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Pew forum on religion aug 8 Frank newport, gallup presentation v.2 revised aug 12

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Page 1: Pew forum on religion aug 8 Frank newport, gallup presentation v.2 revised aug 12
Page 2: Pew forum on religion aug 8 Frank newport, gallup presentation v.2 revised aug 12

THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE RISE OF THE NONES: FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN RELIGIOSITY OR CHANGE IN LABELING?

Preliminary Draft Presented at the forum “Religion Trends in the U.S.”, sponsored by the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, Washington, D.C.

Frank Newport, Ph.D.

Gallup

August 8, 2013

Page 3: Pew forum on religion aug 8 Frank newport, gallup presentation v.2 revised aug 12

Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 3

CHANGE IN “NONES”: 2008 TO 2012

Nones All Other Sample Size

2008 14.60% 85.40% 311,591

2012 17.80% 82.20% 353,571

Change +3. 2% -3.2%  

Gallup Daily Tracking

Page 4: Pew forum on religion aug 8 Frank newport, gallup presentation v.2 revised aug 12

Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 4

CHANGE IN FOUR INDICATORS OF RELIGIOSITY: 2008 TO 2012

Nones

Religion Not Important in Daily Life

Seldom/Never Attend Religious Services

Overall Religiosity: Unreligious

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

14.60%

34.20%

45.40%

30.40%

17.80%

34.40%

46.10%

31.00%

2012 2008

+3.2%

Gallup Daily Tracking

Page 5: Pew forum on religion aug 8 Frank newport, gallup presentation v.2 revised aug 12

Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 5

CHANGE IN NONES, BASED ON SELF-REPORTED IMPORTANCE OF RELIGION: 2008 TO 2012

% Nones

Religion Important

Religion Not Important

2008 4.00% 34.60%

2012 4.90% 41.90%

Change 0.90% 7.30%

Gallup Daily Tracking

Page 6: Pew forum on religion aug 8 Frank newport, gallup presentation v.2 revised aug 12

Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 6

CHANGE IN SELF-REPORTED IMPORTANCE OF RELIGION: 2008 AND 2012

Religion Important

Yes No DK/Refused

2008 65.30% 34.20% 0.50%

2012 65.10% 34.40% 0.50%

Gallup Daily Tracking

Page 7: Pew forum on religion aug 8 Frank newport, gallup presentation v.2 revised aug 12

Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved.

  % Nones

 At least once a week

Almost every week

About once a month

Seldom Never

2008 2.70% 2.80% 5.20% 13.40% 46.60%

2012 3.50% 3.60% 6.70% 15.80% 53.60%

Change

0.80% 0.80% 1.50% 2.40% 7.00%

7

CHANGE IN NONES, BASED ON RELIGIOUS SERVICE ATTENDANCE: 2008 TO 2012

Gallup Daily Tracking

Page 8: Pew forum on religion aug 8 Frank newport, gallup presentation v.2 revised aug 12

Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 8

CHANGE IN RELIGIOUS SERVICE ATTENDANCE: 2008 AND 2012

 

At least once a week

Almost every week

About once a month

Seldom Never

2008 33.70% 8.40% 11.70% 25.70% 19.80%

2012 32.60% 8.40% 11.70% 24.70% 21.30%

Gallup Daily Tracking

Page 9: Pew forum on religion aug 8 Frank newport, gallup presentation v.2 revised aug 12

Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 9

CHANGE IN NONES, BASED ON RELIGIOSITY INDEX: 2008 TO 2012

Gallup Daily Tracking

  % Nones

Very Religious Americans

Moderately Religious American

Unreligious Americans

2008 2.40% 6.90% 38.00%

2012 3.10% 8.40% 45.50%

Change 0.70% 1.50% 7.50%

Page 10: Pew forum on religion aug 8 Frank newport, gallup presentation v.2 revised aug 12

Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 10

CHANGE IN RELIGIOSITY INDEX: 2008 AND 2012

Gallup Daily Tracking

  % Nones

Very Religious Americans

Moderately Religious American

Unreligious Americans

2008 40.90% 28.70% 30.40%

2012 40.10% 28.90% 31.00%

Page 11: Pew forum on religion aug 8 Frank newport, gallup presentation v.2 revised aug 12

Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 11

CHANGE IN RELIGIOUS IDENTIFICATION: 2008 TO 2012

Gallup Daily Tracking

Protestant/Other

ChristianCatholic Mormon Jewish Muslim

Other non-

Christian

religion

Nones

2008 54.10% 24.30% 1.70% 1.80% 0.40% 3.10% 14.60%

2012 51.90% 23.30% 2.10% 1.70% 0.60% 2.60% 17.80%

Change -2.20% -1.00% 0.40% -0.10% 0.20% -0.50% 3.20%

Page 12: Pew forum on religion aug 8 Frank newport, gallup presentation v.2 revised aug 12

Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 12

FOUR MEASURES OF RELIGIOSITY BY AGE: 2012

Gallup Daily Tracking

18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 870%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Nones UnreligiousReligion Not Important Seldom/Never Attend

Page 13: Pew forum on religion aug 8 Frank newport, gallup presentation v.2 revised aug 12

Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 13

NONES BY AGE: 2008 AND 2012

Gallup Daily Tracking

181920212223242526272829303132333435363738394041424344454647484950515253545556575859606162636465666768697071727374757677787980818283848586878889

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2008 2012

Page 14: Pew forum on religion aug 8 Frank newport, gallup presentation v.2 revised aug 12

Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 14

INCREASE FROM 2008 TO 2012 IN % NONES, BY AGE

Gallup Daily Tracking

18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 870%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

Page 15: Pew forum on religion aug 8 Frank newport, gallup presentation v.2 revised aug 12

Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 15

RELIGIOUS IDENTIFICATION BY AGE: 2012

Gallup Daily Tracking

181920212223242526272829303132333435363738394041424344454647484950515253545556575859606162636465666768697071727374757677787980818283848586878889

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Protestant/Other Christian Catholic Nones

Page 16: Pew forum on religion aug 8 Frank newport, gallup presentation v.2 revised aug 12

Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 16

EACH DOT REPRESENTS ONE AGE POINT

NONES AND PROTESTANTS: 2012

Gallup Daily Tracking

35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70%0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

% Protestant

% N

on

es

Page 17: Pew forum on religion aug 8 Frank newport, gallup presentation v.2 revised aug 12

Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 17

EACH DOT REPRESENTS ONE AGE POINT

NONES AND CATHOLICS

Gallup Daily Tracking

5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

% Catholic

% N

on

es

Page 18: Pew forum on religion aug 8 Frank newport, gallup presentation v.2 revised aug 12

Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 18

For further information, please contact: Dr. Frank NewportGallup, Inc.502 Carnegie Center, Suite 300Princeton, NJ 08540609 924 [email protected] 

 Details on Gallup Tracking methodology are available here: http://www.gallup.com/poll/163631/gallup-daily-tracking-methodology.aspx 


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