Perspectives on Plug-ins and Emerging Global Trends

Fleet Challenge Ontario23 Feb 2010

Mike MillikinEditor, Green Car Congress

mmillikin@bioagemedia.com

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Krieger electric landaulet (France) Washington, D.C., circa 1906. Senator George P. Wetmore, Rhode Island.

Harris & Ewing Collection glass negative via Shorpy.com

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Lansden Electric, New York, NY.

Private collector via Shorpy.com

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Woodward Avenue (Campus Martius), Detroit MI, 1917Edison Electric

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Electric Motor Boosts Prospects for Combustion Engined Vehicles

1912 Cadillac – world’s first self-starting ICE automobile

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They’re Back…a PHEV Sampler…

Chevy Volt, 2010

Toyota Prius PHV

Ford Escape Plug-in Hybrid Fisker Karma, 2010

Hyundai Blue-Will Concept Cadillac XTS Platinum Plug-in Concept Mitsubishi PX-MiEV Concept Daimler BlueZERO E-CELL PLUS

Eaton PHEV Utility TruckBright Commercial Van

…not even considering the full battery electric vehicles in production (city car and commercial) or targeted for production. (Think, i-MiEV, Leaf, Tesla, Smith EV, Modec, Ford Electric Transit…)

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Market Drivers

• Resource limits and growing global automotive fleet– I.e., Supply vs. demand

• Urbanization– Potential for lower-range EVs

• Regulations– Greenhouse gas and criteria pollutants

• But the key demand pull in the market currently is the price of fuel– After 10 years, hybrids in the US are about 2.4% of

new vehicle sales

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Growth in Global Vehicle Parc

OPEC World Oil Outlook 2008

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IEA WEO 2008 Global Transport Energy Demand Forecast

(Reference Scenario)

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IEA WEO 2008 World Oil Production by Source (Reference Scenario)

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Roadmap

NREL

Dr. Byungsoon Min, Hyundai

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Fuels and Powertrains

Source: Dr. Andreas Lippert, GM

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Electrification TechnologiesEngine

stop-startEngine assist(downsizing)

RegenBraking

ElectricLaunch

All-electricDrive

Liquid Fuel Economy

Micro-hybrid (14V)Yes

(>0.3 sec)Minimal(<3 kW)

Minimal(<3 kW)

No No +3-6%

Mild hybrid (42V) YesModest(< 9 kW)

Modest(< 9 kW)

No No+8-12%

Medium hybrid (100+V)

Yes Yes YesNo No

+40%

Full hybrid (300V) Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes +55%

Plug-in Hybrid(Blended Full)

Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes +80%

Battery ElectricVehicle

N/A N/A Yes Yes Yes N/A

Fuel economy estimates from Nancy Gioia, Ford Motor

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Common Electrification ComponentsHEV PHEV BEV

Battery Yes (power) Yes (Energy) Yes (Energy)

DC/DC Converter Yes Yes Yes

Inverter(s) Yes Yes Yes

Motor(s) Yes Yes Yes

Regen brakes Yes Yes Yes

Electric AC/ancillaries Yes Yes Yes

Transmission Yes Yes No

EV Gearbox No No Yes

Charger No Yes Yes

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Fundamental Plug-in Design Decisions

• Architecture: parallel or series (i.e., range extended EV)

• Operating strategy: Blended vs. All-Electric

– Charge sustaining vs. charge depleting

• Electric Range

• Outcome determines the sizing and characteristics of battery pack, power electronics and electric machine

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Is the Industry Overdesigning Given Customer Perceptions / Requirements?

Ken Kurani et al., UC Davis Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Research Center

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10

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000

GasolineDiesel

H2 700 bar

Li-Ion

Lead-AcidNiMH

Gra

vim

etri

c En

erg

y D

en

sity

(W

h/k

g)

Volumetric Energy Density (Wh/L)

• Battery improvement expected, but still 100x lower density than liquid fuels

• Hydrogen has significantly higher energy density than current batteries

Energy Storage Densities(Including Fuel Tank/Battery)

Ethanol

Source: GM

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Battery chemistries and applications

Source: Ricardo plc

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It’s (Mostly) About the Battery

Source: Tien Duong, US DOE

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Operational Strategy Affects Battery Life, and Hence Cost

Brooker et al., 2010, NREL/CP-540-47454

Implications for PHEV design

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“ To really have a big impact, especially in getting widespread penetration in countries with large emerging economies such as India, these [battery] costs have to come down significantly, maybe by as much as a factor of two or more. And if we want to ever get to a pure electric vehicle, we will need a lot more energy (55 kWh instead of 16 kWh) and these costs have to come way down for these cars to be widely affordable.

Fundamental research into battery energy, safety, and lifetimes are the only way we are going to achieve this.”

Dr. Venkat SrinivasanStaff ScientistLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory,

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Greater Electrification Creates New Technical Challenges Beyond Those for HEVs

• Higher Peak Torque and Power Densities

• Higher Efficiency in the regions of use

• Lower NHV

• Improved Durability

• Lower Specific Cost

• Extraordinary Continuous Power Density

In motors, for example:

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Motor Duty Requirements Increase with Electrification

Source: GM, SAE 2010 Hybrid Vehicle Technologies Symposium

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Motor Thermal Analysis

Source: GM, SAE 2010 Hybrid Vehicle Technologies Symposium

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Multiple Electrification Cost Drivers

• Application/Usage (Drive Cycles)– Peak to Average Power Ratio– Thermal Cycling– Power Cycling– Desired Range

• Technology– Silicon Technology (IGBT, Diodes) – Industry Standards vs. Custom?– Power Module Packaging and Cooling Technology– Capacitor Technology– Sensing Technology– Battery Cell Technology

• Commonality and Reuse– Power Density – Package Size– Fixed vs. Tunable– Connection Systems

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One View of Cost/km

Data: Economic Viability of Electric Vehicles , AECOM 2009

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Another View of Cost PHEV and EV Cost

Brooker et al., 2010, NREL/CP-540-47454

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SAE J1772 xEV Charging Standard

• Four different charging levels possible

– Level 1 AC: house current, 12-16 amps

– Level 2 AC: 208-240V, less than 80 amps/11.5kW

– Level 3 AC: <600V, maximum of 96kW

– Level 3 DC: fast charge, <600V, maximum of 240kW

• Level 3 DC standard not yet settled

• Is fast charging a solution for consumer range-anxiety?

• Different US and Euro approaches are based on the different electric infrastructures in place (single phase in the US and Japan, 3-phase in Europe).

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Two Connector StandardsUS/Japan

IEC 62-196-2 Type IEurope

IEC 62-196-2 Type II

Maximum voltage 240V 480V

Maximum current 32A (80A in US) 63A (70A single phase)

Phases 1 1 to 3

Maximum power 7.2 kW (19.2 kW US) 49.9 kW

InterlockMechanical latch

on connectorElectromechanical latch

on socket

Control Pilot PWM signal PWM signal

ProximityResistor in connector (also used

to detect latch status)Resistor (also used to detect

latch status)

Digital communication

PLC PLC

Intended use Vehicle Vehicle/infrastructure

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The Search for Harmonization

• Two different charging connectors have been developed and will be standardized by IEC– SAE J1772 (aligned with Japanese) is optimized for single phase

charging with cables permanently attached to the spot– The European proposal also includes provisions for three-phase

charging and the use of loose mode 3 cables

• Euro automakers urging harmonization. In NA:– Use three-phase compatible Mode 3 sockets on public charge

spots– Design all new single phase chargers to be compatible with

277V phase to neutral rather than 240V– Use three phase cables to connect new charge spots even if only

one phase is used for the near future

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Automakers Looking For:

• Customers. Selection of electrification technology is currently a range-driven, cost-based discussion.

• Standardization of components across high-volume platforms.– Why you likely won't see a hybrid minivan in the US

anytime soon.– New SAE Battery Standards Committee

• Standardization of support infrastructure (EVSE)• Drive up volumes with modularization and

standardization• Diversification of the supply base• Harmonization of regulations

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Sales Projections by Type for 2015

All data is from CSM Worldwide global comprehensive vehicle production and sales forecasts, compiled by Ford.

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“We can push electrification of these vehicles, but unless we think about where that fuel, where that power and energy comes from, what source that is, we’re really not going to solve the problems that we have going forwards.

It might be sustainable for a generation or two but it is not going to get us very much further into the future, so we really need to think very very hard about the complete well-to-wheel lifecycle formula.

This is something that we in Mercedes-Benz are really trying to focus on as being the key long term driver moving us forward…The only solution we have actually long term is to go to renewable energy.”

Dr. Neil ArmstrongChief Engineer / Director, Hybrid Systems and ComponentsDaimler AG

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Forecasting Success

• It is extremely difficult to forecast the likely success of competing advanced powertrains (Steven Plotkin, Argonne National Laboratory) when we don’t know:– The future price of fuel…and what consumers think it will be

– Future attitudes about climate change, energy security and the economy…and what people are willing to do about them

– Future regulations and incentives

– Future technology progress or breakthroughs

– Consumer response

• Electrification technologies (e.g., PHEVs, EVs, Fuel Cells) will be competing against significantly improved “conventional” drivetrains– Global Fuel Economy Initiative (UNEP, IEA, ITF, FIA Foundation) targeting 30% improvement in

new car fuel efficiency by 2020 and 50% by 2030 mainly through incremental change to conventional internal combustion engines and drive systems, along with weight reduction and better aerodynamics.

• No single “Silver Bullet”

• Regional variations and combinations

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What Does This Mean for Fleets?

• Electrification is not cheap or fast

• Implementation must be goal-driven and mission-focused

• Select the technology based on operational requirements; find the sweet spot

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“If it doesn’t support the mission, it will never catch on.”

John FormisanoVP of Global Vehicles

FedEx Express

– E.g. Fedex: EVs for <5K miles/yr, Hybrids for 15-25K miles/yr

• Trials and partnerships

• The importance of metrics

• The importance of training

– From “It won’t start” to eco-driving

• The importance of infrastructure on scale-up

• The importance of funding

What will it take to meet CO2 targets?

• Increase vehicle efficiency• Reduce VKT

– Modal shifts, development changes (e.g., anti-sprawl)

• Reduce carbon intensity of remaining VKT—i.e., lower carbon fuels and/or change driver behavior

• One example for US to hit 450 ppm target by 2050 (Grimes-Casey et al., 2009, ES&T)

– Vehicle Well-to-Wheel carbon emissions to 20 g/mi (12.4 g/km); equivalent to 73 gCO2/mile, or ~45 gCO2/km

• Vehicle Technology can be only one component of the solution

• Need for a combination of strategies.

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Consumer (and government) perceptions

• Climate change• Severity and timing of climate change impacts• Technology capability of auto industry• Role of the auto industry• Major perceptual challenge for automakers (Bill Reinert):

The First Law of Thermodynamics vs.

The First Law of Disney(i.e., wishing makes it so)

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Japan’s Three-Legged Approach to Reducing CO2 from the Transport Sector

Source: JAMA, Looking to the Future

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