Climate Change Adaptation Assessment in the Agriculture
SectorAn International Perspective
Awareness-Raising and Consultation WorkshopTashkent, Uzbekistan
19-May-2010
Peter DroogersFutureWater
Wageningen
Netherlands
IPCC projections
IPCC projections (annual)
Temperature and precipitation changes from the MMD-A1B simulations. Annual mean temperature change between 1980 to 1999 and 2080 to 2099, averaged over 21 models.
IPCC Precipitation (monthly)
DJF JJA
IPCC Precipitation (monthly)
Number of models, out of 21, that project increases in precipitation.
Probability
“The Art of Predicting Climate Variability and Change”, Bart van den Hurk and Daniela Jacob (2009)
Why Quantitative Tools
IPCC recommendations for water resources managers
Source: “Managing Water under current climate variability” Eelco van Beek (2009, adapted from IPCC (2001, Table 4–13))
Adaptation vs. Mitigation
Time in Years
Net
Ben
efits
of A
dap
tation
and M
itig
atio
n
Adaptation Mitigation
Time in Years
Net
Ben
efits
of A
dap
tation
and M
itig
atio
n
Adaptation Mitigation
Which Quantitative Tool
Quantitative analysis
Understand current water resources
Understand past water resources
Options for future- technical- socio-economic- policy oriented
Trend
Past
Today
Future
•Remote Sensing•Observations•Analysis •Statistics
•Models?Alter
Number of Models?
??
Which model?
Physical detaillowhigh
Sp
atia
l sca
le
field
system
basin
continentPodium
STREAM
SLURP
WSBM
SWAT
WEAP
IQQM
SWAP
AquaCrop
Number of Satellites?
??
Remote Sensing
Pixel size (resolution)
250m - 1 km 5 km30 m
Frequency
30 min.
1 Day
Twoweeks
AVHRR / MODIS
GOES/METEOSAT
Landsat / ASTER
180 km
2500 km
1 to 4 m
Ikonos
11 km
Remotely Sensed Evapotranspiration
Global Studies
Climate change vs. Population change
Vörösmarty, C.J., P. Green, J. Salisbury, R.B. Lammers. 2000. Global Water Resources:
Vulnerability from Climate Change and Population Growth. Science 289: 284-288.
Climate change vs. Population change
Vörösmarty, C.J., P. Green, J. Salisbury, R.B. Lammers. 2000. Global Water Resources:
Vulnerability from Climate Change and Population Growth. Science 289: 284-288.
Climate change vs. Population change
Vörösmarty, C.J., P. Green, J. Salisbury, R.B. Lammers. 2000. Global Water Resources:
Vulnerability from Climate Change and Population Growth. Science 289: 284-288.
Climate change vs. Population change
• Population change: gradual
• Climate change: extremes
Vörösmarty, C.J., P. Green, J. Salisbury, R.B. Lammers. 2000. Global Water Resources:
Vulnerability from Climate Change and Population Growth. Science 289: 284-288.
Field Scale Studies
Comparing field scale adaptation in contrasting basins
• Impact and Adaptation in 7 contrasting basins
• Representative fields• Simulation model
SWAP• Various adaptation
strategies
Deep groundwater
Surface runoff
Transpiration
Evaporation
PrecipitationIrrigation
Unsaturatedzone
Saturatedzone
Drainage/subsurface infiltration
Properties:- water retention- hydraulic conductivity
Transport:- water- heat- solutes
Deep groundwaterDeep groundwater
Surface runoffSurface runoff
TranspirationTranspiration
EvaporationEvaporation
PrecipitationPrecipitationIrrigationIrrigation
Unsaturatedzone
Saturatedzone
Unsaturatedzone
Saturatedzone
Drainage/subsurface infiltration
Drainage/subsurface infiltration
Properties:- water retention- hydraulic conductivity
Transport:- water- heat- solutes
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%
Changes in Yield (%)
2010-20392070-2099
Zay_Wheat
Zay_Rice
Wal_Vege
Wal_Rice
Vol_Maize
Vol-Rice
Syr_Wheat
Syr_Cotton
Sac_Tomato
Sac_Rice
Rhi_Wheat
Rhi_SugB
Mek_Maize
Mek_Rice
Source: Aerts and Droogers, 2003. Climate Change in Contrasting River Basins, Adaptation Strategies for Water, Food and Environment
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Changes in Variation (%)
2010-20392070-2099
Zay_Wheat
Zay_Rice
Wal_Vege
Wal_Rice
Vol_Maize
Vol-Rice
Syr_Wheat
Syr_Cotton
Sac_Tomato
Sac_Rice
Rhi_Wheat
Rhi_SugB
Mek_Maize
Mek_Rice
Source: Aerts and Droogers, 2003. Climate Change in Contrasting River Basins, Adaptation Strategies for Water, Food and Environment
-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Changes in Consumption (%)
2010-20392070-2099
Zay_Wheat
Zay_Rice
Wal_Vege
Wal_Rice
Vol_Maize
Vol-Rice
Syr_Wheat
Syr_Cotton
Sac_Tomato
Sac_Rice
Rhi_Wheat
Rhi_SugB
Mek_Maize
Mek_Rice
Source: Aerts and Droogers, 2003. Climate Change in Contrasting River Basins, Adaptation Strategies for Water, Food and Environment
Basin-Field Scale Analysis
Relevance
• Crop growth and climate change– Changes in rainfall
– Changes in temperature
– Changes in reference evapotranspiration
– Changes in CO2
• Analysis using WEAP– Water availability (including variation)
• Analsyis using AquaCrop– Current situation
– Impact
– Adaptation
• no irrigation
• less irrigation
• 3 crops
• …..
Basin-Field scale combined
Physical detaillowhigh
Sp
atia
l sca
le
field
system
basin
continent
WEAP
AquaCrop
AquaCrop
• Main processes
AquaCrop
• User-friendly Interface
Typical Output
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
01/0
1/20
00
01/0
2/20
00
01/0
3/20
00
01/0
4/20
00
01/0
5/20
00
01/0
6/20
00
01/0
7/20
00
01/0
8/20
00
01/0
9/20
00
01/1
0/20
00
01/1
1/20
00
01/1
2/20
00
Ru
no
ff, d
arai
nag
e, E
T (
mm
/d)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Irri
gat
ion
(m
m/d
)
Irr
Runoff
Drain
ET
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
01/0
1/20
00
01/0
2/20
00
01/0
3/20
00
01/0
4/20
00
01/0
5/20
00
01/0
6/20
00
01/0
7/20
00
01/0
8/20
00
01/0
9/20
00
01/1
0/20
00
01/1
1/20
00
01/1
2/20
00
Bio
mas
s, y
ield
(to
n/h
a)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Wat
er s
tres
s (%
)
Biomassa
Yield
Stress
Summary Results
• Impact of Climate Change
Current CC CC no irr CC red irr 3-crops Crop Yield total (ton/ha) 13.4 18.2 9.3 18.1 19.3 Irrigation (mm/year) 1200 1200 0 150 1170 Precipitation (mm/year) 1507 1855 1855 1855 1855 ET (mm/year) 1663 1754 1703 1703 1724
Summary Results
• More rainfall in 2050:– no irrigation???
• Substantial reduction in yield
Current CC CC no irr CC red irr 3-crops Crop Yield total (ton/ha) 13.4 18.2 9.3 18.1 19.3 Irrigation (mm/year) 1200 1200 0 150 1170 Precipitation (mm/year) 1507 1855 1855 1855 1855 ET (mm/year) 1663 1754 1703 1703 1724
Summary Results
• More rainfall in 2050:– less irrigation???
• Almost no impact on yield
Current CC CC no irr CC red irr 3-crops Crop Yield total (ton/ha) 13.4 18.2 9.3 18.1 19.3 Irrigation (mm/year) 1200 1200 0 150 1170 Precipitation (mm/year) 1507 1855 1855 1855 1855 ET (mm/year) 1663 1754 1703 1703 1724
Summary Results
• Three crops in one year?• Increase in yield• Operational farm management should improve
Current CC CC no irr CC red irr 3-crops Crop Yield total (ton/ha) 13.4 18.2 9.3 18.1 19.3 Irrigation (mm/year) 1200 1200 0 150 1170 Precipitation (mm/year) 1507 1855 1855 1855 1855 ET (mm/year) 1663 1754 1703 1703 1724
WEAP analysis
WEAP
WEAP
WEAP output
•Estimate flood depth for a recurrence time of 5 years
Concluding remarks
• Adaptation climate changes:– Increase in extremes– Uncertainty
• Quantitative tools:– Models– Remote sensing
• Scale issues:– Basin: water availability and variability – Field: crop yields
• Issues not covered:– Salinity– Economics– ….
Thank You