Pete Silvester - Re-configuring economic development approaches

Reconfiguring Economic Development Approaches:

How Myanmar can/will reshape development futures

Pete SilvesterMPA, BCom, BA (Hons.)

Partner, Morris & Silvester

Development Futures ConferenceSydney, 21 & 22 November

Monday, 10 April 2023 INGO Forum Review 2

Who we are

• Myanmar-based strategy consultants, since August 2012

• Pride ourselves on:– Evidence-based problem solving– Knowledge of development, and of Myanmar– Integrity (GHD Integrity Management

System)

• Only take on projects which:– Have sustained positive theory of change–We know we can deliver


Pete SilvesterDevelopment Consultant

and Policy Expert Formerly with: Booz & Company; The World

Bank; OECD; Australian Government.

Master of Public Policy from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. Master of Public Affairs from Sciences Po, Paris. First Class Honours in Development Studies,

University of Melbourne

Allison MorrisDevelopment Consultant

and Policy ExpertFormerly with: OECD, Aidha (Director); CERI;

Womens Refugee Network; Berry,

Appleman & Lieden LLP.Master of Public Affairs

(Magna Cum Laude) from Sciences Po, Paris.

Bachelor’s of International Studies

from Emory University.

Nilar WynnResearcher and

consultant Has worked with Morris

& Silvester for CARE Myanmar, ‑

Emerging Markets Consulting (for

Volkswagen and Oxfam), and HelpAge International.

Myanmar nationalHolds a Bachelor of Arts from Yangon University

Zar ChiOffice Manager

Myanmar nationalHolds a Bachelor of

Science in MathematicsProfessionally trained in computers and tourism

management


Who we work with

• OECD• CARE• World Bank• HelpAge International

Development

• University of Indiana, Kelly School of Business• Emerging Market Consulting• Ringier AG• West Indochina

Private Sector

• Kaufmann Foundation (GEW)• European Union• British Council• Ooredoo, MBE, and others

CSR Partners


We’re also Myanmar’s first incubator


1947 Colonial period ends1947 Bogyoke Aung San assassinated1948 Independence1958 First (temporary) coup d’état by the military1962 Military coup: Burmese way of socialism1988 Following unrest, the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC)

takes power through an internal coup. Myanmar is declared a market

economy. 1990 National League for Democracy (NLD) wins election, but

results are 1990annulled by SLORC. Sanctions imposed.

1997 Myanmar joins ASEAN.2005 Capital moved from Yangon (formerly Rangoon) to Nay Pyi Taw2008 Cyclone Nargis devastates the Irrawaddy delta, killing up to 150 0002010 Elections boycotted by NLD2011 General Than Shwe steps aside. U Thein Sein becomes president.2012 NLD wins 43 seats in by-elections. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is elected.2014 Myanmar to chair ASEAN for the first time2015 General elections to be held in December

Romp through Myanmar history


At a glance

• Population: 50-60 million (?)• Population growth rate:

0.7% p.a.• GDP per capita: $580 p.a.• HDI: 0.483 (150th)• Connectivity: Very low• Infrastructure: Shocking• Opportunities: Amazing!

Monday, 10 April 2023 Development Futures Conference 8

Current dominant narratives• Davos bullishness– Geostrategic advantages– Natural resources– Very reform-minded (business friendly)

government


Current dominant narratives

• Meanwhile, a familiar story…– Inflation (development bubble)– Growing inequality– Environmental degradation– Corruption– Violence


Current dominant narratives

• Asian economic growth model– Increase production factors – capital and

labour– Attract foreign investment– Start with low wage industry, and earn

your way up the value chain

Is that all we’ve got?


Our objective for today

To develop plausible futures that challenge the pre-existing narrative of

Asian economic development, particularly for Myanmar.


Roles – Facilitator (me):

- Provide minimal background info- Encourage you to open your mind

and shed your preconceptions- Guide brainstorming through some

basic stages


Roles – Participants (you):

- Bring your knowledge, leave your preconceptions- Think macro, long term

- 10 years to 50 years- No so much about current status quo and current

drivers, but possible future drivers and future status quos

- Also think micro when describing a future- Be a story-teller- Get creative

- Have fun- Silly ideas are more fun, and are usually the best ones- If your professional persona isn’t fun, leave it outside- Own the space


Identifying assumptions of the Asian Model of development

What are the “assumptions” of the Asian model?


Drivers of change

Which of these identified “assumptions” are going to persist,

which will change?

What current and future forces are going to change or negate the Asian

Model narrative?


Link up a framework

Which drivers could plausibly effect another?Link them.

Which drivers don’t seem to link very well?Kill them.

Are there common themes and stories emerging?

Cluster them


Write narrative

Pick your favourite cluster.

Make up a story about the links and write it down.

Richly describe the world in your story:Characters. How the world works. Events. Development outcomes.


Tell your story


Thank you

Pete SilvesterPartner, Morris & Silvester | Co-founder, Project Hub Yangon

#203 United Condo, 39 Alan Pya Pagoda Road, [email protected]

+95 (0) 9 3121 6412 | +61 413 350 007Twitter: @petesilvo | @HubYangon

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Pete Silvester - Re-configuring economic development approaches

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