Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd 19 August 2011...

(MICA (P) 027/12/2010) Ref No: RM2011_0161

Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd 19 August 2011

Singapore � The benchmark Straits Times Index was down 3.57 points to 2,824.96. The

market opened, traded higher and slipped to negative territory again. We maintain our views that FSSTI chart remains bias to the downside and breaching the 2,800 support is likely to incite fresh shorts. European and US markets slipped as much as 6% and 4% respectively in previous trading sessions. If FSSTI can still open above 2,800, successfully test the low and still close above the support despite this bloodshed in the Western market, it shows good strength and pending the developments in the next few trading sessions, may be encouraging for bargain hunters. But if market opens (does not matter above or below support) and closes below 2,800, we are possibly in a new down leg and it may be an appropriate strategy to pick stocks in weaker sectors for shorting.

� On the US economic front, 3 sets of data peeved investors further. Respondents to the monthly Philly Fed survey said business conditions had worsened in late July and early August. 47% said new orders declined, while more than a third said shipments decreased. Philly Fed factory index reported a 34 point drop. Jobless claims also increased by 9,000 to 408,000 despite dipping below 400,000 last week. Claims have been at or above 399,000 for 19 straight weeks. The National Association of Realtors said sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.67 million.

Close +/- % +/-FSSTI 2824.96 -3.57 -0.13P/E (x) 8.07P/Bv (x) 1.38

4.14Dividend Yield

STRAITS TIMES INDEX

2800

3000

3200

3400

8/18 11/18 2/18 5/18 8/18

Source: Bloomberg

Hong Kong � The HSI erased earlier gains, and closed near psychological level—20000 due to

the renewed concern that PBOC will further boost its interest rate in near term; while the lackluster sales forecast of US computer supplier further took a toll on the confidence of economy growth. The HSI and HSCEI slumped 272.76 and 217.65 to 20016.27 and 10718.46 respectively. Market volume was 72.18 billion only.

� As expected, investors are focus on the stalling economic growth and systematic risk instead of past corporate earnings. In our view, despite of the relatively strong fundamentals of China economy growth, we are wary of the ripples from overseas as export still contributes a considerable proportion of China GDP growth. Therefore, we still recommend investors to increase their cash level whenever dead cat bounce occurs. Technically, once the HSI penetrated below 19500 a precipitous collapse is highly possible.

� We peg resistance for the HSI at 20000 and support at 19400.

Close +/- % +/-HSI INDEX 20016.27 -272.76 -1.34P/E (x) 9.60P/Bv (x) 1.48

3.28Dividend Yield

HANG SENG INDEX

19000

20000

21000

22000

23000

24000

25000

26000

8/18 11/18 2/18 5/18 8/18

Source: Bloomberg

Regional Market Focus 19 August 2011

2

Thailand � Thai stocks faced wild swings on Thu as the composite SET index stayed in the

green throughout the morning session but gave up earlier gains in the afternoon. However, the Thai stock market continued to outperform its regional peers as buying in bank shares lent strong support to the market. Foreign investors turned net sellers of Thai equities worth Bt668.92m on Thu.

� External uncertainties would continue to pressure the Thai stock market to the downside today as global economic worries remain a major cause for concern after Morgan Stanley lowered the outlook for global growth and said the US and the euro zone are dangerously close to recession. US economic data also turned out worsen than expected such as factory activity, inflation and jobless claims. Stock markets in Asia also opened sharply lower in early Fri trade. We also expect the composite SET index to follow regional bourses lower but we believe the pace of correction in the Thai market may be smaller than its regional peers.

� The short-term strategy is to buy on dips around 1075-1060. � Today we peg resistance for the SET index at 1095-1102 and support at 1080-

1075.

Close +/- % +/-SET INDEX 1089.09 -4.42 -0.40P/E (x) 13.23P/Bv (x) 2.03

3.68Dividend Yield

STOCK EXCH OF THAI INDEX

800

900

1000

1100

1200

8/18 11/18 2/18 5/18 8/18

Source: Bloomberg

Indonesia � Yesterday, the Indonesian stock went up quite strongly. Since the beginning of

the day, the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) was higher than the previous close. Then, it stayed green until the end of the day. The JCI closed at 4,020.90 up 67.62 points (1.71%) after making an intra-day low of 3,954 and intra-day high of 4,021.

� The upward movement was mainly led by gains in telecom stock (TLKM), automotive stock (ASII), banking stock (BBRI) and consumers stock (UNVR). This index gain was limited by losses for EXCL (telecom), BNGA (banking), and BRPT (basic industry). The breadth of the market was positive with 148 shares advancing as compared to 81 that declined. The total turnover on regular market was recorded at IDR 5.6 trillion (USD 656 million).

� Today, we have an expectation that the JCI will decrease with support-resistance level of 3,900–4,070.

Close +/- % +/-JCI Index 4020.99 67.72 1.71P/E (x) 16.49P/Bv (x) 3.06

2.01Dividend Yield

JAKARTA COMPOSITE INDEX

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

8/18 11/18 2/18 5/18 8/18

Source: Bloomberg


3

Singapore CapitaMalls Asia Ltd – Company results Recommendation: Buy Previous close: S$1.175 Fair value: S$1.76

� Increase stakes in two prime assets in Shanghai with total investment of S$949.7mil � Post-acquisition effective stakes would be 65% for Minhang Plaza and 72.5% for Hongkou Plaza � Positive move as assets will be income-generating by end-2011 � Maintain Buy with fair value raised to S$1.76 Hong Kong Hong Kong Economy Roundup � Up to August 15, the Hang Seng Index was down by 12% ytd, which had the worst performance among MSCI Emerging Asia Index,

SHCOMP, and the Dow Jones. � The pain of the market was mainly due to the sluggish US economic outlook and the Eurozone debt crisis, while inflation pressure from

China added salt to the wound. � Hong Kong remains fundamentally stable, with its latest GPD figure pointing at 7.2, higher than that of 2010. Unemployment rate kept

low at 3.5%, which is a noticeable improvement over the end of 2010’s rate of 4%. � The HSI is trading at a forward p/e of 10.8x, almost 2std below its 5-year average value. Current valuation appears very attractive. � We believe that it’s time to build up value stocks for long-term harvest.

Thailand Major Cineplex Group – Company Update Recommendation: BUY Previous close: Bt16.10 Fair value: Bt19.30

� Movie theater operator MAJOR posted 2Q11 net profit growth of as much as 93.56% YoY to Bt293.25m, beating our forecast by 6.80% as movies released during the period made big money. Following results announcement, MAJOR declared a 1H11 dividend of Bt0.43/share. The stock will trade ex-dividend (XD) on Aug 25, 2011.

� The positive momentum is also likely to continue in 2H11 as there will be a lineup of several more big-budget movies to be released and profits from affiliates are set to rise. Looking ahead into 2012, MAJOR plans to open more branches, boost growth at existing branches and increase average movie ticket prices to offset an unexciting lineup of movies to be released next year compared to this year.

� We raise our 2011 net profit outlook for MAJOR to Bt895.51m. We also upgrade MAJOR shares to 'BUY' with an upwardly revised price target of Bt19.30/share based on a P/E multiple of 19x.


4

Market News

US � US consumer prices rose faster than expected in July as gasoline rebounded sharply, but a moderation in underlying price pressures

backed the Federal Reserve's view of a low inflation environment. The Labor Department said its Consumer Price Index increased 0.5 per cent, the largest gain since March, after falling 0.2 per cent in June. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.2 per cent rise last month. (BT Online)

� New US claims for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, according to a government report on Thursday that

suggested hiring in August was steady but not robust. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 408,000, the Labor Department said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims rising to 400,000. The prior week's figure was revised up to 399,000 from the previously reported 395,000. (BT Online)

� Factory activity in the US Mid-Atlantic region plummeted in August, falling to the lowest level since March 2009, while existing home

sales unexpectedly dropped in July, tempering hopes for a revival of economic recovery. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank said its business activity index dropped to minus 30.7 from positive 3.2 the month before and was far below economists' expectations for positive 3.7, according to a Reuters poll. (BT Online)

Singapore

� Singapore's central bank said on Thursday its domestic money markets are functioning in an orderly manner and it has not had to undertake extraordinary measures. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) made its comments in response to media queries on the Singapore dollar swap offer rate (SOR), which turned negative for the first time last week as investors sought safety in the Singapore dollar as global stock markets plunged. Singapore's current policy stance is to allow a gradual appreciation of the local dollar against a basket of currencies to curb price pressures. That stance, however, has attracted even more safe-haven inflows into the AAA-rated South-east Asian city-state, threatening to magnify existing price pressures and hurting local banks by reducing their already low loan margins. MAS said its next statement on its monetary policy stance will be on Oct 21, as originally scheduled. (BT Online)

� Sales of private homes rose 21.6 per cent quarter on quarter in Q2 2011 and the number of units bought by mainland Chinese buyers hit

a new high, according to a new report from DTZ. The property firm, which analysed caveats lodged for both new and secondary sales, said that the number of transactions rose to 8,458 in the second quarter of this year from 6,958 deals in Q1. (BT Online)

Greater China Region

� On August 17, Wen Jiabao chaired a State Council executive meeting, discussed and adopted the "China Aging Development" twelve-five years plan to study the deployment of further improving the social insurance fund management. Appropriate to broaden the investment channels for the basic pension insurance fund. (Source: Sina)

� On August 17, the central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan held a forum in Hong Kong including "increase the amount of corporate bonds of RMB $ 50 billion "and Zhou Xiaochuan highlight: it is a high time for launching the Hong Kong stocks’ ETF. (Source: Sina)

Thailand � Deputy PM and Commerce Minister Kittirat Na Ranong said the government will maximize Thailand’s potential for food production to

push the country to become a leader in ASEAN and boost exports. He was also confident that Thai exports could grow by up to 20-30%. (Source: Bisnews)

� SET-listed companies posted combined net profits of Bt386b in 1H11, up 35% YoY, according to the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).

The top-three best performing sectors included resources, financials and property & construction. (Source: Bisnews) � Foreign investors turned net sellers of Thai shares worth Bt668.92m on Thu. (Source: Bisnews) � The Thai Industries Sentiment Index (TISI) for Jul 2011 dropped slightly to 105.2 from 107.4 in Jun due to concerns about escalating

production costs and global economic worries, according to the Federation of Thai Industries. (Source: Krungthep Turakij)

Indonesia � Indonesia will lift its electricity tariffs by 10 % in April next year, its finance minister said, in a move that will add to inflationary pressure

but reduce the government's energy subsidy bill and spur investment in power supply. (Source: Reuters) � Trade Minister Mari Elka Pangestu says she is optimistic that the country’s exports will increase at least 18 % next year as long as

growth in Asia remains sustainable. She said that 70 % of Indonesia exports went to Asian countries, while the rest went to Europe and the US. (Source: Jakarta Post)

� Indonesia is targeting higher growth of 6.7 % next year through increased spending in its 2012 budget on infrastructure and improving

the investment climate, while keeping inflation at 5.3 %, the country's president said. Southeast Asia's biggest economy has hummed along with 6.5 % growth this year, roughly in line with a government forecast, while in recent months inflation has fallen below this year's annual target of 5.65 %. The government's challenge will be to lift spending without stoking inflation, an Achilles heel in a sprawling


5

archipelago where transportation costs lead to a structural inflation problem. The central bank has helped moderate imported inflation this year by allowing the rupiah to rise to a seven-year high. The 2012 budget saw the rupiah averaging 8,800 per dollar, versus around 8,500 per dollar now. The actual rupiah level is often well off the budget forecast as it depends partly on capital flows. Yudhoyono said revenues would rise 10.5 % to 1292.9 trillion rupiah (USD 151.4 billion), including a 16 % increase in the tax take, while spending would rise 7 % to 1418.5 trillion rupiah. He said spending priorities included infrastructure -- such as improving Jakarta's notorious traffic jams -- plus institutional reform, education, food and energy security. Yudhoyono said the 2012 deficit was projected at 1.5 % of GDP, steady to this year's initial forecast before higher oil prices forced up spending on fuel subsidies to take the revised forecast for the budget deficit this year to 2.1 % -- still enviable by global standards. Yudhoyono said spending on subsidies would be cut 12 % from this year to 208.9 trillion rupiah in 2012. The government has yet to curb fuel subsidy use or hike electricity prices this year, two moves that could blow its budget inflation forecast next year. Raising fuel and electricity prices would prove unpopular, but economists and rating agencies say these are important steps for the economy's long-term health. (Source: Reuters)


6

Dollar Index 74.25 +0.64%

70

75

80

85

90

8/19/10 11/19/10 2/19/11 5/19/11

Source: Bloomberg

Gold 1823.80 +0.02%

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

8/19/10 11/19/10 2/19/11 5/19/11 8/19/11

Source: Bloomberg

Crude oil 82.38 -5.94%

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

8/19/10 11/19/10 2/19/11 5/19/11

Source: Bloomberg

US Treasury 10yr Yield 2.0624 -4.75%

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

8/19/10 11/19/10 2/19/11 5/19/11

Source: Bloomberg

FSSTI 2824.96 -0.13%

2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

3000

3100

3200

3300

3400

8/19/10 11/19/10 2/19/11 5/19/11

Source: Bloomberg

DJI 10990.58 -3.68%

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

11500

12000

12500

13000

13500

8/19/10 11/19/10 2/19/11 5/19/11

Source: Bloomberg

HSI 20016.27 -1.34%

18000

19000

20000

21000

22000

23000

24000

25000

26000

8/19/10 11/19/10 2/19/11 5/19/11

Source: Bloomberg

SET 1089.09 -0.40%

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

08/19/10 11/19/10 02/19/11 05/19/11

Source: Bloomberg


7

JCI 4020.994 +1.71%

2300

2550

2800

3050

3300

3550

3800

4050

4300

8/19/10 11/19/10 2/19/11 5/19/11

Source: Bloomberg

SHCOMP 2559.472 -1.61%

2300

2500

2700

2900

3100

3300

8/19/10 11/19/10 2/19/11 5/19/11

Source: Bloomberg

SRI LANKA COLOMBO ALL SH 7030.85 +0.24%

2300

2550

2800

3050

3300

3550

3800

4050

4300

8/19/10 11/19/10 2/19/11 5/19/11

Source: Bloomberg


8

Major World Indices

Indices % Chg Chg Last Indices % Chg Chg Last

TEL AVIV 100 INDEX -3.47 -34.55 961.58 ALL ORDINARIES INDX -1.20 -52.40 4319.40

HANG SENG INDEX -1.34 -272.76 20016.27 S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX -3.12 -392.90 12186.71

JAKARTA COMPOSITE INDEX +1.71 +67.72 4020.99 FTSE 100 INDEX -4.49 -239.37 5092.23

FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI +0.02 +0.23 1503.30 CAC 40 INDEX -5.48 -178.30 3076.04

KOSPI INDEX -1.70 -32.09 1860.58 DAX INDEX -5.82 -346.14 5602.80

NIKKEI 225 -1.25 -113.50 8943.76 DOW JONES INDUS. AVG -3.68 -419.63 10990.58

STOCK EXCH OF THAI INDEX -0.40 -4.42 1089.09 S&P 500 INDEX -4.46 -53.24 1140.65

SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE -1.61 -41.79 2559.47 NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX -5.22 -131.05 2380.43

TAIWAN TAIEX INDEX -1.64 -126.79 7614.97 NYSE Arca Gold BUGS -1.73 -10.01 568.11

BSE SENSEX 30 INDEX -2.20 -371.01 16469.79

SRI LANKA COLOMBO ALL SH

+0.24 +16.74 7030.85

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Top Value & Volume

Singapore

Top 10 Value Last % Chg Chg Value Top 10 Volume Last % Chg Chg Volume

GENTING SINGAPOR

1.65 +0.92 +0.02 98,918,980 SHENG SIONG GROUP LTD

0.36 +4.41 +0.02 100,589,000

UNITED OVERSEAS

18.95 +0.64 +0.12 90,087,300 GOLDEN AGRI-RESOURCES LTD

0.66 -1.49 -0.01 80,082,000

DBS GROUP HLDGS

13.89 -0.07 -0.01 74,525,180 GENTING SINGAPORE PLC

1.65 +0.92 +0.02 60,072,000

OCBC BANK 8.85 -0.78 -0.07 73,408,560 NEXT-GENERATION SATELLITE CO

0.03 +0.00 +0.00 41,751,000

SINGAP TELECOMM

2.90 -2.36 -0.07 70,264,420 YANGZIJIANG SHIPBUILDING

1.08 -5.26 -0.06 39,298,000

KEPPEL CORP LTD

9.04 -1.95 -0.18 62,175,700 NOBLE GROUP LTD

1.45 +0.35 +0.01 37,414,000

NOBLE GROUP LTD

1.45 +0.35 +0.01 54,045,100 COSCO CORP SINGAPORE LTD

1.05 -3.67 -0.04 32,328,000

GOLDEN AGRI-RESO

0.66 -1.49 -0.01 53,406,370 SINGAPORE TELECOM LTD

2.90 -2.36 -0.07 24,003,000

CAPITALAND LTD 2.50 -1.57 -0.04 46,756,230 CAPITALAND LTD 2.50 -1.57 -0.04 18,571,000

WILMAR INTERNATI

5.19 +0.97 +0.05 44,846,230 NEPTUNE ORIENT LINES LTD

1.09 -2.68 -0.03 17,164,000



9

Hong Kong


HONG KONG EXCHNG

147.60 +3.58 +5.10 3,123,455,000 BANK OF CHINA-H 3.13 -0.63 -0.02 288,159,945

CHINA MOBILE 75.15 -0.60 -0.45 2,213,317,000 IND & COMM BK-H 5.01 -2.15 -0.11 262,748,726

HSBC HLDGS PLC 68.05 -2.02 -1.40 1,440,345,000 CHINA CONST BA-H

5.45 -0.55 -0.03 257,470,144

PING AN INSURA-H 65.05 -2.98 -2.00 1,438,583,000 AGRICULTURAL-H 3.75 -1.57 -0.06 119,017,978

CHINA CONST BA-H 5.45 -0.55 -0.03 1,413,447,000 GCL-POLY ENERGY

3.48 -5.18 -0.19 84,462,000

BOC HONG KONG HO

20.20 -0.98 -0.20 1,377,520,000 GOME ELECTRICAL

3.47 -2.25 -0.08 78,440,192

IND & COMM BK-H 5.01 -2.15 -0.11 1,328,165,000 YUEXIU PROPERTY

1.38 +4.55 +0.06 73,078,400

TENCENT HOLDINGS

180.00 +0.11 +0.20 1,052,103,000 CHINA PETROLEU-H

6.71 -0.74 -0.05 72,433,512

CHINA YURUN FOOD

19.46 -8.42 -1.79 932,944,500 LENOVO GROUP LTD

4.58 -6.53 -0.32 67,251,904

BANK OF CHINA-H 3.13 -0.63 -0.02 907,312,900 PETROCHINA CO-H

9.53 -1.85 -0.18 66,610,672


Thailand


SHIN CORP PCL 37.75 -5.63 -2.25 11,747,990,000 NEP REALTY & IND

0.94 -3.09 -0.03 478,278,200

BANGKOK BANK PUB

162.00 +1.89 +3.00 3,049,885,000 THAI-GERMAN PRO

0.55 -11.29 -0.07 262,283,200

SIAM COMM BK PCL 118.00 +0.85 +1.00 2,390,066,000 BTS GROUP HOLDIN

0.68 -2.86 -0.02 253,983,800

KASIKORNBANK PCL

135.50 +1.12 +1.50 1,878,705,000 JASMINE INTL PCL

2.74 -1.44 -0.04 168,459,500

PTT PCL 329.00 -0.90 -3.00 1,399,931,000 TMB BANK PCL 1.87 +0.00 +0.00 166,393,000

THAI OIL PCL 70.50 -0.35 -0.25 1,061,316,000 RASA PROPERTY 1.54 +5.48 +0.08 156,628,200

PTT CHEMICAL PCL 147.00 -0.34 -0.50 1,041,110,000 NAWARAT PATANAKA

0.72 +2.86 +0.02 156,300,800

KRUNG THAI BANK 20.10 -0.99 -0.20 1,036,046,000 PROP PERFECT PCL

0.91 -2.15 -0.02 140,029,600

ADVANCED INFO 114.50 -0.43 -0.50 862,480,000 QUALITY HOUSES 1.87 -3.61 -0.07 116,783,400

KASIKORNBANK-FOR

136.00 +1.87 +2.50 811,727,000 ITALIAN-THAI DVL 4.26 +1.91 +0.08 116,582,000



10

Indonesia


PERUSAHAAN GAS N 3425.00 3.01 100.00 589,186,300,000 BAKRIE & BROTHER 69.00 4.55 3.00 922,714,500

ASTRA INTERNATIO 72750.00 3.93 2750.00 443,157,200,000 BERAU COAL ENERG 550.00 5.77 30.00 414,195,500

BUMI RESOURCES 2750.00 0.92 25.00 304,097,500,000 ENERGI MEGA PERS 205.00 2.50 5.00 406,335,500

BANK MANDIRI 7350.00 1.38 100.00 284,892,300,000 BAKRIE SUMATERA 405.00 5.19 20.00 197,333,500

BANK RAKYAT INDO 6850.00 2.24 150.00 248,844,300,000 KAWASAN INDUS JA 193.00 0.52 1.00 187,191,500

BERAU COAL ENERG 550.00 5.77 30.00 225,093,100,000 BAKRIELAND DEV 149.00 0.00 0.00 182,587,500

TELEKOMUNIKASI 7450.00 3.47 250.00 214,343,200,000 PERUSAHAAN GAS N 3425.00 3.01 100.00 174,284,000

BANK CENTRAL ASI 8200.00 0.61 50.00 144,277,800,000 LIPPO KARAWACI 800.00 1.27 10.00 158,966,500

LIPPO KARAWACI 800.00 1.27 10.00 127,724,400,000 BUMI RESOURCES 2750.00 0.92 25.00 111,266,000

CITRA MARGA NUSA 1600.00 5.96 90.00 126,685,900,000 ALAM SUTERA REAL 425.00 -1.16 -5.00 106,360,000


Sri Lanka


COLOMBO LAND & D 64.90 5.02 3.10 1,627,382,000 HVA FOODS LTD 32.90 76.88 14.30 31,021,800

HVA FOODS LTD 32.90 76.88 14.30 1,012,742,000 COLOMBO LAND & D 64.90 5.02 3.10 23,797,500

CITRUS LEISURE P 85.70 14.88 11.10 544,482,100 PC HOUSE LTD 20.20 7.45 1.40 20,186,400

PC HOUSE LTD 20.20 7.45 1.40 407,067,300 CENTRAL INVESTME 12.10 21.00 2.10 15,746,700

HAYLEYS PLC 360.80 -1.15 -4.20 339,194,400 PANASIAN POWER L 5.20 0.00 0.00 15,123,100

VALLIBEL ONE LTD 29.60 -0.67 -0.20 244,465,300 VALLIBEL ONE LTD 29.60 -0.67 -0.20 8,160,100

ODEL PLC 41.00 12.95 4.70 184,095,500 CITRUS LEISURE P 85.70 14.88 11.10 6,472,800

CENTRAL INVESTME 12.10 21.00 2.10 182,329,800 TOUCHWOOD INV PL 26.90 13.50 3.20 4,744,100

LANKA HOSPITAL 93.50 -10.10 -10.50 179,834,000 ODEL PLC 41.00 12.95 4.70 4,610,100

NATL DVLP BANK P 135.10 -1.10 -1.50 142,284,800 TESS AGRO LTD 3.00 7.14 0.20 4,571,000


Commodities & Currencies

Commodities % Chg Chg Last Currencies Price of FX to

S$ Price of FX to

US$

GOLD SPOT US$ / OZ +0.02 +0.30 1,823.80 AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR 0.7911 1.0391

SILVER SPOT US$ / OZ +0.03 +0.01 40.61 CANADIAN DOLLAR 0.8142 0.9905

WTI Cushing Crude Oil Spot Px -5.94 -5.20 82.38 EURO 0.5735 1.4333

BRITISH POUND 0.4977 1.6516 Source: Bloomberg

US DOLLAR 0.8220 1.0000

Commodities % Chg Chg Last CHINA RENMINBI 5.2510 6.3883

Malaysian Rubber Board Standard +0.04 +0.50 1347.75 HONG KONG DOLLAR 6.4071 7.7942

PALM OIL (RM$/METRIC TON) +0.54 +17.00 3149.50 JAPANESE YEN 62.9500 76.5800

Source: Bloomberg KOREAN WON 882.8408 1074.0000

Index % Chg Chg Last MALAYSIAN RINGGIT 2.4511 2.9815

DOLLAR INDEX SPOT +0.64 +0.47 74.25 THAI BAHT 24.5858 29.9000



11

US Treasury Yields

Maturity Today Yesterday Last Week Last Month

3 Months 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

6 Months 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.06

2 Years 0.19 0.19 0.18 0.37

3 Years 0.32 0.33 0.34 0.62

5 Years 0.88 0.91 1.01 1.43

10 Years 2.06 2.17 2.34 2.87

30 Years 3.42 3.57 3.76 4.19

Yield Spread (10 yrs - 3 mths) 2.06

Yield Spread (10 yrs - 2 yrs) 1.87

Source: Data provided by ValuBond – http://www.valubond.com

Economic Announcement

US Singapore

Date Statistic For Survey Prior Date Statistic For Survey Prior

8/22/11 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index

JUL - - -0.46 8/23/11 CPI (MOM) - NSA JUL - - -0.2%

22-27 AUG

Mortgage Delinquencies 2Q - - 8.32% 8/23/11 CPI (YoY) JUL 5.0% 5.2%

22-27 AUG

MBA Mortgage Foreclosures

2Q - - 4.52% 8/26/11 Industrial Production MoM SA

JUL 0.8% 1.6%

8/23/11 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index

AUG - - -1 8/26/11 Industrial Production YoY JUL 9.0% 10.5%

8/23/11 New Home Sales JUL 315K 312K 8/31/11 Credit Card Bad Debts JUL - - 15.0M

8/23/11 New Home Sales MoM JUL 1.0% -1.0% 8/31/11 Credit Card Billings JUL - - 3010.3M

8/24/11 MBA Mortgage Applications

19-Aug - - 4.1% 8/31/11 Bank Loans & Advances (YoY)

JUL - - 26.2%

8/24/11 Durable Goods Orders JUL 2.0% -2.1% 8/31/11 M1 Money Supply (YoY) JUL - - 19.4%

8/24/11 Durables Ex Transportation

JUL -0.4% 0.1% 8/31/11 M2 Money Supply (YoY) JUL - - 10.7%

8/24/11 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air

JUL - - -0.4%

9/5/11 Electronics Sector Index AUG - - 49.5



12

Thailand Hong Kong


8/19/11 Forward Contracts 12-Aug - - - - 8/22/11 CPI - Composite Index (YoY)

JUL - - 5.6%

8/19/11 Foreign Reserves 12-Aug - - - - 8/25/11 Exports YoY% JUL - - 9.2%

8/22/11 Gross Domestic Product SA (QoQ)

2Q - - 2.0% 8/25/11 Imports YoY% JUL - - 11.5%

8/22/11 Gross Domestic Product (YoY)

2Q - - 3.0% 8/25/11 Trade Balance JUL - - -40.3B

22-25 AUG

Customs Exports (YoY) JUL - - 16.8% 8/29/11 Retail Sales - Value (YoY)

JUL - - 28.8%

22-25 AUG

Customs Imports (YoY) JUL - - 26.1% 8/29/11 Retail Sales - Volume (YoY)

JUL - - 22.2%

22-25 AUG

Customs Trade Balance JUL - - $1270M 8/31/11 Money Supply M1 - in HK$ (YoY)

JUL - - 12.5%

8/24/11 Benchmark Interest Rate 24-Aug - - 3.25% 8/31/11 Money Supply M2 - in HK$ (YoY)

JUL - - 8.4%

8/26/11 Forward Contracts 19-Aug - - - - 8/31/11 Money Supply M3 - in HK$ (YoY)

JUL - - 8.3%

8/26/11 Foreign Reserves 19-Aug - - - - 8/31/11 Govt Mthly Budget Surp/Def HK$

JUL - - -2.9B

29-30 AUG

Mfg. Production Index ISIC (YoY)

JUL - - 3.30 9/5/11 Purchasing Managers Index

AUG - - 51.4

29-30 AUG

Mfg. Production Index ISIC (SA)

JUL - - 195.7 9/7/11 Foreign Currency Reserves

AUG - - $278.8B

29-30 AUG

Total Capacity Utilization ISIC

JUL - - 63.6 9/13/11 Hong Kong Manpower Survey

4Q - - 21%

8/31/11 Total Exports YOY% JUL - - 16.4% 9/15/11 Industrial Production (YoY)

2Q - - 3.5%

8/31/11 Total Exports in US$ Million

JUL - - $20816M 9/15/11 Producer Price (YoY) 2Q - - 8.2%


Indonesia Sri Lanka


22-26 AUG

Total Local Auto Sales JUL - - 70157 16-25 AUG

Exports YoY% JUN - - 34.3%

22-26 AUG

Total Motorcycle Sales JUL - - 658817 16-25 AUG

Imports YoY% JUN - - 67.9%

9/1/11 Inflation (YoY) AUG - - 4.61% 8/19/11 Repurchase Rate 19-Aug - - 7.000%

9/1/11 Inflation NSA (MoM) AUG - - 0.67% 8/19/11 Reverse Repo Rate 19-Aug - - 8.500%

9/1/11 Core Inflation (YoY) AUG - - 4.55% 8/31/11 CPI Moving Average (YoY)

AUG - - 7.0%

9/1/11 Exports (YoY) JUL - - 49.3% 8/31/11 CPI (YoY) AUG - - 7.5%

9/1/11 Total Imports (YoY) JUL - - 28.3% 07-15 SEP

Exports YoY% JUL - - - -

9/1/11 Total Trade Balance JUL - - $3332M 07-15 SEP

Imports YoY% JUL - - - -

01-09 SEP

Consumer Confidence Index

AUG - - 111.8 15-25 SEP

GDP (YoY) 2Q - - 7.9%

02-09 SEP

Danareksa Consumer Confidence

AUG - - 89.6 9/16/11 Repurchase Rate 16-Sep - - - -

05-09 SEP

Foreign Reserves AUG - - $122.67B 9/16/11 Reverse Repo Rate 16-Sep - - - -

05-09 SEP

Net Foreign Assets (IDR Tln)

AUG - - 1010.53T 9/30/11 CPI Moving Average (YoY)

SEP - - - -

07-13 SEP

Money Supply - M1 (YoY)

JUL - - 16.6% 9/30/11 CPI (YoY) SEP - - - -

07-13 SEP

Money Supply - M2 (YoY)

JUL - - 13.1% 07-15 OCT

Exports YoY% AUG - - - -

9/8/11 Bank Indonesia Reference Rate

8-Sep - - 6.75% 07-15 OCT

Imports YoY% AUG - - - -


PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS

BUY >15% upside from the current price

HOLD Trade within ± 15% from the current price

SELL >15% downside from the current price

We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors

like (but not limited to) a stock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or

absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final

recommendation

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2

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© 2011 Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Limited

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SINGAPORE

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B-2-6 Megan Avenue II 12 Jln Yap Kwan Seng 50450 Kuala Lumpur Tel : (603) 2166 8099 Fax : (603) 2166 5099

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Bangkok Thailand 10500 Tel : (622) 635 7100 Fax : (622) 635 1616

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The Naruse Securities Co Ltd

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Tel : (81) 03-3666-2101 Fax : (81) 03-3664-0141

Website : www.naruse-sec.co.jp

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14

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Contact Information

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Go Choon Koay Bryan Investment Analyst Property +65 6531-1792 [email protected]

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