Pew forum on religion aug 8 Frank newport, gallup presentation v.2 revised aug 12

THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE RISE OF THE NONES: FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN RELIGIOSITY OR CHANGE IN LABELING?

Preliminary Draft Presented at the forum “Religion Trends in the U.S.”, sponsored by the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, Washington, D.C.

Frank Newport, Ph.D.

Gallup

August 8, 2013

Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 3

CHANGE IN “NONES”: 2008 TO 2012

Nones All Other Sample Size

2008 14.60% 85.40% 311,591

2012 17.80% 82.20% 353,571

Change +3. 2% -3.2%

Gallup Daily Tracking


CHANGE IN FOUR INDICATORS OF RELIGIOSITY: 2008 TO 2012

Nones

Religion Not Important in Daily Life

Seldom/Never Attend Religious Services

Overall Religiosity: Unreligious

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

14.60%

34.20%

45.40%

30.40%

17.80%

34.40%

46.10%

31.00%

2012 2008

+3.2%



CHANGE IN NONES, BASED ON SELF-REPORTED IMPORTANCE OF RELIGION: 2008 TO 2012

% Nones

Religion Important

Religion Not Important

2008 4.00% 34.60%

2012 4.90% 41.90%

Change 0.90% 7.30%



CHANGE IN SELF-REPORTED IMPORTANCE OF RELIGION: 2008 AND 2012

Religion Important

Yes No DK/Refused

2008 65.30% 34.20% 0.50%

2012 65.10% 34.40% 0.50%


Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved.

% Nones

At least once a week

Almost every week

About once a month

Seldom Never

2008 2.70% 2.80% 5.20% 13.40% 46.60%

2012 3.50% 3.60% 6.70% 15.80% 53.60%

Change

0.80% 0.80% 1.50% 2.40% 7.00%

7

CHANGE IN NONES, BASED ON RELIGIOUS SERVICE ATTENDANCE: 2008 TO 2012



CHANGE IN RELIGIOUS SERVICE ATTENDANCE: 2008 AND 2012

At least once a week

Almost every week

About once a month

Seldom Never

2008 33.70% 8.40% 11.70% 25.70% 19.80%

2012 32.60% 8.40% 11.70% 24.70% 21.30%



CHANGE IN NONES, BASED ON RELIGIOSITY INDEX: 2008 TO 2012


% Nones

Very Religious Americans

Moderately Religious American

Unreligious Americans

2008 2.40% 6.90% 38.00%

2012 3.10% 8.40% 45.50%

Change 0.70% 1.50% 7.50%


CHANGE IN RELIGIOSITY INDEX: 2008 AND 2012


% Nones

Very Religious Americans

Moderately Religious American

Unreligious Americans

2008 40.90% 28.70% 30.40%

2012 40.10% 28.90% 31.00%


CHANGE IN RELIGIOUS IDENTIFICATION: 2008 TO 2012


Protestant/Other

ChristianCatholic Mormon Jewish Muslim

Other non-

Christian

religion

Nones

2008 54.10% 24.30% 1.70% 1.80% 0.40% 3.10% 14.60%

2012 51.90% 23.30% 2.10% 1.70% 0.60% 2.60% 17.80%

Change -2.20% -1.00% 0.40% -0.10% 0.20% -0.50% 3.20%


FOUR MEASURES OF RELIGIOSITY BY AGE: 2012


18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 870%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Nones UnreligiousReligion Not Important Seldom/Never Attend


NONES BY AGE: 2008 AND 2012


181920212223242526272829303132333435363738394041424344454647484950515253545556575859606162636465666768697071727374757677787980818283848586878889

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2008 2012


INCREASE FROM 2008 TO 2012 IN % NONES, BY AGE


18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 870%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%


RELIGIOUS IDENTIFICATION BY AGE: 2012


181920212223242526272829303132333435363738394041424344454647484950515253545556575859606162636465666768697071727374757677787980818283848586878889

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Protestant/Other Christian Catholic Nones


EACH DOT REPRESENTS ONE AGE POINT

NONES AND PROTESTANTS: 2012


35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70%0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

% Protestant

% N

on

es


EACH DOT REPRESENTS ONE AGE POINT

NONES AND CATHOLICS


5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

% Catholic

% N

on

es


For further information, please contact: Dr. Frank NewportGallup, Inc.502 Carnegie Center, Suite 300Princeton, NJ 08540609 924 [email protected]

Details on Gallup Tracking methodology are available here: http://www.gallup.com/poll/163631/gallup-daily-tracking-methodology.aspx

http://www.gallup.com/poll/163631/gallup-daily-tracking-methodology.aspx

http://www.gallup.com/poll/163631/gallup-daily-tracking-methodology.aspx

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Pew forum on religion aug 8 Frank newport, gallup presentation v.2 revised aug 12

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