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“Perspectives for the new Dilma Rousseff Government
(2011 – 2014)”
David FleischerInstitute of Political Science
University of Brasília
The Brazil Institute
The Woodrow Wilson CenterWashington, DC
November 17, 2010
The 2010 Campaign
- President Lula with 80% approval rating - He picked Dilma Rousseff “his” candidate - She left PDT to join PT in 1999 - PT accepts this choice
- She had never run for elected office - Considerable experience - MM&E (2003-2005) - Casa Civil (2005-2010) - Daughter of Bulgarian immigrant - Former guerrilla fighter - Arrested by military & tortured
April - Dilma & Serra tied at 37% - Ciro Gomes (PSB) leaves race - Marina Silva (PV) at 12%
June - PT-PMDB coalition + 8 parties - Michel Temer as Vice - PSDB-DEM coalition + 4 parties - Índio da Costa as Vice
Early September - Dilma peaked at 57% of valid vote - Casa Civil scandal exploded - Dilma declined 52% valid vote - Dilma voters Marina Silva
Dilma Rousseff Track of % ofPolling Inst. Voter Preference Valid Vote
Datafolha 51% 47% 51.6%
Ibope 51% 50% 54.3%
Vox Populi 52% 49% 55.7%
Sensus 50.5% 47.5% 54.7%
First Round Results % Valid
Candidates Party Nº Votes Vote
D. Rousseff PT 47,651,434 46.91
J. Serra PSDB 33,132,283 32.61
M. Silva PV 19,636,359 19.33
Second Round Campaign (October)
- “Tit-for-Tat” accusations
- Dilma portrayed as pro-abortion - Serra’s wife allegedly had abortion in US
- Dilma “tolerates” corruption - Corruption in Serra government in SP
Dilma maintains “comfortable” lead
Second Round Results % Valid
Candidates Party Nº Votes Vote
Dilma PT 55,752,092 56.05
Serra PSDB 43,710,422 43.95
DIlma Rousseff:Poll Inst. Track Valid Vote
Datafolha 53.9% 55.6%
Ibope 53% 57%
Sensus 52.3% 58.6%
Vox Populi 54% 57%
Dilma – Serra Regional Division
- Serra won 11 states (54% GDP) - South, Central-West + SP
- Dilma won 16 states - Northeast, North, MG, RJ, DF
- Some “recriminations” against NE
- Complaints about loss in MG
Breakdown of Congress (2011)
In 2011, Dilma Rousseff will have stronger majorities in Congress - Especially in the Senate
Pres. Lula campaigned to defeat SIX opposition Senators - Tasso Jereissati (PSDB-CE) - Arthur Virgílio (PSDB-AM) - Marco Maciel (DEM-PE) - Mão Santa (PSC-PI) - Heráclito Fortes (DEM-PI) - Efraim Moraes (DEM-PB)
Plus Cesar Maia (DEM-RJ)
Sept. Feb.Senate 2010 2011
DilmaPT-PMDB-PSB-PR-PP-PDT- 42 54PCdoB-PRB-PSC (51.9%) (67.7%)
OppositionPSDB-DEM-PPS- 37 27PTB-PMN-PSoL (45.7%) (33.3%)
Other 2 0 (2.5%)
TOTAL 81 81
Sept. Feb.Chamber 2010 2011
DilmaPT-PMDB-PSB-PR-PP-PDT-PCdoB- 338 353PRB-PSC-PTC (65.9%) (68.8%)
OppositionPSDB-DEM-PPS-PTB-PMN-PSoL- 158 139PRTB (30.8%) (27.1%)
OtherPV-PHS-PAN- 17 19PSL-PRP (3.3%) (3.7%)
TOTAL 513 513
Turnover only 44.25%
A new bloc is formed in Congress:
PTB-PP-PR 103 deputies in 2011
In 2003 & 2004 this same group blocked the political reform
This bloc will negotiate committee assignments & chairs in the Chamber
Allocate Senate & Chamber Presidents - Rotation, PT + PMDB??
The Lula Dilma Transition
- Organizing the “new” Gov’t.
- Dilma’s coordination team - Antônio Palocci - José Eduardo Cardozo - José Eduardo Dutra (Pres. PT) - Michel Temer (Pres. PMDB)
- Initial Coordination “tasks” 1) Articulate with party coalition 2) Filter names for cabinet 3) Articulate 2011 budget – Congress - avoid cost over runs and increased spending
Market pressures economic team Perhaps named by November 20
- Finance Minister - Sec. for Economic Policy - Central Bank President - Planning Minister
Dilma: Cabinet one-third women??? 11 out of 34 cabinet ministers??
- Lula has only three women in 2010
Like “Blair’s Babes” in 1997
José Luís Zapatero (2004) – 50% women
Michelle Bachelet (2006) – 10 out of 20
Dilma’s possible picks (women): - Maria das Graças Foster - Miriam Belchior - Tereza Campello - Tânia Bacelar - Clara Levin Ant - Márcia Lopes - Isabela Teixeira - Ideli Salvatti (PT-SC) - Gleisi Hoffmann (PT-PR) - Marta Suplicy (PT-SP) - Vanessa Grazziotin (PCdoB-AM) - Lídice da Mata (PSB-BA) - Maria do Rosário (PT-RS) - Iriny Lopes (PT-RS) - Manuela D’Avila (PCdoB-RS)
Dilma’s other possible picks (men): - Antônio Palocci - José Eduardo Cardozo - Paulo Bernardo - Fernando Pimentel - Guido Mantega - Aloísio Mercadante - Nelson Barbosa - Giles Azevedo - Gilberto Carvalho - Alexandre Padilha - Luciano Coutinho (PMDB) - Nelson Jobim (PMDB) - Edison Lobão (PMDB) - Henrique Meirelles (PMDB) - Alexandre Tombini - Ciro Gomes (PSB) - Márcio Fortes (PP) - Blairo Maggi (PR) - Abílio Diniz
Brazil International Ratings in Nov. 2010
1) IMF 7th Economy, GDP $2.2 trillion
2) World Bank – “Doing Business” - 2006, Brazil 119th out of 155 nations - 2010, Brazil 124th out of 183 nations - 2011, Brazil 127th out of 183 nations
3) United Nations – Human Development Index - 74th out of 169 nations (0.699) - could have been worse (0.599) - if inequalities considered - income, education & health - “Women’s Watch” – 80th in gender equality
4) Forbes magazine - “Dilma 16th most powerful person on earth” - after Angela Merkel & Sonia Gandhi
Dilma Rousseff’s Challenges for 2011
1) Infrastructure bottlenecks & logistics - airports, air travel, air cargo currently at the limit in Brazil - private sector via concessions remove Air Force “control” - ocean ports – backlogs & costs - expand capacity via concessions - highways – added costs (“custo Brasil”) - railroads – further expansion - minerals + grain - Caterpillar, locomotive factory - electricity supply - must keep ahead of demand
2) Reform Agenda – 2011 an odd year
- tax/fiscal reform - new federalism pact?? - labor legislation - reduce social overhead costs - currently 103% - social security reform - private sector INSS - review of public sector - political reform - attempted in 2003, 2007 & 2009 - close PR list - prohibit PR coalitions - threshold clause (1%, 2% or 3%??) - Senator alternates - via sub-lists? - campaign finance?
3) Education - upgrade, enhance & expand - universities & technical schools - quality performance primary/secondary - not just quantity bad rating on HDI
4) Relations with States - resurrect CPMF as CSS - restructure state debts - established in 1997/1998 - IGP-DI + 6%
SP tries to lead (destabilize Dilma)
5) Control of federal expenditures - extreme pressures on transition some R$180 billion extra?
6) Eradicate misery & poverty - bolsa família - upward social mobility - GDP growth new jobs - link school and job training
7) Basic sanitation quality of life - water & sewerage
8) Regulate pre-salt petroleum exploration - which management model? - stronger State control? channel profits to development - avoid the “curse of petroleum”
9) Reaction to global “FX warfare” G-20 in Seoul - undervalued US dollars flood Brazil
- Brazil might run trade deficit in 2011 monetary/fiscal policies - reduce debt/GDP ratio, 42% 30% - reduce Selic rate (7% or 8%)?? - new Central Bank president? - reduce federal expenditures - heavier tax on US dollar inflow Allow Real to “float up” to R$1,80 FX rate
10) Industrial policy for key sectors - promote technological innovation
- sustained development