Philippines

01 December 2006Typhoon Durian has killed at least 146 people in the Philippines and authorities say hundreds more victims may be found in stricken areas cut off by the storm.

Typhoon Durian slammed into the central and northern Philippines Thursday with sustained winds of 150 kilometers an hour.

• extreme cold• deep inversion (2.92-0.7=2.2 km)• low Td• light wind• clear, sunny

Stony Plain 12Z Wed 29 Nov. 2006

Dec 1: Weather discussion …Wed 29th into Fri 1st Dec

We will see a transition from extreme cold to a moderate spell – probably brief!

Heat island

ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 7:00 AM CST WED NOV. 29

FOR ALBERTA… WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN EFFECT… AS VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR LINGERS OVER THE PROVINCE. WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY OVERNIGHT AS STRONG WESTERLY WINDS STARTS MIXING DOWN WARMER AIR ALOFT

24h prog shows incursion of westerly flow

Respite will be brief?48h prog – back to N flow

GEM progs from 12Z Wed(500 mb height & vorticity)

Coldest air pushed away/moderated

But back again

GEM progs from 12Z Wed(sfc press & 1000-500 thickness)

Wed Nov 29, 08GMT

GEMREG CUD BE A BIT FAST WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS OVR WRN RGNS AFTER MID PD

Edmontonthknss=513 dam

• freezing contour loops along coast

• how did it get that way?...

CMC 700 mb analysis, 12Z Mon 27 Nov.06

• this upper low hauled the continental air out to the coast… at Vancouver Int’l Airport (on coast) temp dropped to -11.5oC at 21LST Nov 28

Edmonton 292 dam

CMC 700 mb analysis, 12Z Wed 29 Nov. 2006

• Gulf of Alaska low pushing in the moist, milder air

Wed Nov 29 22 GMT… ERN PAC AND WRN RGNS.. SFC TEMPS TO WARM UP SMWHT OVR SWRN PRAIRIES DAY2. WITH S/W TROF MOVG TO SWRN BC TONIGHT, WLY FLO ALFT WILL INSTALL ACRSROCKIES ALLOWING FOR QUITE SIG LEE TROF TO SHOW UP THRU SWRN ALTA AND FOR STG-SVR CHINOOK WNDS TO SHOW UP ALREADY TONIGHT AND PERSISTING TOMORROW. COLD AMS OVR PRAIRIES WILL HWVR ONLY ALLOW FOR FLRYS THRU PRAIRIES WITH SNOW AMNTS NOT EXCEEDING 5 CM FOR THE PD WITH THIS SYSTEM.

EC 7AM CST THURSDAY NOV.30 PRAIRIES...LOW PRESSURE AREA NR YEG THIS MORNING WILL TRACK SEWD ACROSS SRN SK TODAY AND INTO SRN MB FOR FRIDAY. WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING ABOUT 2 TO 4 CM OF SNOW ALONG ITS PATH.

AB..STRONG WINDS IN THE SOUTH… ARE BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCING VISIBILITIES. GUSTS UP TO 110KM/H HAVE BEEN REPORTED.

Thurs 30 Nov.Thurs 30 Nov.

• milder, overcast morning• shovelled a few cm of snow• largely clear by 1300 or earlier

ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CST THURS NOV 30.

AB..STRONG WINDS IN THE SOUTH SHOULD DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. IN PINCHER CREEK AND CARDSTON WINDS ARE GENERATING BLOWING SNOW WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES. GUSTS UP TO 90KM/H WERE REPORTED AROUND 18Z.

CONVECTIVE BAND DEVELOPED CENTRAL ALBERTA EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THRU THE PROVINCE WITH LOCAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 CM BEING REPORTED.

• fierce pressure gradient in the SW

• new low likely to swing the cold air back south?

• little spot of mild air near Edmonton• much colder on all sides• isotherms difficult to untangle

CMC 850 mb analysis, 12Z Thurs 30 Nov.

• thickness ridge (trowal) easily seen in lee of Rockies• strong SW current• 24 hr prog did well

CMC 500 mb analysis, 12Z Thurs 30 Nov.GEM prog from 12Z Wed

1) www.flightplanning.navcanada.ca/

2) Select ASEP

3) Departure CYVR, Enroute CYLW

4) Destination CYEG

5) Select all ASEP products (base of page)

6) Submit

7) View ASEP products (base of page)

8) Select Enroute air temperature

Wed mng. • super cold

Wed evg. • warming aloft - not much at gnd

Thurs mng.• little change aloft • inversion sustained, but even so• warming below 800 mb

Thurs evg. • cooled 15C at 500 mb• cooled 10C at 700 mb• little change at 850 mb• surface inversion has mixed out (wind)• ie. much warmer at gnd

This mng. (Friday) • cooled about 10C below 850 mb

GEM 24 hr progvalid 12Z Thurs

Sfc press & 1000-500 thicknessSfc press & 1000-500 thickness

CMC analysis 12Z Thurs(ie. GEM 0hr prog)

GEM 24 hr progvalid 12Z Fri

• cold air to return for 12Z Fri?• thanks to the new low

24 hr prog vld 12Z Fri

CMC analysis 12Z Fri

• cold air has returned• prog good• much colder in N. Ab

Edm 513 dam

CMC 850 mb analysis, 12Z Fri 1 Dec. 2006

• wind, but not much advection• shouldn’t get colder in 12 hr term• radiative cooling over night

-15

• flow off coast onto C. and S Alberta• pushes back the coldest air• if new sfc low strengthens might bring back cold next week?• hopefully not if that 500 mb pattern persists

48 hr forecast48 hr forecast

Edm 534 dam

• C. Ab still in flow off coast• cold air back in Manitoba where it belongs

144 hr (6 day) 144 hr (6 day) forecastforecast - GEM global runGEM global run

Edm thickness 528 dam:528 – 513 7 degrees warmer than today