Sensible Transport SeminarAutonomous Vehicles, early Adopters, the Australia landscapeDate: June 2015Location: MelbournePresenter: Phil Carter

Structure

• About me

• What do we mean by Autonomous Vehicles?

• Why have Autonomous Vehicles?

• Implications

• Early Adopters

• How will Australia react?

Transport and Urban Planner

Worked with Google Facilities team in California

What do we mean by Autonomous vehicles?

Technology Timeline

level 1 1975

level 2 2000

level 4 2018+

level 3 2008

tech

nolo

gy

time

Brake AssistSteering AssistCruise Control

Combined Technologies(e.g. brake +

Steering + cruise)

On-road auto pilot

Full Journey Self-Drive

Stage 2 Technology

Stage 3 Technology

Stage 4 Technology

Technology

Why have Autonomous Vehicles?

What’s influencing the autonomous vehicle agenda?

The Key Issues….

“The economics of travel and ownership” – Ron Medford

“No new infrastructure, independent technology and market driven” – Paul Newman

“How we move in highly urban areas and mix pedestrian with driverless vehicles” – John Miles

“Convenience drives technology adoption. – Chris Luebkeman

Car Ownership

Autonomous vehicle technology is expected to lead to reduced vehicle

ownership

• Vehicle ownership to decline 50%

• Shared vehicles to replace 9-times the number of “traditional” vehicles”

• 40% Reduction in vehicle sales

Barclays Disruptive Mobility Report 2015

Cars Per Household

The average vehicle is only driven 56 minutes per day – that is, 4% of the time.

Barclays Disruptive Mobility Report 2015

AV Vehicle Types

1. Traditional automobiles with limited self-driving capabilities intended for personal or work use. This would primarily consist of “work” vehicles (i.e., pickups and vans), though may also include performance vehicles (i.e., muscle cars) which consumers desire to control (vs. turning control to the vehicle owners).

2. Family Autonomous Vehicles (FAVs) would be self-driving vehicles owned by a family in more or less the traditional way (i.e., taking members of family to/from work, school, and social activities). We would expect the luxury buyers to gravitate here, as it would promote a sense of status.

3. Shared Autonomous Vehicles (SAVs): We see these as the fleet of “robot taxis” similar to Uber, but with no need for the “dude” driving the car.

4. Pooled Shared Autonomous Vehicles (PSAVs): Similar to SAVs, butaccommodating multiple riders simultaneously – like UberPool without the driver

Source: Barclays’ Disruptive Mobility report 2015

Efficiency

Network efficiency

Pricing for Temporal Change

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Typical Peak

Spread Peak

Safety

Driver error accounts for or contributes to

93% of crashes

Car Manufacturers?

Car / Software Developers

Car Manufacturers:

Chrysler Video VIDEO

User Technology

Implications

Implications

Built form:Parking& Development

EconomicsInsuranceJobs

Costs

$-

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

$100,000

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

Autonomous Vehicle Hardware Cost

Transition to Driverless Vehicles

“Will driverless vehicles work side-by-side with traditional driven vehicles?”

• Yes! Likely to be a long transition – anticipate 20 years of co-existence.

• Driverless vehicles will start by driving some people some of the time in some of the places.

• Think 1900s. Carts, carriages, donkeys, horses and motorcars co-existed along with pedestrians – it is actually a question of when driverless vehicles become the norm not the exception.

Road Capacity

“Road capacity could increase anywhere between 250-500%”

Estimates for capacity increases:273% - 400% Increase

source: Patcharinee Tientrakool, Columbia University

Law & Licensing

“Automated Vehicles Are Probably Legal in the United States”

Bryant Walker-Smith, Stanford Law School fellow -Leading expert on how existing law would apply to self-

driving cars.

Law & Licensing

Ethics

Ethics

‘The Trolley Problem’On a narrow road, your autonomous car detects an imminent head-on crash with a non-robotic school bus full of kids. Your car swerves to avoid the crash, sending it into a tree, killing you in the process.

The automated car was stuck in a no-win situation and chose the lesser evil. This is probably the ‘right’ outcome.

But – shouldn’t you consciously consent to ride in something that may purposely cause your own death?

Ethics

‘The Trolley Problem’On a narrow road, your autonomous car detects an imminent head-on crash with a non-robotic school bus full of kids. Your car swerves to avoid the crash, sending it into a tree, killing you in the process.

The automated car was stuck in a no-win situation and chose the lesser evil. This is probably ‘right’.

It’s one thing when you, the driver, makes a choice to sacrifice yourself. But it’s quite another for a machine to make that decision for you involuntarily.

Early Adopters and the Implications for Australia

Service Transport

Interstate Freight- Melbourne to Sydney, Hume Hwy

Urban Logistics – Real Time Delivery- Fully automated delivery

Taxis / SAVs- Door-door transport on demand, low cost

Public Transport- Reduced operational cost (driverless buses)

PSAVs – Pooled Shared- Low density public transport (suburban)

Inter-modal Connectivity- Park and ride replacement (last mile)

DaimlerNevada, USA

Urban Delivery

Land Use and Car Reliance

Car Ownership

Autonomous vehicle technology is expected to lead to reduced vehicle

ownership

Australia imports around 1M cars per year at a value of $17B (2012)

Fuel consumption imports would lower?

Opportunities

• 360 degree Lidar system – an Australian invention

• South Australia leading the way to early adoption?

• Technology and Research Growth Area

• Australia: Predominantly car reliant cities

• Long distances between major cities

Date: June 2015Location: MelbourneAuthors: Phil Carter

Sensible Transport SeminarAutonomous Vehicles; Early Adopters, the Australia landscape