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Philippine Research & Forecast Report 2Q 2014

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Accelerating success. Research & Forecast Report Philippines 2Q 2014 Real estate: key driver for slower- than-expected economic growth e Philippine economy started at a slower pace, growing by 5.7% YoY in 1Q 2014. Real estate was identified as one of the top contributors in the quarter, expanding by 9.2%, while exports rebounded from its negative growth last year. While inflation increased by 110 basis points, domestic consumption remained to be buoyed by low interest rates and increasing OFW remittances. To establish momentum, the government plans on increasing public spending while adjusting key monetary policies to reach its target of 6.5 – 7.5% growth by year-end. Office Five new buildings were completed in the period, all of which are located outside the Makati CBD. Close to 130,000 sq m of new office space are delivered, with more than 270,000 sq m slated for completion by year-end. e lack of new office space in Makati CBD benefits other locations, particularly Fort Bonifacio, as it is set to capture a significant share in the office supply in the next three years. Overall vacancy in the Makati CBD decreased due to the fast take-up of Zuellig Building and V Corporate Center. As a result, office rents in the area established its highest increase in the last four quarters. Residential Two new projects were delivered in 2Q2014, amounting to 712 units. By end-2014, an additional 5,000 new units are expected for delivery, majority of which are located in the Makati CBD, Fort Bonifacio, and Ortigas Center. Residential vacancy in the Makati CBD eased in the period, decreasing by 50 basis points despite more unit owners deciding to offer units in the leasing market. Despite the relief, rental growth in the area remained stable. Hotel & Leisure Close to 900 hotel rooms are completed in 1H2014 with about 22% of the forecasted 4,015 rooms slated for delivery by the end of 2014. More projects are expected to be delivered in the next three years with an average of 3,700 rooms annually. While Entertainment City is seen to capture a lion’s share of the supply, more international brands are expanding their presence in various locations within Metro Manila, particularly the cities of Taguig, Pasay, and Quezon. Despite the increase in supply, hotel occupancy remained flat in FY 2013. e situation thereby put pressure on hotel room rates. Industrial Industrial supply slightly decreased in 1H2014, as some developers adjusted their land area applications with the Philippine Economic Zone Authority. Nonetheless, demand continued to be strong as vacancy rates in major industrial zones in Cavite, Laguna, and Batangas decreased significantly. Consequently, average land lease hold rates enjoyed a 21.4% increase while lease rates for warehouse and logistics facilities improved by 3.2%
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Page 1: Philippine Research & Forecast Report 2Q 2014

Accelerating success.

Research & Forecast Report

Philippines 2Q 2014

Real estate: key driver for slower-than-expected economic growth The Philippine economy started at a slower pace, growing by 5.7% YoY in 1Q 2014. Real estate was identified as one of the top contributors in the quarter, expanding by 9.2%, while exports rebounded from its negative growth last year. While inflation increased by 110 basis points, domestic consumption remained to be buoyed by low interest rates and increasing OFW remittances. To establish momentum, the government plans on increasing public spending while adjusting key monetary policies to reach its target of 6.5 – 7.5% growth by year-end.

OfficeFive new buildings were completed in the period, all of which are located outside the Makati CBD. Close to 130,000 sq m of new office space are delivered, with more than 270,000 sq m slated for completion by year-end. The lack of new office space in Makati CBD benefits other locations, particularly Fort Bonifacio, as it is set to capture a significant share in the office supply in the next three years. Overall vacancy in the Makati CBD decreased due to the fast take-up of Zuellig Building and V Corporate Center. As a result, office rents in the area established its highest increase in the last four quarters.

ResidentialTwo new projects were delivered in 2Q2014, amounting to 712 units. By end-2014, an additional 5,000 new units are expected for delivery, majority of which are located in the Makati CBD, Fort Bonifacio, and Ortigas Center. Residential vacancy in the Makati CBD eased in the period, decreasing by 50 basis points despite more unit owners deciding to offer units in the leasing market. Despite the relief, rental growth in the area remained stable.

Hotel & LeisureClose to 900 hotel rooms are completed in 1H2014 with about 22% of the forecasted 4,015 rooms slated for delivery by the end of 2014. More projects are expected to be delivered in the next three years with an average of 3,700 rooms annually. While Entertainment City is seen to capture a lion’s share of the supply, more international brands are expanding their presence in various locations within Metro Manila, particularly the cities of Taguig, Pasay, and Quezon. Despite the increase in supply, hotel occupancy remained flat in FY 2013. The situation thereby put pressure on hotel room rates.

IndustrialIndustrial supply slightly decreased in 1H2014, as some developers adjusted their land area applications with the Philippine Economic Zone Authority. Nonetheless, demand continued to be strong as vacancy rates in major industrial zones in Cavite, Laguna, and Batangas decreased significantly. Consequently, average land lease hold rates enjoyed a 21.4% increase while lease rates for warehouse and logistics facilities improved by 3.2%

Page 2: Philippine Research & Forecast Report 2Q 2014

2 Research & Forecast Report | 2Q 2014 | Philippines | Colliers International

Economy off to a slow start, grows at 5.7%The Philippine economy started 2014 at a slower pace than last year, growing by 5.7% in 1Q 2014, due to the lingering effects of Typhoon Haiyan. While it was expected that government spending would increase in the period to aid in rehabilitation efforts, the Philippine Statistical Authority reported a meager 2% growth, significantly lower than 7.7% growth reported in FY 2013. Nonetheless, the country’s growth was the second highest in Southeast Asia, trailing behind Malaysia (+6.2%), but ahead of Indonesia (+5.2%), Singapore (+5.1%), Vietnam (+5.0%), and Thailand (-0.6%).

The economy benefitted from strong performances in the services and industrial sectors, particularly in mining and quarrying (+12.8%), real estate, renting, and business activities (+9.2%), and transport, storage and communications (+8.9%). Exports posted higher growth rates (+12.6%) after last year’s lackluster performance as the manufacturing and business process outsourcing (BPO) sectors expanded to service increasing demand from overseas. Consequently, imports also rose (+8.0%) to sustain a more active export sector while catering to the increasing domestic consumption base. While the inflation rate increased in April - June 2014 (4.3%), domestic consumption remained a vital contributor to the economy aided by low lending rates (4.4 - 6.8%) and increasing OFW remittances (+5.7% YoY).

The government is taking necessary actions to ensure macroeconomic stability in the medium term by increasing their expenditures while maintaining sound monetary policies. In June, the Central Bank maintained its policy rates at its lowest levels; however, SDA rates increased by 25 basis points. The measure was taken to offset inflation risks due to ample liquidity in the market. Meanwhile, several big ticket infrastructure projects are expected to be bid for in the Public-Private Partnership Program by year-end to spur further economic expansion. As a result, the government is confident that the 6.5 - 7.5% annual GDP growth is attainable.

Economic Growth Indicatorsa

Economic Indicators2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q14

Gross National Product 6.10 6.00 6.50 8.40 3.20 6.40 7.50 7.60

Gross Domestic Product 6.60 4.20 1.10 7.60 3.90 6.80 7.20 5.70

Personal Consumption Expenditure

4.60 3.70 2.30 3.40 6.10 6.60 5.70 5.80

Government Expenditure 6.90 0.30 10.90 4.00 1.00 15.50 7.70 2.00

Capital Formation (0.50) 23.40 (8.70) 31.60 8.10 (5.30) 29.90 7.70

Exports 6.70 (2.70) (7.80) 21.00 (4.20) 8.50 (1.10) 12.60

Imports 1.70 1.60 (8.10) 22.50 0.20 4.90 5.40 8.00

AHFFb 4.70 3.20 (0.70) (0.20) 2.70 2.80 1.10 0.90

Industry 5.80 4.80 (1.90) 11.60 2.30 7.30 9.30 5.50

Services 7.60 4.00 3.40 7.20 5.10 7.40 7.20 6.80

Average Inflationc 2.90 8.30 4.10 3.90 4.60 3.20 3.00 4.10

Budget Deficit (PHP Billion) (12.40) (68.10) (298.50) (314.40) (197.70) (242.80) (164.10) (84.10)

PHP:US$1 (Average) 46.10 44.70 47.60 45.10 43.31 42.09 42.45 44.87

Average 91-day T-Bill Rates 3.40 5.20 4.00 3.70 1.37 1.58 0.32 1.05 Source: Philippine Statistical Authority, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, Bureau of Treasury a at constant 2000 prices

bAgriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishingc at constant 2006 prices

Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas

OFW Remittancesa

a as of May 2014

Page 3: Philippine Research & Forecast Report 2Q 2014

3 Research & Forecast Report | 2Q 2014 | Philippines | Colliers International

Land values appreciate despite slower growthDespite slower-than-expected economic growth in 1Q 2014, land values continued to increase in 2Q 2014. Land values in the Makati CBD appreciated by 3.6%, with an average price of PHP 366,425 per sq m, while land values in Fort Bonifacio increased by 2.0%, amounting to an average price of PHP 271,290 per sq m. A similar growth rate was reported in Ortigas, with land values amounting to PHP 149,365 per sq m. Colliers forecasts that both Makati CBD and Fort Bonifacio land values will appreciate by 8.4% by next year, while Ortigas land values are expected to grow by 5.7%.

Total residential licenses remain stable after surge in high rise residential applicationsLicenses to sell issued by HLURB increased by 22.3% YoY from January to June 2014, due to double-digit growth in memorial park (+74.3%) and high-rise residential (+26.6%) project applications. Residential projects were relatively stable during the period, increasing by 1.5% due to notable decreases in the socialized (-5.1%), low cost (-14.4%), and mid-income (-11.8%) housing segments. The decline in the critical housing segments may lead to a delay in reaching the preliminary target of the government of providing one million housing units by 2016. Meanwhile, the number of new commercial condominium licenses decreased by 46% to 662 units during the period.

Comparative Land Values (Php / sqm)LOCATION 1Q 2014 2Q 2014 % CHANGE (QoQ) 2Q 2015F % CHANGE (YoY)

Makati CBD 328,110-379,480 340,085-392,765 3.57 356,175-438,200 8.40

Ortigas Center 111,345-181,575 113,570-185,160 1.98 122,935-192,680 5.65

Fort Bonifacio 215,755-316,340 220,070-322,510 1.97 237,800-350,380 8.40

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

Land Values

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

HLURB Licenses

Source: Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board

HLURB Licenses to SellSEGMENT JAN - JUN '13 JAN - JUN '14 % CHANGE YoY

Socialized Housing 19,293 18,311 -5.1%

Low Cost Housing 27,151 23,252 -14.4%

Mid Income Housing 13,548 11,949 -11.8%

High Rise Residential 29,310 37,095 26.6%

Commercial Condominium 1,216 662 -45.6%

Farmlot - -

Memorial Park 37,542 65,426 74.3%

Industrial Subdivision 94 93 -1.1%

Commercial Subdivision 81 17 -79.0%

Total (Philippines) 128,235 156,805 22.3%

Source: Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

Page 4: Philippine Research & Forecast Report 2Q 2014

4 Research & Forecast Report | 2Q 2014 | Philippines | Colliers International

OfficeLack of new office supply in Makati CBD benefits Fort BonifacioApproximately 480,000 sq m of new office space is slated for delivery by year-end, with close to 45% already introduced as of 1H 2014. In 2Q 2014, five office buildings comprised of almost 130,000 sq m of office space were completed. The first three buildings, Cyberscape Alpha (35,440 sq m) and Beta (32,750 sq m), and SM Cyber West Avenue (20,430 sq m), cater to BPO operations, while RCBC Savings Bank Corporate Center (28,160 sq m) and Marco Polo Manila Offices (7,770 sq m) are geared towards traditional office users.

The dearth of new office supply in the Makati CBD provides opportunities for other locations to capture a significant share of the Metro Manila market. Fort Bonifacio has been an evident beneficiary of such a scenario. From 30,000 sq m of inventory in 2005, Fort Bonifacio office supply currently stands at 957,000 sq m. By 2017, Colliers estimates that Fort Bonifacio will surpass Ortigas Center as the largest CBD after the Makati CBD with close to 1.6 million sq m of office space, an increase of 66%. Emerging CBDs are also on the radar, as Aseana City in the Reclamation Area and Vertis North in Quezon City are expected to contribute a significant amount of office space, further reducing Makati CBD’s share of the market. This unprecedented level of new supply, an average of 470,000 sq m annually in the next two years, is driven by strong demand coming from the BPO industry and multinational firms looking to expand their operations in the country.

Office demand accelerates as Makati CBD vacancy declines to 2%After a sluggish take-up in the previous quarter, overall vacancy in the Makati CBD significantly decreased by half, from 4.2% to 2.1% due to strong take-up in available office spaces. All office grades experienced a decrease in vacancy with Premium and Grade B offices contributing the highest take-up during the period, due to lease transactions in Zuellig Building and V Corporate Center. Similarly, Grade A vacancy decreased to 6.8%. In the next twelve months, Colliers projects overall vacancy to decrease further to 2.0% due to continued strong demand in the area.

Forecast New Office Supply (Net Usable Area)LOCATION END OF 2013* 2014F 2015F 2016F TOTAL

Makati CBD 2,827,865 22,802 - - 2,850,668

Ortigas 1,160,350 125,999 75,072 17,378 1,378,799

Fort Bonifacio 929,810 69,529 119,096 250,783 1,369,218

Eastwood 300,264 - - - 300,264

Alabang 305,707 75,036 - 16,200 396,943

Other Locations** 1,027,220 187,702 255,313 202,365 1,672,600

Total 6,551,217 481,068 449,481 486,726 7,918,492

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research* revised figures

** Manila, Pasay, Mandaluyong, Quezon City and other fringe locations

Makati CBD Comparative Office Vacancy Rates (%)1Q 2014 2Q 2014 2Q 2015F

Premium 1.89 0.56 0.22

Grade A 7.2 6.79 4.3

Grade B & Below 3.77 1.01 1.71

All Grades 4.23 2.14 2.03

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research * revised figures

Makati CBD vs. Metro Manila Office Stock

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

Makati CBD Office Supply and Demand

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

Page 5: Philippine Research & Forecast Report 2Q 2014

5 Research & Forecast Report | 2Q 2014 | Philippines | Colliers International

Office rents rise, post highest growth in four quartersRental rates in the Makati CBD were considerably higher than in the last quarter due to the lack of available office space. Premium rents escalated by 4.0% QoQ, costing an average of PHP 1,100 per sq m. Grade A rents recorded a 3.6% QoQ increase, with an average rent of PHP 818 per sq m. Meanwhile, Grade B rents posted the highest increase at 8.9% QoQ, resulting in an average rent of PHP 615 per sq m. Colliers predicts that rental rates in the area will appreciate between 6 and 8% over the next twelve months.

Capital value growth escalates but continues to lag behind rental rate growthCapital values of offices in the Makati CBD benefitted from a significant increase in rents this quarter. Average capital values for Premium buildings grew by 3.3% QoQ, with an average value of PHP 146,280 per sq m. A similar growth rate was recorded for Grade A buildings at 3.4% QoQ. As such, a typical Grade A building would cost PHP 93,190 per sq m on average. On the other hand, Grade B capital values amounted to PHP 66,595 per sq m, a 5.0% increase QoQ. Colliers predicts capital values for all grades in the district to appreciate by 5 - 6% by next year.

Comparative Rental Rates (Php/sq m/month)

Makati CBD (based on net usable area)GRADE 1Q 2014 2Q 2014 % CHANGE (QoQ) 2Q 2015F %CHANGE (YoY)

Premium 890 - 1,225 930 - 1,270 4.02 990 - 1,360 6.91

Grade A 610 - 970 650 - 985 3.61 695 - 1,055 6.87

Grade B 475 - 655 515 - 715 8.86 550 - 770 6.92

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

Comparative Office Capital Values (Php / sq m)

Makati CBD (based on net usable area)GRADE 1Q 2014 2Q 2014 % CHANGE (QoQ) 2Q 2015F %CHANGE (YoY)

Premium 137,960 - 145,150 141,680 - 150,885 3.34 148,820 - 158,360 5.00

Grade A 75,965 - 105,725 77,995 - 109,820 3.37 82,195 - 115,795 5.42

Grade B 53,885 - 73,010 55,800 - 77,390 4.96 58,600 - 80,925 4.76

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

Makati CBD Office Capital Values

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

Page 6: Philippine Research & Forecast Report 2Q 2014

6 Research & Forecast Report | 2Q 2014 | Philippines | Colliers International

ResidentialMajor CBDs to house substantial residential supply by 2017Out of the expected 7,400 units to be completed by year-end, only 30% have been delivered as of 1H 2014, leading to a total new supply of 2,210 units. This quarter, two projects were completed, amounting to 712 units. The projects include Edades Tower and Garden Villas (441 units) in Rockwell Center and Sonata Private Residences Tower 2 (271 units) in Ortigas Center.

Makati CBD vacancy relaxes, trims down to 10.4%The leasing market in the Makati CBD experienced some relief in 2Q 2014, as overall vacancy decreased slightly by 50 basis points to 10.4%, due to increasing occupancy rates in Grade A and Grade B units. On the other hand, Premium unit vacancy increased to 5.3% due to some unit owner-users deciding to vacate their units and offer them in the leasing market. Meanwhile, multi-bedroom units in the Premium projects continued to enjoy virtually full occupancy in the period. Overall vacancy in the Makati CBD is expected to rise to 11.7% in the next twelve months, as more than 3,500 units will be available in the market.

With more than 30,000 units expected to be delivered by 2017, total expected inventory in the five major submarkets that Colliers monitors will amount to 90,440 units. The three major CBDs – Makati CBD, Fort Bonifacio, and Ortigas Center – are the preferred locations for these developments, as developers attract buyers by providing a substantial number of smaller unit cuts in these projects. While the buyer’s motivations are mainly for investment purposes, a handful of units are targeted towards end-user and expatriate requirements with the hope of mitigating the lack of multi-bedroom units.

Makati CBD Residential Vacancy

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

Forecast Residential New SupplyLOCATION END-2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F TOTAL

Makati CBD 17,656 1,410 3,652 2,017 1,485 26,220

Rockwell 3,718 441 - - 346 4,505

Fort Bonifacio 17,585 3,142 4,386 4,895 2,979 32,987

Ortigas 11,921 1,711 2,756 1,227 573 18,188

Eastwood 6,830 718 - 988 - 8,536

Total 57,710 7,422 10,794 9,127 5,383 90,436

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

Makati CBD Comparative Residential Vacancy Rates (%)1Q 2014 2Q 2014 2Q 2015F

Luxury 4.6 5.3

Others 11.7 11.1

All Grades 10.9 10.4 11.7

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research * revised figures

Makati CBD Residential Stock

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

Page 7: Philippine Research & Forecast Report 2Q 2014

7 Research & Forecast Report | 2Q 2014 | Philippines | Colliers International

Residential rents remain stableWhile vacancy in the Makati CBD rebounded, rental rate growth for premium three-bedroom units was relatively stable, growing by 1.1% QoQ. This translates to an average monthly rent of PHP 820 per sq m, or PHP 205,000 for a 250 sq m unit. Rental rates in Fort Bonifacio grew at the same rate, with an average rate of PHP 825 per sq m. Premium rents for both locations are expected to grow by 4 to 6% in the next twelve months, with both locations reaching parity in their rental rates. Meanwhile, premium rental rates in Rockwell amounted to PHP 885 per sq m, growing by 1.0% from the previous quarter. Rental rate growth is projected at 4 to 5% by next year.

Makati CBD, Rockwell, Fort Bonifacio Prime 3BR Units Residential Rents

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

Metro Manila Residential Condominiums

Comparative Luxury 3BR Rental Rates (PHP / sq m / month)LOCATION 1Q 2014 2Q 2014 % CHANGE (QoQ) 2Q 2015F %CHANGE (YoY)

Makati CBD 555 - 1,065 560 - 1,080 1.12 585 - 1,140 5.12

Rockwell 725 - 1,025 740 - 1,030 1.03 770 - 1,080 4.60

Fort Bonifacio 610 - 1,020 625 - 1,025 1.10 650 - 1,075 4.73

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

Comparative Residential Lease Rates (High-Rise)

3BR, Semi Furnished to Fully FurnishedLOCATION MINIMUM AVERAGE MAXIMUM

Apartment Ridge/Roxas Triangle

Rental Range (Php/month) 120,000 170,000 275,000

Average Size (sq m) 210 285 330

Salcedo Village Rental Range (Php/month) 120,000 140,000 160,000

Average Size (sq m) 185 195 210

Legaspi Village Rental Range (Php/month) 160,000 220,000 250,000

Average Size (sq m) 185 220 295

Rockwell Rental Range (Php/month) 130,000 170,000 210,000

Average Size (sq m) 140 200 290

Fort Bonifacio Rental Range (Php/month) 100,000 200,000 250,000

Average Size (sq m) 115 250 320 Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

Page 8: Philippine Research & Forecast Report 2Q 2014

8 Research & Forecast Report | 2Q 2014 | Philippines | Colliers International

Metro Manila Residential Condominiums

Comparative Luxury 3BR Capital Values (PHP / sqm)LOCATION 1Q 2014 2Q 2014 % CHANGE (QoQ) 2Q 2015F %CHANGE (YoY)

Makati CBD 91,715 - 181,350 93,000 - 183,165 1.13 96,805 - 192,870 4.89

Rockwell 110,240 - 170,115 111,345 - 172,070 1.09 113,810 - 177,200 2.68

Fort Bonifacio 103,200 - 163,150 104,400 - 165,465 1.32 108,040 - 171,400 3.55

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

Capital values rises on pace with rental growthCapital values in premium locations grew on pace with rental rate growth during the period. Average values in the Makati CBD appreciated by 1.1% QoQ to PHP138,085 per sq m while Fort Bonifacio values increased by 1.3% QoQ to PHP134,935 per sq m. On the other hand, Rockwell capital values amounted to PHP141,705 per sq m, growing by 1.1% from the previous period. For all locations, Colliers expects annual capital value growth somewhere between 3 and 5%.

Makati CBD Comparative Residential Lease Rates for Exclusive Villages (Php / month)

3BR - 4BR, Unfurnished to Semi-FurnishedVILLAGE LOW HIGH

Forbes Park 300,000 500,000

Dasmarinas Village 200,000 400,000

Urdaneta Village 250,000 350,000

Bel-air Village 150,000 250,000

San Lorenzo Village 100,000 200,000

Ayala Alabang Village 85,000 200,000

Magallanes Village 70,000 150,000

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

Capital Values

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

Page 9: Philippine Research & Forecast Report 2Q 2014

9 Research & Forecast Report | 2Q 2014 | Philippines | Colliers International

Hotel & LeisureMore hotel brands enter PH; supply to swell two-fold by 2017By the end of 2014, approximately 4,015 new hotel rooms are expected in Metro Manila, bringing the hotel room stock to 21,532 (+22.9% YoY). Only 20% of the projected hotel rooms were delivered in 1H 2014, brought about by four projects, namely Tune Hotels Ortigas (182 rooms), Azumi Boutique Hotel (187 rooms), Marco Polo Ortigas (313 rooms) and Citadines Salcedo Makati (215 rooms). The bulk of the inventory will be delivered in the latter half of the year, with close to 1,660 rooms located in Paranaque City. While 75% of the rooms will be located in Entertainment City, two new hotel projects will be located outside the area. One particular project, Go Hotels Paranaque (199 rooms), is expected to attract budget travellers who want to temporarily stay near the airport terminals.

From 2014 to 2017, an average of 3,700 rooms will delivered annually in Metro Manila. While 56% of the rooms will be located in Entertainment City, a substantial number will be constructed in other locations such as Pasay City, Quezon City and Taguig City. The three locations alone will contribute 3,600 rooms that will cater to business travellers, with the majority of the hotels to be operated by international brands. As Fort Bonifacio rises into dominance as the next business district after Makati, international brands such as Shangrila, Grand Hyatt, and Ascott have established their presence in the area. Furthermore, Sheraton, Hilton, and Conrad will be locating in Pasay City in anticipation of the influx of travellers to Aseana City and Newport City. Meanwhile, the emergence of hotel developments in Quezon City is seen as a strategy to boost business activities in the area, with the likes of Microtel, Ayala Hotels, and Novotel operating soon in the emerging business areas of Cubao, Vertis North and UP Technohub.

Occupancy remains flat despite record number of tourist arrivalsThe Department of Tourism reported 4.7 million foreign tourist arrivals in the country in 2013, a 9.6% increase from the 4.3 million tourist arrivals in 2012. Despite the surge in tourist arrivals, the 2013 average occupancy rate in Metro Manila remained flat at 67%, while the average length of stay was unchanged at 2.48 nights. As of May 2014, foreign tourist arrivals grew slightly at 2.5% YoY to 2.1 million. If the trend continues, Colliers estimates that the average hotel occupancy rate will decrease to 63% by year end, as the overwhelming level of hotel room supply in the latter half of the year will provide greater accommodation options to travellers visiting the country, thereby creating greater competition among hotel operators.

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

Forecast on New Hotel Room Supply

Metro Manila Hotel Room Stock

Source: Department of Tourism, Colliers International Philippines Research

Page 10: Philippine Research & Forecast Report 2Q 2014

10 Research & Forecast Report | 2Q 2014 | Philippines | Colliers International

Occupancy and new supply pressure hotel ratesThe substantial number of new hotel rooms in Metro Manila coupled by the occupancy performance the previous year affected hotel room rates as of 1H 2014. Average published rates for five-star rooms enjoyed a 4.8% HoH increase, to US$349 per night, while rates for three-star rooms increased by 8.1% HoH to US$174. In contrast, average four-star room rates declined significantly by 13.2% HoH to US$237. This can be seen as a response of hotel operators to falling occupancy rates registered at four-star hotels in 2013 (60.1%), aimed at attracting a substantial number of travellers to stay in their rooms. Corporate rates were also affected, as rates for four-star and three-star rooms decreased by 26.3 and 16.7%, respectively. Meanwhile, corporate rates for five-star rooms increased by 3.8% HoH, to US$244 per night.

Philippine Industrial Supply Stock by Region of Highest Supply (Manufacturing)a

Source: Philippine Economic Zone Authority a PEZA accredited economic zonesas of March 2014

Industrial Supply Stock (Manufacturing)a

REGION IV 2H2013HECTARES 1H2014 CHANGE (HoH)

Batangas 3,039.45 2,862.77 -5.8%

Cavite 2,123.87 2,123.87 0.0%

Laguna 1,411.03 1,421.14 0.7%

Total 6,574.35 6,407.78 -2.5%

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

Source: Department of Tourism, Colliers International Philippines Research

Visitor Arrivals

IndustrialIndustrial supply shrinks in Cavite, Laguna, and BatangasAs of 1H 2014, the land area of manufacturing economic zones in the Philippines registered with the Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA), decreased slightly by 0.2% HoH to 55,685 ha due to adjustments in applications made by industrial park developers in Batangas and Laguna. While Carmelray Industrial Park and First Philippine Industrial Park increased their land area application by 22.1 ha, Light Industry & Science Park IV decreased their application by 73%, resulting in a total of 68.9 ha covered by PEZA. As a result, supply stock in Cavite, Laguna, and Batangas shrunk by 2.5% HoH, to 6,408 ha.

Metro Manila

Average Hotel Room RatesPUBLISHED RATES (US$) CORPORATE RATES (US$)

CLASS 2H2013 1H2014 2013 2014

5-Star 333 349 235 244

4-Star 273 237 224 165

3-Star 161 174 138 115Source: Department of Tourism, Colliers International Philippines Research

Page 11: Philippine Research & Forecast Report 2Q 2014

11 Research & Forecast Report | 2Q 2014 | Philippines | Colliers International

Strong demand drives vacancy to declineThe decrease in land area did not deter demand, as the average industrial vacancy rate in Cavite, Laguna and Batangas declined by close to 3.0% in 1H 2014, to 9.8%. While vacancies in all locations decreased, Batangas posted the highest decline of 26.6% HoH, to 12.4%. Batangas benefitted from existing infrastructure critical for manufacturing operations, such as an international port and expressways connected to Metro Manila. Cavite industrial vacancy also decreased substantially by 290 basis points, to 13.4%, despite higher vacancies recorded in Suntrust Ecotown Tanza. Laguna remains highly preferred as its vacancy reached 5.6%, the lowest among three locations.

Industrial rates experience steady growthAverage land leasehold rates in Cavite, Laguna, and Batangas continue to improve significantly during the period. From an average of PHP35 per sq m per month last period, land leasehold rates increased by 21.4% to PHP43 per sq m. Average lease rates for warehouses and logistics facilities likewise escalated by 3.2% HoH, to PHP180 per sq m. Increasing manufacturing activities in the country would result in lease rates for warehouses growing from 6 to 8% by next year. Meanwhile, average land values in Cavite, Laguna, and Batangas increased by 3.1% HoH to PHP4,020 per sq m. Colliers projects land values to appreciate by 5 to 6% next year, as strong demand for industrial land would put pressure on prices.

OFW remittances drive consumer spending to increaseWith OFW remittances growing by 5.7% YoY as of May 2014, strong domestic consumption was sustained despite a 1.1% increase in inflation during the first quarter. Allocations for basic commodities continued to increase, with food, housing, water and electricity growing by an average of 4.6%. Spending on leisure activities, such as recreation and culture, and restaurants and hotels, had more pronounced growth in 1Q 2014, at 6.4 and 7.3% respectively. In addition, data from the Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines (CAMPI) reported a 69.2% overall increase in car sales as of June 2014. Passenger car sales almost doubled with 54,846 units, a 97.0% YoY change from the 27,838 units sold in the same period last year. This scenario is attributed to increasing incomes of the typical Filipino consumer, allowing him to gain greater purchasing power for other products and services.

Region IV Industrial Land Values

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

Industrial Vacancy Rates (Manufacturing)a

REGION IV 2H2013 1H2014

Batangas 16.86 12.37

Cavite 16.27 13.37

Laguna 6.02 5.56

Totalb 12.77 9.79

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

a PEZA accredited economic zonesb Revised and Rebased

Industrial Supply Stock (Manufacturing)a

REGION IV 2H2013(PHP/SQ M/MO)

1H2014(PHP/SQ M/MO)

Lease Hold (Land) 35.00 42.50

Lease Rates (SFBb) 174.50 180.00

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

a PEZA accredited economic zones

Consumer Spending Growth Rate

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

Page 12: Philippine Research & Forecast Report 2Q 2014

Copyright © 2014 Colliers International.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.

485 offices in 63 countries on 6 continentsUnited States: 146 Canada: 44 Latin America: 25 Asia Pacific: 186 EMEA: 84

$2.1billion in annual revenue

1.46billion square feet under management

15,800professionals and staff

Primary Author:Romeo Arahan Research Analyst | Philippines+63 2 888 [email protected]

Contributors:Julius Guevara | DirectorDavid A. Young | Managing Director

Colliers International | Philippines10F Tower 2 RCBC Plaza Ayala Avenue cor. Sen. Gil Puyat AvenueMakati City | Philippines

TEL +63 2 888 9988


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