer durables, engineering and projects and others. Lighting includes lamps, tubes and luminaries, consumer durables include appliances and fans, engineering and projects include transmission line towers telecommunication towers and special projects include rural electrification projects and others include wind energy.

In Q3FY17 revenue of the company stood at Rs. 1055.1 crores down by 7.1% Y-o-Y, whereas 9 month revenue de grew by 7.4% and stood at Rs. 3020.2 crores. The PAT for the quarter has also posted a de growth and it stood at Rs. 29.7 crores against 36 crores last year same quarter.

During Q3FY17, Consumer Products Segment achieved total Revenue of Rs.589.54 Cr, de-growth of 14.6%. Engineering and Projects Segment (EPC) registered growth of 4.6% with total revenue of Rs. 465.40 Cr as against Rs. 444.88 Cr in the corresponding quarter of the previous quarter.

Management Commentary:

Consumer Products Segment registered a good performance during the quarter, mainly due to effective procurement, better sales realisation, and sales growth in certain product categories, as a result of which the margins have improved by 1.3% from Rs. 34.91 Cr to Rs. 37.74 Cr.

On the positive side, the rollout of RREP (Range, Reach Expansion Programme) has been progressing well and the liquidity issues have also been addressed by the government, which would have positive impact on the overall performance of the Company in the coming period.

TECHNICAL VIEW:

Bajaj Electric has broken out of its strong resistance zone of 307 after June 2015 and that too with higest volumes of 5 years. Such price volume breakout suggests that the stock price will be in new higher zone as it has started its uptrend. The stock now has support around 275 which was a cup and shoulder breakout point.

Pattern target will be minimum 150% Fibonacci retracement level of the breakout point. We expect of INR 370 in 1 year time period.

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Research Disclaimer

RATING PARAMETER

BUY We expect the stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months

ACCUMULATE We expect the stock to deliver 6% - 15% returns over the next 12 months

REDUCE We expect the stock to deliver 0% - 5% returns over the next 12 months

SELL We expect the stock to deliver negative returns over the next 12 months NOTE Target prices are for a period of 12-month perspective. Returns stated in the rating parameter are for our internal

benchmark.

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Peerless Securities Limited Registered Office: 1, Chowringhee Square, 2nd Floor, Kolkata- 700 069 Phone: +91-33-4050-2700/6450-2002/2243-5942, Fax: +91-33-2243 6941 Institutional Office: 11-A, Mittal Towers, 1st floor, Nariman Point, Mumbai – 400 021 Phone: +91-22-2284 1411, 22-6630 3810, Fax: +91-22-2284 1316

SEBI REGN. NO. NSE: INB/INF 230821137, BSE: INB 010821131, NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-96-99, CDSL: IN-DP-CDSL-505-2009, ARN – 2103

SEBI Registration Number as Research Analyst: INH300002365