Photovoltaic Solar: Market and Technology Trends · Page 4 24.01.2008 Fachri Atamny Solar Cell...

Photovoltaic Solar: Market and Technology Trends (Industrial Application of Organic Photonics)

June 24, 2008Fachri Atamny

Page 2 24.01.2008 Fachri Atamny

Photovoltaic Solar Environment and Issues: Outline

Solar Cell Market Environment and Issues- Market growth drivers- Market size, segments, and growthPhotovoltaic Solar Technologies- Trends, Changes and DisruptionsIndustrial Applications of organic Photonics- SC vs. Displays vs. Solar


Solar Cell Market Growth Drivers

Primary Driver:

Energy demand:- 2007: 13 terawatts - 2030: 18 terawatts - 2050: 26 terawatts

Secondary Drivers (most are result of the primary driver: energy demand)

Environmental issues (global worming / climate changes, CO2 reduction/penalties)Oil Price (30 $ > 100$)Natural Gas PriceCoal PriceNational Security (energy security concerns)

Politics: Subsidy, feed in tariff (artificial market)

Grid Parity (real market)


Solar Cell Market Growth DriversEnergy Demand: World energy consumption 1980-2050

13 terawatts (2007)

18 terawatts (2030)

26 terawatts (2050)

Source: International Energy outlook 2007, 5/2007, Energy Information Administration, U.S. department of Energy.

1 terawatts1000 Nuclear Reactors

283 309347 366 400

447511 559

607 654702

771847

9301'021

0

200

400

600

800

1'000

1'200

Qua

drill

ion

Btu

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

History Projection

Projection: assumption that 1.9% growth in energy consumption p.a.


Market size, growth, and segmentsEnergy Demand by Segmentation

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Electr i cal Power Tr anspor tation Ther mal

Source: International Energy outlook 2007, 5/2007, Energy Information Administration, U.S. department of Energy.

Quadrillion Btus

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Electrical Power 54% 58% 58% 58% 59% 59%Transportation 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27%Thermal 19% 15% 15% 15% 14% 14%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

58% Electricity

27% Transportation

15% Thermal


New renewable

2%

Oil7%

Hydro16%

Nuclear15%

Coal40%

gas20%

Market size, growth, and segmentsEnergy Total Market Size: Electricity

2004 only ~0.06% of electricity generated worldwide was from PV solar.

[%]Coal 40.3gas 19.7Oil 6.6Hydro 16Nuclear 15.2New renewable 2.2

Total [%] 100

67%

Source: Credite Suisse, November 2007. Total Electricity Production Mix – 2005; CLSA, Solar Maximum, May 2007.EIA, EPA, International Energy outlook 2007, 5/2007, Energy Information Administration, U.S. department of Energy.

31%


Market size, growth, and segmentsElectricity World Market Size

Source: Credite Suisse, November 2007; International Energy outlook 2007, 5/2007, Energy Information Administration, U.S. department of Energy.

Electricity market:

2004 8 TW

2010 9.3 TW

2015 10.5 TW

2030 13 TW

2050 15 TW

ca 150 GW per year

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GW

OECD Non-OECD

World Electricity Market


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40

Year

Rea

ctor

Num

ber

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Solar Cell Market Growth Drivers: Energy DemandElectricity Generation from Nuclear Power

2004 2015 2030

369[GW]

Delta

China

India

Russia

South Korea

Japan

U.S.A

Canada

492

123

36

17

20

16

14

13

6

420

51

Source: International Energy outlook 2007, 5/2007, International Atomic Enregy, World Nuclear Association;Energy Information Administration, U.S. department of Energy.

- 115 30 years old- 156 27 years old- 328 20 years old Ca 10 Years are needed for

planning and building a nuclear power plant


Solar Cell Market Growth DriversEnvironmental Issue: CO2 Reduction

Source: Engineering & Science 2/2007, World Energy Assessment Overview 2004, UNDP.

There is no natural destruction mechanism for carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere.Unlike the ozone depletion, it will not heal by itself through chemical processes.

The time needed for 500 to 600 ppmv of CO2 to decay back o 300 ppmv is between 500 and 5000 years.

CO2 level:(if NO CO2 reduction takes place)

2007: 380 ppmv2050: 550 ppmv2100: 750 ppm

CO2[ppmv]

Global Temp.Rise [°C]

Consequences /Remarks

380

550

750

+2 Coral reefs die. Upper limit.

Serious for humans

The clean, carbon-free energy needed to stabilize CO2 level at 550 ppmv in 2050 is

15 – 20 terawatts


Solar Cell Market Growth Drivers: Energy DemandOil Price Development

Source: International Energy outlook 2007, 5/2007, Energy Information Administration, U.S. department of Energy. The Council of the European Union. bbl=Barrel

2006 2014 2030

68Oil Price $ 59*49

Reference case

* $95 per barrel on a nominal basis.

2007 already $100 (!)

1st Gulfwar

Asia Crisis

DemandRecovery

0

20

40

60

80

100

History Projections

Low Oil Price

Reference

High Oil Price

US$/bbl

1980 1995 2006 2015 2030

World Oil Prices in Three Cases

1970 1980 1990 2000 20070

20

40

60

80

100

120

US$/bbl

OPECcrisis

Iran/Iraqwar

1st Gulfwar

Demandrecovery

Asia crisis

Afghanistanwar begins

Iraq warbegins


Solar Cell Market Growth Drivers: Energy DemandCoal Price Development

Source: Photon Consulting, 3/2008; Wall Street Journal;

The price per metric ton for coal out of Newcastle, Australia, is a key benchmark for the Asian market.

40%

of the Electricity is generated using coal.

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

20

40

60

80

100

120

140$

US$/metric ton

Increase of coal price

leads to increase of

Electricity price


Solar Cell Market Growth Drivers: Energy DemandNatural Gas Price Development

Source: natural gas week

20%

of the Electricity is generated using gas.

Increase of gas price

leads to increase of

Electricity price US$/million Btu = cost + insurance + freight

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

US$

/mill

ion

Btu

LNG-Japan NG-EU NG US


Solar Cell Market Growth DriversConclusions: Market Drivers

Market is there: 13 TW (2007); 18 TW (2030); 26 TW (2050)

To Dos- Create real market by achieving grid-parity to be competitive with

conventional energy sources.

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Natural gas

Coal

Wind - onshore

Wind - offshore

Nuclear

Geothermal

Hydro

Solar thermal

Solar (photovoltaic)

Typical electricity generation costs





80; 19%

7'729; 18%

139; 0%

546; 1%

26'449; 62%

Europe

North America

Asia-Pacif ic

Latin America

Middle East & Africa

PV Solar Market Size and Growth 2007-2011: Summary

Focus on:

- EU: 61%- DE, SP, Italy, France, Greece, Portugal

- Asia: 18%- Japan, China, S-Korea, India

- N-America: 19%- US

- Middle East 1%- Dubai, Oman, Abu Dhabi





Photovoltaic Solar TechnologiesTechnology Trends, Changes & Disruptions

Bulk

Thin Film

Thin Film

Source: Oerlikon

Single Crystal WaferMulti-Crystal Wafer

MonocrystallinePolycrystalline

Amorphous (a-Si)

Highest EfficiencyHighest Material CostsRigid

Lowest Invest Costs

Tandem (a-Si/uc-Si)CdTe

Liquid electrolyteGel electrolyteSolid-state electrolyteOrganic – Organic*Organic – Fullerene**Organic - Inorganic

Silicon (Si)

Ga / As

Si

CdTe

Dye Sensitized

Full Organic

Hybrid

CIS

* Organic includes organic molecules as well as polymers. Organic – Organic means that both the donor and the acceptor are organic based materials. ** The polymer or the organic molecule acts as donor and fullerene derivates molecules acts as acceptors.

CISCIGS

Medium EfficiencyMedium Material CostsRigid & Flexible

Medium Invest Costs

Lowest EfficiencyLowest Material CostsRigid & Flexible

Lowest Invest Costs

Inor

gani

c P

VO

rgan

ic P

V

Ribbon Silicon Wafer





Semi, Displays, Solar: Complexity vs. Device Size

SC Display Solar

Device Size

SC Display SolarDS

Complexity

TFT

OTFT


Information & Data Displaying

Mechanical

Chemical

Electronicinorganic

Technology Principle

- Stone- Leather- paper/ Plastic

- Film, Slide etc

- CRT- LCD- PDP

- OLED

Eng

inee

ring

Task

Eng

inee

ring

OrganicElectronic

Up-time Up

Yield Up

Throughput Up

Equipment $ Down

Consumable Down

Footprint Down

Utilization Up

Manuf. Steps Down

Automation Up

MP Complexity Down


Comparison:

Dye Sensitized Cells: Production Volumes & Planned Capacities

Company Country Semi-conductor

ProductionEnd 2006

CapacityEnd 2006

CapacityEnd 2007

CapacityEnd 2008

CapacityEnd 2009

CapacityEnd 2010

Source: Sun & Wind Energy 1/2007; Capacity=MWp

UK TiO2/dye 5 5 30 <200 (200) (200)G24 Innovation

Orionsolar PV Is TiO2/dye - - 2 (5) (10) (25)

Solar Technol Greece TiO2/dye - - - 1.5 2 3

Peccell Technol Japan TiO2/dye - - - 0.5 1 2

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