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September 3, 2018 Peerless Master Picks- OCTOBER, 2018 Edition. For Private Circulation Only
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Page 1: Peerless Master Picks- · Market Outlook Indian equities trades at premium valuation compared to EM peers is a key concern, weak domestic and global liquidity could hurt markets in

September 3, 2018

Peerless Master Picks- OCTOBER, 2018 Edition.

For Private Circulation Only

Page 2: Peerless Master Picks- · Market Outlook Indian equities trades at premium valuation compared to EM peers is a key concern, weak domestic and global liquidity could hurt markets in

Peerless Securities Master Picks

Stock Picks for October, 2018

September 29, 2018

COMPANY SECTOR CMP

(INR) RATING

MARKET

CAP(INR

CR)

POTENTIAL

TARGET POTENTIAL

UPSIDE

MAHINDRA &

MAHINDRA Automobiles 861 Buy 107,001 1000 16%

SUNPHARMA Pharmaceuticals 623 Buy 149,561 730 17’%

SIEMENS Siemens 945 Accumulate 33,188 1050 11%

HDFC LTD

HFC 1755 Accumulate 294036.7 1950 11.7%

ASIAN PAINTS Decorative Paints 1293 Accumulate 123,545 1430 10.6%

(Current prices as on closing prices on September 28, 2018 in NSE)

Note: All price target for next 12 months.

Page 3: Peerless Master Picks- · Market Outlook Indian equities trades at premium valuation compared to EM peers is a key concern, weak domestic and global liquidity could hurt markets in

Peerless Securities Master Picks

Market Outlook

Indian equities trades at premium valuation compared to EM peers is a key

concern, weak domestic and global liquidity could hurt markets in near term:

� Equity markets likely to trade volatile in near term with fear of escalation trade war after proposed US led

tariff hike in various Chinese products to hurt investors’ sentiments. � Short term reaction of equity market could be very chaotic and non-orderly due to some confidence crisis

in fixed income market on rising yield. Rising yield always bring negative surprises for companies relying heavily on market borrowings like non banking financials, housing finance companies. These companies could face challenges to maintain their growth momentum.

� The lack of breadth among rising stocks and uncertainty going into key elections next year are now

becoming common refrains for those positioning for less rosy future returns. Valuations have also gotten stretched and history points to negative absolute and relative returns when multiples get so far above average.

� Rising crude oil prices are key risk to markets and it is inflationary will increase Current account deficit

(CAD) is adversely impacting domestic currency. Adverse currency movements in many emerging markets including India is key reason for FPI selling. Domestic flow in equities may slow down on weak sentiment in near term.

� We remain equal-weight India from a structural perspective. Still now India puts up a brave face in

emerging markets equity sell-off due to macro recovery and resilient GDP growth. We see 12-15% earnings growth in India in FY19.

� We like select IT and Pharma stocks on signs of margin stabilization and tactical move on domestic

currency weakness. � Rural focused consumption stocks and two wheelers companies could see higher demand on rising

government spending in rural India ahead of general election.

Page 4: Peerless Master Picks- · Market Outlook Indian equities trades at premium valuation compared to EM peers is a key concern, weak domestic and global liquidity could hurt markets in

Peerless Securities Master Picks

How Benchmark Index- Nifty moved in September 2018

OPEN:11751 HIGH: 11751 CLOSE:10930

Page 5: Peerless Master Picks- · Market Outlook Indian equities trades at premium valuation compared to EM peers is a key concern, weak domestic and global liquidity could hurt markets in

Peerless Securities Master Picks

BUY | PERIOD: 12 Months

CMP: Rs.861 | Target: Rs.1000

Mahindra&Mahindra Limited. Sector: Automobiles | NSECODE: M&M

Mahindra and Mahindra Limited (M&M) is an Indian multinational car manufacturing corporation headquartered in Mumbai,India. It is one of the largest vehicle manufacturers by production in India and the largest manufacturer of tractors in the world. It is a part of the Mahindra Group, an Indian conglomerate and is engaged in the manufacture of passenger cars, commercial vehicles and two wheelers.

Investment Theme � The company started FY19 on a strong note, with both the

automotive and tractor businesses reporting impressive numbers. The revenue for the quarter grew 22.8 percent at Rs 13,358 crore. Growth in automotive and farm equipment (predominantly tractor) stood at 22.6 percent and 24.2 percent, respectively. While volume growth was robust, the healthy topline performance resulted in economies of scale. The company managed significant margin expansion, with automotive and farm equipment earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) margin expanding 260 basis points year-on-year (YoY) and 250 bps, respectively.The strong operating performance led to impressive bottomline growth.The numbers were supported by lower base as the industry volumes were hurt in the year-ago quarter due to the slowdown in demand preceding the implementation of GST in July 2017 and commercial vehicle volumes were adversely impacted due to supply constraints arising from implementation of BS IV norms.

� M&M is the market leader in tractors and has been gaining market share for the last three-to-four years. While the tractor business experiences three-to-four years of upcycle, the management is optimistic that the strong momentum seen in FY19 will continue in FY20. It has revised its growth forecast for this segment from the erstwhile 8-10 percent to 12-14 percent for FY19.A normal monsoon, high reservoir levels, in line Rabi harvest, hike in kharif minimum support prices and rise in non-farm income on the back of an increase in infrastructure activities are all providing strong opportunities for tractor sales.Newly launched Trakstar (by subsidiary Gromax) has doubled its volume in the quarter gone by. It is seeing strong traction in farm machines, although the business is still quite small.The company is carrying below industry inventory levels which is a strong positive. The company witnessed tractors sales grew by 7% for the month of August 2018.

Company Data

Market Cap (cr) 107,001

52 week high (Rs) 993

52 week low (Rs) 615.5

3m average volume NSE 2,184,330

Beta 0.60

Face value ( RS ) 5

Key Financials

Category FY18 FY17 FY16

Net Sales (Cr) 49722 45399 41725

EBITDA (Cr) 7260.4 5860.1 5469.9

PAT (Cr) 4356 3643.4 3204.6

Net Profit Margin

(%) 8.94 8.27 7.83

EPS (RS) 36.6 30.7 53

Book Value (Rs.) 254.6 451.2

378.4

P/BV(x) 2.9 2.8 3.2

RoNW(%) 14.37% 13.6% 14.29%

RoCE(%) 12.77% 12.01% 12.49%

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Peerless Securities Master Picks

� The company has an interesting launch pipeline.It recently launched Marazzo, a multi-purpose vehicle, which will compete with segment leader Toyota Innova Crysta, Maruti Ertiga and Renault Lodgy. Alongwith Marazzo, it has Mahindra XUV700,Flagship SUV code name Y400 and SUV S201. The success of upcoming launches will define the automotive outlook for FY20.The company in order to retain its current leadership in the segment has started focussing on EV(electric vehicles) projects with strong contribution from its subsidiary Pininfarnia, and is planning to develop an electric hatchback.The company is in talks with U.S. automaker Ford to start exploring potential of getting into markets of Indonesia, Russia and penetrate deeper into the South African market.These developments will help the company to improve its scale and gain competitive advantage over its peers.

� Going forward,the macro(rural recovery)appears supportive for the tractor business. In the automotive segment, new product launches should help sustain the momentum.The new launches are expected to improve market share,which has been lagging its key competitors.This will also help to expand the revenues and the margin.The company derives significant value from its subsidiaries. The core automobile business trades close to 15 times FY20 projected earnings.This is at a steep discount to peer groups that typically trade at multiples of 17-20 times and its core business is still available at a compelling valuation for long term investors.

Technical Outlook � The stock has been in uptrend making higher top higher bottom

formation and now in correction mode. The stock is also close to its 30wema(weekly moving average) and in the last 1 year, whenever the stock price came here, the price took support around it and bounced back.

� The stock price is also maintaining its uptrend following uptrending line and support comes around Rs 850 levels. Short term weakness still persists and it may continue in immediate short term but given the stochasctic signal in weekly chart around oversold zone and RSI around 50, the stock looks like to bounce from trendline support zone.

� We expect the price to move up in medium term after correction phase and expected price target is Rs 1000 which is close to its previous high.

Shareholding Pattern

Page 7: Peerless Master Picks- · Market Outlook Indian equities trades at premium valuation compared to EM peers is a key concern, weak domestic and global liquidity could hurt markets in

Peerless Securities Master Picks

BUY | PERIOD: 12 Months

CMP: Rs.623 | Target: Rs.730

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited. Sector: Pharmaceuticals | NSECODE: SUNPHARMA

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited is an Indian multinational pharmaceutical company headquartered in Mumbai, Maharashtra that manufactures and sells pharmaceutical formulations and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) primarily in India and the United States. The company offers formulations in various therapeutic areas,suchas cardiology, psychiatry, neurology, gastroenterology and diabetology. It also provides APIs such as warfarin, carbamazepine, etodolac, and clorazepate, as well as anticancers, steroids, peptides, sex hormones, and controlled substances.They also produce intermediates in a range of dosage forms, including tablets, capsules, injectables, ointments, creams and liquid.

Investment Theme

� India’s largest drug-maker reported a very strong financials for Q1FY19.It reported a consolidated net profit of rupees 982.8 crore.In the same quarter last year, it had reported a net loss of Rs 423 crore.Revenues for Q1FY19 rose 16.7 percent and EBITDA margin for the quarter was 21.3 percent.This was aided by strong India and US sales.The company is betting big on speciality products to drive growth and climb up the value chain.The company has a portfolio of about 10 specialty products, of which five are already in the market, two more are likely to be commercialised in the next few quarters; and two more await U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s approval.The company has invested significant resources in this initiative in the past; and will continue to invest in building the business.This will help the company to strategically place itself in both domestic and global market. This will also help the company to face stiff pricing competition from US market and help to maintain its margins. Thus, being able to continue to earn reasonable returns on investments and further business enhancement.

� Recent rupee depreciation will have a positive impact on export-driven pharma companies. Sun Pharma tends to benefit as approximately 70 per cent of its business is export oriented,and is one of the best-placed amongst large domestic players to have made large upfront investments in US specialty. The cheaper export will definitely improve the earnings outlook.

Key Financials

Category FY18 FY17 FY16

Net Sales (Cr) 27254.3 31931 29145

EBITDA (Cr) 6447 10712 8816

PAT (Cr) 2634 7836 5657

Net Profit

Margin (%) 9.97% 25.02% 19.85%

EPS (RS) 9 29 18.9

Book Value (Rs.) 175 168.5 154

P/BV(X) 3.1 4.5 6

RoNW(%) 5.67% 19% 13.78%

RoCE(%) 11.13% 21.7% 18.35%

Company Data

Market Cap (cr) 149,561

52 week high (Rs) 679.30

52 week low (Rs) 435

3m average volume NSE 6,386,068

Beta 0.62

Face value ( RS ) 1

Page 8: Peerless Master Picks- · Market Outlook Indian equities trades at premium valuation compared to EM peers is a key concern, weak domestic and global liquidity could hurt markets in

Peerless Securities Master Picks

� The company has developed a strong pipeline of speciality products.It obtained USFDA approval for drug Yonsa(cancer),Cequa(dry eye) and Xelpros(glaucoma).It also received approval for its speciality product ILUMYA (psoriasis) from USFDA, Australian TGA and European Commission.The management expects these products to be a meaningful opportunity going forward.As per the management the company has been investing in building its global specialty business for the last few years so that they continue to earn reasonable returns on investments.It will also help it to climb the value chain and deal with increasing U.S. market pressures.Development of speciality products will help the company to withstand the changing dynamics of this sector,especially the declining ratios on investments in the U.S. generic business.Specialty-related spend was high in FY18 at $165 million compared with $123 million the year before, and

� could touch $200 million in FY19.

� Going forward, the company is focussing on building front end presence in U.S. market. It also plans to increase the specialty contribution to the consolidated revenues in the long term.The India business is likely to normalise this year and favorable demographics would ensure reasonable volume growth in India but the U.S. generics market would continue to be challenging in the current financial year given the pricing pressures.But overall the company is expected to have a relatively positive year and is expected to deliver a double-digit year-on-year growth in consolidated revenues for the current year. We find Sunpharma a suitable buy opportunity at current levels.

Technical Outlook

� The stocks has been in downtrend for last 2 years and after prolong correction, price moved up and broke out of the lower top lower pattern formation. This indicates change of long term trend reversal from down to up.

� The stock thereafter consolidated and formed a W pattern formation and on last month, price broke above the W pattern which suggests strength and upmove for the stock in medium term.

� Technical indicator Fast stochastic in its uptrend in last 10 years shows that the stock rallied whenever fast stochastic remained above 80 zone in monthly chart and currently the indicator is above 80 levels indicating strength.

� We expect that the w pattern of the chart is likely to be filled up on the upside and target come to Rs 730 in period of 12 months.

Shareholding Pattern

Page 9: Peerless Master Picks- · Market Outlook Indian equities trades at premium valuation compared to EM peers is a key concern, weak domestic and global liquidity could hurt markets in

Peerless Securities Master Picks

Siemens Limited. Sector: Capital Goods|NSECODE: SIEMENS

Siemens Limited is the Indian subsidiary of German multinational engineering and electronics conglomerate Siemens that focuses on IT and management services.It is engaged in manufacturing of electric motors, generators, transformers and electricity distribution, and control apparatus; general purpose machinery, and electrical signaling, safety or traffic-control equipment.It segments include Power &Gas, Energy Management, Building Technologies, Mobility, Digital Factory, Process Industries & Drives, Healthcare, Metal Technologies & Others, including services provided to group companies and lease rentals.

.

Investment Theme

� The company reported a decent set of numbers for the latest quarter.It posted 25.5 percent jump in standalone Profit After Tax (PAT) at Rs 204.4 crore for the quarter ended June 30, on the back of higher revenues compared to Rs.162.9 crore in the same quarter last year.The revenue in the third quarter increased by 14.6 percent compared to the same period last year.The EBITDA margin expanded by 30 bps, due to fall in raw material expenses as a proportion of sales.However, the PAT margin fell due to the rise in tax and depreciation.The company follows October-September financial year.

� The new orders for the period stands at Rs.2,840.70 crore.As per the management the order growth of the business is robust across most of their divisions.At present, for Siemens India orderbook, contribution from the private sector remains stable in the 40 percent and 60 percent range.The company sees signs of revival of capital expenditure in India.Recently, it has acquired two large projects of more than Rs.1 billion value, from power and mobility segments.Siemens’ subsidiary company -- Siemens Gamesa Renewable Power has bagged a wind energy order from ReNew Power for construction of 150 MW wind farm located in the Kutch district, in the state of Gujarat.However,large infrastructure orders in railways,power generation and transmission was muted.Going forward, the management sees revival signs in these sectors and large project opportunities.The company is strongly focussing on area of digitalization.

Company Data

Market Cap (cr) 33,188

52 week high (Rs) 1339.4

52 week low (Rs) 901

3m average volume NSE 238,607

Beta 1.31

Face value ( RS ) 2

Key Financials*

Category Sep17 Sep16 Sep14

Net Sales (Cr) 11269 10973 10673

EBDITA (Cr) 1306 1137 1136

PAT (Cr) 1134 2888 1183

Net Profit Margin

(%) 10.29% 26.71% 11.25%

EPS (RS) 31.8 81.1 33.2

Book Value (Rs.) 216.4 184.9 144

P/BV(x) 5.5 6.7 9.2

RoNW(%) 14.71% 43.87% 22.08%

RoCE(%) 14.23% 42.24% 21.15%

ACCUMULATE | PERIOD: 12 Months

CMP: Rs.945| Target: Rs.1050

*The company follows October-September financial year.

Page 10: Peerless Master Picks- · Market Outlook Indian equities trades at premium valuation compared to EM peers is a key concern, weak domestic and global liquidity could hurt markets in

Peerless Securities Master Picks

� Recently, it has launched its digitalization platform ‘Mindsphere’ in India along with four application centersMindsphere is open, cloud-based operating system for the Internet of Things (IoT) that connects products, plants, systems and machines with advanced analytics capabilities.It has also signed a Memorandum of Understanding(MOU) with Bangalore International Airport

� Limited to jointly drive the digital transformation of Kempegowda Airport.Another step in this regard is its acquisition of U.K. based Lightwork Design to deliver advanced 3D data visualizaton.This will provide customers with enhanced 3D data visualization, high-end rendering and virtual reality(VR) capabilities via its comprehensive suite of 3D product lifecycle management (PLM) applications.

� Going forward,Siemens is a technology powerhouse that has stood for engineering excellence, innovation, quality and reliability.the company is focussing on leveraging the rising digitisation trend and base business are likely to drive the earnings growth in upward direction. The company is focusing in the areas of electrification, automation and digitalization. It is one of the leading producers of technologies for combined cycle turbines for power generation; power transmission and distribution solutions.And, with the Indian economy witnessing infrastructural growth the company gains a competitive edge. Given its wide portfolio, the company is best placed to benefit from recovery in capex cycle as and when it happens.

Technical Outlook

� The stock in long term broke out of ascending triangle pattern and thereafter it has been in correcting for last for last few months. Currently the stock has come close to its horizontal support line around 940-935.

� Technical indicators stochastic and Relative strength index both are in oversold zone and such dual combination of oversold condition occurred just only 3 times in last 10 years. This gives wonderful opportunity to enter the stock as in last two times, the stock made strong rally from such conditions and henceforth it looks likely that price will try to form bottom around current levels upto 900 levels.

� We expect the price to move up thereafter as structural pattern of the stock is strong and price target is around Rs 1050 in time frame of 12 months.

Shareholding Pattern

Page 11: Peerless Master Picks- · Market Outlook Indian equities trades at premium valuation compared to EM peers is a key concern, weak domestic and global liquidity could hurt markets in

Peerless Securities Master Picks

ACCUMULATE | PERIOD: 12 Months

CMP: Rs.1755 | Target: Rs.1950

HDFC Limited. Sector: HFC |NSECODE: HDFC

Housing Development Finance Corporation Limited or HDFC is a financial conglomerate based in Mumbai.The Company is engaged in financing by way of loans for the purchase or construction of residential houses, commercial real estate and certain other purposes. The Company's segments include loans, life insurance, general insurance, asset management and others. It also provides portfolio management, mutual fund, property investment management, project management, investment consultancy and property related services.Its subsidiaries include HDFC Investments Ltd., HDFC Trustee Co. Ltd. and HDFC Asset Management Co. Ltd., among others.

Investment Theme

� HDFC reported a strong performance of 54% rise in net profit at

Rs.2,190 crore after a muted performance in net profit last year, which was due to the impact of new Ind AS accounting standards. A healthy growth in interest income and assets under management this quarter was aided the profit growth.Growth ion the profit was also aided by a dividend income of Rs.511 crore from HDFC bank.The revenue from operations grew by 19.7 percent year-on-year.Net interest income (NII) during the quarter jumped 20 percent year-on-year basis and 3.5 percent on quarterly basis.Total loans sold during the preceding twelve months were lower at Rs 13,245 crore as against Rs 13,841 crore in the previous year.

� The company continues to show its class and consistency by maintaining its strong operating metrics over time and rate cycles. It is witnessing strong AUM/loan growth and stable spreads (despite Ind-AS transition) as positives offsetting minor blip in asset quality.It continues to hold an attractive bouquet of associates that are strong businesses franchises and add value to the parent organization.Gross non-performing assets (NPAs) stood at 1.18 percent while net NPAs of which those in individual loans stood at 0.66 percent while non-individual gross NPAs increased to 2.32 percent.Provisions stood at Rs 19.70 crore witnessing an 18 per cent growth in the overall loan book on Assets Under Management (AUM) basis for the quarter ended June.Individual loan book grew 19 percent.Total loans sold during the preceding twelve months were lower at Rs 13,245 crore as against Rs 13,841 crore in the previous year.The non-individual loan book grew 18 percent and individual loans comprise 72 percent of its total assets.Provisions stood at Rs 19.70 crore witnessing an 18 per cent growth in the overall loan book on Assets Under Management (AUM) basis for the quarter ended June.

Company Data

Market Cap (cr) 294036.7

52 week high (Rs) 2052.95

52 week low (Rs) 1638

3m average volume NSE 2,521,405

Beta 0.81

Face value ( RS ) 2

Key Financials

Category FY18 FY17 FY16

Net Sales (Cr) 69141 61087 53257

EBITDA (Cr) 37674 34710 32029

PAT (Cr) 13601 8628 7973

Net Profit Margin

(%) 19.67% 14.13% 14.98%

EPS (RS) 98.9 68.3 64.1

Book Value (Rs.) 544.4 399.9 336.7

P/BV(X) 3.5 4 3.4

RoNW(%) 18.78% 18.4% 20.03%

RoCE(%) 4.42% 3.42% 4.27%

Page 12: Peerless Master Picks- · Market Outlook Indian equities trades at premium valuation compared to EM peers is a key concern, weak domestic and global liquidity could hurt markets in

Peerless Securities Master Picks

Shareholding Pattern

� Given its market leadership position, HDFC is envisaged to be a key

beneficiary of government’s/regulator’s thrust on the housing sector, lending growth visibility and India’s mortgage market is attractive given favorable demographics. Low mortgage penetration at growing GDP is a positive for the company.

� In the current scenario where the cost of funds for the NBFC/HFC have increased and will eventually impact their asset quality. HDFC is better placed comparatively against its peers as its taking a conservative approach and has better asset quality backed by strong know how. It has best in class cost ratios and adequate provisioning buffer will ensure steady operational performance. Being a market leader in HFC segment it will be least impacted by 50-60 bps expansion in cost of funds faced by the entire segment. This will lead to contraction of margins in the coming quarters.NIM will also get impacted negatively along with a negative loan growth. However, as raising funds comparatively at lower rate would be positive for HDFC and as most NBFC/HFC are facing ALM, HDFC could expand its market share in mortgage markets. The company has maintained its spreads in the narrow range of 2.20-2.35 percent over a long period of time irrespective of the interest rate environment. It has a well-balanced ALM profile and is adequately capitalized.

Technical Outlook � The stock is in strong upmove in long term timeframe and in

weekly charts the stock is close to its 100wema (exponential weekly moving average). Historically whenever the stock comes to around this 100wema, pricewise it consolidates, build a base and then starts its upmove over medium term. Henceforth the current price now is giving good opportunity to enter the stock for medium term upmove.

� Technical indicators, RSI and stochastic in weekly charts are in

oversold zone and historically from current levels, these indicators turn up and shows strength. Henceforth, the stock price are likely to show strength once the price settles down and build a base around current levels to 1680 zone.

� We expect price target of Rs 1950 to be achieved, which is

horizontal resistance line in time frame of around 12 months.

Page 13: Peerless Master Picks- · Market Outlook Indian equities trades at premium valuation compared to EM peers is a key concern, weak domestic and global liquidity could hurt markets in

Peerless Securities Master Picks

Asian Paints Limited. Sector: Decorative Paint |NSECODE: ASIANPAINT Asian Paints Limited is an Indian multinational paint company headquartered in Mumbai. The Company is engaged in the business of manufacturing, selling and distribution of paints, coatings, products related to home decor, bath fittings and providing of related services.It’s business segments are Paints and Home Improvement. It operates in over 20 countries and has over 30 manufacturing facilities, servicing consumers in over 65 countries.

Investment Theme

� Asian Paints one of the largest paint companies in India, started off the financial year 2018-19 with 30 percent profit growth in June quarter, backed by operational performance and product price hike. The growth was also due to low base in the previous year.The profit rose for the fourth straight quarter.The consolidated profit for the year stood at Rs. 571.3 crore. Revenue from operations grew by 15.1 percent year-on-year to Rs 4,390 crore with double digit volume growth in the decorative paint business.EBITDA grew by 31.4 percent year-on-year to Rs. 874.5 and the margins expanded by 250 bps to 19.9 percent, this was due to fall in other expenses as a proportion of sales.Margins also improved as the recent price hikes and cost control measures offset inflationary cost pressures.

� The domestic operations of the company is on the track.The domestic

decorative business continues to do well. The industrial paints business witnessed strong growth The domestic decorative business continues to do well. The industrial paints business witnessed strong growth.The home improvement business (Sleek and Ess Ess) is in expansion mode and reported a sharp jump in revenue to Rs 91 crore in Q1 FY19 from Rs 63 crore YoY.The home improvement business (Sleek and Ess Ess) is in expansion mode and reported a sharp jump in revenue to Rs 91 crore in Q1 FY19 from Rs 63 crore YoY.Capacity expansion in Visakhapatnam and Mysuru (both having 3 million KL per annum capacity),wherein commercial production of paints and intermediaries at its Mysuru plant.This will help company with robust volumes growth.

� The company is witnessing some margin pressures due to rise in cost of raw materials.Moreover, a large proportion of these raw materials (30-35 percent) are imported. Hence, adverse movement of the rupee against the dollar is adding to industry woes.The company has been taking price hikes at different intervals mainly to offset the higher cost of raw materials but with revised GST rate it had to delay any further price hike.This may contract the margins in the coming quarters.However,the company is seeing rising demand in the

Company Data

Market Cap (cr) 123,545

52 week high (Rs) 1490.60

52 week low (Rs) 1090.10

3m average volume NSE 1,122,438

Beta 0.76

Face value ( RS ) 1

Key Financials

Category FY18 FY17 FY16

Net Sales (Cr)

17045.2 15324 14485

EBITDA (Cr) 3418 3248 2982

PAT (Cr) 2052 1967 1769

Net Profit Margin (%)

12.19% 13.05% 12.39%

EPS (RS) 21.3 20.2 18.2

Book Value (Rs.)

91.9 83.2 72

P/BV(X) 12.8 13.5 12.8

RoNW(%) 21.24% 25.5% 26.74%

RoCE(%) 21.84% 22.71% 23.54%

ACCUMULATE | PERIOD: 12 Months

CMP: Rs1293| Target: Rs.1430

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Peerless Securities Master Picks

housing and automobile sectors.It is expected that the housing sector would generate enough opportunities for the growth of the decorative paint business and there is a clear trend for incremental demand of industrial paint in the automobile sector with growing sales of passenger cars, commercial vehicles, along with two- and three-wheelers.

� Indian economy is witnessing a revival of rural demand in the current

fiscal.This growth in rural demand will have a positive impact on the company.With over 40 per cent of sales coming from rural markets, and a strong distribution network in the interior markets, a recovery led by higher rural spending is expected to boost the perfromance of the company.

� Going forward, the sector is showing signs of recovery as the economy is gradually recovering post- GST.The company is witnessing a volume uptick in rural areas while urban areas continue to remain stagnant.The upcoming festive season will also add to the demand. A continuous expansion of the distribution network, an enhanced product portfolio and introduction of new product and service delivery makes Asian Paints a good investment pick.

Technical Outlook

� The stock has been maintaining its uptrend where it made a high close

to around Rs 1500 and thereafter making correction for last few months. However in this correction mode, still the stock has kept its uptrend intact as it is holding its uptrending line. This shows underlining strength in the stock in long term.

� Trend indicator MACD after falling to negative zone has now turned up

and given positive crossover indicating reversal signal. RSI and stochastic have also turned upward in daily chart from oversold zones which indicates that the stock is likely to move up.

� Exponential moving average of 270ema which historically has been

strong support zone is also close to its current market price. � We expect the stock to rebound from oversold ground in medium term

and expect price target of Rs 1430 in timeframe of around 12 months.

Shareholding Pattern

Page 15: Peerless Master Picks- · Market Outlook Indian equities trades at premium valuation compared to EM peers is a key concern, weak domestic and global liquidity could hurt markets in

Peerless Securities Master Picks

Disclaimer

RATING PARAMETER

BUY We expect the stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12months

ACCUMULATE We expect the stock to deliver 6% - 15% returns over the next 12months

REDUCE We expect the stock to deliver 0% - 5% returns over the next 12months

SELL We expect the stock to deliver negative returns over the next 12months

NOTE: Target prices are for a period of 12-month perspective. Returns stated in the rating parameter are for our internal benchmark.

TECHNICAL CALL RATING PARAMETER

BUY A condition that indicates a good time to buy a stock. The exact circumstances of the signal will be determined by the indicator that an

analyst isusing.

SELL A condition that indicates a good time to sell a stock. The exact circumstances of the signal will be determined by the indicator that an

analyst isusing.An instruction to the broker to buy or sell stock when it trades beyond a specified price. They serve to either protect your

profits or limit your losses.

DISCLOSURE / DISCLAIMER

Peerless Securities Ltd (PSL) e s t a b l i s h e d in 1995, is a subsidiary of Peerless General Finance & Investment Co Ltd. PSL is a corporate trading member of Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE), Metropolitan Stock Exchange of India Limited (MSEI) & National Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE). Our businesses include stock broking, services rendered in connection with distribution of primary market issues and financial products like mutual funds and fixed deposits, and depositoryservices.

Peerless Securities Ltd is also a depository participant with National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) and Central Depository Services (India) Limited (CDSL). We are registered as a Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014.

We hereby declare that our activities were neither suspended nor we have defaulted with any stock exchange authority with whom we are registered in last five years. We have not been debarred from doing business by any Stock Exchange/ SEBI or any other authorities; nor has our certificate of registration been cancelled by SEBI at any point oftime.

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We and our affiliates/associates, group companies, officers, directors, and employees, Research Analysts may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the subject company/company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential/material conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions at the time of publication of Research Report or at the time of public appearance. Peerless Securities Ltd (PSL) may have proprietary long/short position in the above mentioned scrip(s) and therefore may be considered as interested. The views provided herein are general in nature and does not consider risk appetite or investment objective of particular investor; readers are requested to take independent professional advice before investing. This should not be construed as invitation or solicitation to do business with PSL. Peerless Securities Ltd does not provide any promise or assurance of favourable view for a particular industry or sector or business group in any manner. The investor is requested to take into consideration all the risk factors including their financial condition, suitability to risk return profile and take professional advice beforeinvesting.

The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in thisreport.

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Research Analyst has served as an officer, director or employee of subject company(ies): No

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Peerless Securities Master Picks

Research Analyst’s financial interest in the subject company(ies): No

Peerless Securities Limited has financial interest in the subject company (ies): Yes

Research Analyst has actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company(ies) at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research Report: No

Peerless Securities Ltd has actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company (ies) at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research Report: No

We or our associates may have received compensation from the subject company (ies) in the past 12 months. We or our associates may have received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company(ies) in the past 12 months. We or our associates may have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company(ies) in the past 12 months. We or our associates may have received compensation or other benefits from the subject company (ies) or third party in connection with the research report. Our associates may have financial interest in the subject company(ies).

Our associates/Group Companies may have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company(ies) at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of ResearchReport.

Subject company (ies) may have been client during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report.

"A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at www.nseindia.com(Choose a company from the list on the browser and select the "three years" icon in the price chart)."

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I/We, author/s (Research Team) and the name/s subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my/our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. I/we (Research Analyst) also certify that no part of my/our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. I/we or my/our relative or PSL may have financial interest in the subject company. Also I/we or my/our relative or PSL or its associates does not have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report. Since associates/group of PSL is engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject company/s mentioned in this report. I/we have not served as officer/director etc in the subject company.

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