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Pennsylvania’s WORKFORCE CHARACTERISTICS TECHNICAL Gap...

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  • Pennsylvanias

    WORKFORCE CHARACTERISTICS TECHNICAL REPORTA report for Pennsylvanias State System of Higher Education

    2016

  • 2DRAFT

    CONTENTS

    5 1. Introduction6 1.1 Goal of the Workforce Characteristics Report7 1.2 Pennsylvanias State System of Higher Education Gap

    Analysis Project

    9 2. Pennsylvanias State System of Higher Education 10 2.1 Universe of Postsecondary Degree Granting Institutions in

    Pennsylvania10 2.2 The State Systems Bachelors Degree Output

    12 3. Identifying the State Systems Sub-regions 12 3.1 Origins of State System Learners15 3.2 Pennsylvania Sub-regions

    17 4. Overview of the Labor Market of Pennsylvania18 4.1 About Employment Projections

    19 5. Industries in Pennsylvania20 5.1 Top Employers in Pennsylvania

    22 6. Occupations in Pennsylvania22 6.1 Skilled Occupations23 6.2 Top Skilled Occupations in Pennsylvania26 6.3 Key Skilled High Demand Occupations Aligning to

    University-level Education30 6.4 StaffingPatternsforKeySkilledHighDemand

    Occupations in Pennsylvania32 6.5 KeySkilledHighDemandOccupationalProfiles

  • 3DRAFT

    39 7. Demographic and Socio-economic Indicators in Pennsylvania

    39 7.1 Pennsylvanias Demographics41 7.2 Pennsylvanias Socio-economic Indicators

    45 8. Next Steps

    46 9. Data Sources Key

    47 Appendix A: State System Sub-regions with PREP Regions and WIA Regions

    48 Appendix B: Pennsylvania State and County Enrollment and Employment

    50 Appendix C: Industry Projections 2014-2024 for Pennsylvania

    60 Appendix D: Occupation Projections 2014-2024 for Pennsylvania

    86 About The State Systems Gap Analysis Project

  • 4DRAFT

    GLOSSARY OF TERMS

    The following descriptions provide a point of reference to understand terminology as well as the types of data and analysis undertaken in this study, reflectinghistoricandcontemporarynarratives.

    Industry Change: A measure of the change in employment within an industry, used to identify whether an industry is growing or declining, as well as the rate of change. Projected changes lay out expectations of growth/decline for specificindustries.

    Job Postings: The number of unique (de-duplicated) online postings for a job in a given occupation.

    Location Quotient: A comparative statistic used to calculate the relative employment concentration of a given industry or occupation against the average employment of the industry in a larger geography (for example, countrywide). Industries with a higher location quotient (usually greater than 1.2) indicate that the region has a comparative advantage or specialization in the production of that good or service or has a high degree of specialization within its workforce. For example, in Silicon Valley, we would expect the concentration of computer programming occupations to be greater than the rest of the U.S., giving rise to the conclusion that Silicon Valley has a comparative advantage in the computer programming workforce.

    New and Replacement Jobs: A demand-side estimate of the number of job openings in an occupation that result from new job growth as well as replacement demand. Replacement demand comprises occupation job leavers based on separations, retirement, and death.

    Occupation Jobs: A measure of employment within an occupation category, used to identify which occupations have been growing or declining, as well as the rate of change. Projected changes lay out expectations of growth/decline forspecificoccupationcategories.

    State System Learner Capture Rate: The percentage of State System enrolledlearnersfromaspecificcountythatareattendingagivenPennsylvaniaState System university. State System universities typically capture a higher proportion of State System enrolled learners from counties in proximity to the institution.

    State System Learner Share: Represents the contribution of learners from a definedgeographicareathatareenrolledinaStateSystemuniversity.

    Sub-regions: AgeographicareawithinPennsylvaniadefinedformorefocusedworkforce and education gap analyses. Sub-regions were determined primarily on Partnerships for Regional Economic Performance (PREP) boundaries. PREP is Pennsylvanias network of business assistance partners designed to help companies start, grow, and prosper. Please refer to Appendix A for mapping of the Sub-regions and PREP boundaries.

    ACRONYMS USED

    ACS: American Community Survey

    BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics

    EMSI: Economic Modeling Specialists International

    CEW: Center on Education and the Workforce (Georgetown University)

    IPEDS: Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System

    LAUS: Local Area Unemployment Statistics

    LEHD: Longitudinal Employment and Housing Dynamics

    NCES: National Center for Education Statistics

    OES: Occupational Employment Statistics

    O*NET: Occupational Network

    PUMS: Public Use Microdata Sample

    QCEW: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

    SAIPE: Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates

    USDOE: U.S. Department of Education

    USDOL: U.S. Department of Labor

  • 5DRAFT

    1. INTRODUCTION

    Pennsylvanias State System of Higher Education (State System) comprises 14 universities, four branch campuses, multiple regional centers and the McKeever Environmental Learning Center.1 The universities are located in rural, suburban, and small-town settings around Pennsylvania. The State Systems two educational hubs (with locations in Harrisburg, the Dixon University Center, and Philadelphia,StateSystem@CenterCity)offeracademicprogramsthroughaconsortium of public and private colleges and universities. Per Act 188 of 1982, the State Systems mission is the provision of instruction for undergraduate and graduate students to and beyond the masters degree in the liberal arts and sciences,andintheappliedfields,includingtheteachingprofession.Indoingso, the State Systems purpose is to provide high quality education at the lowestpossiblecosttostudents.2 Analysis and understanding of the economy and workforce the State System supports, as well as future demands for talent, advances the State Systems mission and philosophya key component of this report.Further,itenableseffectiveandtargetedstrategiesanddecision-making,grounded in data-driven evidence.

    Like all institutions of higher education, the State Systems universities face challengesintheirefforttoidentifyandquantifyprogramneedsforPennsylvaniaresidents and businesses that demand talent. They must account for the changing economic and workforce dynamics within the region they support, such as industry and occupation growth/decline, as well as the changing quality of the areas workforce. Furthermore, as technology progresses, a growing need to address increasingly complex and specialized occupational tasks requires additional customization to education. As a result, education institutions are increasingly called upon to incorporate relevant courses that meet the needs of students and businesses in their service areaa departure from traditional supply-based education towards a more employer demand-driven model.

    Afundamentalchallengeforanyhighereducationsystemistofirstunderstandthe characteristics of the economy and workforce it supports. This study and

    1 One of the State Systems entities, System-wide Functions and Services, is primarily located at the Dixon University Center in Harrisburg and includes: System-wide shared administrative services; System leadership functions of the Chancellor and Board of Governors; some System-wide initiatives and grants managed on behalf of the universities; and the academic, student, and facilities support for the multi-university sites in Harrisburg andPhiladelphia.

    2 Source: The State Systems Economic and Employment Impact on the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania released April 15, 2015.

  • 6DRAFT

    the broader set of deliverables under the State Systems Supply/Demand Gap Analysis Projecthereinafter, Gap Analysis Projectwill assist universities and education planners by providing an infrastructure of resources for internal planning, as well as external engagement. Understanding key economic aspects of the geography helps to better align policy and strategic direction in order to continue supporting the talent needs of Pennsylvania.

    1.1 Goal of the Workforce Characteristics ReportThefirstphaseoftheStateSystemsGapAnalysisProjectwascreatingthecontext for the supply-demand analysis. This was possible with a Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce (CEW)-State System collaboration, which resulted in the production of a report that provides contextual data on Baccalaureate-level education output in order to support andinformeffortsassociatedwiththeStateSystemsGapAnalysisProject.This report is similar to previous national level work from CEW that examines earnings, employment, and occupational outcomes by major for bachelors degree (BD) holders. In this report, customized to the State System and Pennsylvania, CEW delves into the increasing importance of BD holders in the Pennsylvania workforce, the critical role of the State System as part of the statesBDsector,andhowearningsandemploymentvarybyfieldofstudyand occupational area. Georgetown Universitys Center on Education and the Workforceisapremierworld-classindependent,nonprofitresearchandpolicyinstitutethatstudiesthelinkbetweeneducation,careerqualifications,andworkforce demands.

    The Gap Analysis Project produced both a Workforce Characteristics Report andaSupply/DemandGapAnalysisReportforboththestateandfivesub-regions. The Workforce Characteristics Report contains a set of economic, workforce, demographic, and socio-economic information to contextualize the supply/demand gap analysis. The Supply/Demand Gap Analysis Report for Pennsylvania and its s

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