people & data | weigend.com
Veränderungen in einer vernetzen Welt –die METRO Group im neuen Mitmach-Web
Andreas Weigend
2. August 2007 | Düsseldorf
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0 What is Web 2.0?
•Tim O’Reilly (2005):•Web 2.0 is a set of economic, social, and technology trends that collectively form the basis for the next generation of the Internet—a more mature, distinctive medium characterized by user participation, openness, and network effects.
Agen
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Year
: Th
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07.0
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年代理商:消费者广告时代
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Community
Interaction
Participation
Experimentation
Data
Web 2.0
The five levels
Web 1.0
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0 Web1.0 vs Web2.0
Web1.0 与 Web2.0 •Web 1.0 : E-business Web 1.0 :电子商务 about pages, commerce
关于网页和商业Data gathering数据搜集Experimentation试验
about impressions关于印象
•Web 2.0: Me-BusinessWeb 2.0 :我的商务 about people, individuals
关于人和个人Participation, Contribution 参与,贡献Interaction 互动Group, Community, Collaboration 团体,社区,协作 Crowdsourcing more than social
networks 不同于社会网络的扎堆 Future of work 未来的工作
about the impressed 关于留下印象的
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0 Web1.0 vs Web2.0Web1.0 与 Web2.0
Web1.0 Web2.0
Read-only 只读网页 Read + write 可读写网页Consumer消费者
“Prosumer” = Producer + Consumer生产者 + 消费者
User使用者“Youser”你
High barrier of exit (stickiness)高的退出壁垒(粘性) Low barrier of adoption较低的进入壁垒Pretest and validate预先测试和验证 Launch and learn; Push and pray发起和学习;推进和请求
Taxonomy (controlled)基于超链接的探索(体现出作者的控制) “Tagsonomy” (not controlled)标签法(不受控制的)
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0 From Targeting to Discovery从定位到发现
Target 目标定位 Search搜索 Discover发现
Web 1.0 Web 2.0Discovery based on hyperlinks (expressing control of author)基于超链接的探索(体现出作者的控制)
Discovery based on social relations (trust, reputation)基于社会关系的发现(信任,信誉)以及其他
人的元数据。Push: Supply driven.推式广告:供给驱动 Pull: Demand driven拉式发现:需求驱动
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0 Attributes of Web2.0
User focus (E-Business Me-business)User is at the center of Web2.0
TransparencyGoogle Maps: Create API rather than tighten security
TechnologyLightweight
System engineered for feedbackSystem improves as people use it
Network effectsDemand-side economies of scale (not only supply-side economies of scale)
IncentivesPay people (e.g., Yahoo directory index)Get volunteers (e.g., wikipedia)Create self-interest (e.g., BitTorrent; file sharing sites)
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0 Web 1.0 Web 2.0
Background (2007)1 bn PCs, 2 bn mobile phones150M registered eBay users, more transactions per day than NYSE80M blogs total, 20 new entries per second, 2 new blogs created every secondUS online advertising USD 15…20bn (12.5bn in 2005)
Web 1.0 Web 2.0Power Companies need to be
protected from usersUsers need to be protected
from companiesCore Algorithms Data
Hardware SUN etc Commodity PCs
Software Oracle etcLAMP
(Linux, Apache, MySQL, PHP)
System often deteriorates over time
System engineered to improve over time by
leveraging user data
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0 Technology innovation
•Military
•Enterprise
•Consumer
Centralized Top-down
•Consumer
•Enterprise
•Consumer
De-centralized Bottom up
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0 User generated content (UGC)用户自创内容
Paying a few experts to create content Users generated content雇几个专家来创造内容用户自己创造的内容
Implicit data and explicit data 隐含的数据 + 明确的数据Incentives?激励运作 ?Metadata元数据 Example: Music例子:音乐
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0 Social search社会搜索
•Algorithmic search Social search规则搜索社会搜索 Use information of files, email etc. on your computer to determine
relevance使用你的电脑文件里的信息来决定相关性
Example: Illumio例如: Illumio Customers helping customers: People answer questions
消费者互助 : 人们回答问题Exmple: Yahoo Answers例如: Yahoo Answers
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0 Social search – Korea韩国的社会搜索
• KoreanClick 2007.07
•Naver 77% of searches
占 77% 的搜索110M queries per day by 16 M unique users per day out of 48M citizens4800 万人口中,每天有 11000 万条询问来自于 1600 万个用户
Knowledge iN (since 2002)Knowledge iN (始于 2002 年)
44k questions posted per day每天有 44000 条问题110k answers received per day每天会收到 110 , 000 条回复Cumulative 70M累计达到 7000 万条
•Other search engines Daum.net 11%
Daum.net 占 11% Yahoo 4.4%
Yahoo 占 4.4% Google 1.7%
Google 占 1.7%
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0 Knowledge Search, Yahoo 2003 in Korea韩国版的 Yahoo 知识搜索工具
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0 Popular questions in Korea什么问题在韩国最流行?
Why do people close their eyes while they are kissing?为什么人们接吻的时候要闭上眼睛?The most common name in the world?世界上最通用的名字是什么?What’s the truth of Bruce Lee’s death?李小龙的真正死因是什么?Why do people get drunk more when drinking alcohol with a straw? 为什么当人们使用吸管喝酒的时候更容易喝醉?Are there any animals that commit suicide? 什么动物会自杀?
Is that true that most of The Great Commanders are short? 大多数的大人物都很矮,这种说法对吗?Why is the Ocean salty? 为什么海水是咸的?Why do people lift up their hands to show their joy of victory? 为什么人们要举起手来表示他们胜利的喜悦?The Secret of Popularity of Harry Potter Series!! 哈里波特系列如此畅销的秘密。Badly want to lose my weight.... Help. 非常非常想减肥… . 请帮忙!
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0 Amazing user adoption…网络搜索的惊人增长
20
Naver
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Knowledge Search
知识搜索
每周的网页浏览数
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0 …with a Web search halo网络搜索的惊人增长
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Web SearchKnowledge Search
网络搜索知识搜索
每周的网页浏览数
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0 Yahoo Taiwan: Design
Yahoo台湾:设计
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0 Yahoo Taiwan: Launch 2004.12
Yahoo台湾( 2004 年 12月诞生)
23Source: InsightXplore ARO
Total Search Market Share (PVs)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80% Yahoo! 68%
Google 29%
MSN 1.5%
Total Search Market Reach
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Yahoo! 89%
Google 51%
MSN 24%
Y! Knowledge 67%
Total Search Market Reach Total Search Market Share (PVs)
Yahoo! 68%总的搜索市场范围 总的搜索市场份额
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0 Yahoo Answers US: DesignYahoo Answers美国:设计
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0 Yahoo Answers US: Launch 2005.12
Yahoo Answers美国( 2005 年 12月诞生)
25
Answer.yahoo.com Answer.google.comQna.com.com
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0 Typical interaction典型的互动
Example: I need a 7th grade science experiment using food and how quickly it molds例如:我需要七年级的用食物来观察多久发霉的科学实验
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0 US web search美国的网络搜索
US web search market share: Y! flat, Google taking share from MSN and AOL美国的网络搜索市场份额: Yahoo 和 Google 超过了MSN 和 AOL
27 Source: Comscore qSearch reportsQuarterly data reflects end of period data
50.7%
44.0%
30.0%30.0%
11.2%
14.0%
5.5%
9.4%
2.5%2.6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
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60%
Dec-03
Feb-04
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Google Yahoo MSN AOL Ask
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0 Landscape of Web Search网络搜索行业的特点
Levers to gain market share两个赢得市场份额的要素
Superior quality Distribution质量和分销渠道
Mechanisms to lock-in share锁定市场份额的办法
Differentiated content差异化的内容Superior monetization较好的货币化
Country leader has advantage本土领先优势
US (Google), KR (Naver), CN (Baidu)Google 在美国, Naver 在韩国, Baidu 在中国
New players face significant barrier to entry进入壁垒高
Brand and user habits dominate品牌和用户习惯起主导作用:
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0 Social search has the potential to change the game
Social search 很有可能改变游戏规则•Consumer need消费者需求 Platform enabling communities
of people to share 创造世界上最大的平台,使交易各方能够共享来自于经验的和后来学习的知识
ExperiencesLong tail knowledge
•Game changing potential游戏规则改变前景 Critical mass of content and
community of knowledge enthusiasts创造一个必不可少的信息群以及一个由热心人建立的知识社区
Change the search experience改变搜索经历
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0 Why is this game changing?为什么游戏规则会改变?
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Person with a Question?有疑问的人
Ask
ask family/friends Google/Yahoo
Blog FacebookWikipedia. . . . . .
Share
Person with Knowledge有答案的人
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0 Learnings经验之二
The expertise is in the tail专家位于尾部(占少数)
It’s about the people以人为本
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怀孕和做父母的最佳答案
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0 Use in politics: Hilary Clinton asking about healthcare
根据你的个人家庭生活经验,你认为应该怎样提高美国的健康护理水平?
Hilary Clinton
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0 Social Networks (“Contacts”)社交网络(“联络”)
Build your knowledge network by connecting with the people you trust and the topics you care about通过与你信任的人和你关心的问题联系建立你的知识网络
•Benefits 好处 More personal experience
更私人化的经历 More productive experience
更有成果的经历 Faster, easier access…
更快 … to more useful, helpful,
relevant information更简单地找到更有用、更相关的信息
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Community
Interaction
Participation
Experimentation
Data
Web 2.0
The five levels
Web 1.0
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0 Increase of Communication: Five levels增进沟通的 5 个层次
Architectures of Collaboration, Community协作社区体系
Architectures of Interaction交互体系
Architectures of Participation参与贡献体系
Remember, share, discover记住,共享,发现Empower and incentivize people to contribute给予人们贡献的权力并激励他们来贡献
Architectures of Experimentation实验体系
Act: A/B test, active learning, surveys …做法: A/B 测试,主动学习,问卷设计… Data Strategy
数据收集分析Collection, mining: Describe, predict数据挖掘:描述,预测
Web 2.0
Web 1.0
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Amount of data
数据量
1. Data collection and analysis (Amazon.com)1. 数据收集和分析 (Amazon.com)
Level层次
Customer消费者
Orders订单
Session aggregates访问总计
Clicks 点击
Data collectedin 20072007 年搜集的数据
100 MB
10 GB
1 TB
100 TB
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0 Sources of data
Order data订单
E.g., Amazon.com 例如:亚马逊网站A few GB per year每年几百亿
Click data点击数据
E.g., Facebook web logs例如: Facebook 网络链接A few TB per day每天几万亿
Intention data意图数据
E.g., Google search logs例如: google 的搜索网页
Attention data关注数据
E.g., Del.icio.us tags例如 Del.icio.us Interaction data
信息数据Social network data, email headers从社会网络,从电子邮件标题
Location data地点数据
GPS, mobile phones从全球定位系统,从移动电话
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0 Web 1.0 vs Web 2.0Web 1.0 与 Web 2.0
Web 1.0 Web 2.0DoubleClick --> Google AdSense
Ofoto --> FlickrBritannica Online英国在线 --> Wikipedia
personal websites个人网站 --> Blogs博客domain name
speculation投机域名 --> search engine optimization搜索引擎优化pay by impression按显示计费 --> pay for click按点击计费
screen scraping刮屏 --> web services网络服务Publishing发表 --> Participation参与
directories (taxonomy)目录(分类法) --> tagging (tagsonomy)标书签(书签分类法)Stickiness黏性 --> Syndication企业联合组织
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0 3. Participation
3. 参与 1. Data Analysis
数据分析Data mining: Description, prediction数据挖掘:描述,预测
2. Architectures of Experimentation 实验体系
A/B test, active learning, survey design…A/B 测试,主动学习,问卷设计
3. Architectures of Participation 参与体系
Remember, share, discover记住,共享,发现Empower and incentivize people to contribute给予人们贡献的权力并激励他们来贡献Self-expression自我表达
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0 Platform: Yellow Pages平台:黄页
Click to Call!点击 直接通话
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0 Make customer feedback trivially easy获取消费者反馈易如反掌
Capture context automatically自动捕获内容
I went to the bathroom and came back, and the page was still loading!!我去了浴室,又回来,网页却还在下载!!
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0 Money Economy Intention Economy Attention Economy货币经济意图经济注意力经济
Click点击 Only able to click on links given on site.只能点击网站链接
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0 From intention to attention从意图到注意力
Click点击
Search搜索
Only able to click on links given by site.只能点击网站链接
Express intention. Doesn’t depend on result.表达意图。独立于结果
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0 From intention to attention从意图到注意力
Click点击
Search搜索
Tag书签
Only able to click on links given by site.只能点击网站链接
Label item. To remember, share , discover.留下标签。记忆,共享,发现
Express intention. Doesn’t depend on result.表达意图。独立于结果
Amou
nt o
f spe
cificit
y in
crea
ses
针对性愈加明显
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0 Example: del.icio.us例子: del.icio.us
Tags are distilled attention, a pure form of attention.书签是过滤的了注意力,是纯粹的注意力You are what you tag.书签展示真我You are what you are tagged as / who you are tagged by.书签决定你的存在
Discover other users who tagged
the page找到给同一页面贴上书签的其他网友
Follow a user and discover what he is interested in探索该网友的兴趣爱好
Follow a tagand discover a
topic跟随书签发现话题
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你想评论一下吗?
Example: flickr例子: flickr
Quentin Lee, Filmmaker(Drift, Ethan Mao)
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0 The Tectonic Shift in Trust信息的结构性转变
LeadersElders
ExpertsCelebrities
Alternative opinionsFriends and family
The man on the street
The Age of Deference服从时代
The Age of Reference关系时代The man on the street
Friends and familyAlternative opinions
CelebritiesEstablishedauthorities
EldersLeaders
Most trusted source信任度最高
Least trustedSource信任度最低
领导长者专家名人
备选方案 亲友陌生人
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0 What is happening now?新世界
Empower millions of users to contribute上百万网民共同参与 del.icio.us: tag web pages网页书签 flickr.com: tag photos照片书签 43things.com: tag life goals目标书签
One-to-many一对多 Many-to-many多对多
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0 Network of Books based on Customers who Bought Also Bought书籍网络:买这本书的人也会买那本
Letters to Young ConservativeRogue State
Lexus and Olive Tree
Clash of Civilizations
Into the Buzzsaw
War on FreedomWhen I was a Kid...
Why We Fight
What So Great About America
O'Reilly Factor
See No Evil
Hell to Pay
Fighting Back
American Jihad
No-Spin Zone
Invasion
Mission Compromised
Death of the West
Final Days
Breakdown
Shakedown BiasLet Freedom Ring
Slander
Jihad Vs. McWorld
Blowback
Supreme Injustice
Bush Dyslexicon
Downsize This
The Chastening
Elusive Quest for Growth
Stupid White Men
Manufacturing Consent
Understanding Power
Hunting of the President
Betrayal of America
Paradox of American Power
Crashing the Party
What Went Wrong
Globalization and Its Discontents
Forbidden Truth
9-11 Chomsky
Blinded by the Right
George Soros on Globalization
Divine Right of Capital
Perpetual War for Perpetual Peace
Wealth and Democracy
Best Democracy Money Can Buy
Silent Takeover
来源 Source: Valdis Krebs
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0 What blogs are linking to weigend.com?有哪些博客有 weigend.com 的链接?
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0 Chris Anderson’s blog: LongTail.com (Aug 16 2006
entry) Chris Anderson 的博客: LongTail.com(2006 年 8月 16日 )
来源 Source: Chris AndersonWIRED, Oct 2004
长尾效应
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0 Recommendations create demand in the “long tail”
“长尾效应”中的推荐刺激需求
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
0 2000 4000 6000 80000
100,000,000
200,000,000
300,000,000
400,000,000
500,000,000
CopiesShippedCum Ships
50% of Turns from titles 1,150-30,000
39% of Turns from titles 2001-30,000
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0 4. Interaction
4.交互 1. Data Analysis
数据分析Data mining: Description, prediction数据挖掘:描述,预测
2. Architectures of Experimentation 实验体系
A/B test, active learning, survey design…A/B 测试,主动学习,问卷设计
3. Architectures of Participation 参与体系
Remember, share, discover记住,共享,发现Empower and incentivize people to contribute给予人们贡献的权力并激励他们来贡献Self-expression自我表达
4. Architectures of Interaction 交互体系
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0 Platform: eBay feedback (ratings, reputation system)平台: eBay反馈 (评级,信誉系统 )
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0 Who is checking me out?谁浏览了我的网站?
最近浏览了我的联系页的成员
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0 Xing/LinkedIn, openBC
Monetization货币化
Advertising广告Subscriptions订阅Especially Recruiting / Headhunting招聘 /猎头
Innovation革新
Auto-create resumes, and make it easy for people to edit their own resumes自动生成简历以便随时编辑
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0 Dating (Match.com, Fridae.com, …)网上交友 (Match.com, Fridae.com, …)
Monetization货币化
Subscription订阅 But since inventory is key, need to also
have a free version (network effect)因为库存是关键,也需要有免费版本 ( 网络效应 )Advertising广告
Innovation创新
Ranking bi-directional (as one choice)双向排序 ( 作为选择 )Ranking based on implicit behavior基于隐秘行为排序Data mining to understand physical advertising数据挖掘以理解实物广告Modeling modalities vs asking explicitly规律建模与直接询问Reputation, domain specific名誉,特定领域
General problem普通问题
Demand very uneven需求很不均匀 Very attractive or influential people
get more traffic than they want, and have very little to gain from the list, and then unsubscribe非常引人注目或者有影响的人得到过多访问,而并未从列表中获利多少,所以可能取消注册
Need to create a currency (such as ‘virtual red roses) 需要创建流通货币 ( 如虚拟红玫瑰 )
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0 Online Personals and Dating 网上社交和约会
2004 market size: $ 1 billion2004 年市场规模: 10亿美元
Most profitable online content!最有利可图的网上内容!Current doubling time: 1 year目前翻番的时间跨度: 1 年
match.com1M subscribers ($20/month)100 万注册用户(每月会费 20美元)Churn “problem” 会员流动“问题” Average customer lifetime 3-5
months 注册用户的平均持续期为 3-5 个月 1/3 of subscribers that quit re-
subscribe within 12 months注销的用户中有 1/3 在 12 个月内重新注册 friendster.com
3M subscribers (10/2003)300 万注册用户(截至 2003 年 10月)
And more…更多……
Mobile phone dating手机交友
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0 Sept 2003 U.S. snapshot: 27M males age 18-34 on Web美国 2003 年 9月概况: 2700 万 18-34岁的男性网民
•Males in U.S. age 18-34 美国 18-34岁的男性
Total users : 27M因特网用户数 : 2700 万人 (= 100%)
Adult Sites: 19M visitors 成人网站: 1900 万访问者 (= 71%)
Personals Sites: 9M visitors 社交网站: 900 万访问者 (= 32%)
More details 更多内容
27 million 18-34 year-old males who used the Internet in September spent an average of 32 hours per month online (in September, per person).九月份使用过因特网的 2700 万 18-34岁男性,平均每人每月在线时间为 32 小时。This is 17 percent above than the 27 hours the average Internet user spent online during the month.这比全体因特网用户本月平均在线时间 27 小时多出 27% 。Males aged 18-34 are also more engaged Internet users, voraciously consuming 3,370 pages per user in September.18-34岁的男性属于较为狂热的网民,九月份每人贪婪地访问了 3370 个页面。
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0 Platforms平台
Enabling others让他人帮你做
Example: Amazon’s “Mechanical Turk” (www.mturk.com)例子:亚马逊的“机械土耳其人”( www.mturk.com )
Application: CastingWords.com应用: CastingWords.com
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0 Current Situation: Market dominated by large players现状一:大公司占据主导地位
Industry 行业 Company 公司 Ranking 行业排名 Market share 市场份额On-Line
Advertising网络广告Sina 新浪 NO.1 第一 20.4%Sohu 搜狐 NO.2 第二 13.9%
Total Share 合计份额 34.3%
On-Line Games网络游戏
Shenda 盛大 NO.1 第一 18.96%
Netease 网易 NO.2 第二 18.60%
Zhengtu 征途 NO.3 第三 14.85%
Total Share 合计份额 52.41%
IM 即时通讯Tencent 腾讯 NO.1 第一 *94.0%
MSN NO.2 第二 *35.6% Total Share 合计份额 97.7%
On-Line Shopping网络购物
Taobao 淘宝 NO.1 第一 81.9%
eBay 易趣 NO.2 第二 15.4%Total Share 合计份额 97.3%
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0 Current Situation : Big companies are dominating the market现状一:大公司占据主导地位
Sources: 资料来源
Analysis Report on IM software 2006 from iresearch艾瑞即时通讯类软件 2006分析报告Analysis Report on Market Share of On-line Advertisement 2006 from iresearch艾瑞 2006 年中国网络广告市场份额报告Report on China On-line Games of Q4 2006 from Analysys International易观 2006 年第 4季度中国网络游戏市场季度监测Report on On-line Shopping 2006 from China IntelliConsulting Corporation正望中国 2006 年度网上购物调查报告
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0 Mobile dominates in 2007 现状二: 2007 年手机占据主导地位
Internet users: China 2nd worldwide, with highest nr of users under 30 years worldwide中国在互联网用户数量上排名第二, 30岁以下的互联网用户数量则超过世界上其他任何国家Mobile phone users: China highest worldwideMobile games : 1.48 billion RMB in 2006 (up 50% over 2005) 2006 年中国手机游戏市场规模为 14.8亿元人民币,同比增长 50%Mobile search increasing但手机搜索正在逐步兴起,前景广阔。Profit of wireless value-added business decreasing.从互联网公司财报来看,无线增值业务收入为中国互联网公司带来的效益在下降。
• Source : CNNIC statistic report of China internet development (19th )资料来源 : 中国互联网络信息中心 (CNNIC) 19th 中国互联网络发展状况统计报告信息产业部 2007 年 5月统计 数据
Internet users
互联网用户Mobile
phone users 手机用户Ratio:
Mobile to internet users手机用户与互联网用户的比率VoiP users 手机上网用户
PCs安装的 PC数量
137M 495M 3.6 to 1 17M 59.4M
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0 Revenues: Current and expected目前和预计的收入
Dec 2006截止 2006年底 Forecast(2007)预计 (2007 年)Internet互联网
Internet user互联网用户 137M1.37亿
Annual growth: 20 million users 以每年 2000 万速度增
加Broadband user宽带用户 91M
9100万 NAMobile user移动用户 400M
4.04亿 NAAverage expense/month/user单位用户月均支出
Internet user互联网用户 RMB170/month每月 170 元 RMB 195.76 (2007)195.76 元( 2007全年)
Annual Revenue行业整体年均收入 Revenues 2007 1st Half2007 年上半年
Search Engine搜索引擎市场RMB 1.15 billion ( 2007 1st
Half )11.5亿元 ( 2007 年上半年)
RMB 2.712 billion (2007) 27.12亿元 ( 2007全年)
Online Gaming网络游戏RMB 6.5 billion ( 73.5% than
2005) 65亿元(比 2005 年增长
73.5% )30.2% ( CAGR )
Advertising网络广告RMB 4.66 billion 48.9% than
2005) 46.6亿元 (比 2005 年增长
48.9% )RMB 7.632 billion (2007)
76.23亿 ( 2007全年)50% ( CAGR )
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0 Comparison of 70’s&80’s and 90’s半人马和虚拟一代
70‘s& 80's 90'sMain media 主媒介 TV
电视 Computer 电脑 Information 信息量 finite 有限的 infinite 无限的
Information Carrier 信息载体 paper and image 纸制和影像的 electronic 电子的Information dissemination 信息传播 one-way 单向
two-way or multidimensional 双向乃至多维的
Material 物质 finite 有限的 Ample 充裕communication way 通讯手段 telephone
固定电话 IM and mobile phone IM 和手机
friend cycle 朋友圈 family, reletives,
schoolmates 家人、亲戚、同学earth 地球人
relevance 关联方式 Realistic structure 现实结构 interest & hobby 兴趣爱好
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0 Comparison of 70’s&80’s and 90’s半人马和虚拟一代
70‘s& 80's 90'sLearning institutions 学习场所 school 学校 search, BBS 搜索、 BBS
Express views 发表见解 speak on the class 课堂上发言 write Blog 写 Blogcomments scource 意见来源 teacher and parents 老师和父母 all the people online 互联网上的所有人
Production 制作 guo families, play mud 过家家、玩泥巴 design product online 在网上设计产品shopping 购物 virtual shopping 现实购物 online shopping 网上购物payment 支付 cash 现金 Electronic Money 电子货币
entertainment content 娱乐内容 cartoons 动画片 online gaming 网络游戏entertainment way 娱乐方式 watch 观看 role play 角色扮演
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0 Fast growing 90’s generations 虚拟一代( 90’s )快速成长
The Coverage of users between 18-24 years old is the highest, reached to 38.8%, the future coverage of 90’s is expected higher18~ 24岁间网民的普及率最高,达到 38.8% , 90’s 的未来普及率将更高Internet is the main medium for 90’s, and which is different from the generation who grew up with the TV90’s 以互联网为主媒介,不同于在电视为主媒介环境下成长的一代Virtual is the reality, all is the now虚拟就是现实,一切都是现在Collaboration online after the disappearance of time and room时间和空间消失后的网上协作生产Self-centered perceptual consumption 自我为中心的感性消费All media experienced communication 全媒体的体验式沟通
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0 Top sites最大的 20 个网站
Rank 排名 Web Site 网站1 yahoo.com2 msn.com3 google.com4 youtube.com5 live.com6 myspace.com7 baidu.com8 orkut.com9 wikipedia.org10 qq.com11 megaupload.com12 yahoo.co.jp13 microsoft.com14 hi5.com15 facebook.com16 sina.com.cn17 blogger.com18 rapidshare.com19 ebay.com20 friendster.com
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0 Future III: The innovation of Web 2.0 is going on 未来三:中国 Web2.0革新仍在继续
10 of the top 20 global websites are online community sites 在全球访问量最大的前 20 家网站中,社区 /分享类网站基本占到一半
SNS, social networking sitesSNS 社交网络网站
Focused on very few sites in the US…YouTube has 60% market share (160M users in May 2007)YouTube今年五月市场占有率达到 60% (有 16000 万用户MySpace has 80% of pageviews of community sites MySpace访问量占网络社区访问总量的 80% Facebook is fastest growing (35M active users in Jul 2007, doubling every half year)Facebook 发展最快( 2007 年 7月有 3500 万在线用户,每半年翻一番)
… but scattered in China… 但是中国的网络社区市场非常分散
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0 Four dimension 四维度空间
Person人
Global全球脑
Multi group
多群体Single group单群体
Individual孤立
Creation创造
3D三维剧本化
2 D二维One-way单一手段
One-dim
ension单一维度
Multi- way
多样手段M
ulti-dimension
多个维度
Video视频Audio音频Picture图片Text文字
Information信息
Relationship关系
Role-play 扮演
Interactive交互
Dating 交友Business 商务
Space 空间Blog 博客BBS 论坛
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0 Recent developments in social networking space in
China中国目前的社交网络空间发展 Baidu launched social search (similar to Yahoo Answers)百度搜索社区初步成型(类似于 Yahoo Answers )
Baidu innovation: PostBa (2006)百度创新: PostBa ( 2006 年)Yahoo Answers itself inspired by Naver in KoreaYahoo Answers灵感来自于韩国的 Naver
Sina and Sohu add community and social networking aspects to their blogs新浪 / 搜狐的博客正向社区和社交网络形态演化
More than a dozen clones of Second Life in China (July 2007)中国有 12 多家企业在推出或正在推出类似 Second Life 的服务( 2007 年 7月)
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0 The Backdorm Boys
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0 More at Kaiser Kuo’s BackDormBoys Deck