Perspectives on Long Range Perspectives on Long Range Transport – Transport – Jeff Lundgren and Ian McKendry Jeff Lundgren and Ian McKendry

Geog/ATSC UBCGeog/ATSC UBC

Kelowna Forest Fires 2003

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PM10PM2.524 HR Average PM2.5

Emerging interest on West Coast and elsewhere inEmerging interest on West Coast and elsewhere in

Chemical WeatherChemical Weather:: ““ local, regional and global distributions of important trace gases and local, regional and global distributions of important trace gases and

aerosols and their variabilities on time scales of minutes to hours to aerosols and their variabilities on time scales of minutes to hours to days, particularly in light of their various impacts, such as on human days, particularly in light of their various impacts, such as on human health, ecosystems, and the meteorological weather and climate”. health, ecosystems, and the meteorological weather and climate”.

- Lawrence et al. 2005- Lawrence et al. 2005

http://www.iaff1286.com/kelowna.html

OutlineOutline

History – a West Coast PerspectiveHistory – a West Coast Perspective Trans-Pacific Transport – what we Trans-Pacific Transport – what we

knowknow Defining “Background” and Defining “Background” and

“chemical weather” - importance to “chemical weather” - importance to Canada Wide StandardsCanada Wide Standards

Outstanding scientific issuesOutstanding scientific issues

Chernobyl 1986 alerted us to potential impacts of Long Range Transport

Evidence from West of LRT –Siberian Fires etc.

McKendry and Lundgren 2000

Climatology of Layer Structures

1998 Asian Dust Event was the catalyst for research

a. GOES 10 a. GOES 10 geostationary geostationary satellite image satellite image of the dust taken of the dust taken on the evening on the evening of April 27.of April 27.

The dust cloud, The dust cloud, marked by the marked by the brighter brighter reflectance reflectance covers the entire covers the entire northwestern US northwestern US and adjacent and adjacent portions of portions of Canada.Canada.

A dust stream is A dust stream is also seen also seen crossing the crossing the Rocky Mountains Rocky Mountains toward the east. toward the east.

b. Contour map of the PM10 b. Contour map of the PM10 concentration on April 29, 1998. Note concentration on April 29, 1998. Note the coincidence of high PM10 and the coincidence of high PM10 and satellite reflectance over Washington satellite reflectance over Washington

c. Regional average daily c. Regional average daily PM10 concentration over PM10 concentration over the West Coast. The sharp the West Coast. The sharp peak on April 27-30 is due peak on April 27-30 is due to the Asian dust.to the Asian dust.

On Heels of 1998 Event came April On Heels of 1998 Event came April 12-16 2001: “The Perfect Asian 12-16 2001: “The Perfect Asian

Dust Storm”Dust Storm”

http://www.lakepowell.net/asiandust.htm

Jaffe et. al. ongoing Aircraft and monitoring Jaffe et. al. ongoing Aircraft and monitoring in Western North America highlights in Western North America highlights

diversity and frequency of eventsdiversity and frequency of events

Jaffe et al. 2003

Dust Veils streaming off North Africa 1 March 2005 (this image from the Moderate Dust Veils streaming off North Africa 1 March 2005 (this image from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)(MODIS) on NASA’s on NASA’s TerraTerra satellite). satellite). Available online at the NASA Earth Observatory: Available online at the NASA Earth Observatory:

tp://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/tp://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/

2005: A New Pathway identified for Dust – Sahara Eastward to North America

GEOS-CHEMModel

Note lack of dustactivity near surfaceOver Eurasia andNo precipitationEn route

~19,000km

EC Lidar at UBC March 2005

AB

NRL AerosolForecast for Saturna Is.

Saharan Dust Layer

Cloud

Lidar Backscatter

AB

NRL AerosolForecast for Saturna Is.

Lidar Backscatter

Subsidence

Spring Zonal fluxes mgm-2s-1 at 140oW

Gong et al. 2006

From Sunling Gong’s work we know a lot now about the Inter-annual variability and pathways of Asian LRT

A novel approach to investigating transport – A novel approach to investigating transport – tremendous potentialtremendous potential

Mean Asian transit time8 days in mid-tropAnd 14 days at surface

Scales and Processes affecting Scales and Processes affecting intercontinental transportintercontinental transport

SubsidenceSynoptic systemsLocal windsBoundary layer ProcessesChemistry

SOURCE SINK

TRANSPORTConvectionSynoptic systemsBoundary LayerWarm Conveyer Belts

Planetary wavesDeposition ProcessesChemistrySynoptic “handover”

Minutes - days~10-15 days

Minutes-days

Objectives of Ongoing Objectives of Ongoing ResearchResearch

Identify global pathwaysIdentify global pathways Climatology of transport pathwaysClimatology of transport pathways Estimate burdenEstimate burden Identify trendsIdentify trends Estimate contribution to local air Estimate contribution to local air

qualityquality

background concentration (level) background concentration (level) is formally defined as: is formally defined as: ““ The concentration of a given species in a pristine air mass The concentration of a given species in a pristine air mass

in which anthropogenic impurities of a relatively short in which anthropogenic impurities of a relatively short lifetime are not present. The background concentrations of lifetime are not present. The background concentrations of relatively long-lived molecules, methane, carbon dioxide, relatively long-lived molecules, methane, carbon dioxide, halocarbons (CF3Cl, CF2Cl2, etc.) and some other species halocarbons (CF3Cl, CF2Cl2, etc.) and some other species continue to rise due to anthropogenic input, so the continue to rise due to anthropogenic input, so the composition of background air is undergoing continual composition of background air is undergoing continual change. change. Background concentration of a given species is Background concentration of a given species is sometimes considered to be the concentration of that sometimes considered to be the concentration of that impurity in a given air mass when the contribution from impurity in a given air mass when the contribution from anthropogenic sources under study is absentanthropogenic sources under study is absent. Synonymous . Synonymous with baseline concentration.”with baseline concentration.”

1990, 1990, 6262, 2175, 2175IUPAC Compendium of Chemical Terminology 2nd Edition IUPAC Compendium of Chemical Terminology 2nd Edition

(1997)(1997)

Estimating contribution to local air quality:Estimating contribution to local air quality:With the move to Canada Wide Standards for PMWith the move to Canada Wide Standards for PM2.52.5 and O and O33

there is a need to define background concentrations that not there is a need to define background concentrations that not amenable to control strategies and may violate standardsamenable to control strategies and may violate standards

http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/aboutus/milestones/asian_emissions.html

GFDL Modelling

Keating et al 2005

Keating et al. 2005

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NOTE: Proposed CWS PM2.5: 30 mgm-3, 24-hour (midnight to midnight) averaging time - 98th percentile ambient measurement annually, averaged over three consecutive years.

(Combined Marine Asian Air)

Impact of Episodic events (“Chemical Weather”) on PM2.5 Background

Maximum ambient PM2.5

Concentration

Duration of Event

Background contribution to ambient

Spatial Extent Frequency

Kelowna August 2003 Forest Fires

284 µgm-3 7 days 100% Regional interannual

April 1998 Asian Dust Event1

44µgm-3 days 50%2 Continental rare (decadal?)

Chilliwack local dust event (7 Jan 2005)

2-5µgm-3 (PM10

50µgm-3)

days 0-50% Local annual

1 McKendry et al, 2001; Husar et al. 20012 EPA (2002) suggest an increase of 8.7± 2.3 µgm-3 during dust events, with mean maximum dust contributions of 19.7± 8.4 µgm-3

Scientific IssuesScientific Issues Multiple phenomena occurring across a Multiple phenomena occurring across a

range of spatial and temporal scalesrange of spatial and temporal scales Events singular (spring maximum)Events singular (spring maximum) Observations are difficult and interpretation Observations are difficult and interpretation

involves multiple lines of evidenceinvolves multiple lines of evidence Chemistry likely complexChemistry likely complex Urgent need for continuous lidar Urgent need for continuous lidar

measurements on west Coast to complement measurements on west Coast to complement Whistler High Altitude measurementsWhistler High Altitude measurements

PublicationsPublications McKendryMcKendry, I. G. and J. Lundgren, 2000. "Tropospheric layering of ozone in regions of urbanised complex and/or , I. G. and J. Lundgren, 2000. "Tropospheric layering of ozone in regions of urbanised complex and/or

coastal terrain - a review," coastal terrain - a review," Progress in Physical GeographyProgress in Physical Geography, 24, p. 359-384., 24, p. 359-384. McKendryMcKendry, I. G., J. P. Hacker, R. Stull, S. Sakiyama, D. Mignacca and K. Reid, 2001. "Long range transport of , I. G., J. P. Hacker, R. Stull, S. Sakiyama, D. Mignacca and K. Reid, 2001. "Long range transport of

Asian dust to the Lower Fraser Valley, British Columbia, Canada," Asian dust to the Lower Fraser Valley, British Columbia, Canada," Journal of Geophysical ResearchJournal of Geophysical Research, 106(D16), p. , 106(D16), p. 18361-18370.18361-18370.

Husar, R. B., D. M. Tratt, B. A. Schichtel, S. R. Falke, F. Li, D. Jaffe, S. Gassó, T. Gill, N. S. Laulainen, F. Lu, M. Husar, R. B., D. M. Tratt, B. A. Schichtel, S. R. Falke, F. Li, D. Jaffe, S. Gassó, T. Gill, N. S. Laulainen, F. Lu, M. C. Reheis, Y. Chun, D. Westphal, B. N. Holben, C. Gueymard, I. C. Reheis, Y. Chun, D. Westphal, B. N. Holben, C. Gueymard, I. McKendryMcKendry, N. Kuring, G. C. Feldman, C. , N. Kuring, G. C. Feldman, C. McClain, R. J. Frouin, J. Merrill, D. DuBois, F. Vignola, T. Murayama, S. Nickovic, W. E. Wilson, K. Sassen, N. McClain, R. J. Frouin, J. Merrill, D. DuBois, F. Vignola, T. Murayama, S. Nickovic, W. E. Wilson, K. Sassen, N. Sugimoto and W. C. Malm, 2001. "The Asian dust events of April 1998," Sugimoto and W. C. Malm, 2001. "The Asian dust events of April 1998," Journal of Geophysical ResearchJournal of Geophysical Research, , 106(D16), p. 18371-18380.106(D16), p. 18371-18380.

Hacker, J. P., I. G. Hacker, J. P., I. G. McKendry McKendry and R. B. Stull, 2001. "Modeled downward transport of Asian dust over Western and R. B. Stull, 2001. "Modeled downward transport of Asian dust over Western North America during April 1998," North America during April 1998," Journal of Applied MeteorologyJournal of Applied Meteorology, 40, p. 1617-1628., 40, p. 1617-1628.

D. Jaffe, I. G. D. Jaffe, I. G. McKendry McKendry and H. Price. 2003 "Six Case Studies of Trans-Pacific Transport of Air Pollutants," and H. Price. 2003 "Six Case Studies of Trans-Pacific Transport of Air Pollutants," Atmospheric EnvironmentAtmospheric Environment, 37, 391-404, 37, 391-404

S. L. Gong, X. Y. Zhang, T. L. Zhao, I. G. S. L. Gong, X. Y. Zhang, T. L. Zhao, I. G. McKendryMcKendry and D. Jaffe. 2003 “Characterization of soil dust aerosol in and D. Jaffe. 2003 “Characterization of soil dust aerosol in China and its transport/distribution China and its transport/distribution Journal Geophysical ResearchJournal Geophysical Research. 108(D9) . 108(D9)

T.L. Zhao, S.L. Gong, X.Y. Zhang, I.G. T.L. Zhao, S.L. Gong, X.Y. Zhang, I.G. McKendryMcKendry 2003, “Modelled size-segregated budgets of soil dust aerosol 2003, “Modelled size-segregated budgets of soil dust aerosol during ACE-Asia, 2001: Implications for Trans-Pacific transport” - during ACE-Asia, 2001: Implications for Trans-Pacific transport” - Journal of Geophysical Research, 108, D23, Journal of Geophysical Research, 108, D23, 8665.8665.

H. Price, D. Jaffe, P. Doskey, I. H. Price, D. Jaffe, P. Doskey, I. McKendryMcKendry and T. Anderson. 2003: “Vertical Profiles of O3, aerosols, CO and and T. Anderson. 2003: “Vertical Profiles of O3, aerosols, CO and NMHCs in the Northeast Pacific during the ACE-ASIA and TRACE-P experiments” NMHCs in the Northeast Pacific during the ACE-ASIA and TRACE-P experiments” J. Geophys. Res.J. Geophys. Res.Vol. 108, No. Vol. 108, No. D20, 8799D20, 8799

M. Holzer, M. Holzer, I. G. McKendry I. G. McKendry and D. Jaffe, 2003 "Springtime trans-Pacific atmospheric transport from East Asia: A and D. Jaffe, 2003 "Springtime trans-Pacific atmospheric transport from East Asia: A transit-time-PDF approach" transit-time-PDF approach" Journal of Geophysical Research, 108 D22, 4708Journal of Geophysical Research, 108 D22, 4708 ..

Zhao, T.L., S. L. Gong, X. Y. Zhang, I. G. Zhao, T.L., S. L. Gong, X. Y. Zhang, I. G. McKendryMcKendry, and Z. J. Zhou 2006 “A Simulated Climatology of Asian , and Z. J. Zhou 2006 “A Simulated Climatology of Asian Dust Aerosol and its Trans-Pacific Transport 1. Mean climate and validation” Dust Aerosol and its Trans-Pacific Transport 1. Mean climate and validation” J. Climate 19(1): 88-103J. Climate 19(1): 88-103

Gong, S.L., X.Y. Zhang , T.L. Zhao, X. Zhang, I.G. Gong, S.L., X.Y. Zhang , T.L. Zhao, X. Zhang, I.G. McKendryMcKendry and C.S. Zhao. 2006: “A Simulated Climatology and C.S. Zhao. 2006: “A Simulated Climatology of Asian Dust Aerosol and its Trans-Pacific Transport 2. Interannual Variability and Climate Connections”, of Asian Dust Aerosol and its Trans-Pacific Transport 2. Interannual Variability and Climate Connections”, J. J. Climate 19(1): 104-122Climate 19(1): 104-122

Bennett C.M., I.G. Bennett C.M., I.G. McKendryMcKendry, S. Kelly, K. Denike and T. Koch “Impact of the 1998 Gobi Dust Event on Hospital , S. Kelly, K. Denike and T. Koch “Impact of the 1998 Gobi Dust Event on Hospital Admissions in the Lower Fraser Valley, British Columbia”, Science of the Total Environ. (in Press)Admissions in the Lower Fraser Valley, British Columbia”, Science of the Total Environ. (in Press)

McKendryMcKendry, Strawbridge, O’Neill, McDonald, Liu, P. Jaegle, Jaffe, Fairlie, A Case of Trans-Pacific Transport of , Strawbridge, O’Neill, McDonald, Liu, P. Jaegle, Jaffe, Fairlie, A Case of Trans-Pacific Transport of Saharan Dust to Western North America, JGRSaharan Dust to Western North America, JGR