Physics to Fish: Two Examples and

Issues with End-to-End models

Kenneth RoseDept. Oceanography and Coastal Sciences

Louisiana State UniversityBaton Rouge, LA, USA

Today

• Example of an “ESAM”– Full disclosure (added last night)– hypocrisy

• Why physics to fishers or end-to-end models now

• Issues and challenges– Recent workshop

• Ongoing case study– Sardine and anchovy in California Current

•Egg•Yolk-sac

•Ocean•larva

•Estuary•larva

•Early •juvenile

•Late juvenile

•Adult

PA1 FA1 FA2 FA3 FA4 FA5 FA6 FA7 GA1 PA2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 GA2 PA3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 GA3 PA4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 GA4 PA5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 GA5 PA6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 GA6 PA7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 GA7 PA8

t+1

Egg

A1A2A3A4A5A6A7

t

Matrix Projection ModelMatrix Projection Model

Egg

A1A2A3A4A5A6A7

Stage duration and mortality are used to calculate P and G

Classic formulation:

Age 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Egg

Yolk-sac Atlantic Bight

PG

P

North CarolinaNorth Carolina

Estuary LarvaEarly JuvenileLate

Juvenile

TransitionTransition

VirginiaVirginia

Ocean Larva

G

Ocean Larva

Ocean Larva

Ocean Larva

TransitionTransition

Estuary LarvaEarly JuvenileLate

Juvenile

Estuary LarvaEarly JuvenileLate

Juvenile

Estuary LarvaEarly JuvenileLate

Juvenile

DailyDaily

BiweeklyBiweekly MonthlyMonthly

July

July

Dec

Dec

AnnualAnnual

Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB)

•Diamond, Murphy, and Rose (in prep)

CGCM2 – VA and NC

1400

Baseline versus Global Scenario2020 matrix in year 50, 2050 in 80 and 2080 in 110

Physics to Fishers(Now back to my original talk)

• Physics-NPZ and fish population models were developed separately

• Meet at zooplankton– Density-dependent closure term for NPZ– B2 is not acceptable– Assumed available for fish by fisheries people

• Advances in each seemed out-of-phase

Physics to Fishers: Why now

• Advances in data collection– Spatially-detailed data– Behavioral measurements

• Continued increases in computing power

• Advances in modeling– Physics: meso-scale features in decadal runs– Fish: individual-based, fine-scale observations

Why now

1996!Data from 1994

Preparation documents sent to review panel members for the Gulf of Mexico Red Snapper stock assessment

One Long-Term Solution

• Coupled models that can address bottom-up, top-down, and side-ways issues

• Climate change effects on fish

• Perceived fisheries management crisis due to simple single-species approach

• Ecosystem-based management (whatever that means)

How to do it• How to combine models with different temporal and

spatial scales

• No general theory

• Options:– Run models separately and average or disaggregate outputs

to be inputs to the next model– Solve pairs or all models simultaneously– All models use the same temporal and spatial scales (“single

code”)

• Super-individuals for self-regeneration

Individual-Based Approach• Very, very smart particles

• Allows for local interactions

• Unique time histories

• Adaptation and acclimation

• Individual variability – full distribution

• Easier movement

• Compatible with complex systems theory

Individual-Based Approach

• Tedious coding

• Complicated bookkeeping– Especially full life cycle

• Data hungry

• Mixing Eulerian and Lagrangian

• Difficult to validate details

• Could be fooling oneself

Recent Workshop

• Abut 50 people meet in Plymouth

• "Bridging the gap between lower and higher trophic levels"

• Resulted in Rose et al. (in review)

• 9 general issues identified

Workshop - Issues

• Zooplankton as the link– E2e shifts from cycling to energy flows– NPZ may need re-vamping– Functional groups and revised processes

• New organisms– Macroinvertebrates (e.g., jellyfish)– Demersal fish and thus benthos– Very HTL organisms, such as humans

Workshop - Issues

• Acclimation and adaptation– Phenotypic plasticity– Genotypic changes of rapid turnover (plankton) and

“evolution” effects on fish

• Scaling– Fundamental to all ecological modeling– E2e further increases diversity of scales– Fine-scale dynamics (e.g., feeding) over broad

space (allow for migration shifts) for multiple decades (long-lived HTL organisms)

Dickey 1991, 2003

Workshop - Issues

• Behavioral movement– Particle tracking for eggs and larvae– Adults are not passive particles– Daily movement versus migrations– Promising approaches but none vetted and little evaluation

• Software and technology– E2e will use extensive code in sequential languages– Several independent efforts making inter-comparison

difficult– Opportunity for common standards and a community effort

Workshop - Issues• Model confidence and forecasting

– Physics and NPZ can use short-term data– Severe challenges for fish and other HTL organisms– Physics people need to loosen up

• Solution techniques– One-way versus two-way coupling– Tradeoff between ease and speed versus dynamic feedbacks– Feedbacks allow for density-dependence– Meshing of Lagrandian and Eulerian– Numerics for full life cycle, multispecies, fully coupled are tricky – Large number, high mortality - super-individuals can cause

artifacts

Houde (1987))

Full Life Cycle with Complex Life History(needed to see full effects and sustainability)

Technical: Computing

• Computing power is

constantly surprising

us (especially older

scientists)

• Super-computers, OPENMP

Institutional

• Silo approach to organizations

• True collaboration– Not mean joint projects with annual meetings,

or email and web meetings– Requires frequent “eye-to-eye” contact

• Resource managers, especially fisheries, resistant to new models

Galileo Newton Darwin Einstein

Crick and Watson International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium

Barabasi 2005

People

Case Study

• Outgrowth from NEMURO efforts - PICES

• Initially unfunded and now CAMEO

• Combining:– ROMS– NEMURO NPZ– individual-based, full life cycle, multi-species

(5) fish in any food web plus fishing vessels

Kishi et al., in review

Original Tokyo Workshop

Most Recent Team• Enrique Curchitser (Rutgers University)

• Kate Hedstrom (ARSC – UAF)

• Jerome Fiechter (UC – Santa Cruz)

• Shin-ichi Ito (Fisheries Research Agency, JP)

• Salvador E. Lluch-Cota (CIBNOR, MX)

• Bernie Megrey (NMFS – Seattle)

Provided by: Salvador E. Lluch-Cota Source: Schwartzlose et al., 1999

Sardine Anchovy

1971

2004

Provided by: Carl van der LingenSources: King, 1997; E. Stenevik, pers com

2 – 10km3 – 3km4 – 300m

Model 1: ROMS

Model 2: NEMURO NPZ

Model 3: Fish IBM

• Multi-species

• Full life cycle

• Daily processes:– Reproduction– Growth– Mortality– Movement

Fish IBM: Reproduction

• Each female spawns using temperature

• Fecundity is weight-dependent

• Add new model individuals using a complicated algorithm for allocating a fixed number to daily spawning in space

Fish IBM: Growth

( ) z

f

CALdWC R S F E H W

dt CAL

n

k

ik

ikk

ij

ijj

MAX

j

K

vPDK

vPDC

C

11

W = weight (g ww)C = consumption (1/day)R = respirationS = SDAF = egestionE = excretionH = reproduction

Depend on W and temperature

PD = prey density (1=ZS; 2=ZL; 3=ZP)V = vulnerabilityK = feeding efficiency

Zoop from NEMURO

Mortality to NEMURO

FISH IBM: Mortality

• Natural– Stage or size-dependent– Option: Predators as biomass chasing individuals– Option: full species that eat individuals and

reproduce, grow, die, and move

• Fishing– Option: age-specific– Option: one of the full species is fishing fleets, like

predators chasing individuals but based on distance from port and fuel prices

FISH IBM: Movement

• Physics for very young

• Behavior for older– Fitness

– Kinesis

– ANN with GA

NEMUROMS IN CALIFORNIA CURRENT SYSTEM

Provided by Jerome Fiechter

Provided by Jerome Fiechter

Conclusions

• ESAM approach can be useful– Perhaps I overstated my objection on Monday

• Ecosystem does not stop at zooplankton, nor can fish be modeled without considering what happens below

• Physics-to-fishers modeling can, and should, be done– Ingredients are available– Decisions are being made, without the best information– Long-term solution

Conclusions

• Physics, zooplankton, and fisheries together is needed, would benefit all, although full life cycle is very challenging

• Proof of principle and then say what data are needed

• Modeling lead the way so get data in 5-10 years

• Based on need and computers, we are already about 10 years behind

Individual Fish(Initial simple coupling)

Large Zooplankton(Initial simple coupling)