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Peter InceU.S. Forest ServiceForest Products LaboratoryMadison, WI
Topics:
2010 RPA Forest Assessment
U.S. Forest Products Module (USFPM)
FIA/TPO data elements in USFPM
Potential Future Bioenergy Data Needs
The U.S. Forest Service produces 50-year projections of forest resource trends in the RPA Assessment reports every five years:
Recent RPAAssessmentReports (2002, 2007)
RPA research includes long-range modeling of trends in wood supply and demand
P
Q
S
D
Developing Long-Range
Forest Product Market
Projections for the 2010
RPA Assessment . . .
Approach:
Global Forest Products Model (GFPM)
U.S. Forest Products Module (USFPM)
RPA Scenarios (based on IPCC SRES)
Linkages to other RPA Models . . .
ForecastedWood Products and Timber Outputs
and prices
2010 RPA Models and Scenario Analysis IPCC Global
Scenarios
SocioeconomicVariables
BioenergyForecasts
ClimateForecasts
US Forest ProductsModule (USFPM)
Land Use Model
Translation / Downscaling
Translation /Downscaling
Forest area supply
CarbonAccounting
Ecosystem ServicesWildlife, Water, Recreation, Forage
LandscapeStructure
ForecastedForest Conditions
and Land Use
Timber harvest & supply
Domestic Macroeconomics
and DemographicsForecasts
Forest DynamicsModel
Global ForestProducts Model
For the 2010 RPA Assessment, we developed the “U.S. Forest Products Module” (USFPM) within the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM):
Rationale for global model & linkages:
Globalization of forest product markets
Global expansion of biomass energy
Forest impacts of global climate change
Global forest & market interactions
RPA Assessment Objectives:
To Provide Long-Range Information (50-year projections) about the Status and Trends of the Nation’s Renewable Resources on Forests and Grasslands-----------------------------------------------
Special focus of 2010 RPA Assessment
IPCC Global Socioeconomic and Climate Scenarios . . . with global bioenergy outlook
Some basics about USFPM (U.S. Forest Products Module for 2010 RPA):
We built USFPM to run inside the GFPM (when we run USFPM we also run the global analysis)
USFPM expands what was originally a single region in the GFPM (USA among 180 other countries)
USFPM models timber supply, timber harvest, and forest product production in the three U.S. subregions (North, South, West):
We model U.S. wood supply and demand at several market levels in USFPM . . .
Timber(standing trees, or stumpage)
Timber Product Outputs(delivered logs & chips)
Forest Product s
Harvest Mills
We model “wood fuel feedstock” demand = harvested fuelwood and fuel residues. . .
TimberTPO
Harvest Mills
FuelwoodHarvest
Fuel Residues
Wood Fuel Feedstock
Compared to the GFPM, USFPM has a much more complete regional supply structure for wood and wood fiber, with base year (2006) timber supplies calibrated precisely to Forest Service regional FIA data and TPO data by species group:
GFPM
Industrial RoundwoodFuelwood
Other Indust. Rndwd.Other Fiber PulpWastepaper
USFPM
Softwood SawtimberHardwood SawtimberSoftwood Non-SawtimberHardwood Non-Sawtimber
Other Fiber PulpRecovered Paper
Softwood Ag. SRWCHardwood Ag. SRWC
Mill Residues
Sawlogs/Veneer logsOther Indust. RndwdHarvest ResidueFuel FeedstockPulpwood/Comp.
(GTR-WO-78)
FIA/TPO data elements in USFPM (corresponding to data in RPA “Forest Resources” report, GTR-WO-78 ): Sawtimber & Non-Sawtimber harvests (HW/SW) Timber Product Outputs per unit of timber harvest Harvest Residues per unit of timber harvest Fuel & Fiber (Mill) Residue outputs (HW/SW) Forest Inventories & Net Annual Growth (HW/SW)
USFPM also allows “cascading” economic substitution of raw materials into fiber or energy products based on prices and costs – i.e. if demand or prices for fuel or pulpwood become high enough, they can consume higher value inputs:
Agric. SRWCSawlogs
Logging Residue
Pulpwood/Composite
Fiber Residue
Fuel Residue
Fuel Feedstock
60% of logging residue can be recovered and used for fuel feedstock, but this requires a price higher than current fuelwood price, to pay for residue recovery expense
FIA/TPO data relevant to bioenergy in USFPM include . . .
Fuelwood Harvest & Logging Residue supplies, modeled as “by-products” of timber harvest activities in USFPM
Fuel Residue (mill residue) supply, modeled in USFPM as “by-products” of forest product production activities
Fuel Feedstock demand = Total wood demand for energy including fuelwood, fuel residues, and “cascading” supplies of pulpwood, SRWC, logging residues, etc.
Summary
USFPM model developed for 2010 RPA using FIA/TPO fuelwood harvest, fuel residue and logging residue data
USFPM also models potential “cascading” use of logging residues, pulpwood, Ag. SRWC, and even sawlogs for energy (but only if economical to do so)
The “Fuel Feedstock Demand” encompasses all wood demands for energy (not differentiated by end use)
RPA Wood EnergyScenarios (IPCC)
According to IPCC (and RPA scenarios), the peaking of global petroleum output will occur within the next couple of decades . . .
IPCC (SRES): World petroleum output peaks during 2020-2030 in all three of our scenarios . . . Peaking of oil causes subsequent massive increases in bio-energy
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A1B
A2
B2
{
RPA Scenarios: We calibrate U.S. demand growth for wood fuel feedstock to IPCC scenarios on biomass energy production, as shown here . . .
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B2
Projections calibrated to 6 EJ primary biomass energy in 2000 (as in B2 scenario)
~6X
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U.S. Fuel Feedstock Output by Source & A1B Projection (MMCM)
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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060RW Harvest Fuel Residue SW Pulpwood HW Pulpwood Fiber Residue
Harvest Residue Howard RW TPO Fuel Residue
Massive (~6X) increase in U.S. wood fuel feedstock demand (2010-2060) is a feature of A1B scenario. Energy demands eat into pulpwood, mill residues & harvest residues . . .
USFPM A1 Projection - Total U.S. Wood Harvest (MMCM)
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Residue Removal
Agric. SRWC
Non-Sawtimber
Sawtimber
Total U.S. wood harvest (all sources) more than triples(!) in A1 scenario, with expanding wood energy & net exports:
USFPM A2 Projection - Total U.S. Wood Harvest (MMCM)
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Residue Removal
Agric. SRWC
Non-Sawtimber
Sawtimber
Total U.S. wood harvest (all sources) is lower in the A2 scenario, with lower wood energy and lower net exports:
USFPM B2 Projection - Total Forest Biomass Supply (MMCM)
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Residue Removal
Agric. SRWC
Non-Sawtimber
Sawtimber
Total U.S. wood harvest (all sources) is lowest in the B2 scenario, with not quite a doubling in harvest by 2060:
Potential Future Bioenergy Data Needs
USFPM calibrated to current FIA/TPO data (WO-GTR-78) does not require additional wood bioenergy data
However, if bioenergy use expands, future RPA models (2015 RPA?) may need more detailed wood energy data, such as harvest and residue volumes by more detailed wood energy categories (conventional fuelwood, wood for fuel pellets, wood biomass burned for electric power, wood biomass for liquid fuels, etc.)