Perspectives on Unmanned Air Cargo
Alain LumbrosoEconomist
International Transport Forum - OECD
Alainlumbrosooecdorg
Unmanned Cargo Aircraft Conference
The Hague February 5th 2015
Content
bull Introduction to the ITF
bull Uses for UCA
bull Challenges for UCA
bull Aircraft platform perspectives
bull Parting thoughts
2
What is the ITF
3
54 member countries ofwhich 21 non-OECD
Housed by OECD
Council of Ministersof Transport rotating Annual presidency
Legal instruments EuropeanMultilateral Quota System(Road Freight)
Presently preparing for expansion of membership
4
Annual Summit
Ministerial Meeting and Declaration from Ministers
Ministersrsquo Roundtables
Panel Discussions with Ministers Industry Research Civil Society
Bilaterals and Networking
Exhibition
1100 participants (2014)
5
Think Tank
Evidence-based research and analysis
Data and statistics
Identification of best-practice policies
Institutionalised in OECDITF Joint Transport Research Centre (JTRC)
Transportation demand forecast to 2050
Some aviation research projects
The case for aviation liberalistion (on-going)
Airport capacity expansion in large urban areas
Expanding Airport Capacity Competition and Connectivity The case of Gatwick and Heathrow
Air service liberation and airline alliances
Contemporary Airport Demand Forecasting
bull In the Framework of the JTRC (within regular budget)
ndashRound Tables Events for deep discussion of topical issues
(long tradition)
ndashCollaborative Research Projects with active participation
of the member countriesrsquo research institutions
ndashIRTAD and Transport Outlook
bull With additional resources
ndashHorizontal collaboration with OECD directorates
ndashCountry Specific Policy Analysis Projects (quick response)
ndashProjects with direct engagement of companies in the
framework of the CPB ndash Corporate Partnership Board
Main activities on the think-tank component of ITF
The ITF and Unmanned Vehicles
bull Two ITF projects on unmanned transportation
ndash Integrating new technology into the existing regulatory framework
ndash Modelled wide use of automated and shared road vehicles in Lisbon
bull Conclusions find that new technology is highly
distributive forces a rethink of mobility and
regulations
bull Innovators must remain in lock step with regulators
bull Role for ITF Conduct research in emerging
unmanned vehicle issues and inform decision-makers
7
Unmanned transportation Revolutionary
8
Albert Einstein
ATV 2013
TrAAin
DFW 1973
Peoplemover
Disneyland 1967
OrlyVal
Orly 1991
SkyTrain
Vancouver
1985
AGV Rotterdam
1989
Soyuz
1967
Metro Line14
Paris 1998
Autopilot B-777
Autopilot B-707
Mercedes F015
2015
The revolution is not as much the fact that it is unmanned
as the fact technology is increasingly autonomous
Potential applications for UCAs
bull New point-to-point hub bypass services providing
smaller communities with enhanced global
connectivity
bull Service to remote andor inhospitable areas with
limited infrastructure (northern latitudes remote
areas deserts oil platforms archipelagoes)
bull Ad-hoc charter service with limited repositioning
flights high aircraft utilization
bull Low cost alternative for smaller loads to manned
air cargo while maintaining the speed advantage
of air
9
Outlook
bull Boeing expects 2170 new freighters
delivered by 2033 including 962 20t
freighters
bull However air cargo capacity is
increasingly shifting from freighters to
passenger aircraft
bull Air cargo activity growing faster in
express than freight or air mail
bull Is UCA enough of a game changer to
augment overall air cargo or simply take
a share of the market Creation or
substitution Or both
10
Source Boeing WACF (2013)
Regulatory context
bull Unmanned flying is not a new regulatory concern
despite recent attention on drones
bull Recent attention focused on privately operated UAVs
bull Ultimate step in a half century of depopulating of the
flight deck (navigator flight engineer radio
operator)will require strong buy-in from the
regulator
bull May need regulation to hard-wire adherence to no fly
zones (ie regulated electronic geofencing)
11
No aircraft capable of being flown without a pilot shall be flown without a pilot over the territory of a
contracting State without special authorization by that State and in accordance with the terms of such
authorization Each contracting State undertakes to insure that the flight of such aircraft without a pilot in
regions open to civil aircraft shall be so controlled as to obviate danger to civil aircraft
- Chicago Convention 1944
Remotely controlled vs fully autonomousHow much automation for UCA
bull Maintaining human command can facilitate interaction with air
traffic control
bull Human command could better address emergencies and would
facilitate interactions between manned and unmanned aircraft
bull Social license less problematic if some human command is
maintained
bull Could human command and automated control of the aircraft be
separated functions
Buthellip
bull K-Max accident (2013) in Afghanistan was due to human
communication errors ndash would a similar accident happen in a
manned aircraft
bull UAVs lack the redundancy that make manned aircraft so safe
12
Economic challenges
bull Payload capacity must be sufficient to be economically viable
bull Some labour savings offset by operator costs increased
ground handling
bull Large UCA to compete with converted B-737A-320 (20t
payload)
bull Air freight do not seek direct routes
bull How do UCA fit within the context of air transport
agreements
bull Long range UCA will generate similar yields than manned
aircraft ndash will they have the same economies of scale
bull Limited market may prove difficult to amortize RampD costs
13
The economics of manufacturing and of air cargo will
determine whether UCA
Air Navigation Challenges
All UAVs
bull Safe interaction between UCA ATC and manned aircraft is
essential
bull UCA must be able to acknowledge and respond to ATC
commands in controlled airspace and maintain traffic and terrain
avoidance in uncontrolled airspace
bull UAV-dedicated corridors feasible in some non-congestedremote
airspace
UCArsquos added challenge
bull Operating safely in high-density heavy air traffic environment
14
Getting UCA and ANS to work together is likely the
greatest operational challenge
Legal challenges
bullHow do existing laws apply to UCA
bullDoes a remote operator have the same
legal authority and liability as a pilot in
charge
bullWhat are the certification requirements for
a remote operator
bullUCA development needs to be in step with
regulatory development
15
Regulatory changes require considerable lead-up time
and forward planning Are regulators ready for UCA
Technological challenges
bull The technology to have a UCA already exists ndash
requires fine tuning for mass market commercial
application
bull Human override possible at all times
bull Aircraft must be hacker-proof
bull As UCAs gain in size it will create security-related
concerns (ie can a UCA be weaponized)
bull UCA operator training programs will need to be
developed will skilled labour be an issue What can
we learn from the militaryrsquos experience with UAV
16
The Aircraft Platform
bull UCA can take many forms
ndash Conventional aircraft
ndash Helicopter (K-Max)
ndash Airship (LDTV)
ndash Purpose-design UCA
bull Military technology adapted to civilian use would
significantly lower development costs but make
UCA development dependent on military needs
bull Aircraft would need to be compatible with
existing air navigation requirements and ground
equipment
17
Perspectives for Conventional Aircraft
bull Converting existing manned aircraft into unmanned
aircraft would require mostly avionics changes
bull Main savings derived from labour Savings increases
with stage length when fuel is a relatively smaller
cost factor
bull Could be combined with automated taxiing (ie
Taxibot)
bull Integrates well within existing flight traffic patterns
bull Interfaces well with existing ground equipment
18
Perspectives for helicopters
bull K-Max has demonstrated the feasibility of the concept as
both a small freighter and a waterbomber
bull VTOL ideal for areas with no infrastructure or oil platforms
bull Limited range
bull Limited payload capacity (2-3t) best suited for emergency
transport or military operations (avoiding casualties) but
negates economies of scale Is there a significant civilian
market
bull Helicopters not a major factor in the civilian air cargo
market
19
Perspectives for Airships
bull Airships are targeting similar markets to large
UCA would the answer be unmanned airships
bull Airships fare relatively badly on the Gabrielli-Von
Karman line expanding high energy for low speed
bull Major airship-related issues include the need for
specialized ground crew ballast to compensate
empty loads limited markets limited utilization
20
Lighter Than Air is not without its technical problems Although modern
technology may be able to overcome these problems the ultimate issue
could be the economic feasibility of Lighter Than Air
Interagency Workshop on Lighter than Air Vehicles 1975
Is combining UAV and
airships putting too much risk
on UCA
Perspective for Custom designed aircraft
bull Best aircraft to fully maximize the benefits of
unmanned flight
bull Makes best use of fuselage volume
bull Very high altitudelow speed cruise to minimize fuel
burn
bull Could be designed to operate from gravel runways
snow or VSTOL
bull Potential to leverage military use to amortize
development costs
21
Is the UCA market large enough to off-set aircraft
development costs
Some parting thoughts
bull Since the advent of the jet age civil aviation has been
evolutionary not revolutionary
bull The challenge for civilian UCA is not as much technological as
it is
Economic Are labour savings significant enough Is the model
economically sound from an air cargo and an aircraft manufacturing
perspective
Coordination Enabling UCA to share common airspace with manned
civilian aircraft
Regulatory Ensuring regulations do not impede progress while still
maintaining aviationrsquos highest safety standards
Social license Unmanned aircraft must be perceived as safe by the non-
flying public
bull ITF can help by raising awareness of UCA with member
countries and at the Summit panel on air freight and Ministerrsquos
roundtable on drones and autonomous driving
22
Thank you very much Dank Je
23
2015 Summit on
Transport Trade and Tourism
27 ndash 29 May 2015
Leipzig Germany
http2015internationaltransportforumorg
Content
bull Introduction to the ITF
bull Uses for UCA
bull Challenges for UCA
bull Aircraft platform perspectives
bull Parting thoughts
2
What is the ITF
3
54 member countries ofwhich 21 non-OECD
Housed by OECD
Council of Ministersof Transport rotating Annual presidency
Legal instruments EuropeanMultilateral Quota System(Road Freight)
Presently preparing for expansion of membership
4
Annual Summit
Ministerial Meeting and Declaration from Ministers
Ministersrsquo Roundtables
Panel Discussions with Ministers Industry Research Civil Society
Bilaterals and Networking
Exhibition
1100 participants (2014)
5
Think Tank
Evidence-based research and analysis
Data and statistics
Identification of best-practice policies
Institutionalised in OECDITF Joint Transport Research Centre (JTRC)
Transportation demand forecast to 2050
Some aviation research projects
The case for aviation liberalistion (on-going)
Airport capacity expansion in large urban areas
Expanding Airport Capacity Competition and Connectivity The case of Gatwick and Heathrow
Air service liberation and airline alliances
Contemporary Airport Demand Forecasting
bull In the Framework of the JTRC (within regular budget)
ndashRound Tables Events for deep discussion of topical issues
(long tradition)
ndashCollaborative Research Projects with active participation
of the member countriesrsquo research institutions
ndashIRTAD and Transport Outlook
bull With additional resources
ndashHorizontal collaboration with OECD directorates
ndashCountry Specific Policy Analysis Projects (quick response)
ndashProjects with direct engagement of companies in the
framework of the CPB ndash Corporate Partnership Board
Main activities on the think-tank component of ITF
The ITF and Unmanned Vehicles
bull Two ITF projects on unmanned transportation
ndash Integrating new technology into the existing regulatory framework
ndash Modelled wide use of automated and shared road vehicles in Lisbon
bull Conclusions find that new technology is highly
distributive forces a rethink of mobility and
regulations
bull Innovators must remain in lock step with regulators
bull Role for ITF Conduct research in emerging
unmanned vehicle issues and inform decision-makers
7
Unmanned transportation Revolutionary
8
Albert Einstein
ATV 2013
TrAAin
DFW 1973
Peoplemover
Disneyland 1967
OrlyVal
Orly 1991
SkyTrain
Vancouver
1985
AGV Rotterdam
1989
Soyuz
1967
Metro Line14
Paris 1998
Autopilot B-777
Autopilot B-707
Mercedes F015
2015
The revolution is not as much the fact that it is unmanned
as the fact technology is increasingly autonomous
Potential applications for UCAs
bull New point-to-point hub bypass services providing
smaller communities with enhanced global
connectivity
bull Service to remote andor inhospitable areas with
limited infrastructure (northern latitudes remote
areas deserts oil platforms archipelagoes)
bull Ad-hoc charter service with limited repositioning
flights high aircraft utilization
bull Low cost alternative for smaller loads to manned
air cargo while maintaining the speed advantage
of air
9
Outlook
bull Boeing expects 2170 new freighters
delivered by 2033 including 962 20t
freighters
bull However air cargo capacity is
increasingly shifting from freighters to
passenger aircraft
bull Air cargo activity growing faster in
express than freight or air mail
bull Is UCA enough of a game changer to
augment overall air cargo or simply take
a share of the market Creation or
substitution Or both
10
Source Boeing WACF (2013)
Regulatory context
bull Unmanned flying is not a new regulatory concern
despite recent attention on drones
bull Recent attention focused on privately operated UAVs
bull Ultimate step in a half century of depopulating of the
flight deck (navigator flight engineer radio
operator)will require strong buy-in from the
regulator
bull May need regulation to hard-wire adherence to no fly
zones (ie regulated electronic geofencing)
11
No aircraft capable of being flown without a pilot shall be flown without a pilot over the territory of a
contracting State without special authorization by that State and in accordance with the terms of such
authorization Each contracting State undertakes to insure that the flight of such aircraft without a pilot in
regions open to civil aircraft shall be so controlled as to obviate danger to civil aircraft
- Chicago Convention 1944
Remotely controlled vs fully autonomousHow much automation for UCA
bull Maintaining human command can facilitate interaction with air
traffic control
bull Human command could better address emergencies and would
facilitate interactions between manned and unmanned aircraft
bull Social license less problematic if some human command is
maintained
bull Could human command and automated control of the aircraft be
separated functions
Buthellip
bull K-Max accident (2013) in Afghanistan was due to human
communication errors ndash would a similar accident happen in a
manned aircraft
bull UAVs lack the redundancy that make manned aircraft so safe
12
Economic challenges
bull Payload capacity must be sufficient to be economically viable
bull Some labour savings offset by operator costs increased
ground handling
bull Large UCA to compete with converted B-737A-320 (20t
payload)
bull Air freight do not seek direct routes
bull How do UCA fit within the context of air transport
agreements
bull Long range UCA will generate similar yields than manned
aircraft ndash will they have the same economies of scale
bull Limited market may prove difficult to amortize RampD costs
13
The economics of manufacturing and of air cargo will
determine whether UCA
Air Navigation Challenges
All UAVs
bull Safe interaction between UCA ATC and manned aircraft is
essential
bull UCA must be able to acknowledge and respond to ATC
commands in controlled airspace and maintain traffic and terrain
avoidance in uncontrolled airspace
bull UAV-dedicated corridors feasible in some non-congestedremote
airspace
UCArsquos added challenge
bull Operating safely in high-density heavy air traffic environment
14
Getting UCA and ANS to work together is likely the
greatest operational challenge
Legal challenges
bullHow do existing laws apply to UCA
bullDoes a remote operator have the same
legal authority and liability as a pilot in
charge
bullWhat are the certification requirements for
a remote operator
bullUCA development needs to be in step with
regulatory development
15
Regulatory changes require considerable lead-up time
and forward planning Are regulators ready for UCA
Technological challenges
bull The technology to have a UCA already exists ndash
requires fine tuning for mass market commercial
application
bull Human override possible at all times
bull Aircraft must be hacker-proof
bull As UCAs gain in size it will create security-related
concerns (ie can a UCA be weaponized)
bull UCA operator training programs will need to be
developed will skilled labour be an issue What can
we learn from the militaryrsquos experience with UAV
16
The Aircraft Platform
bull UCA can take many forms
ndash Conventional aircraft
ndash Helicopter (K-Max)
ndash Airship (LDTV)
ndash Purpose-design UCA
bull Military technology adapted to civilian use would
significantly lower development costs but make
UCA development dependent on military needs
bull Aircraft would need to be compatible with
existing air navigation requirements and ground
equipment
17
Perspectives for Conventional Aircraft
bull Converting existing manned aircraft into unmanned
aircraft would require mostly avionics changes
bull Main savings derived from labour Savings increases
with stage length when fuel is a relatively smaller
cost factor
bull Could be combined with automated taxiing (ie
Taxibot)
bull Integrates well within existing flight traffic patterns
bull Interfaces well with existing ground equipment
18
Perspectives for helicopters
bull K-Max has demonstrated the feasibility of the concept as
both a small freighter and a waterbomber
bull VTOL ideal for areas with no infrastructure or oil platforms
bull Limited range
bull Limited payload capacity (2-3t) best suited for emergency
transport or military operations (avoiding casualties) but
negates economies of scale Is there a significant civilian
market
bull Helicopters not a major factor in the civilian air cargo
market
19
Perspectives for Airships
bull Airships are targeting similar markets to large
UCA would the answer be unmanned airships
bull Airships fare relatively badly on the Gabrielli-Von
Karman line expanding high energy for low speed
bull Major airship-related issues include the need for
specialized ground crew ballast to compensate
empty loads limited markets limited utilization
20
Lighter Than Air is not without its technical problems Although modern
technology may be able to overcome these problems the ultimate issue
could be the economic feasibility of Lighter Than Air
Interagency Workshop on Lighter than Air Vehicles 1975
Is combining UAV and
airships putting too much risk
on UCA
Perspective for Custom designed aircraft
bull Best aircraft to fully maximize the benefits of
unmanned flight
bull Makes best use of fuselage volume
bull Very high altitudelow speed cruise to minimize fuel
burn
bull Could be designed to operate from gravel runways
snow or VSTOL
bull Potential to leverage military use to amortize
development costs
21
Is the UCA market large enough to off-set aircraft
development costs
Some parting thoughts
bull Since the advent of the jet age civil aviation has been
evolutionary not revolutionary
bull The challenge for civilian UCA is not as much technological as
it is
Economic Are labour savings significant enough Is the model
economically sound from an air cargo and an aircraft manufacturing
perspective
Coordination Enabling UCA to share common airspace with manned
civilian aircraft
Regulatory Ensuring regulations do not impede progress while still
maintaining aviationrsquos highest safety standards
Social license Unmanned aircraft must be perceived as safe by the non-
flying public
bull ITF can help by raising awareness of UCA with member
countries and at the Summit panel on air freight and Ministerrsquos
roundtable on drones and autonomous driving
22
Thank you very much Dank Je
23
2015 Summit on
Transport Trade and Tourism
27 ndash 29 May 2015
Leipzig Germany
http2015internationaltransportforumorg
What is the ITF
3
54 member countries ofwhich 21 non-OECD
Housed by OECD
Council of Ministersof Transport rotating Annual presidency
Legal instruments EuropeanMultilateral Quota System(Road Freight)
Presently preparing for expansion of membership
4
Annual Summit
Ministerial Meeting and Declaration from Ministers
Ministersrsquo Roundtables
Panel Discussions with Ministers Industry Research Civil Society
Bilaterals and Networking
Exhibition
1100 participants (2014)
5
Think Tank
Evidence-based research and analysis
Data and statistics
Identification of best-practice policies
Institutionalised in OECDITF Joint Transport Research Centre (JTRC)
Transportation demand forecast to 2050
Some aviation research projects
The case for aviation liberalistion (on-going)
Airport capacity expansion in large urban areas
Expanding Airport Capacity Competition and Connectivity The case of Gatwick and Heathrow
Air service liberation and airline alliances
Contemporary Airport Demand Forecasting
bull In the Framework of the JTRC (within regular budget)
ndashRound Tables Events for deep discussion of topical issues
(long tradition)
ndashCollaborative Research Projects with active participation
of the member countriesrsquo research institutions
ndashIRTAD and Transport Outlook
bull With additional resources
ndashHorizontal collaboration with OECD directorates
ndashCountry Specific Policy Analysis Projects (quick response)
ndashProjects with direct engagement of companies in the
framework of the CPB ndash Corporate Partnership Board
Main activities on the think-tank component of ITF
The ITF and Unmanned Vehicles
bull Two ITF projects on unmanned transportation
ndash Integrating new technology into the existing regulatory framework
ndash Modelled wide use of automated and shared road vehicles in Lisbon
bull Conclusions find that new technology is highly
distributive forces a rethink of mobility and
regulations
bull Innovators must remain in lock step with regulators
bull Role for ITF Conduct research in emerging
unmanned vehicle issues and inform decision-makers
7
Unmanned transportation Revolutionary
8
Albert Einstein
ATV 2013
TrAAin
DFW 1973
Peoplemover
Disneyland 1967
OrlyVal
Orly 1991
SkyTrain
Vancouver
1985
AGV Rotterdam
1989
Soyuz
1967
Metro Line14
Paris 1998
Autopilot B-777
Autopilot B-707
Mercedes F015
2015
The revolution is not as much the fact that it is unmanned
as the fact technology is increasingly autonomous
Potential applications for UCAs
bull New point-to-point hub bypass services providing
smaller communities with enhanced global
connectivity
bull Service to remote andor inhospitable areas with
limited infrastructure (northern latitudes remote
areas deserts oil platforms archipelagoes)
bull Ad-hoc charter service with limited repositioning
flights high aircraft utilization
bull Low cost alternative for smaller loads to manned
air cargo while maintaining the speed advantage
of air
9
Outlook
bull Boeing expects 2170 new freighters
delivered by 2033 including 962 20t
freighters
bull However air cargo capacity is
increasingly shifting from freighters to
passenger aircraft
bull Air cargo activity growing faster in
express than freight or air mail
bull Is UCA enough of a game changer to
augment overall air cargo or simply take
a share of the market Creation or
substitution Or both
10
Source Boeing WACF (2013)
Regulatory context
bull Unmanned flying is not a new regulatory concern
despite recent attention on drones
bull Recent attention focused on privately operated UAVs
bull Ultimate step in a half century of depopulating of the
flight deck (navigator flight engineer radio
operator)will require strong buy-in from the
regulator
bull May need regulation to hard-wire adherence to no fly
zones (ie regulated electronic geofencing)
11
No aircraft capable of being flown without a pilot shall be flown without a pilot over the territory of a
contracting State without special authorization by that State and in accordance with the terms of such
authorization Each contracting State undertakes to insure that the flight of such aircraft without a pilot in
regions open to civil aircraft shall be so controlled as to obviate danger to civil aircraft
- Chicago Convention 1944
Remotely controlled vs fully autonomousHow much automation for UCA
bull Maintaining human command can facilitate interaction with air
traffic control
bull Human command could better address emergencies and would
facilitate interactions between manned and unmanned aircraft
bull Social license less problematic if some human command is
maintained
bull Could human command and automated control of the aircraft be
separated functions
Buthellip
bull K-Max accident (2013) in Afghanistan was due to human
communication errors ndash would a similar accident happen in a
manned aircraft
bull UAVs lack the redundancy that make manned aircraft so safe
12
Economic challenges
bull Payload capacity must be sufficient to be economically viable
bull Some labour savings offset by operator costs increased
ground handling
bull Large UCA to compete with converted B-737A-320 (20t
payload)
bull Air freight do not seek direct routes
bull How do UCA fit within the context of air transport
agreements
bull Long range UCA will generate similar yields than manned
aircraft ndash will they have the same economies of scale
bull Limited market may prove difficult to amortize RampD costs
13
The economics of manufacturing and of air cargo will
determine whether UCA
Air Navigation Challenges
All UAVs
bull Safe interaction between UCA ATC and manned aircraft is
essential
bull UCA must be able to acknowledge and respond to ATC
commands in controlled airspace and maintain traffic and terrain
avoidance in uncontrolled airspace
bull UAV-dedicated corridors feasible in some non-congestedremote
airspace
UCArsquos added challenge
bull Operating safely in high-density heavy air traffic environment
14
Getting UCA and ANS to work together is likely the
greatest operational challenge
Legal challenges
bullHow do existing laws apply to UCA
bullDoes a remote operator have the same
legal authority and liability as a pilot in
charge
bullWhat are the certification requirements for
a remote operator
bullUCA development needs to be in step with
regulatory development
15
Regulatory changes require considerable lead-up time
and forward planning Are regulators ready for UCA
Technological challenges
bull The technology to have a UCA already exists ndash
requires fine tuning for mass market commercial
application
bull Human override possible at all times
bull Aircraft must be hacker-proof
bull As UCAs gain in size it will create security-related
concerns (ie can a UCA be weaponized)
bull UCA operator training programs will need to be
developed will skilled labour be an issue What can
we learn from the militaryrsquos experience with UAV
16
The Aircraft Platform
bull UCA can take many forms
ndash Conventional aircraft
ndash Helicopter (K-Max)
ndash Airship (LDTV)
ndash Purpose-design UCA
bull Military technology adapted to civilian use would
significantly lower development costs but make
UCA development dependent on military needs
bull Aircraft would need to be compatible with
existing air navigation requirements and ground
equipment
17
Perspectives for Conventional Aircraft
bull Converting existing manned aircraft into unmanned
aircraft would require mostly avionics changes
bull Main savings derived from labour Savings increases
with stage length when fuel is a relatively smaller
cost factor
bull Could be combined with automated taxiing (ie
Taxibot)
bull Integrates well within existing flight traffic patterns
bull Interfaces well with existing ground equipment
18
Perspectives for helicopters
bull K-Max has demonstrated the feasibility of the concept as
both a small freighter and a waterbomber
bull VTOL ideal for areas with no infrastructure or oil platforms
bull Limited range
bull Limited payload capacity (2-3t) best suited for emergency
transport or military operations (avoiding casualties) but
negates economies of scale Is there a significant civilian
market
bull Helicopters not a major factor in the civilian air cargo
market
19
Perspectives for Airships
bull Airships are targeting similar markets to large
UCA would the answer be unmanned airships
bull Airships fare relatively badly on the Gabrielli-Von
Karman line expanding high energy for low speed
bull Major airship-related issues include the need for
specialized ground crew ballast to compensate
empty loads limited markets limited utilization
20
Lighter Than Air is not without its technical problems Although modern
technology may be able to overcome these problems the ultimate issue
could be the economic feasibility of Lighter Than Air
Interagency Workshop on Lighter than Air Vehicles 1975
Is combining UAV and
airships putting too much risk
on UCA
Perspective for Custom designed aircraft
bull Best aircraft to fully maximize the benefits of
unmanned flight
bull Makes best use of fuselage volume
bull Very high altitudelow speed cruise to minimize fuel
burn
bull Could be designed to operate from gravel runways
snow or VSTOL
bull Potential to leverage military use to amortize
development costs
21
Is the UCA market large enough to off-set aircraft
development costs
Some parting thoughts
bull Since the advent of the jet age civil aviation has been
evolutionary not revolutionary
bull The challenge for civilian UCA is not as much technological as
it is
Economic Are labour savings significant enough Is the model
economically sound from an air cargo and an aircraft manufacturing
perspective
Coordination Enabling UCA to share common airspace with manned
civilian aircraft
Regulatory Ensuring regulations do not impede progress while still
maintaining aviationrsquos highest safety standards
Social license Unmanned aircraft must be perceived as safe by the non-
flying public
bull ITF can help by raising awareness of UCA with member
countries and at the Summit panel on air freight and Ministerrsquos
roundtable on drones and autonomous driving
22
Thank you very much Dank Je
23
2015 Summit on
Transport Trade and Tourism
27 ndash 29 May 2015
Leipzig Germany
http2015internationaltransportforumorg
4
Annual Summit
Ministerial Meeting and Declaration from Ministers
Ministersrsquo Roundtables
Panel Discussions with Ministers Industry Research Civil Society
Bilaterals and Networking
Exhibition
1100 participants (2014)
5
Think Tank
Evidence-based research and analysis
Data and statistics
Identification of best-practice policies
Institutionalised in OECDITF Joint Transport Research Centre (JTRC)
Transportation demand forecast to 2050
Some aviation research projects
The case for aviation liberalistion (on-going)
Airport capacity expansion in large urban areas
Expanding Airport Capacity Competition and Connectivity The case of Gatwick and Heathrow
Air service liberation and airline alliances
Contemporary Airport Demand Forecasting
bull In the Framework of the JTRC (within regular budget)
ndashRound Tables Events for deep discussion of topical issues
(long tradition)
ndashCollaborative Research Projects with active participation
of the member countriesrsquo research institutions
ndashIRTAD and Transport Outlook
bull With additional resources
ndashHorizontal collaboration with OECD directorates
ndashCountry Specific Policy Analysis Projects (quick response)
ndashProjects with direct engagement of companies in the
framework of the CPB ndash Corporate Partnership Board
Main activities on the think-tank component of ITF
The ITF and Unmanned Vehicles
bull Two ITF projects on unmanned transportation
ndash Integrating new technology into the existing regulatory framework
ndash Modelled wide use of automated and shared road vehicles in Lisbon
bull Conclusions find that new technology is highly
distributive forces a rethink of mobility and
regulations
bull Innovators must remain in lock step with regulators
bull Role for ITF Conduct research in emerging
unmanned vehicle issues and inform decision-makers
7
Unmanned transportation Revolutionary
8
Albert Einstein
ATV 2013
TrAAin
DFW 1973
Peoplemover
Disneyland 1967
OrlyVal
Orly 1991
SkyTrain
Vancouver
1985
AGV Rotterdam
1989
Soyuz
1967
Metro Line14
Paris 1998
Autopilot B-777
Autopilot B-707
Mercedes F015
2015
The revolution is not as much the fact that it is unmanned
as the fact technology is increasingly autonomous
Potential applications for UCAs
bull New point-to-point hub bypass services providing
smaller communities with enhanced global
connectivity
bull Service to remote andor inhospitable areas with
limited infrastructure (northern latitudes remote
areas deserts oil platforms archipelagoes)
bull Ad-hoc charter service with limited repositioning
flights high aircraft utilization
bull Low cost alternative for smaller loads to manned
air cargo while maintaining the speed advantage
of air
9
Outlook
bull Boeing expects 2170 new freighters
delivered by 2033 including 962 20t
freighters
bull However air cargo capacity is
increasingly shifting from freighters to
passenger aircraft
bull Air cargo activity growing faster in
express than freight or air mail
bull Is UCA enough of a game changer to
augment overall air cargo or simply take
a share of the market Creation or
substitution Or both
10
Source Boeing WACF (2013)
Regulatory context
bull Unmanned flying is not a new regulatory concern
despite recent attention on drones
bull Recent attention focused on privately operated UAVs
bull Ultimate step in a half century of depopulating of the
flight deck (navigator flight engineer radio
operator)will require strong buy-in from the
regulator
bull May need regulation to hard-wire adherence to no fly
zones (ie regulated electronic geofencing)
11
No aircraft capable of being flown without a pilot shall be flown without a pilot over the territory of a
contracting State without special authorization by that State and in accordance with the terms of such
authorization Each contracting State undertakes to insure that the flight of such aircraft without a pilot in
regions open to civil aircraft shall be so controlled as to obviate danger to civil aircraft
- Chicago Convention 1944
Remotely controlled vs fully autonomousHow much automation for UCA
bull Maintaining human command can facilitate interaction with air
traffic control
bull Human command could better address emergencies and would
facilitate interactions between manned and unmanned aircraft
bull Social license less problematic if some human command is
maintained
bull Could human command and automated control of the aircraft be
separated functions
Buthellip
bull K-Max accident (2013) in Afghanistan was due to human
communication errors ndash would a similar accident happen in a
manned aircraft
bull UAVs lack the redundancy that make manned aircraft so safe
12
Economic challenges
bull Payload capacity must be sufficient to be economically viable
bull Some labour savings offset by operator costs increased
ground handling
bull Large UCA to compete with converted B-737A-320 (20t
payload)
bull Air freight do not seek direct routes
bull How do UCA fit within the context of air transport
agreements
bull Long range UCA will generate similar yields than manned
aircraft ndash will they have the same economies of scale
bull Limited market may prove difficult to amortize RampD costs
13
The economics of manufacturing and of air cargo will
determine whether UCA
Air Navigation Challenges
All UAVs
bull Safe interaction between UCA ATC and manned aircraft is
essential
bull UCA must be able to acknowledge and respond to ATC
commands in controlled airspace and maintain traffic and terrain
avoidance in uncontrolled airspace
bull UAV-dedicated corridors feasible in some non-congestedremote
airspace
UCArsquos added challenge
bull Operating safely in high-density heavy air traffic environment
14
Getting UCA and ANS to work together is likely the
greatest operational challenge
Legal challenges
bullHow do existing laws apply to UCA
bullDoes a remote operator have the same
legal authority and liability as a pilot in
charge
bullWhat are the certification requirements for
a remote operator
bullUCA development needs to be in step with
regulatory development
15
Regulatory changes require considerable lead-up time
and forward planning Are regulators ready for UCA
Technological challenges
bull The technology to have a UCA already exists ndash
requires fine tuning for mass market commercial
application
bull Human override possible at all times
bull Aircraft must be hacker-proof
bull As UCAs gain in size it will create security-related
concerns (ie can a UCA be weaponized)
bull UCA operator training programs will need to be
developed will skilled labour be an issue What can
we learn from the militaryrsquos experience with UAV
16
The Aircraft Platform
bull UCA can take many forms
ndash Conventional aircraft
ndash Helicopter (K-Max)
ndash Airship (LDTV)
ndash Purpose-design UCA
bull Military technology adapted to civilian use would
significantly lower development costs but make
UCA development dependent on military needs
bull Aircraft would need to be compatible with
existing air navigation requirements and ground
equipment
17
Perspectives for Conventional Aircraft
bull Converting existing manned aircraft into unmanned
aircraft would require mostly avionics changes
bull Main savings derived from labour Savings increases
with stage length when fuel is a relatively smaller
cost factor
bull Could be combined with automated taxiing (ie
Taxibot)
bull Integrates well within existing flight traffic patterns
bull Interfaces well with existing ground equipment
18
Perspectives for helicopters
bull K-Max has demonstrated the feasibility of the concept as
both a small freighter and a waterbomber
bull VTOL ideal for areas with no infrastructure or oil platforms
bull Limited range
bull Limited payload capacity (2-3t) best suited for emergency
transport or military operations (avoiding casualties) but
negates economies of scale Is there a significant civilian
market
bull Helicopters not a major factor in the civilian air cargo
market
19
Perspectives for Airships
bull Airships are targeting similar markets to large
UCA would the answer be unmanned airships
bull Airships fare relatively badly on the Gabrielli-Von
Karman line expanding high energy for low speed
bull Major airship-related issues include the need for
specialized ground crew ballast to compensate
empty loads limited markets limited utilization
20
Lighter Than Air is not without its technical problems Although modern
technology may be able to overcome these problems the ultimate issue
could be the economic feasibility of Lighter Than Air
Interagency Workshop on Lighter than Air Vehicles 1975
Is combining UAV and
airships putting too much risk
on UCA
Perspective for Custom designed aircraft
bull Best aircraft to fully maximize the benefits of
unmanned flight
bull Makes best use of fuselage volume
bull Very high altitudelow speed cruise to minimize fuel
burn
bull Could be designed to operate from gravel runways
snow or VSTOL
bull Potential to leverage military use to amortize
development costs
21
Is the UCA market large enough to off-set aircraft
development costs
Some parting thoughts
bull Since the advent of the jet age civil aviation has been
evolutionary not revolutionary
bull The challenge for civilian UCA is not as much technological as
it is
Economic Are labour savings significant enough Is the model
economically sound from an air cargo and an aircraft manufacturing
perspective
Coordination Enabling UCA to share common airspace with manned
civilian aircraft
Regulatory Ensuring regulations do not impede progress while still
maintaining aviationrsquos highest safety standards
Social license Unmanned aircraft must be perceived as safe by the non-
flying public
bull ITF can help by raising awareness of UCA with member
countries and at the Summit panel on air freight and Ministerrsquos
roundtable on drones and autonomous driving
22
Thank you very much Dank Je
23
2015 Summit on
Transport Trade and Tourism
27 ndash 29 May 2015
Leipzig Germany
http2015internationaltransportforumorg
5
Think Tank
Evidence-based research and analysis
Data and statistics
Identification of best-practice policies
Institutionalised in OECDITF Joint Transport Research Centre (JTRC)
Transportation demand forecast to 2050
Some aviation research projects
The case for aviation liberalistion (on-going)
Airport capacity expansion in large urban areas
Expanding Airport Capacity Competition and Connectivity The case of Gatwick and Heathrow
Air service liberation and airline alliances
Contemporary Airport Demand Forecasting
bull In the Framework of the JTRC (within regular budget)
ndashRound Tables Events for deep discussion of topical issues
(long tradition)
ndashCollaborative Research Projects with active participation
of the member countriesrsquo research institutions
ndashIRTAD and Transport Outlook
bull With additional resources
ndashHorizontal collaboration with OECD directorates
ndashCountry Specific Policy Analysis Projects (quick response)
ndashProjects with direct engagement of companies in the
framework of the CPB ndash Corporate Partnership Board
Main activities on the think-tank component of ITF
The ITF and Unmanned Vehicles
bull Two ITF projects on unmanned transportation
ndash Integrating new technology into the existing regulatory framework
ndash Modelled wide use of automated and shared road vehicles in Lisbon
bull Conclusions find that new technology is highly
distributive forces a rethink of mobility and
regulations
bull Innovators must remain in lock step with regulators
bull Role for ITF Conduct research in emerging
unmanned vehicle issues and inform decision-makers
7
Unmanned transportation Revolutionary
8
Albert Einstein
ATV 2013
TrAAin
DFW 1973
Peoplemover
Disneyland 1967
OrlyVal
Orly 1991
SkyTrain
Vancouver
1985
AGV Rotterdam
1989
Soyuz
1967
Metro Line14
Paris 1998
Autopilot B-777
Autopilot B-707
Mercedes F015
2015
The revolution is not as much the fact that it is unmanned
as the fact technology is increasingly autonomous
Potential applications for UCAs
bull New point-to-point hub bypass services providing
smaller communities with enhanced global
connectivity
bull Service to remote andor inhospitable areas with
limited infrastructure (northern latitudes remote
areas deserts oil platforms archipelagoes)
bull Ad-hoc charter service with limited repositioning
flights high aircraft utilization
bull Low cost alternative for smaller loads to manned
air cargo while maintaining the speed advantage
of air
9
Outlook
bull Boeing expects 2170 new freighters
delivered by 2033 including 962 20t
freighters
bull However air cargo capacity is
increasingly shifting from freighters to
passenger aircraft
bull Air cargo activity growing faster in
express than freight or air mail
bull Is UCA enough of a game changer to
augment overall air cargo or simply take
a share of the market Creation or
substitution Or both
10
Source Boeing WACF (2013)
Regulatory context
bull Unmanned flying is not a new regulatory concern
despite recent attention on drones
bull Recent attention focused on privately operated UAVs
bull Ultimate step in a half century of depopulating of the
flight deck (navigator flight engineer radio
operator)will require strong buy-in from the
regulator
bull May need regulation to hard-wire adherence to no fly
zones (ie regulated electronic geofencing)
11
No aircraft capable of being flown without a pilot shall be flown without a pilot over the territory of a
contracting State without special authorization by that State and in accordance with the terms of such
authorization Each contracting State undertakes to insure that the flight of such aircraft without a pilot in
regions open to civil aircraft shall be so controlled as to obviate danger to civil aircraft
- Chicago Convention 1944
Remotely controlled vs fully autonomousHow much automation for UCA
bull Maintaining human command can facilitate interaction with air
traffic control
bull Human command could better address emergencies and would
facilitate interactions between manned and unmanned aircraft
bull Social license less problematic if some human command is
maintained
bull Could human command and automated control of the aircraft be
separated functions
Buthellip
bull K-Max accident (2013) in Afghanistan was due to human
communication errors ndash would a similar accident happen in a
manned aircraft
bull UAVs lack the redundancy that make manned aircraft so safe
12
Economic challenges
bull Payload capacity must be sufficient to be economically viable
bull Some labour savings offset by operator costs increased
ground handling
bull Large UCA to compete with converted B-737A-320 (20t
payload)
bull Air freight do not seek direct routes
bull How do UCA fit within the context of air transport
agreements
bull Long range UCA will generate similar yields than manned
aircraft ndash will they have the same economies of scale
bull Limited market may prove difficult to amortize RampD costs
13
The economics of manufacturing and of air cargo will
determine whether UCA
Air Navigation Challenges
All UAVs
bull Safe interaction between UCA ATC and manned aircraft is
essential
bull UCA must be able to acknowledge and respond to ATC
commands in controlled airspace and maintain traffic and terrain
avoidance in uncontrolled airspace
bull UAV-dedicated corridors feasible in some non-congestedremote
airspace
UCArsquos added challenge
bull Operating safely in high-density heavy air traffic environment
14
Getting UCA and ANS to work together is likely the
greatest operational challenge
Legal challenges
bullHow do existing laws apply to UCA
bullDoes a remote operator have the same
legal authority and liability as a pilot in
charge
bullWhat are the certification requirements for
a remote operator
bullUCA development needs to be in step with
regulatory development
15
Regulatory changes require considerable lead-up time
and forward planning Are regulators ready for UCA
Technological challenges
bull The technology to have a UCA already exists ndash
requires fine tuning for mass market commercial
application
bull Human override possible at all times
bull Aircraft must be hacker-proof
bull As UCAs gain in size it will create security-related
concerns (ie can a UCA be weaponized)
bull UCA operator training programs will need to be
developed will skilled labour be an issue What can
we learn from the militaryrsquos experience with UAV
16
The Aircraft Platform
bull UCA can take many forms
ndash Conventional aircraft
ndash Helicopter (K-Max)
ndash Airship (LDTV)
ndash Purpose-design UCA
bull Military technology adapted to civilian use would
significantly lower development costs but make
UCA development dependent on military needs
bull Aircraft would need to be compatible with
existing air navigation requirements and ground
equipment
17
Perspectives for Conventional Aircraft
bull Converting existing manned aircraft into unmanned
aircraft would require mostly avionics changes
bull Main savings derived from labour Savings increases
with stage length when fuel is a relatively smaller
cost factor
bull Could be combined with automated taxiing (ie
Taxibot)
bull Integrates well within existing flight traffic patterns
bull Interfaces well with existing ground equipment
18
Perspectives for helicopters
bull K-Max has demonstrated the feasibility of the concept as
both a small freighter and a waterbomber
bull VTOL ideal for areas with no infrastructure or oil platforms
bull Limited range
bull Limited payload capacity (2-3t) best suited for emergency
transport or military operations (avoiding casualties) but
negates economies of scale Is there a significant civilian
market
bull Helicopters not a major factor in the civilian air cargo
market
19
Perspectives for Airships
bull Airships are targeting similar markets to large
UCA would the answer be unmanned airships
bull Airships fare relatively badly on the Gabrielli-Von
Karman line expanding high energy for low speed
bull Major airship-related issues include the need for
specialized ground crew ballast to compensate
empty loads limited markets limited utilization
20
Lighter Than Air is not without its technical problems Although modern
technology may be able to overcome these problems the ultimate issue
could be the economic feasibility of Lighter Than Air
Interagency Workshop on Lighter than Air Vehicles 1975
Is combining UAV and
airships putting too much risk
on UCA
Perspective for Custom designed aircraft
bull Best aircraft to fully maximize the benefits of
unmanned flight
bull Makes best use of fuselage volume
bull Very high altitudelow speed cruise to minimize fuel
burn
bull Could be designed to operate from gravel runways
snow or VSTOL
bull Potential to leverage military use to amortize
development costs
21
Is the UCA market large enough to off-set aircraft
development costs
Some parting thoughts
bull Since the advent of the jet age civil aviation has been
evolutionary not revolutionary
bull The challenge for civilian UCA is not as much technological as
it is
Economic Are labour savings significant enough Is the model
economically sound from an air cargo and an aircraft manufacturing
perspective
Coordination Enabling UCA to share common airspace with manned
civilian aircraft
Regulatory Ensuring regulations do not impede progress while still
maintaining aviationrsquos highest safety standards
Social license Unmanned aircraft must be perceived as safe by the non-
flying public
bull ITF can help by raising awareness of UCA with member
countries and at the Summit panel on air freight and Ministerrsquos
roundtable on drones and autonomous driving
22
Thank you very much Dank Je
23
2015 Summit on
Transport Trade and Tourism
27 ndash 29 May 2015
Leipzig Germany
http2015internationaltransportforumorg
bull In the Framework of the JTRC (within regular budget)
ndashRound Tables Events for deep discussion of topical issues
(long tradition)
ndashCollaborative Research Projects with active participation
of the member countriesrsquo research institutions
ndashIRTAD and Transport Outlook
bull With additional resources
ndashHorizontal collaboration with OECD directorates
ndashCountry Specific Policy Analysis Projects (quick response)
ndashProjects with direct engagement of companies in the
framework of the CPB ndash Corporate Partnership Board
Main activities on the think-tank component of ITF
The ITF and Unmanned Vehicles
bull Two ITF projects on unmanned transportation
ndash Integrating new technology into the existing regulatory framework
ndash Modelled wide use of automated and shared road vehicles in Lisbon
bull Conclusions find that new technology is highly
distributive forces a rethink of mobility and
regulations
bull Innovators must remain in lock step with regulators
bull Role for ITF Conduct research in emerging
unmanned vehicle issues and inform decision-makers
7
Unmanned transportation Revolutionary
8
Albert Einstein
ATV 2013
TrAAin
DFW 1973
Peoplemover
Disneyland 1967
OrlyVal
Orly 1991
SkyTrain
Vancouver
1985
AGV Rotterdam
1989
Soyuz
1967
Metro Line14
Paris 1998
Autopilot B-777
Autopilot B-707
Mercedes F015
2015
The revolution is not as much the fact that it is unmanned
as the fact technology is increasingly autonomous
Potential applications for UCAs
bull New point-to-point hub bypass services providing
smaller communities with enhanced global
connectivity
bull Service to remote andor inhospitable areas with
limited infrastructure (northern latitudes remote
areas deserts oil platforms archipelagoes)
bull Ad-hoc charter service with limited repositioning
flights high aircraft utilization
bull Low cost alternative for smaller loads to manned
air cargo while maintaining the speed advantage
of air
9
Outlook
bull Boeing expects 2170 new freighters
delivered by 2033 including 962 20t
freighters
bull However air cargo capacity is
increasingly shifting from freighters to
passenger aircraft
bull Air cargo activity growing faster in
express than freight or air mail
bull Is UCA enough of a game changer to
augment overall air cargo or simply take
a share of the market Creation or
substitution Or both
10
Source Boeing WACF (2013)
Regulatory context
bull Unmanned flying is not a new regulatory concern
despite recent attention on drones
bull Recent attention focused on privately operated UAVs
bull Ultimate step in a half century of depopulating of the
flight deck (navigator flight engineer radio
operator)will require strong buy-in from the
regulator
bull May need regulation to hard-wire adherence to no fly
zones (ie regulated electronic geofencing)
11
No aircraft capable of being flown without a pilot shall be flown without a pilot over the territory of a
contracting State without special authorization by that State and in accordance with the terms of such
authorization Each contracting State undertakes to insure that the flight of such aircraft without a pilot in
regions open to civil aircraft shall be so controlled as to obviate danger to civil aircraft
- Chicago Convention 1944
Remotely controlled vs fully autonomousHow much automation for UCA
bull Maintaining human command can facilitate interaction with air
traffic control
bull Human command could better address emergencies and would
facilitate interactions between manned and unmanned aircraft
bull Social license less problematic if some human command is
maintained
bull Could human command and automated control of the aircraft be
separated functions
Buthellip
bull K-Max accident (2013) in Afghanistan was due to human
communication errors ndash would a similar accident happen in a
manned aircraft
bull UAVs lack the redundancy that make manned aircraft so safe
12
Economic challenges
bull Payload capacity must be sufficient to be economically viable
bull Some labour savings offset by operator costs increased
ground handling
bull Large UCA to compete with converted B-737A-320 (20t
payload)
bull Air freight do not seek direct routes
bull How do UCA fit within the context of air transport
agreements
bull Long range UCA will generate similar yields than manned
aircraft ndash will they have the same economies of scale
bull Limited market may prove difficult to amortize RampD costs
13
The economics of manufacturing and of air cargo will
determine whether UCA
Air Navigation Challenges
All UAVs
bull Safe interaction between UCA ATC and manned aircraft is
essential
bull UCA must be able to acknowledge and respond to ATC
commands in controlled airspace and maintain traffic and terrain
avoidance in uncontrolled airspace
bull UAV-dedicated corridors feasible in some non-congestedremote
airspace
UCArsquos added challenge
bull Operating safely in high-density heavy air traffic environment
14
Getting UCA and ANS to work together is likely the
greatest operational challenge
Legal challenges
bullHow do existing laws apply to UCA
bullDoes a remote operator have the same
legal authority and liability as a pilot in
charge
bullWhat are the certification requirements for
a remote operator
bullUCA development needs to be in step with
regulatory development
15
Regulatory changes require considerable lead-up time
and forward planning Are regulators ready for UCA
Technological challenges
bull The technology to have a UCA already exists ndash
requires fine tuning for mass market commercial
application
bull Human override possible at all times
bull Aircraft must be hacker-proof
bull As UCAs gain in size it will create security-related
concerns (ie can a UCA be weaponized)
bull UCA operator training programs will need to be
developed will skilled labour be an issue What can
we learn from the militaryrsquos experience with UAV
16
The Aircraft Platform
bull UCA can take many forms
ndash Conventional aircraft
ndash Helicopter (K-Max)
ndash Airship (LDTV)
ndash Purpose-design UCA
bull Military technology adapted to civilian use would
significantly lower development costs but make
UCA development dependent on military needs
bull Aircraft would need to be compatible with
existing air navigation requirements and ground
equipment
17
Perspectives for Conventional Aircraft
bull Converting existing manned aircraft into unmanned
aircraft would require mostly avionics changes
bull Main savings derived from labour Savings increases
with stage length when fuel is a relatively smaller
cost factor
bull Could be combined with automated taxiing (ie
Taxibot)
bull Integrates well within existing flight traffic patterns
bull Interfaces well with existing ground equipment
18
Perspectives for helicopters
bull K-Max has demonstrated the feasibility of the concept as
both a small freighter and a waterbomber
bull VTOL ideal for areas with no infrastructure or oil platforms
bull Limited range
bull Limited payload capacity (2-3t) best suited for emergency
transport or military operations (avoiding casualties) but
negates economies of scale Is there a significant civilian
market
bull Helicopters not a major factor in the civilian air cargo
market
19
Perspectives for Airships
bull Airships are targeting similar markets to large
UCA would the answer be unmanned airships
bull Airships fare relatively badly on the Gabrielli-Von
Karman line expanding high energy for low speed
bull Major airship-related issues include the need for
specialized ground crew ballast to compensate
empty loads limited markets limited utilization
20
Lighter Than Air is not without its technical problems Although modern
technology may be able to overcome these problems the ultimate issue
could be the economic feasibility of Lighter Than Air
Interagency Workshop on Lighter than Air Vehicles 1975
Is combining UAV and
airships putting too much risk
on UCA
Perspective for Custom designed aircraft
bull Best aircraft to fully maximize the benefits of
unmanned flight
bull Makes best use of fuselage volume
bull Very high altitudelow speed cruise to minimize fuel
burn
bull Could be designed to operate from gravel runways
snow or VSTOL
bull Potential to leverage military use to amortize
development costs
21
Is the UCA market large enough to off-set aircraft
development costs
Some parting thoughts
bull Since the advent of the jet age civil aviation has been
evolutionary not revolutionary
bull The challenge for civilian UCA is not as much technological as
it is
Economic Are labour savings significant enough Is the model
economically sound from an air cargo and an aircraft manufacturing
perspective
Coordination Enabling UCA to share common airspace with manned
civilian aircraft
Regulatory Ensuring regulations do not impede progress while still
maintaining aviationrsquos highest safety standards
Social license Unmanned aircraft must be perceived as safe by the non-
flying public
bull ITF can help by raising awareness of UCA with member
countries and at the Summit panel on air freight and Ministerrsquos
roundtable on drones and autonomous driving
22
Thank you very much Dank Je
23
2015 Summit on
Transport Trade and Tourism
27 ndash 29 May 2015
Leipzig Germany
http2015internationaltransportforumorg
The ITF and Unmanned Vehicles
bull Two ITF projects on unmanned transportation
ndash Integrating new technology into the existing regulatory framework
ndash Modelled wide use of automated and shared road vehicles in Lisbon
bull Conclusions find that new technology is highly
distributive forces a rethink of mobility and
regulations
bull Innovators must remain in lock step with regulators
bull Role for ITF Conduct research in emerging
unmanned vehicle issues and inform decision-makers
7
Unmanned transportation Revolutionary
8
Albert Einstein
ATV 2013
TrAAin
DFW 1973
Peoplemover
Disneyland 1967
OrlyVal
Orly 1991
SkyTrain
Vancouver
1985
AGV Rotterdam
1989
Soyuz
1967
Metro Line14
Paris 1998
Autopilot B-777
Autopilot B-707
Mercedes F015
2015
The revolution is not as much the fact that it is unmanned
as the fact technology is increasingly autonomous
Potential applications for UCAs
bull New point-to-point hub bypass services providing
smaller communities with enhanced global
connectivity
bull Service to remote andor inhospitable areas with
limited infrastructure (northern latitudes remote
areas deserts oil platforms archipelagoes)
bull Ad-hoc charter service with limited repositioning
flights high aircraft utilization
bull Low cost alternative for smaller loads to manned
air cargo while maintaining the speed advantage
of air
9
Outlook
bull Boeing expects 2170 new freighters
delivered by 2033 including 962 20t
freighters
bull However air cargo capacity is
increasingly shifting from freighters to
passenger aircraft
bull Air cargo activity growing faster in
express than freight or air mail
bull Is UCA enough of a game changer to
augment overall air cargo or simply take
a share of the market Creation or
substitution Or both
10
Source Boeing WACF (2013)
Regulatory context
bull Unmanned flying is not a new regulatory concern
despite recent attention on drones
bull Recent attention focused on privately operated UAVs
bull Ultimate step in a half century of depopulating of the
flight deck (navigator flight engineer radio
operator)will require strong buy-in from the
regulator
bull May need regulation to hard-wire adherence to no fly
zones (ie regulated electronic geofencing)
11
No aircraft capable of being flown without a pilot shall be flown without a pilot over the territory of a
contracting State without special authorization by that State and in accordance with the terms of such
authorization Each contracting State undertakes to insure that the flight of such aircraft without a pilot in
regions open to civil aircraft shall be so controlled as to obviate danger to civil aircraft
- Chicago Convention 1944
Remotely controlled vs fully autonomousHow much automation for UCA
bull Maintaining human command can facilitate interaction with air
traffic control
bull Human command could better address emergencies and would
facilitate interactions between manned and unmanned aircraft
bull Social license less problematic if some human command is
maintained
bull Could human command and automated control of the aircraft be
separated functions
Buthellip
bull K-Max accident (2013) in Afghanistan was due to human
communication errors ndash would a similar accident happen in a
manned aircraft
bull UAVs lack the redundancy that make manned aircraft so safe
12
Economic challenges
bull Payload capacity must be sufficient to be economically viable
bull Some labour savings offset by operator costs increased
ground handling
bull Large UCA to compete with converted B-737A-320 (20t
payload)
bull Air freight do not seek direct routes
bull How do UCA fit within the context of air transport
agreements
bull Long range UCA will generate similar yields than manned
aircraft ndash will they have the same economies of scale
bull Limited market may prove difficult to amortize RampD costs
13
The economics of manufacturing and of air cargo will
determine whether UCA
Air Navigation Challenges
All UAVs
bull Safe interaction between UCA ATC and manned aircraft is
essential
bull UCA must be able to acknowledge and respond to ATC
commands in controlled airspace and maintain traffic and terrain
avoidance in uncontrolled airspace
bull UAV-dedicated corridors feasible in some non-congestedremote
airspace
UCArsquos added challenge
bull Operating safely in high-density heavy air traffic environment
14
Getting UCA and ANS to work together is likely the
greatest operational challenge
Legal challenges
bullHow do existing laws apply to UCA
bullDoes a remote operator have the same
legal authority and liability as a pilot in
charge
bullWhat are the certification requirements for
a remote operator
bullUCA development needs to be in step with
regulatory development
15
Regulatory changes require considerable lead-up time
and forward planning Are regulators ready for UCA
Technological challenges
bull The technology to have a UCA already exists ndash
requires fine tuning for mass market commercial
application
bull Human override possible at all times
bull Aircraft must be hacker-proof
bull As UCAs gain in size it will create security-related
concerns (ie can a UCA be weaponized)
bull UCA operator training programs will need to be
developed will skilled labour be an issue What can
we learn from the militaryrsquos experience with UAV
16
The Aircraft Platform
bull UCA can take many forms
ndash Conventional aircraft
ndash Helicopter (K-Max)
ndash Airship (LDTV)
ndash Purpose-design UCA
bull Military technology adapted to civilian use would
significantly lower development costs but make
UCA development dependent on military needs
bull Aircraft would need to be compatible with
existing air navigation requirements and ground
equipment
17
Perspectives for Conventional Aircraft
bull Converting existing manned aircraft into unmanned
aircraft would require mostly avionics changes
bull Main savings derived from labour Savings increases
with stage length when fuel is a relatively smaller
cost factor
bull Could be combined with automated taxiing (ie
Taxibot)
bull Integrates well within existing flight traffic patterns
bull Interfaces well with existing ground equipment
18
Perspectives for helicopters
bull K-Max has demonstrated the feasibility of the concept as
both a small freighter and a waterbomber
bull VTOL ideal for areas with no infrastructure or oil platforms
bull Limited range
bull Limited payload capacity (2-3t) best suited for emergency
transport or military operations (avoiding casualties) but
negates economies of scale Is there a significant civilian
market
bull Helicopters not a major factor in the civilian air cargo
market
19
Perspectives for Airships
bull Airships are targeting similar markets to large
UCA would the answer be unmanned airships
bull Airships fare relatively badly on the Gabrielli-Von
Karman line expanding high energy for low speed
bull Major airship-related issues include the need for
specialized ground crew ballast to compensate
empty loads limited markets limited utilization
20
Lighter Than Air is not without its technical problems Although modern
technology may be able to overcome these problems the ultimate issue
could be the economic feasibility of Lighter Than Air
Interagency Workshop on Lighter than Air Vehicles 1975
Is combining UAV and
airships putting too much risk
on UCA
Perspective for Custom designed aircraft
bull Best aircraft to fully maximize the benefits of
unmanned flight
bull Makes best use of fuselage volume
bull Very high altitudelow speed cruise to minimize fuel
burn
bull Could be designed to operate from gravel runways
snow or VSTOL
bull Potential to leverage military use to amortize
development costs
21
Is the UCA market large enough to off-set aircraft
development costs
Some parting thoughts
bull Since the advent of the jet age civil aviation has been
evolutionary not revolutionary
bull The challenge for civilian UCA is not as much technological as
it is
Economic Are labour savings significant enough Is the model
economically sound from an air cargo and an aircraft manufacturing
perspective
Coordination Enabling UCA to share common airspace with manned
civilian aircraft
Regulatory Ensuring regulations do not impede progress while still
maintaining aviationrsquos highest safety standards
Social license Unmanned aircraft must be perceived as safe by the non-
flying public
bull ITF can help by raising awareness of UCA with member
countries and at the Summit panel on air freight and Ministerrsquos
roundtable on drones and autonomous driving
22
Thank you very much Dank Je
23
2015 Summit on
Transport Trade and Tourism
27 ndash 29 May 2015
Leipzig Germany
http2015internationaltransportforumorg
Unmanned transportation Revolutionary
8
Albert Einstein
ATV 2013
TrAAin
DFW 1973
Peoplemover
Disneyland 1967
OrlyVal
Orly 1991
SkyTrain
Vancouver
1985
AGV Rotterdam
1989
Soyuz
1967
Metro Line14
Paris 1998
Autopilot B-777
Autopilot B-707
Mercedes F015
2015
The revolution is not as much the fact that it is unmanned
as the fact technology is increasingly autonomous
Potential applications for UCAs
bull New point-to-point hub bypass services providing
smaller communities with enhanced global
connectivity
bull Service to remote andor inhospitable areas with
limited infrastructure (northern latitudes remote
areas deserts oil platforms archipelagoes)
bull Ad-hoc charter service with limited repositioning
flights high aircraft utilization
bull Low cost alternative for smaller loads to manned
air cargo while maintaining the speed advantage
of air
9
Outlook
bull Boeing expects 2170 new freighters
delivered by 2033 including 962 20t
freighters
bull However air cargo capacity is
increasingly shifting from freighters to
passenger aircraft
bull Air cargo activity growing faster in
express than freight or air mail
bull Is UCA enough of a game changer to
augment overall air cargo or simply take
a share of the market Creation or
substitution Or both
10
Source Boeing WACF (2013)
Regulatory context
bull Unmanned flying is not a new regulatory concern
despite recent attention on drones
bull Recent attention focused on privately operated UAVs
bull Ultimate step in a half century of depopulating of the
flight deck (navigator flight engineer radio
operator)will require strong buy-in from the
regulator
bull May need regulation to hard-wire adherence to no fly
zones (ie regulated electronic geofencing)
11
No aircraft capable of being flown without a pilot shall be flown without a pilot over the territory of a
contracting State without special authorization by that State and in accordance with the terms of such
authorization Each contracting State undertakes to insure that the flight of such aircraft without a pilot in
regions open to civil aircraft shall be so controlled as to obviate danger to civil aircraft
- Chicago Convention 1944
Remotely controlled vs fully autonomousHow much automation for UCA
bull Maintaining human command can facilitate interaction with air
traffic control
bull Human command could better address emergencies and would
facilitate interactions between manned and unmanned aircraft
bull Social license less problematic if some human command is
maintained
bull Could human command and automated control of the aircraft be
separated functions
Buthellip
bull K-Max accident (2013) in Afghanistan was due to human
communication errors ndash would a similar accident happen in a
manned aircraft
bull UAVs lack the redundancy that make manned aircraft so safe
12
Economic challenges
bull Payload capacity must be sufficient to be economically viable
bull Some labour savings offset by operator costs increased
ground handling
bull Large UCA to compete with converted B-737A-320 (20t
payload)
bull Air freight do not seek direct routes
bull How do UCA fit within the context of air transport
agreements
bull Long range UCA will generate similar yields than manned
aircraft ndash will they have the same economies of scale
bull Limited market may prove difficult to amortize RampD costs
13
The economics of manufacturing and of air cargo will
determine whether UCA
Air Navigation Challenges
All UAVs
bull Safe interaction between UCA ATC and manned aircraft is
essential
bull UCA must be able to acknowledge and respond to ATC
commands in controlled airspace and maintain traffic and terrain
avoidance in uncontrolled airspace
bull UAV-dedicated corridors feasible in some non-congestedremote
airspace
UCArsquos added challenge
bull Operating safely in high-density heavy air traffic environment
14
Getting UCA and ANS to work together is likely the
greatest operational challenge
Legal challenges
bullHow do existing laws apply to UCA
bullDoes a remote operator have the same
legal authority and liability as a pilot in
charge
bullWhat are the certification requirements for
a remote operator
bullUCA development needs to be in step with
regulatory development
15
Regulatory changes require considerable lead-up time
and forward planning Are regulators ready for UCA
Technological challenges
bull The technology to have a UCA already exists ndash
requires fine tuning for mass market commercial
application
bull Human override possible at all times
bull Aircraft must be hacker-proof
bull As UCAs gain in size it will create security-related
concerns (ie can a UCA be weaponized)
bull UCA operator training programs will need to be
developed will skilled labour be an issue What can
we learn from the militaryrsquos experience with UAV
16
The Aircraft Platform
bull UCA can take many forms
ndash Conventional aircraft
ndash Helicopter (K-Max)
ndash Airship (LDTV)
ndash Purpose-design UCA
bull Military technology adapted to civilian use would
significantly lower development costs but make
UCA development dependent on military needs
bull Aircraft would need to be compatible with
existing air navigation requirements and ground
equipment
17
Perspectives for Conventional Aircraft
bull Converting existing manned aircraft into unmanned
aircraft would require mostly avionics changes
bull Main savings derived from labour Savings increases
with stage length when fuel is a relatively smaller
cost factor
bull Could be combined with automated taxiing (ie
Taxibot)
bull Integrates well within existing flight traffic patterns
bull Interfaces well with existing ground equipment
18
Perspectives for helicopters
bull K-Max has demonstrated the feasibility of the concept as
both a small freighter and a waterbomber
bull VTOL ideal for areas with no infrastructure or oil platforms
bull Limited range
bull Limited payload capacity (2-3t) best suited for emergency
transport or military operations (avoiding casualties) but
negates economies of scale Is there a significant civilian
market
bull Helicopters not a major factor in the civilian air cargo
market
19
Perspectives for Airships
bull Airships are targeting similar markets to large
UCA would the answer be unmanned airships
bull Airships fare relatively badly on the Gabrielli-Von
Karman line expanding high energy for low speed
bull Major airship-related issues include the need for
specialized ground crew ballast to compensate
empty loads limited markets limited utilization
20
Lighter Than Air is not without its technical problems Although modern
technology may be able to overcome these problems the ultimate issue
could be the economic feasibility of Lighter Than Air
Interagency Workshop on Lighter than Air Vehicles 1975
Is combining UAV and
airships putting too much risk
on UCA
Perspective for Custom designed aircraft
bull Best aircraft to fully maximize the benefits of
unmanned flight
bull Makes best use of fuselage volume
bull Very high altitudelow speed cruise to minimize fuel
burn
bull Could be designed to operate from gravel runways
snow or VSTOL
bull Potential to leverage military use to amortize
development costs
21
Is the UCA market large enough to off-set aircraft
development costs
Some parting thoughts
bull Since the advent of the jet age civil aviation has been
evolutionary not revolutionary
bull The challenge for civilian UCA is not as much technological as
it is
Economic Are labour savings significant enough Is the model
economically sound from an air cargo and an aircraft manufacturing
perspective
Coordination Enabling UCA to share common airspace with manned
civilian aircraft
Regulatory Ensuring regulations do not impede progress while still
maintaining aviationrsquos highest safety standards
Social license Unmanned aircraft must be perceived as safe by the non-
flying public
bull ITF can help by raising awareness of UCA with member
countries and at the Summit panel on air freight and Ministerrsquos
roundtable on drones and autonomous driving
22
Thank you very much Dank Je
23
2015 Summit on
Transport Trade and Tourism
27 ndash 29 May 2015
Leipzig Germany
http2015internationaltransportforumorg
Potential applications for UCAs
bull New point-to-point hub bypass services providing
smaller communities with enhanced global
connectivity
bull Service to remote andor inhospitable areas with
limited infrastructure (northern latitudes remote
areas deserts oil platforms archipelagoes)
bull Ad-hoc charter service with limited repositioning
flights high aircraft utilization
bull Low cost alternative for smaller loads to manned
air cargo while maintaining the speed advantage
of air
9
Outlook
bull Boeing expects 2170 new freighters
delivered by 2033 including 962 20t
freighters
bull However air cargo capacity is
increasingly shifting from freighters to
passenger aircraft
bull Air cargo activity growing faster in
express than freight or air mail
bull Is UCA enough of a game changer to
augment overall air cargo or simply take
a share of the market Creation or
substitution Or both
10
Source Boeing WACF (2013)
Regulatory context
bull Unmanned flying is not a new regulatory concern
despite recent attention on drones
bull Recent attention focused on privately operated UAVs
bull Ultimate step in a half century of depopulating of the
flight deck (navigator flight engineer radio
operator)will require strong buy-in from the
regulator
bull May need regulation to hard-wire adherence to no fly
zones (ie regulated electronic geofencing)
11
No aircraft capable of being flown without a pilot shall be flown without a pilot over the territory of a
contracting State without special authorization by that State and in accordance with the terms of such
authorization Each contracting State undertakes to insure that the flight of such aircraft without a pilot in
regions open to civil aircraft shall be so controlled as to obviate danger to civil aircraft
- Chicago Convention 1944
Remotely controlled vs fully autonomousHow much automation for UCA
bull Maintaining human command can facilitate interaction with air
traffic control
bull Human command could better address emergencies and would
facilitate interactions between manned and unmanned aircraft
bull Social license less problematic if some human command is
maintained
bull Could human command and automated control of the aircraft be
separated functions
Buthellip
bull K-Max accident (2013) in Afghanistan was due to human
communication errors ndash would a similar accident happen in a
manned aircraft
bull UAVs lack the redundancy that make manned aircraft so safe
12
Economic challenges
bull Payload capacity must be sufficient to be economically viable
bull Some labour savings offset by operator costs increased
ground handling
bull Large UCA to compete with converted B-737A-320 (20t
payload)
bull Air freight do not seek direct routes
bull How do UCA fit within the context of air transport
agreements
bull Long range UCA will generate similar yields than manned
aircraft ndash will they have the same economies of scale
bull Limited market may prove difficult to amortize RampD costs
13
The economics of manufacturing and of air cargo will
determine whether UCA
Air Navigation Challenges
All UAVs
bull Safe interaction between UCA ATC and manned aircraft is
essential
bull UCA must be able to acknowledge and respond to ATC
commands in controlled airspace and maintain traffic and terrain
avoidance in uncontrolled airspace
bull UAV-dedicated corridors feasible in some non-congestedremote
airspace
UCArsquos added challenge
bull Operating safely in high-density heavy air traffic environment
14
Getting UCA and ANS to work together is likely the
greatest operational challenge
Legal challenges
bullHow do existing laws apply to UCA
bullDoes a remote operator have the same
legal authority and liability as a pilot in
charge
bullWhat are the certification requirements for
a remote operator
bullUCA development needs to be in step with
regulatory development
15
Regulatory changes require considerable lead-up time
and forward planning Are regulators ready for UCA
Technological challenges
bull The technology to have a UCA already exists ndash
requires fine tuning for mass market commercial
application
bull Human override possible at all times
bull Aircraft must be hacker-proof
bull As UCAs gain in size it will create security-related
concerns (ie can a UCA be weaponized)
bull UCA operator training programs will need to be
developed will skilled labour be an issue What can
we learn from the militaryrsquos experience with UAV
16
The Aircraft Platform
bull UCA can take many forms
ndash Conventional aircraft
ndash Helicopter (K-Max)
ndash Airship (LDTV)
ndash Purpose-design UCA
bull Military technology adapted to civilian use would
significantly lower development costs but make
UCA development dependent on military needs
bull Aircraft would need to be compatible with
existing air navigation requirements and ground
equipment
17
Perspectives for Conventional Aircraft
bull Converting existing manned aircraft into unmanned
aircraft would require mostly avionics changes
bull Main savings derived from labour Savings increases
with stage length when fuel is a relatively smaller
cost factor
bull Could be combined with automated taxiing (ie
Taxibot)
bull Integrates well within existing flight traffic patterns
bull Interfaces well with existing ground equipment
18
Perspectives for helicopters
bull K-Max has demonstrated the feasibility of the concept as
both a small freighter and a waterbomber
bull VTOL ideal for areas with no infrastructure or oil platforms
bull Limited range
bull Limited payload capacity (2-3t) best suited for emergency
transport or military operations (avoiding casualties) but
negates economies of scale Is there a significant civilian
market
bull Helicopters not a major factor in the civilian air cargo
market
19
Perspectives for Airships
bull Airships are targeting similar markets to large
UCA would the answer be unmanned airships
bull Airships fare relatively badly on the Gabrielli-Von
Karman line expanding high energy for low speed
bull Major airship-related issues include the need for
specialized ground crew ballast to compensate
empty loads limited markets limited utilization
20
Lighter Than Air is not without its technical problems Although modern
technology may be able to overcome these problems the ultimate issue
could be the economic feasibility of Lighter Than Air
Interagency Workshop on Lighter than Air Vehicles 1975
Is combining UAV and
airships putting too much risk
on UCA
Perspective for Custom designed aircraft
bull Best aircraft to fully maximize the benefits of
unmanned flight
bull Makes best use of fuselage volume
bull Very high altitudelow speed cruise to minimize fuel
burn
bull Could be designed to operate from gravel runways
snow or VSTOL
bull Potential to leverage military use to amortize
development costs
21
Is the UCA market large enough to off-set aircraft
development costs
Some parting thoughts
bull Since the advent of the jet age civil aviation has been
evolutionary not revolutionary
bull The challenge for civilian UCA is not as much technological as
it is
Economic Are labour savings significant enough Is the model
economically sound from an air cargo and an aircraft manufacturing
perspective
Coordination Enabling UCA to share common airspace with manned
civilian aircraft
Regulatory Ensuring regulations do not impede progress while still
maintaining aviationrsquos highest safety standards
Social license Unmanned aircraft must be perceived as safe by the non-
flying public
bull ITF can help by raising awareness of UCA with member
countries and at the Summit panel on air freight and Ministerrsquos
roundtable on drones and autonomous driving
22
Thank you very much Dank Je
23
2015 Summit on
Transport Trade and Tourism
27 ndash 29 May 2015
Leipzig Germany
http2015internationaltransportforumorg
Outlook
bull Boeing expects 2170 new freighters
delivered by 2033 including 962 20t
freighters
bull However air cargo capacity is
increasingly shifting from freighters to
passenger aircraft
bull Air cargo activity growing faster in
express than freight or air mail
bull Is UCA enough of a game changer to
augment overall air cargo or simply take
a share of the market Creation or
substitution Or both
10
Source Boeing WACF (2013)
Regulatory context
bull Unmanned flying is not a new regulatory concern
despite recent attention on drones
bull Recent attention focused on privately operated UAVs
bull Ultimate step in a half century of depopulating of the
flight deck (navigator flight engineer radio
operator)will require strong buy-in from the
regulator
bull May need regulation to hard-wire adherence to no fly
zones (ie regulated electronic geofencing)
11
No aircraft capable of being flown without a pilot shall be flown without a pilot over the territory of a
contracting State without special authorization by that State and in accordance with the terms of such
authorization Each contracting State undertakes to insure that the flight of such aircraft without a pilot in
regions open to civil aircraft shall be so controlled as to obviate danger to civil aircraft
- Chicago Convention 1944
Remotely controlled vs fully autonomousHow much automation for UCA
bull Maintaining human command can facilitate interaction with air
traffic control
bull Human command could better address emergencies and would
facilitate interactions between manned and unmanned aircraft
bull Social license less problematic if some human command is
maintained
bull Could human command and automated control of the aircraft be
separated functions
Buthellip
bull K-Max accident (2013) in Afghanistan was due to human
communication errors ndash would a similar accident happen in a
manned aircraft
bull UAVs lack the redundancy that make manned aircraft so safe
12
Economic challenges
bull Payload capacity must be sufficient to be economically viable
bull Some labour savings offset by operator costs increased
ground handling
bull Large UCA to compete with converted B-737A-320 (20t
payload)
bull Air freight do not seek direct routes
bull How do UCA fit within the context of air transport
agreements
bull Long range UCA will generate similar yields than manned
aircraft ndash will they have the same economies of scale
bull Limited market may prove difficult to amortize RampD costs
13
The economics of manufacturing and of air cargo will
determine whether UCA
Air Navigation Challenges
All UAVs
bull Safe interaction between UCA ATC and manned aircraft is
essential
bull UCA must be able to acknowledge and respond to ATC
commands in controlled airspace and maintain traffic and terrain
avoidance in uncontrolled airspace
bull UAV-dedicated corridors feasible in some non-congestedremote
airspace
UCArsquos added challenge
bull Operating safely in high-density heavy air traffic environment
14
Getting UCA and ANS to work together is likely the
greatest operational challenge
Legal challenges
bullHow do existing laws apply to UCA
bullDoes a remote operator have the same
legal authority and liability as a pilot in
charge
bullWhat are the certification requirements for
a remote operator
bullUCA development needs to be in step with
regulatory development
15
Regulatory changes require considerable lead-up time
and forward planning Are regulators ready for UCA
Technological challenges
bull The technology to have a UCA already exists ndash
requires fine tuning for mass market commercial
application
bull Human override possible at all times
bull Aircraft must be hacker-proof
bull As UCAs gain in size it will create security-related
concerns (ie can a UCA be weaponized)
bull UCA operator training programs will need to be
developed will skilled labour be an issue What can
we learn from the militaryrsquos experience with UAV
16
The Aircraft Platform
bull UCA can take many forms
ndash Conventional aircraft
ndash Helicopter (K-Max)
ndash Airship (LDTV)
ndash Purpose-design UCA
bull Military technology adapted to civilian use would
significantly lower development costs but make
UCA development dependent on military needs
bull Aircraft would need to be compatible with
existing air navigation requirements and ground
equipment
17
Perspectives for Conventional Aircraft
bull Converting existing manned aircraft into unmanned
aircraft would require mostly avionics changes
bull Main savings derived from labour Savings increases
with stage length when fuel is a relatively smaller
cost factor
bull Could be combined with automated taxiing (ie
Taxibot)
bull Integrates well within existing flight traffic patterns
bull Interfaces well with existing ground equipment
18
Perspectives for helicopters
bull K-Max has demonstrated the feasibility of the concept as
both a small freighter and a waterbomber
bull VTOL ideal for areas with no infrastructure or oil platforms
bull Limited range
bull Limited payload capacity (2-3t) best suited for emergency
transport or military operations (avoiding casualties) but
negates economies of scale Is there a significant civilian
market
bull Helicopters not a major factor in the civilian air cargo
market
19
Perspectives for Airships
bull Airships are targeting similar markets to large
UCA would the answer be unmanned airships
bull Airships fare relatively badly on the Gabrielli-Von
Karman line expanding high energy for low speed
bull Major airship-related issues include the need for
specialized ground crew ballast to compensate
empty loads limited markets limited utilization
20
Lighter Than Air is not without its technical problems Although modern
technology may be able to overcome these problems the ultimate issue
could be the economic feasibility of Lighter Than Air
Interagency Workshop on Lighter than Air Vehicles 1975
Is combining UAV and
airships putting too much risk
on UCA
Perspective for Custom designed aircraft
bull Best aircraft to fully maximize the benefits of
unmanned flight
bull Makes best use of fuselage volume
bull Very high altitudelow speed cruise to minimize fuel
burn
bull Could be designed to operate from gravel runways
snow or VSTOL
bull Potential to leverage military use to amortize
development costs
21
Is the UCA market large enough to off-set aircraft
development costs
Some parting thoughts
bull Since the advent of the jet age civil aviation has been
evolutionary not revolutionary
bull The challenge for civilian UCA is not as much technological as
it is
Economic Are labour savings significant enough Is the model
economically sound from an air cargo and an aircraft manufacturing
perspective
Coordination Enabling UCA to share common airspace with manned
civilian aircraft
Regulatory Ensuring regulations do not impede progress while still
maintaining aviationrsquos highest safety standards
Social license Unmanned aircraft must be perceived as safe by the non-
flying public
bull ITF can help by raising awareness of UCA with member
countries and at the Summit panel on air freight and Ministerrsquos
roundtable on drones and autonomous driving
22
Thank you very much Dank Je
23
2015 Summit on
Transport Trade and Tourism
27 ndash 29 May 2015
Leipzig Germany
http2015internationaltransportforumorg
Regulatory context
bull Unmanned flying is not a new regulatory concern
despite recent attention on drones
bull Recent attention focused on privately operated UAVs
bull Ultimate step in a half century of depopulating of the
flight deck (navigator flight engineer radio
operator)will require strong buy-in from the
regulator
bull May need regulation to hard-wire adherence to no fly
zones (ie regulated electronic geofencing)
11
No aircraft capable of being flown without a pilot shall be flown without a pilot over the territory of a
contracting State without special authorization by that State and in accordance with the terms of such
authorization Each contracting State undertakes to insure that the flight of such aircraft without a pilot in
regions open to civil aircraft shall be so controlled as to obviate danger to civil aircraft
- Chicago Convention 1944
Remotely controlled vs fully autonomousHow much automation for UCA
bull Maintaining human command can facilitate interaction with air
traffic control
bull Human command could better address emergencies and would
facilitate interactions between manned and unmanned aircraft
bull Social license less problematic if some human command is
maintained
bull Could human command and automated control of the aircraft be
separated functions
Buthellip
bull K-Max accident (2013) in Afghanistan was due to human
communication errors ndash would a similar accident happen in a
manned aircraft
bull UAVs lack the redundancy that make manned aircraft so safe
12
Economic challenges
bull Payload capacity must be sufficient to be economically viable
bull Some labour savings offset by operator costs increased
ground handling
bull Large UCA to compete with converted B-737A-320 (20t
payload)
bull Air freight do not seek direct routes
bull How do UCA fit within the context of air transport
agreements
bull Long range UCA will generate similar yields than manned
aircraft ndash will they have the same economies of scale
bull Limited market may prove difficult to amortize RampD costs
13
The economics of manufacturing and of air cargo will
determine whether UCA
Air Navigation Challenges
All UAVs
bull Safe interaction between UCA ATC and manned aircraft is
essential
bull UCA must be able to acknowledge and respond to ATC
commands in controlled airspace and maintain traffic and terrain
avoidance in uncontrolled airspace
bull UAV-dedicated corridors feasible in some non-congestedremote
airspace
UCArsquos added challenge
bull Operating safely in high-density heavy air traffic environment
14
Getting UCA and ANS to work together is likely the
greatest operational challenge
Legal challenges
bullHow do existing laws apply to UCA
bullDoes a remote operator have the same
legal authority and liability as a pilot in
charge
bullWhat are the certification requirements for
a remote operator
bullUCA development needs to be in step with
regulatory development
15
Regulatory changes require considerable lead-up time
and forward planning Are regulators ready for UCA
Technological challenges
bull The technology to have a UCA already exists ndash
requires fine tuning for mass market commercial
application
bull Human override possible at all times
bull Aircraft must be hacker-proof
bull As UCAs gain in size it will create security-related
concerns (ie can a UCA be weaponized)
bull UCA operator training programs will need to be
developed will skilled labour be an issue What can
we learn from the militaryrsquos experience with UAV
16
The Aircraft Platform
bull UCA can take many forms
ndash Conventional aircraft
ndash Helicopter (K-Max)
ndash Airship (LDTV)
ndash Purpose-design UCA
bull Military technology adapted to civilian use would
significantly lower development costs but make
UCA development dependent on military needs
bull Aircraft would need to be compatible with
existing air navigation requirements and ground
equipment
17
Perspectives for Conventional Aircraft
bull Converting existing manned aircraft into unmanned
aircraft would require mostly avionics changes
bull Main savings derived from labour Savings increases
with stage length when fuel is a relatively smaller
cost factor
bull Could be combined with automated taxiing (ie
Taxibot)
bull Integrates well within existing flight traffic patterns
bull Interfaces well with existing ground equipment
18
Perspectives for helicopters
bull K-Max has demonstrated the feasibility of the concept as
both a small freighter and a waterbomber
bull VTOL ideal for areas with no infrastructure or oil platforms
bull Limited range
bull Limited payload capacity (2-3t) best suited for emergency
transport or military operations (avoiding casualties) but
negates economies of scale Is there a significant civilian
market
bull Helicopters not a major factor in the civilian air cargo
market
19
Perspectives for Airships
bull Airships are targeting similar markets to large
UCA would the answer be unmanned airships
bull Airships fare relatively badly on the Gabrielli-Von
Karman line expanding high energy for low speed
bull Major airship-related issues include the need for
specialized ground crew ballast to compensate
empty loads limited markets limited utilization
20
Lighter Than Air is not without its technical problems Although modern
technology may be able to overcome these problems the ultimate issue
could be the economic feasibility of Lighter Than Air
Interagency Workshop on Lighter than Air Vehicles 1975
Is combining UAV and
airships putting too much risk
on UCA
Perspective for Custom designed aircraft
bull Best aircraft to fully maximize the benefits of
unmanned flight
bull Makes best use of fuselage volume
bull Very high altitudelow speed cruise to minimize fuel
burn
bull Could be designed to operate from gravel runways
snow or VSTOL
bull Potential to leverage military use to amortize
development costs
21
Is the UCA market large enough to off-set aircraft
development costs
Some parting thoughts
bull Since the advent of the jet age civil aviation has been
evolutionary not revolutionary
bull The challenge for civilian UCA is not as much technological as
it is
Economic Are labour savings significant enough Is the model
economically sound from an air cargo and an aircraft manufacturing
perspective
Coordination Enabling UCA to share common airspace with manned
civilian aircraft
Regulatory Ensuring regulations do not impede progress while still
maintaining aviationrsquos highest safety standards
Social license Unmanned aircraft must be perceived as safe by the non-
flying public
bull ITF can help by raising awareness of UCA with member
countries and at the Summit panel on air freight and Ministerrsquos
roundtable on drones and autonomous driving
22
Thank you very much Dank Je
23
2015 Summit on
Transport Trade and Tourism
27 ndash 29 May 2015
Leipzig Germany
http2015internationaltransportforumorg
Remotely controlled vs fully autonomousHow much automation for UCA
bull Maintaining human command can facilitate interaction with air
traffic control
bull Human command could better address emergencies and would
facilitate interactions between manned and unmanned aircraft
bull Social license less problematic if some human command is
maintained
bull Could human command and automated control of the aircraft be
separated functions
Buthellip
bull K-Max accident (2013) in Afghanistan was due to human
communication errors ndash would a similar accident happen in a
manned aircraft
bull UAVs lack the redundancy that make manned aircraft so safe
12
Economic challenges
bull Payload capacity must be sufficient to be economically viable
bull Some labour savings offset by operator costs increased
ground handling
bull Large UCA to compete with converted B-737A-320 (20t
payload)
bull Air freight do not seek direct routes
bull How do UCA fit within the context of air transport
agreements
bull Long range UCA will generate similar yields than manned
aircraft ndash will they have the same economies of scale
bull Limited market may prove difficult to amortize RampD costs
13
The economics of manufacturing and of air cargo will
determine whether UCA
Air Navigation Challenges
All UAVs
bull Safe interaction between UCA ATC and manned aircraft is
essential
bull UCA must be able to acknowledge and respond to ATC
commands in controlled airspace and maintain traffic and terrain
avoidance in uncontrolled airspace
bull UAV-dedicated corridors feasible in some non-congestedremote
airspace
UCArsquos added challenge
bull Operating safely in high-density heavy air traffic environment
14
Getting UCA and ANS to work together is likely the
greatest operational challenge
Legal challenges
bullHow do existing laws apply to UCA
bullDoes a remote operator have the same
legal authority and liability as a pilot in
charge
bullWhat are the certification requirements for
a remote operator
bullUCA development needs to be in step with
regulatory development
15
Regulatory changes require considerable lead-up time
and forward planning Are regulators ready for UCA
Technological challenges
bull The technology to have a UCA already exists ndash
requires fine tuning for mass market commercial
application
bull Human override possible at all times
bull Aircraft must be hacker-proof
bull As UCAs gain in size it will create security-related
concerns (ie can a UCA be weaponized)
bull UCA operator training programs will need to be
developed will skilled labour be an issue What can
we learn from the militaryrsquos experience with UAV
16
The Aircraft Platform
bull UCA can take many forms
ndash Conventional aircraft
ndash Helicopter (K-Max)
ndash Airship (LDTV)
ndash Purpose-design UCA
bull Military technology adapted to civilian use would
significantly lower development costs but make
UCA development dependent on military needs
bull Aircraft would need to be compatible with
existing air navigation requirements and ground
equipment
17
Perspectives for Conventional Aircraft
bull Converting existing manned aircraft into unmanned
aircraft would require mostly avionics changes
bull Main savings derived from labour Savings increases
with stage length when fuel is a relatively smaller
cost factor
bull Could be combined with automated taxiing (ie
Taxibot)
bull Integrates well within existing flight traffic patterns
bull Interfaces well with existing ground equipment
18
Perspectives for helicopters
bull K-Max has demonstrated the feasibility of the concept as
both a small freighter and a waterbomber
bull VTOL ideal for areas with no infrastructure or oil platforms
bull Limited range
bull Limited payload capacity (2-3t) best suited for emergency
transport or military operations (avoiding casualties) but
negates economies of scale Is there a significant civilian
market
bull Helicopters not a major factor in the civilian air cargo
market
19
Perspectives for Airships
bull Airships are targeting similar markets to large
UCA would the answer be unmanned airships
bull Airships fare relatively badly on the Gabrielli-Von
Karman line expanding high energy for low speed
bull Major airship-related issues include the need for
specialized ground crew ballast to compensate
empty loads limited markets limited utilization
20
Lighter Than Air is not without its technical problems Although modern
technology may be able to overcome these problems the ultimate issue
could be the economic feasibility of Lighter Than Air
Interagency Workshop on Lighter than Air Vehicles 1975
Is combining UAV and
airships putting too much risk
on UCA
Perspective for Custom designed aircraft
bull Best aircraft to fully maximize the benefits of
unmanned flight
bull Makes best use of fuselage volume
bull Very high altitudelow speed cruise to minimize fuel
burn
bull Could be designed to operate from gravel runways
snow or VSTOL
bull Potential to leverage military use to amortize
development costs
21
Is the UCA market large enough to off-set aircraft
development costs
Some parting thoughts
bull Since the advent of the jet age civil aviation has been
evolutionary not revolutionary
bull The challenge for civilian UCA is not as much technological as
it is
Economic Are labour savings significant enough Is the model
economically sound from an air cargo and an aircraft manufacturing
perspective
Coordination Enabling UCA to share common airspace with manned
civilian aircraft
Regulatory Ensuring regulations do not impede progress while still
maintaining aviationrsquos highest safety standards
Social license Unmanned aircraft must be perceived as safe by the non-
flying public
bull ITF can help by raising awareness of UCA with member
countries and at the Summit panel on air freight and Ministerrsquos
roundtable on drones and autonomous driving
22
Thank you very much Dank Je
23
2015 Summit on
Transport Trade and Tourism
27 ndash 29 May 2015
Leipzig Germany
http2015internationaltransportforumorg
Economic challenges
bull Payload capacity must be sufficient to be economically viable
bull Some labour savings offset by operator costs increased
ground handling
bull Large UCA to compete with converted B-737A-320 (20t
payload)
bull Air freight do not seek direct routes
bull How do UCA fit within the context of air transport
agreements
bull Long range UCA will generate similar yields than manned
aircraft ndash will they have the same economies of scale
bull Limited market may prove difficult to amortize RampD costs
13
The economics of manufacturing and of air cargo will
determine whether UCA
Air Navigation Challenges
All UAVs
bull Safe interaction between UCA ATC and manned aircraft is
essential
bull UCA must be able to acknowledge and respond to ATC
commands in controlled airspace and maintain traffic and terrain
avoidance in uncontrolled airspace
bull UAV-dedicated corridors feasible in some non-congestedremote
airspace
UCArsquos added challenge
bull Operating safely in high-density heavy air traffic environment
14
Getting UCA and ANS to work together is likely the
greatest operational challenge
Legal challenges
bullHow do existing laws apply to UCA
bullDoes a remote operator have the same
legal authority and liability as a pilot in
charge
bullWhat are the certification requirements for
a remote operator
bullUCA development needs to be in step with
regulatory development
15
Regulatory changes require considerable lead-up time
and forward planning Are regulators ready for UCA
Technological challenges
bull The technology to have a UCA already exists ndash
requires fine tuning for mass market commercial
application
bull Human override possible at all times
bull Aircraft must be hacker-proof
bull As UCAs gain in size it will create security-related
concerns (ie can a UCA be weaponized)
bull UCA operator training programs will need to be
developed will skilled labour be an issue What can
we learn from the militaryrsquos experience with UAV
16
The Aircraft Platform
bull UCA can take many forms
ndash Conventional aircraft
ndash Helicopter (K-Max)
ndash Airship (LDTV)
ndash Purpose-design UCA
bull Military technology adapted to civilian use would
significantly lower development costs but make
UCA development dependent on military needs
bull Aircraft would need to be compatible with
existing air navigation requirements and ground
equipment
17
Perspectives for Conventional Aircraft
bull Converting existing manned aircraft into unmanned
aircraft would require mostly avionics changes
bull Main savings derived from labour Savings increases
with stage length when fuel is a relatively smaller
cost factor
bull Could be combined with automated taxiing (ie
Taxibot)
bull Integrates well within existing flight traffic patterns
bull Interfaces well with existing ground equipment
18
Perspectives for helicopters
bull K-Max has demonstrated the feasibility of the concept as
both a small freighter and a waterbomber
bull VTOL ideal for areas with no infrastructure or oil platforms
bull Limited range
bull Limited payload capacity (2-3t) best suited for emergency
transport or military operations (avoiding casualties) but
negates economies of scale Is there a significant civilian
market
bull Helicopters not a major factor in the civilian air cargo
market
19
Perspectives for Airships
bull Airships are targeting similar markets to large
UCA would the answer be unmanned airships
bull Airships fare relatively badly on the Gabrielli-Von
Karman line expanding high energy for low speed
bull Major airship-related issues include the need for
specialized ground crew ballast to compensate
empty loads limited markets limited utilization
20
Lighter Than Air is not without its technical problems Although modern
technology may be able to overcome these problems the ultimate issue
could be the economic feasibility of Lighter Than Air
Interagency Workshop on Lighter than Air Vehicles 1975
Is combining UAV and
airships putting too much risk
on UCA
Perspective for Custom designed aircraft
bull Best aircraft to fully maximize the benefits of
unmanned flight
bull Makes best use of fuselage volume
bull Very high altitudelow speed cruise to minimize fuel
burn
bull Could be designed to operate from gravel runways
snow or VSTOL
bull Potential to leverage military use to amortize
development costs
21
Is the UCA market large enough to off-set aircraft
development costs
Some parting thoughts
bull Since the advent of the jet age civil aviation has been
evolutionary not revolutionary
bull The challenge for civilian UCA is not as much technological as
it is
Economic Are labour savings significant enough Is the model
economically sound from an air cargo and an aircraft manufacturing
perspective
Coordination Enabling UCA to share common airspace with manned
civilian aircraft
Regulatory Ensuring regulations do not impede progress while still
maintaining aviationrsquos highest safety standards
Social license Unmanned aircraft must be perceived as safe by the non-
flying public
bull ITF can help by raising awareness of UCA with member
countries and at the Summit panel on air freight and Ministerrsquos
roundtable on drones and autonomous driving
22
Thank you very much Dank Je
23
2015 Summit on
Transport Trade and Tourism
27 ndash 29 May 2015
Leipzig Germany
http2015internationaltransportforumorg
Air Navigation Challenges
All UAVs
bull Safe interaction between UCA ATC and manned aircraft is
essential
bull UCA must be able to acknowledge and respond to ATC
commands in controlled airspace and maintain traffic and terrain
avoidance in uncontrolled airspace
bull UAV-dedicated corridors feasible in some non-congestedremote
airspace
UCArsquos added challenge
bull Operating safely in high-density heavy air traffic environment
14
Getting UCA and ANS to work together is likely the
greatest operational challenge
Legal challenges
bullHow do existing laws apply to UCA
bullDoes a remote operator have the same
legal authority and liability as a pilot in
charge
bullWhat are the certification requirements for
a remote operator
bullUCA development needs to be in step with
regulatory development
15
Regulatory changes require considerable lead-up time
and forward planning Are regulators ready for UCA
Technological challenges
bull The technology to have a UCA already exists ndash
requires fine tuning for mass market commercial
application
bull Human override possible at all times
bull Aircraft must be hacker-proof
bull As UCAs gain in size it will create security-related
concerns (ie can a UCA be weaponized)
bull UCA operator training programs will need to be
developed will skilled labour be an issue What can
we learn from the militaryrsquos experience with UAV
16
The Aircraft Platform
bull UCA can take many forms
ndash Conventional aircraft
ndash Helicopter (K-Max)
ndash Airship (LDTV)
ndash Purpose-design UCA
bull Military technology adapted to civilian use would
significantly lower development costs but make
UCA development dependent on military needs
bull Aircraft would need to be compatible with
existing air navigation requirements and ground
equipment
17
Perspectives for Conventional Aircraft
bull Converting existing manned aircraft into unmanned
aircraft would require mostly avionics changes
bull Main savings derived from labour Savings increases
with stage length when fuel is a relatively smaller
cost factor
bull Could be combined with automated taxiing (ie
Taxibot)
bull Integrates well within existing flight traffic patterns
bull Interfaces well with existing ground equipment
18
Perspectives for helicopters
bull K-Max has demonstrated the feasibility of the concept as
both a small freighter and a waterbomber
bull VTOL ideal for areas with no infrastructure or oil platforms
bull Limited range
bull Limited payload capacity (2-3t) best suited for emergency
transport or military operations (avoiding casualties) but
negates economies of scale Is there a significant civilian
market
bull Helicopters not a major factor in the civilian air cargo
market
19
Perspectives for Airships
bull Airships are targeting similar markets to large
UCA would the answer be unmanned airships
bull Airships fare relatively badly on the Gabrielli-Von
Karman line expanding high energy for low speed
bull Major airship-related issues include the need for
specialized ground crew ballast to compensate
empty loads limited markets limited utilization
20
Lighter Than Air is not without its technical problems Although modern
technology may be able to overcome these problems the ultimate issue
could be the economic feasibility of Lighter Than Air
Interagency Workshop on Lighter than Air Vehicles 1975
Is combining UAV and
airships putting too much risk
on UCA
Perspective for Custom designed aircraft
bull Best aircraft to fully maximize the benefits of
unmanned flight
bull Makes best use of fuselage volume
bull Very high altitudelow speed cruise to minimize fuel
burn
bull Could be designed to operate from gravel runways
snow or VSTOL
bull Potential to leverage military use to amortize
development costs
21
Is the UCA market large enough to off-set aircraft
development costs
Some parting thoughts
bull Since the advent of the jet age civil aviation has been
evolutionary not revolutionary
bull The challenge for civilian UCA is not as much technological as
it is
Economic Are labour savings significant enough Is the model
economically sound from an air cargo and an aircraft manufacturing
perspective
Coordination Enabling UCA to share common airspace with manned
civilian aircraft
Regulatory Ensuring regulations do not impede progress while still
maintaining aviationrsquos highest safety standards
Social license Unmanned aircraft must be perceived as safe by the non-
flying public
bull ITF can help by raising awareness of UCA with member
countries and at the Summit panel on air freight and Ministerrsquos
roundtable on drones and autonomous driving
22
Thank you very much Dank Je
23
2015 Summit on
Transport Trade and Tourism
27 ndash 29 May 2015
Leipzig Germany
http2015internationaltransportforumorg
Legal challenges
bullHow do existing laws apply to UCA
bullDoes a remote operator have the same
legal authority and liability as a pilot in
charge
bullWhat are the certification requirements for
a remote operator
bullUCA development needs to be in step with
regulatory development
15
Regulatory changes require considerable lead-up time
and forward planning Are regulators ready for UCA
Technological challenges
bull The technology to have a UCA already exists ndash
requires fine tuning for mass market commercial
application
bull Human override possible at all times
bull Aircraft must be hacker-proof
bull As UCAs gain in size it will create security-related
concerns (ie can a UCA be weaponized)
bull UCA operator training programs will need to be
developed will skilled labour be an issue What can
we learn from the militaryrsquos experience with UAV
16
The Aircraft Platform
bull UCA can take many forms
ndash Conventional aircraft
ndash Helicopter (K-Max)
ndash Airship (LDTV)
ndash Purpose-design UCA
bull Military technology adapted to civilian use would
significantly lower development costs but make
UCA development dependent on military needs
bull Aircraft would need to be compatible with
existing air navigation requirements and ground
equipment
17
Perspectives for Conventional Aircraft
bull Converting existing manned aircraft into unmanned
aircraft would require mostly avionics changes
bull Main savings derived from labour Savings increases
with stage length when fuel is a relatively smaller
cost factor
bull Could be combined with automated taxiing (ie
Taxibot)
bull Integrates well within existing flight traffic patterns
bull Interfaces well with existing ground equipment
18
Perspectives for helicopters
bull K-Max has demonstrated the feasibility of the concept as
both a small freighter and a waterbomber
bull VTOL ideal for areas with no infrastructure or oil platforms
bull Limited range
bull Limited payload capacity (2-3t) best suited for emergency
transport or military operations (avoiding casualties) but
negates economies of scale Is there a significant civilian
market
bull Helicopters not a major factor in the civilian air cargo
market
19
Perspectives for Airships
bull Airships are targeting similar markets to large
UCA would the answer be unmanned airships
bull Airships fare relatively badly on the Gabrielli-Von
Karman line expanding high energy for low speed
bull Major airship-related issues include the need for
specialized ground crew ballast to compensate
empty loads limited markets limited utilization
20
Lighter Than Air is not without its technical problems Although modern
technology may be able to overcome these problems the ultimate issue
could be the economic feasibility of Lighter Than Air
Interagency Workshop on Lighter than Air Vehicles 1975
Is combining UAV and
airships putting too much risk
on UCA
Perspective for Custom designed aircraft
bull Best aircraft to fully maximize the benefits of
unmanned flight
bull Makes best use of fuselage volume
bull Very high altitudelow speed cruise to minimize fuel
burn
bull Could be designed to operate from gravel runways
snow or VSTOL
bull Potential to leverage military use to amortize
development costs
21
Is the UCA market large enough to off-set aircraft
development costs
Some parting thoughts
bull Since the advent of the jet age civil aviation has been
evolutionary not revolutionary
bull The challenge for civilian UCA is not as much technological as
it is
Economic Are labour savings significant enough Is the model
economically sound from an air cargo and an aircraft manufacturing
perspective
Coordination Enabling UCA to share common airspace with manned
civilian aircraft
Regulatory Ensuring regulations do not impede progress while still
maintaining aviationrsquos highest safety standards
Social license Unmanned aircraft must be perceived as safe by the non-
flying public
bull ITF can help by raising awareness of UCA with member
countries and at the Summit panel on air freight and Ministerrsquos
roundtable on drones and autonomous driving
22
Thank you very much Dank Je
23
2015 Summit on
Transport Trade and Tourism
27 ndash 29 May 2015
Leipzig Germany
http2015internationaltransportforumorg
Technological challenges
bull The technology to have a UCA already exists ndash
requires fine tuning for mass market commercial
application
bull Human override possible at all times
bull Aircraft must be hacker-proof
bull As UCAs gain in size it will create security-related
concerns (ie can a UCA be weaponized)
bull UCA operator training programs will need to be
developed will skilled labour be an issue What can
we learn from the militaryrsquos experience with UAV
16
The Aircraft Platform
bull UCA can take many forms
ndash Conventional aircraft
ndash Helicopter (K-Max)
ndash Airship (LDTV)
ndash Purpose-design UCA
bull Military technology adapted to civilian use would
significantly lower development costs but make
UCA development dependent on military needs
bull Aircraft would need to be compatible with
existing air navigation requirements and ground
equipment
17
Perspectives for Conventional Aircraft
bull Converting existing manned aircraft into unmanned
aircraft would require mostly avionics changes
bull Main savings derived from labour Savings increases
with stage length when fuel is a relatively smaller
cost factor
bull Could be combined with automated taxiing (ie
Taxibot)
bull Integrates well within existing flight traffic patterns
bull Interfaces well with existing ground equipment
18
Perspectives for helicopters
bull K-Max has demonstrated the feasibility of the concept as
both a small freighter and a waterbomber
bull VTOL ideal for areas with no infrastructure or oil platforms
bull Limited range
bull Limited payload capacity (2-3t) best suited for emergency
transport or military operations (avoiding casualties) but
negates economies of scale Is there a significant civilian
market
bull Helicopters not a major factor in the civilian air cargo
market
19
Perspectives for Airships
bull Airships are targeting similar markets to large
UCA would the answer be unmanned airships
bull Airships fare relatively badly on the Gabrielli-Von
Karman line expanding high energy for low speed
bull Major airship-related issues include the need for
specialized ground crew ballast to compensate
empty loads limited markets limited utilization
20
Lighter Than Air is not without its technical problems Although modern
technology may be able to overcome these problems the ultimate issue
could be the economic feasibility of Lighter Than Air
Interagency Workshop on Lighter than Air Vehicles 1975
Is combining UAV and
airships putting too much risk
on UCA
Perspective for Custom designed aircraft
bull Best aircraft to fully maximize the benefits of
unmanned flight
bull Makes best use of fuselage volume
bull Very high altitudelow speed cruise to minimize fuel
burn
bull Could be designed to operate from gravel runways
snow or VSTOL
bull Potential to leverage military use to amortize
development costs
21
Is the UCA market large enough to off-set aircraft
development costs
Some parting thoughts
bull Since the advent of the jet age civil aviation has been
evolutionary not revolutionary
bull The challenge for civilian UCA is not as much technological as
it is
Economic Are labour savings significant enough Is the model
economically sound from an air cargo and an aircraft manufacturing
perspective
Coordination Enabling UCA to share common airspace with manned
civilian aircraft
Regulatory Ensuring regulations do not impede progress while still
maintaining aviationrsquos highest safety standards
Social license Unmanned aircraft must be perceived as safe by the non-
flying public
bull ITF can help by raising awareness of UCA with member
countries and at the Summit panel on air freight and Ministerrsquos
roundtable on drones and autonomous driving
22
Thank you very much Dank Je
23
2015 Summit on
Transport Trade and Tourism
27 ndash 29 May 2015
Leipzig Germany
http2015internationaltransportforumorg
The Aircraft Platform
bull UCA can take many forms
ndash Conventional aircraft
ndash Helicopter (K-Max)
ndash Airship (LDTV)
ndash Purpose-design UCA
bull Military technology adapted to civilian use would
significantly lower development costs but make
UCA development dependent on military needs
bull Aircraft would need to be compatible with
existing air navigation requirements and ground
equipment
17
Perspectives for Conventional Aircraft
bull Converting existing manned aircraft into unmanned
aircraft would require mostly avionics changes
bull Main savings derived from labour Savings increases
with stage length when fuel is a relatively smaller
cost factor
bull Could be combined with automated taxiing (ie
Taxibot)
bull Integrates well within existing flight traffic patterns
bull Interfaces well with existing ground equipment
18
Perspectives for helicopters
bull K-Max has demonstrated the feasibility of the concept as
both a small freighter and a waterbomber
bull VTOL ideal for areas with no infrastructure or oil platforms
bull Limited range
bull Limited payload capacity (2-3t) best suited for emergency
transport or military operations (avoiding casualties) but
negates economies of scale Is there a significant civilian
market
bull Helicopters not a major factor in the civilian air cargo
market
19
Perspectives for Airships
bull Airships are targeting similar markets to large
UCA would the answer be unmanned airships
bull Airships fare relatively badly on the Gabrielli-Von
Karman line expanding high energy for low speed
bull Major airship-related issues include the need for
specialized ground crew ballast to compensate
empty loads limited markets limited utilization
20
Lighter Than Air is not without its technical problems Although modern
technology may be able to overcome these problems the ultimate issue
could be the economic feasibility of Lighter Than Air
Interagency Workshop on Lighter than Air Vehicles 1975
Is combining UAV and
airships putting too much risk
on UCA
Perspective for Custom designed aircraft
bull Best aircraft to fully maximize the benefits of
unmanned flight
bull Makes best use of fuselage volume
bull Very high altitudelow speed cruise to minimize fuel
burn
bull Could be designed to operate from gravel runways
snow or VSTOL
bull Potential to leverage military use to amortize
development costs
21
Is the UCA market large enough to off-set aircraft
development costs
Some parting thoughts
bull Since the advent of the jet age civil aviation has been
evolutionary not revolutionary
bull The challenge for civilian UCA is not as much technological as
it is
Economic Are labour savings significant enough Is the model
economically sound from an air cargo and an aircraft manufacturing
perspective
Coordination Enabling UCA to share common airspace with manned
civilian aircraft
Regulatory Ensuring regulations do not impede progress while still
maintaining aviationrsquos highest safety standards
Social license Unmanned aircraft must be perceived as safe by the non-
flying public
bull ITF can help by raising awareness of UCA with member
countries and at the Summit panel on air freight and Ministerrsquos
roundtable on drones and autonomous driving
22
Thank you very much Dank Je
23
2015 Summit on
Transport Trade and Tourism
27 ndash 29 May 2015
Leipzig Germany
http2015internationaltransportforumorg
Perspectives for Conventional Aircraft
bull Converting existing manned aircraft into unmanned
aircraft would require mostly avionics changes
bull Main savings derived from labour Savings increases
with stage length when fuel is a relatively smaller
cost factor
bull Could be combined with automated taxiing (ie
Taxibot)
bull Integrates well within existing flight traffic patterns
bull Interfaces well with existing ground equipment
18
Perspectives for helicopters
bull K-Max has demonstrated the feasibility of the concept as
both a small freighter and a waterbomber
bull VTOL ideal for areas with no infrastructure or oil platforms
bull Limited range
bull Limited payload capacity (2-3t) best suited for emergency
transport or military operations (avoiding casualties) but
negates economies of scale Is there a significant civilian
market
bull Helicopters not a major factor in the civilian air cargo
market
19
Perspectives for Airships
bull Airships are targeting similar markets to large
UCA would the answer be unmanned airships
bull Airships fare relatively badly on the Gabrielli-Von
Karman line expanding high energy for low speed
bull Major airship-related issues include the need for
specialized ground crew ballast to compensate
empty loads limited markets limited utilization
20
Lighter Than Air is not without its technical problems Although modern
technology may be able to overcome these problems the ultimate issue
could be the economic feasibility of Lighter Than Air
Interagency Workshop on Lighter than Air Vehicles 1975
Is combining UAV and
airships putting too much risk
on UCA
Perspective for Custom designed aircraft
bull Best aircraft to fully maximize the benefits of
unmanned flight
bull Makes best use of fuselage volume
bull Very high altitudelow speed cruise to minimize fuel
burn
bull Could be designed to operate from gravel runways
snow or VSTOL
bull Potential to leverage military use to amortize
development costs
21
Is the UCA market large enough to off-set aircraft
development costs
Some parting thoughts
bull Since the advent of the jet age civil aviation has been
evolutionary not revolutionary
bull The challenge for civilian UCA is not as much technological as
it is
Economic Are labour savings significant enough Is the model
economically sound from an air cargo and an aircraft manufacturing
perspective
Coordination Enabling UCA to share common airspace with manned
civilian aircraft
Regulatory Ensuring regulations do not impede progress while still
maintaining aviationrsquos highest safety standards
Social license Unmanned aircraft must be perceived as safe by the non-
flying public
bull ITF can help by raising awareness of UCA with member
countries and at the Summit panel on air freight and Ministerrsquos
roundtable on drones and autonomous driving
22
Thank you very much Dank Je
23
2015 Summit on
Transport Trade and Tourism
27 ndash 29 May 2015
Leipzig Germany
http2015internationaltransportforumorg
Perspectives for helicopters
bull K-Max has demonstrated the feasibility of the concept as
both a small freighter and a waterbomber
bull VTOL ideal for areas with no infrastructure or oil platforms
bull Limited range
bull Limited payload capacity (2-3t) best suited for emergency
transport or military operations (avoiding casualties) but
negates economies of scale Is there a significant civilian
market
bull Helicopters not a major factor in the civilian air cargo
market
19
Perspectives for Airships
bull Airships are targeting similar markets to large
UCA would the answer be unmanned airships
bull Airships fare relatively badly on the Gabrielli-Von
Karman line expanding high energy for low speed
bull Major airship-related issues include the need for
specialized ground crew ballast to compensate
empty loads limited markets limited utilization
20
Lighter Than Air is not without its technical problems Although modern
technology may be able to overcome these problems the ultimate issue
could be the economic feasibility of Lighter Than Air
Interagency Workshop on Lighter than Air Vehicles 1975
Is combining UAV and
airships putting too much risk
on UCA
Perspective for Custom designed aircraft
bull Best aircraft to fully maximize the benefits of
unmanned flight
bull Makes best use of fuselage volume
bull Very high altitudelow speed cruise to minimize fuel
burn
bull Could be designed to operate from gravel runways
snow or VSTOL
bull Potential to leverage military use to amortize
development costs
21
Is the UCA market large enough to off-set aircraft
development costs
Some parting thoughts
bull Since the advent of the jet age civil aviation has been
evolutionary not revolutionary
bull The challenge for civilian UCA is not as much technological as
it is
Economic Are labour savings significant enough Is the model
economically sound from an air cargo and an aircraft manufacturing
perspective
Coordination Enabling UCA to share common airspace with manned
civilian aircraft
Regulatory Ensuring regulations do not impede progress while still
maintaining aviationrsquos highest safety standards
Social license Unmanned aircraft must be perceived as safe by the non-
flying public
bull ITF can help by raising awareness of UCA with member
countries and at the Summit panel on air freight and Ministerrsquos
roundtable on drones and autonomous driving
22
Thank you very much Dank Je
23
2015 Summit on
Transport Trade and Tourism
27 ndash 29 May 2015
Leipzig Germany
http2015internationaltransportforumorg
Perspectives for Airships
bull Airships are targeting similar markets to large
UCA would the answer be unmanned airships
bull Airships fare relatively badly on the Gabrielli-Von
Karman line expanding high energy for low speed
bull Major airship-related issues include the need for
specialized ground crew ballast to compensate
empty loads limited markets limited utilization
20
Lighter Than Air is not without its technical problems Although modern
technology may be able to overcome these problems the ultimate issue
could be the economic feasibility of Lighter Than Air
Interagency Workshop on Lighter than Air Vehicles 1975
Is combining UAV and
airships putting too much risk
on UCA
Perspective for Custom designed aircraft
bull Best aircraft to fully maximize the benefits of
unmanned flight
bull Makes best use of fuselage volume
bull Very high altitudelow speed cruise to minimize fuel
burn
bull Could be designed to operate from gravel runways
snow or VSTOL
bull Potential to leverage military use to amortize
development costs
21
Is the UCA market large enough to off-set aircraft
development costs
Some parting thoughts
bull Since the advent of the jet age civil aviation has been
evolutionary not revolutionary
bull The challenge for civilian UCA is not as much technological as
it is
Economic Are labour savings significant enough Is the model
economically sound from an air cargo and an aircraft manufacturing
perspective
Coordination Enabling UCA to share common airspace with manned
civilian aircraft
Regulatory Ensuring regulations do not impede progress while still
maintaining aviationrsquos highest safety standards
Social license Unmanned aircraft must be perceived as safe by the non-
flying public
bull ITF can help by raising awareness of UCA with member
countries and at the Summit panel on air freight and Ministerrsquos
roundtable on drones and autonomous driving
22
Thank you very much Dank Je
23
2015 Summit on
Transport Trade and Tourism
27 ndash 29 May 2015
Leipzig Germany
http2015internationaltransportforumorg
Perspective for Custom designed aircraft
bull Best aircraft to fully maximize the benefits of
unmanned flight
bull Makes best use of fuselage volume
bull Very high altitudelow speed cruise to minimize fuel
burn
bull Could be designed to operate from gravel runways
snow or VSTOL
bull Potential to leverage military use to amortize
development costs
21
Is the UCA market large enough to off-set aircraft
development costs
Some parting thoughts
bull Since the advent of the jet age civil aviation has been
evolutionary not revolutionary
bull The challenge for civilian UCA is not as much technological as
it is
Economic Are labour savings significant enough Is the model
economically sound from an air cargo and an aircraft manufacturing
perspective
Coordination Enabling UCA to share common airspace with manned
civilian aircraft
Regulatory Ensuring regulations do not impede progress while still
maintaining aviationrsquos highest safety standards
Social license Unmanned aircraft must be perceived as safe by the non-
flying public
bull ITF can help by raising awareness of UCA with member
countries and at the Summit panel on air freight and Ministerrsquos
roundtable on drones and autonomous driving
22
Thank you very much Dank Je
23
2015 Summit on
Transport Trade and Tourism
27 ndash 29 May 2015
Leipzig Germany
http2015internationaltransportforumorg
Some parting thoughts
bull Since the advent of the jet age civil aviation has been
evolutionary not revolutionary
bull The challenge for civilian UCA is not as much technological as
it is
Economic Are labour savings significant enough Is the model
economically sound from an air cargo and an aircraft manufacturing
perspective
Coordination Enabling UCA to share common airspace with manned
civilian aircraft
Regulatory Ensuring regulations do not impede progress while still
maintaining aviationrsquos highest safety standards
Social license Unmanned aircraft must be perceived as safe by the non-
flying public
bull ITF can help by raising awareness of UCA with member
countries and at the Summit panel on air freight and Ministerrsquos
roundtable on drones and autonomous driving
22
Thank you very much Dank Je
23
2015 Summit on
Transport Trade and Tourism
27 ndash 29 May 2015
Leipzig Germany
http2015internationaltransportforumorg
Thank you very much Dank Je
23
2015 Summit on
Transport Trade and Tourism
27 ndash 29 May 2015
Leipzig Germany
http2015internationaltransportforumorg