Peter RitchieMD Agama Environment & Energy Services Limited

House of Representatives Committee on Climate Change Workshop, Kaduna,

May 22 2009peter.ritchie@yahoo.co.uk

Four Distinctive Climate Change Characteristics

They are Cumulative The effects are Irreversible Large time lags – today’s actions are

tomorrow’s problems They are Global

Two International InstitutionsIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC) Assessment Report 4, 2007 (data 2006) Hundreds of scientists worldwide contribute as

authors and reviewers Assessment Reports immediately become

standard works of reference for policymakers and experts

Graded Scenario Projections – Very High Confidence and High Confidence

Two International InstitutionsUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate

Change (UNFCCC) (1994) Encourages Greenhouse Gas Reductions Kyoto Protocol: Commits Industrialised Countries

(Adopted 1997; into Force 2005)Reductions between 2008 - 2012Emissions TradingClean Development Mechanism (CDM) (Annex

B/Developing countries)Joint Implementation (JI) (Annex B Parties)

Bali Roadmap: Post 2012 Negotiations for new Treaty/Protocol – Copenhagen (Dec 2009)

Two Influential Reports Stern Review

“An unstable climate will undermine the conditions necessary for economic growth in both the developed and developing worlds”

International Energy Agency ‘World Energy Outlook’“High Carbon” global economic model is

unsustainable.

Direct Observations of Recent Climate Change

Global Mean Temperature

Global Average Sea Level

Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover

Aims and Reality

Cut Global Carbon Emissions Temperature increase of .8 degree Additional rise of at least .6 degree Stabilise at plus 2 degrees? Massive Regional Impacts

Lake Chad

This image set displays a continued decline in lake surface area from 22 902 km² in 1963 to a meager 304 km² in 2001.

Muir Glacier, Alaska, August 1941, photo by W.O. Field

Muir Glacier, Alaska, August 2004, photo by B.F. Molnia

IPCC AR4 Africa: Key Findings One of the most vulnerable continents,

aggravated by the interaction of ‘multiple stresses’, occurring at various levels.

Impact the poorest countries and the poorest persons within these countries.

Regions most affected: Large Deltas Ecosystems: Changes in a variety of

ecosystems are already being detected, at a faster rate than anticipated.

IPCC AR4 Africa: Key Findings Agriculture: production and food security

(including access to food) will likely be severely compromised.

Agriculture: reductions in yield could be as much as 50% by 2020 and 90% by 2100, with small scale farms being the most affected.

IPCC AR4 Africa: Key Findings Water: countries that are not presently at risk

will become at risk of water shortages. Sea Level Rise: result in low-lying lands being

inundated, with impacts on coastal settlements.

Sea Level Rise: with human-induced changes, may also affect ecosystems (mangroves), with additional consequences on fisheries.

IPCC AR4 Africa: Key Findings Forests: Climate change, interacting with

human drivers such as deforestation and forest fires are threatening Africa’s forest ecosystems.

Health: already compromised could also be further negatively impacted by climate change and climate variability.

Health: it is likely that climate change may alter the ecology of some infectious disease vectors, e.g. malaria, dengue fever, meningitis and cholera.

Feedback Mechanisms

Feedback Mechanisms Not factored into IPCC models Mutually Reinforcing Degrading Carbon Sinks

Acidic Oceans not absorbing CarbonSurface temperature rise eventually leading to

carbon being releasedAs Ecosystems heat up plants (forests) and soil fail

to take up carbon

Permafrost Melting releasing Methane (Siberia)

UNFCCC Process Bali Roadmap (Post 2012)

Ad Hoc Working Group on Long Term Cooperative Action

Multiple Sessions leading to Copenhagen (Dec 2009)

PoznanShared vision for long-term cooperative actionRisk management and risk reduction strategies,

including risk sharing and transfer mechanisms such as insurance

Cooperation on research and development of current, new and innovative technology, including win-win solutions

Other Processes & Initiatives G8 – G20 Regional

Asia PacificLatin American CountriesAfrica

Sub – National State level InitiativesCity Initiatives

Aims of the Negotiation Aggregate Mitigation Targets

Short Term Targets: 40% by 2020Long Term Targets: 80% by 2050Responsibility and equity between developed and

developing countries

AdaptationAdequate Financial Mechanisms: US$50 – US$100

billion per annumSupport for Developing country preparation of

Adaptation Strategies and the Implementation of Adaptation Programmes

Group Positions Annex 1 (Industrialised countries)

EU: commitment to at least 30% reductions by 2020 USA: 17% by 2020 Weak commitments to funding financial mechanisms

Emerging Economies Verifiable mitigation targets Technology Transfer Adequate Adaptation Funding

G77 & Africa Adaptation Finance CDM

OPEC Business as Usual?

USA and China Two largest contributors to global carbon emissions Bilateral Negotiations

A deal expected before the December Copenhagen Conference

Domestic Action Initiatives at the State level Climate Bill has passed Congressional Committee Stage New Stringent Vehicle Emission Standards China closing inefficient power-plants and other industrial plants

Key Challenges Leading to Copenhagen Lack of Urgency Political Will at the Highest Level A Climate Regime that recognises and can

manage Compliance AND Voluntary Mechanisms

Continuing Technology Transfer issues including Intellectual Property and adequate Finance

Finance for Adaptation and MitigationCosts are huge and international mechanisms are not

realistic

International “Menu”

Key Challenges Post Copenhagen Quick National Ratification

National Assembly needs to be engaged

Agreement needs to be in force in 2012 Rolling out the technology

Renewables, Nuclear, etc. Heavy reliance on unproven technology –

Carbon Capture and Sequestration

Game Changers Economic Crisis Increasing support for Low Carbon

Development Path USA

Reducing oil dependence/Green technology revolution

“any governor who’s willing to promote clean energy will have a partner in the White House. Any company that’s willing to invest in clean energy will have an ally in Washington. And any nation that’s willing to join the cause of combating climate change will have an ally in the United States of America.” Obama 22 Nov 2008

Nigeria – Negotiation Clearly Defined Positions on Bali Roadmap Issues

(Position Papers?)Technology TransferFinanceNational Adaptation Strategy (desertification & coastal

erosion)Food Security/Water Security/Energy Security

What/Who is guiding the Nigerian Agenda and Negotiation Goals?

Group Membership: Africa, G77/China and OPEC Links to Nigerian Economic Policy

Vision 2020/Seven Point Agenda

Nigeria – Negotiations The Need for a Strong Negotiation Team

Engage Experts from CSO and Private Sector

Bilateral Agreements Investment/Technology: EU/USA /China and Private

SectorPolicy/Best Practice: Bangladesh/Netherlands

Nairobi Framework – scaling up CDM in AfricaAttract Funds to Nigerian Projects

Low Carbon Development Path Voluntary/Sectoral No Lose Targets

Verifiable

International Negotiations and Domestic Actions

Countries such as China, Mexico, Brazil, South Africa, South Korea and Papua New Guinea have already taken steps towards developing national plans to reduce emissions as part of their wider sustainable development strategies

National Action - Options Climate Change/Environment #8 on the

Presidents 7 Point Agenda National Coordination at the Highest Level Decision Making and Policy Making informed by

research and statisticsNigerian Carbon InventoryVulnerability AssessmentMini Stern Review – What Are the Costs

Investment in Low Carbon TechnologyCDM – Nairobi FrameworkGas Fired Power Plants and Renewable Technologies

National Action - Options Reduction and Elimination of Gas Flaring Restoration and Management of Ecosystems Afforestation Programmes

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD)

Low Impact AgricultureSmaller yields but less water and less soil erosion

Built EnvironmentLand Use/ZoningBetter Design (natural light and ventilation)Building materials

Transport Improved infrastructures and public transport systems

Change is Coming

Unprecedented Socio-Economic Change

Three OptionsBottom Up cooperative and creative changeTop Down Transnational intrusion and

enforcementContinue on Present Path

Peter Ritchie

Managing Director

Agama Environment & Energy Services Limited

peter.ritchie@yahoo.co.uk

080 2203 4004