Pioneer InvestmentsEuropean High-Yield StrategyInvestment Conference, Boston, March 2010
Gregorio Saichin | Head of Emerging Markets & High Yield
For Broker/Dealer Use Only and Not to be Distributed to the Public
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Agenda
Investment Capabilities
European High-Yield Market
Pioneer Funds – Euro High Yield
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EUROPEAN FIXED INCOME Raffaele Bertoni
GOVT. BONDSTanguy Le SaoutDerek ArnoldMarco CecchiAndreas KonigCosimo MarasciuloAlberto FontanaSemin SoherMarco MeijerAdam LauxINVESTMENT GRADERaffaele Bertoni•Pierre Andre Klein
GLOBAL EMERGING & HIGH YIELDGregorio Saichin
Hakan AksoyZeke DiwanColm D’RosarioYerlan Syzdykov
CREDIT RESEARCH GLOBAL ex USGarrett Walsh
Andriy BoychukSilvia ClarksonBrian FarrellMajella HealyGavin McKeown
Alison HarveyVirna Valenti
US FIXED INCOMEKen Taubes
QUANTITATIVE FIXED INCOMEDiego Franzin
INVESTMENT GRADECharles MelchreitSeth RomanRichard Schlanger
HIGH YIELD DEBT & LOANSAndrew FeltusJonathan SharkeyTracy Wright
TAX EXEMPTTim Pynchon
MORTGAGES /ABSBernhardt, SteveHaghighat, AliPauwels, Nicholas
Zeno, Larry
US CREDIT RESEARCHMichael Temple
David BrechtJoanne FisherJessica FratturaDaniel GilbertKeith HoganRichard StevensWill Taylor
Brad Komenda
CREDIT Tugrul KoladVladimir Popov
Akvile Janeliunaite
INTEREST RATES &RELATIVE VALUE
Grainne DooleyMark ScrowstonAndrey Demidov
Source: Pioneer Investments data as at 29 January 2010
USRobert UrieChin Liu
GLOBAL ASSET ALLOCATION RESEARCH
Monica Defend
GLOBAL ECONOMICSBerardi, AlessiaOrecchia, EmilioSoggiu, Riccardo
Fixed Income OverviewMulti-Disciplinary Fixed-Income Team Dedicated to Alpha Generation
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Strong CapabilitiesHighly-Experienced Team of Investment Professionals
Name Title Industry Experience
Gregorio Saichin Head of Emerging Markets & High Yield 18 years
13 years
6 years
Zeke Diwan High Yield Bond Analyst 14 years
Hakan Aksoy Emerging Markets and High Yield Analyst 12 years
Average of 13 Years’ Industry Experience
Yerlan Syzdykov Senior Portfolio Manager
Colm D’Rosario Junior Portfolio Manager
Global Fixed Income Team managing approximately €85 billion in assets*
Emerging Markets and High Yield Team - three Emerging Markets Debt Portfolio Managers and two dedicated Emerging Market Research Analysts
Credit Analyst Team including three Emerging Markets and High Yield Specialists with an average of 10 years’ experience
Global Emerging Markets Equity Team work in tandem to assess key macro and micro trends
*Source: Pioneer Investments as at 29 January 2010
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Source: Pioneer Investments
Business ManagementA Wide Range of Credit Strategies Across the Risk/Return Spectrum
Short-Term IG Corporate
+ A
vera
ge C
redi
t Rat
ing
-
Euro Cash Plus
Euro Corporate
Short-Term
Euro Recovery
Euro Corporate
Bond
Euro Corporate
Etico
IG Corporate/Government Bond
Euro Aggregate
Bond
Global Aggregate
Bond
Euro Strategic
Bond
IG Corporate Bond
High Yield
IG and sub-IG Corporate and Sovereign Bond
Emerging Market Bond
Emerging Market Bond
Euro High Yield Bond
Sub-IG Bond
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EMERGING MARKETS DEBT
Pioneer ObbligazionarioPaesi Emergenti a distribuzioneItalian UCITS (inception 2000)
Pioneer Funds –Emerging Markets BondLuxembourg UCITS (inception 07/2000)
Pioneer Funds – Emerging Markets Bond Local CurrenciesSovereign DebtLuxembourg UCITS (inception 11/2009)
EUROPEAN CREDIT
Pioneer Funds –Euro Strategic Bond Multi-Strategy fund, Euro core, several alpha sourcesLuxembourg UCITS (inception 06/2004).
Pioneer Funds –Euro High Yield Bond FundEuro denominated high yield credit BBB- and belowLuxembourg UCITS (inception 12/2005).
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Pioneer Investments as at 29 January 2010
Emerging Markets Debt and European Credit at Pioneer Investments
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Agenda
Investment Capabilities
European High-Yield Market
Overview
Update
Outlook
Pioneer Funds – Euro High Yield
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European High-Yield Market Overview Spreads have Normalised
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Bas
is p
oint
spr
ead
0
5
10
15
20
25
% T
reas
ury
Yiel
d
Global Emerging Market Credit Euro HY IndexGlobal Emerging Market Sovereign Plus US 2 Year Treasury
Source: Bloomberg as at 8 December 2009
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European High-Yield Market OverviewThe Story so Far…
The European High-Yield Market began in earnest in the late 90’s fed by TMT project finance credit stories.
Following the bursting of the TMT bubble in early 2000 the High-Yield market effectively shut down and did not restart again until 2003.
The loose monetary conditions created in early 2000 drove the market up and was instrumental in funding the LBO wave Europe saw much of over the decade. The demand for yield in a low-rate environment significantly outstripped supply (LBO new issuance, fallen angels, etc).
In mid-2007, the market once again stalled as the global financial bubble began to burst, leading to a lengthy closure ofthe EHY new issue market, which both preceded and followed the Lehman Brothers default. The primary market finally reopened in mid-2009.
The financial crisis triggered a wave of rating downgrades in financial institutions, many of which subsequently entered the EHY indices over the last 18 months.
Following the unprecedented global stimuli enacted by Governments around the world in late 2008, monetary conditions were loose enough to ignite the strongest mean reversion bond markets have ever experienced.
Source: Credit Suisse Euro High Yield Index All Currencies Unhedged as at 17 December 2009
Year Annual Returns1999 7.02%2000 -9.76%2001 -5.48%2002 -3.64%2003 30.89%2004 13.82%2005 5.86%2006 9.02%2007 0.49%2008 -32.58%2009 69.46%
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CHEMICALS11.84%TRANSPORTATION
10.80%
MEDIA / TELECOM22.81%
OTHERS38.59%
SERVICE7.33%
FORESTPROD/CONTAINER
S 8.63%
European High-Yield Market OverviewThe Issuer Universe has Evolved Favourably Since the Market Began…
1999 2009
The European High-Yield universe has matured since 1999 when over 60% of the universe was media/ telecom companies, most of which had poor business plans with too much debt and little cash flow.Fast forward to 2009, the EHY universe is more balanced and with fewer cyclical sectors (homebuilders, retail, etc.) than USHY.
OTHERS20.67%
CHEMICALS 7.84%
TRANSPORTATION 5.65%
MEDIA/TELECOM 61.52%
SERVICE 1.18%
FOREST PROD/CONTAINER
3.15%
Source: ML High yield Constrained Index 29 January 2010
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European High-Yield Market Overview…and this is Also the Case for the High-Yield Investor Base
50 Accounts 250 Accounts
Crossovers15%
High YieldAccounts
50%
Hedge Funds25%
Broker/DealerProp Desk 10%
High YieldAccounts
60%
Broker/DealerProp Desk 40%
1999 2009
The European High-Yield investor constituency has also evolved since 1999.
The current investor base, although more balanced that the original one, is still substantially skewed towards investors with tactical goals such as hedge funds and dealers.
We expect that as the market continues to grow, the number of cross over and dedicated accounts will grow faster than the speculative type, leading to a more balanced investor base.
Source: Pioneer Investments, Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs as at 31 December 1999 and 31 December 2009
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The Case for European High YieldThe Banks’ Losing Game
The banks’ traditional lending business has been impaired as a consequence of the credit crisis.
With weakened balance sheets in the near to medium term, European banks will be unwilling and/or unable to refinance all of the upcoming corporate maturities that begin accumulating materially from 2011 onwards.
The CLO/CDO business model has also collapsed and will not be viable for the foreseeable future. In addition to this, the regulatory environment in Europe (i.e. UCITS) prohibits investment schemes from investing in loans.
Global Senior Secured Bond Issuance as % Total
This leaves the Euro High-Yield market as the only viable market where the mostly senior bank debt will find readily available funds for the upcoming take out. This trend is clearly illustrated by the growth in the amount of senior secured note issuance as a percentage of overall high-yield bond issuance – on both sides of the Atlantic.
The current profile of the EHY market will provide technical support in the form of coupons and redemptions over the next three years, which will provide capital for the loan take outs.
Source : JP. Morgan, S&PLCD 29 January 2010
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The Case for European High Yield Diversification will Lead to Growth
Over the last 10 years, the European high-yield market has grown as a percentage of the global high-yield universe, rising from 4.6% to 17.7%.
Global high-yield investors have traditionally allocated only 10% to the European high-yield space but we expect investors to materially reduce their underweight over the next few years as they seek diversification by currency, country (i.e. economy) and sector.
We also expect large fixed income institutional investors (pension funds, insurance companies, SWFs) to diversify away from purely USD-denominated assets and we believe EHY will be one of the beneficiaries.
Source: Bloomberg, ML Indices HW00 Index as at 31 December 2010
Weight of European High Yield within Global High Yield
4.6%
12.0%
17.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
1999 2004 2009
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Agenda
Investment Capabilities
European High-Yield Market
Overview
Update
Outlook
Pioneer Funds – Euro High Yield
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European High-Yield Market UpdateFebruary 2010
European High-Yield spreads have moved in line with other asset classes as sovereign risks (Greece, PIIGS, Dubai) have come to the fore, although the EHY class has continued to perform relatively well.
Technicals remain fairly resilient given the new issuance since the beginning of the year (€7bn+). Fund flows into EHY have been positive year-to-date in stark comparison to the negative flows that have been seen in the US over the last few weeks.
Fundamentals also remain positive across the EHY universe as 4Q results have been better than expected as well as the operational trends in Jan/Feb.
Default rates have peaked at ~10% in January and will decline in 2010. Rating agency expectations range from 4% to 8%, with most broker forecasts towards the lower end of this range.
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European High-Yield Market UpdateEuro High-Yield Spreads
European High-Yield spreads started the year strongly, tightening from 787 bps to 690 bps mid-January. Since then, as global capital market volatility increased, spreads widened to 771 bps by mid-February before tightening to 745 bps.
Source: Bloomberg, Merrill Lynch Indices as at 22 February 2010
European High-Yield Spreads
0250500750
1000125015001750200022502500
01/0
2/20
07
03/0
9/20
07
05/1
6/20
07
07/2
3/20
07
09/2
7/20
07
12/0
3/20
07
02/1
1/20
08
04/1
8/20
08
06/2
4/20
08
08/2
9/20
08
11/0
4/20
08
01/1
2/20
09
03/1
7/20
09
05/2
5/20
09
07/2
9/20
09
10/0
5/20
09
12/0
9/20
09
02/1
5/20
10
Spre
ad (b
ps)
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European High-Yield Market Update Technicals Remain Balanced
January was a very busy month for European High Yield with over €6bn+ of new issuance, which was well absorbed by the market.65% of the year-to-date issuance has been senior secured.Fund flows into EHY has been positive year-to-date in stark contrast to the negative flows seen in the US overthe last few weeks. This has been a factor in the recent sell-off.
Source: Barclays as at 18 February 2010 Source: JP Morgan, AMG Data Services as at 17 February 2010
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European High-Yield Market UpdateFundamentals Remain Strong
4Q09 earnings season continues to show better-than-expected performance. 77% and 56% of the companies in S&P 500 and Euro STOXX 600 Indices have beaten expectations.
In Euro High Yield, approximately 75% of the companies have reported better-than-expected earnings.
FCF/ Debt at ~5% remains very healthy for the EHY universe. Corporate balance sheets are in much better shape than they have been coming out of past recessions.
The European ratings Upgrade/Downgrade ratio has turned positive. LTM FCF to Debt
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Mar-03 Dec-03 Sep-04 Jun-05 Mar-06 Dec-06 Sep-07 Jun-08 Mar-09
UnadjustedAdjusted for Ratings Chg
Source: Morgan Stanley Research, Bloomberg
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HY Corporates are Hoarding Cash at a Frantic PaceCash is at the highest level in the last thirteen years.
The number of companies hoarding cash is also at the highest level in that same period.
Management teams across the universe are getting the message: Refinancing is not a risk free event.
Because refinancing is not assured, cash levels and Capex needs to come down in order to force an improvement in the corporate risk profile, even though yields on cash balances are now zero.
Capex has dropped to the lowest level on record as corporates have deferred Capex plans and closed plants.
Repairing balance sheets and increasing liquidity to remain flexible has become a mantra with Management Teams especially in this cycle.
Source: Morgan Stanley and Bloomberg as at 30 September 2009
Source: Morgan Stanley and Bloomberg as at 30 September 2009
Source: Morgan Stanley and Bloomberg as at 31 December 2009
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European High-Yield Market Update Default Rates Trending Downwards
Default rates rose throughout the year, and through November 2009 the annual default rate was 10.1%. This figure is lower than the US High-Yield default rate of 13.7% because Euro High Yield did not have nearly as much exposure to risky sectors (Retail, Gaming, Autos, Homebuilders, etc), which experienced higher rates of default. The US market also had a higher number of “covenant light” problem loans used to finance LBO’s.
Cumulative default rates in Europe since June 2007 have reached 12.5%.
EHY default predictions from brokers/rating agencies ranged from 4% to 8%.
The High-Yield market, both in the US and Europe, continues to price in implied default rates, which are significantly higher than the historical average and worst on record. As the markets stabilise, we believe we will continue to see further mean reversion and associated spread compression.
Our expectation of almost average five year cumulative default rates makes the current spread implied default rate of 43.07% at 30 cents recovery and 32.5% at zero cents recovery look overly conservative, and signal substantial value still left in the class.
Source: Moody’s as at 29 January 2010
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Agenda
Investment Capabilities
European High-Yield Market
Overview
Update
Outlook
Pioneer Funds – Euro High Yield
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European High-Yield Market OutlookHistorically Good Post-Recession Performance…
After each recessionary phase, High-Yield returns have been impressive in the first year of recovery.
The latest cycle was no exception with 54% total return in US High Yield, and 70% in Europe for 2009.
We expect, similar to previous cycles, that returns will remain healthy for the next few years.
Source: Credit Suisse as at 31 December 2009
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European High-Yield Market Outlook…Even During Periods of Monetary Policy Tightening
High yield continued to outperform Treasuries following the start of interest rate hikes in both 1994 and 2004.
While the knee-jerk market reaction to a Fed rate increase is often negative, it usually reflects policy makers’belief that the economy is strong enough to withstand higher interest rates. A stronger economy will also be reflected in corporate bond issuers’ improved profitability and greater cash flow to service debt payments –both positives for high yield.
Investment grade and high yield corporate bonds in the aftermath of Fed rate hikes in 1994
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Top-Down Credit AnalysisA First Diagnostic Based on Four Fundamental Corporate Strategic Perspectives
LOW BUSINESS RISK/LOW
FINANCIAL RISK
LOW BUSINESS RISK/HIGH
FINANCIAL RISK
HIGH BUSINESS RISK/LOW
FINANCIAL RISK
HIGH BUSINESS RISK/HIGH
FINANCIAL RISK
Low Business Risk (“LBR”)
Stable earnings over cycle
Defensible margins
Market leadership
Bargaining power
Low operating leverage
High Business Risk (“HBR”)
Volatility of earnings over cycle
Volatility of margins
Fragmented market, follower
Poor bargaining position
High operating leverage
Low Financial Risk (“LFR”)
Below industry average leverage
Flexible liquidity
Adequate maturity profile
Low refinancing risk
Multiple funding sources
Ability to quickly divest assets
Low Financial Risk (“LFR”)
Above industry average leverage
Less flexible liquidity
Unbalanced maturity profile
High refinancing risk
Inability to secure funding sources
Inability to quickly divest assets
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Top-Down Analysis: Sector AllocationAllocation and Seniority Decisions Based on Sector & Cycle Stage
- Shorter interest rate duration- Longer spread duration- More credit exposure
More Aggressive
More Conservative
- Longer interest rate duration- Shorter spread duration- More sovereign exposure- More strategic sectors- Sectors with inelastic demand
Consumer Packaging
RetailIndustrials
Real EstateBanks
Econ
omic
cycle
Time
Aggre
ssive
Defensive
Defensive
CableUtilities
Export IndustriesFood
GamingBanks
Agencies/Quasi sovereign
UtilitiesUtilitiesExport IndustriesExport Industries
FoodFoodGamingGaming
AgenciesAgenciesQuasi SovereignQuasi Sovereign
BanksBanks
Neutral
MORE CONSERVATIVEDEBT
MORE AGGRESSIVEQUASI-EQUITY
SeniorSecured
SeniorSubordinated*
Unsecured
High Business Risk/Low Financial Risk
Low Business Risk/High Financial Risk
Low Low Business Business Risk/Low Risk/Low Financial Financial RiskRisk
Expansion Deceleration Contraction
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Agenda
Investment Capabilities
European High-Yield Market
Pioneer Funds – Euro High Yield
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Pioneer Funds – Euro High Yield Portfolio Overview & Philosophy
Focus on European high-yield bonds
Average duration: 4 years
Average rating: B
Diversification of issuer, industry and credit quality
Flexibility to invest in government bonds or cash for defensive purposes
Active, team-based approach to identify above-average returns across portfolios
Proprietary fundamental and quantitative research conducted by specialist teams
Top-down economic and market research provides a strategic direction for our portfolios, while bottom-up research enables us to uncover unique investment opportunities in the credit universe
We actively manage portfolios within the context of a strict risk control framework
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First Nav Date (A Class) 31 May 2006
Benchmark ML Euro High Yield Constrained
Total AUM (Mil) €201
Total Number of Holdings 77
Fund Inception 5 December 2005
Key FactsPioneer Funds – Euro High Yield
Source: Pioneer Investments as at 31 January 2010. Data refers to Class A EUR Non-Distributing.
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Pioneer Funds – Euro High Yield Class A EUR Non-Distributing
ML Euro High Yield Constrained
Calendar Year Returns 2007 - 2 010
Relative
Pioneer Funds – Euro High Yield
Source: Pioneer Investments as at 29 January 2010. Performance data provided refers to Class A units only, and is based upon NAV net of fees. For details of other unit Classes available, please refer to the prospectus.
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Risk Analysis
R-Squared 0.8157
Relative Information Ratio 0.11
Tracking Error 8.38 %
Beta 0.8518
Standard Deviation (3 Years) 23.09 %
Sharpe Ratio (3 Years) 0.05
Alpha 0.75 %
Pioneer Funds – Euro High Yield
Source: Pioneer Investments as at 29 January 2010. Risk Measures, except Standard Deviation and Sharpe Ratio, are based on Class E Units, which are only offered for public sale in Italy. Standard Deviation and Sharpe Ratio: Lipper.
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Pioneer Funds – Euro High YieldWhat Makes us Different ?
Experienced team in all High-Yield specialities in the US and Europe.Long track record in High-Yield specialities.2009, 2007 and 2006 were years where the Portfolio beat its Europe Open Ended High Yield Bond Morningstar peer group average. This is one of the reasons why in spite of a disappointing 2008, the Portfolio exhibits very strong 1 and 3 year performance versus peers. A large degree of flexibility by tracking error and cash levels differentiate us from peers, making both Pioneer Funds – Euro High Yield and Pioneer Funds – Euro Strategic Bond very flexible strategies.Despite a disappointing performance in 2008, the management team recognised early on the extreme bearish views attached to valuations that did not correspond with companies EV’s in the aftermath of the crisis. As a result of this, active management was applied to extract value from junior pieces that were mispriced by the market.Pioneer Funds – Euro High Yield and Pioneer Funds – Euro Strategic Bond (with a 40% weight in High Yield) ended up 2009 as top and second of peer class.Portfolio exhibits flexibility in its investment strategy and is currently one of the few funds amongst direct competitors to have a significant allocation in cash. This allocation is also something that enables the portfolio to adapt to markets.Although duration and credit quality were largely in line with peers, the outperformance over the year 2009 of Pioneer Funds – Euro High Yield is related to asset allocation and name selection.The strategies were correctly positioned for spread normalisation in 2009. Of 35 peers that outperformed in 2008 ranking in the 1st quartile, 25 ranked in the 4th quartile in 2009.
Peers refers to Europe Open Ended Euro High Yield Bond Morningstar peer group
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Unless otherwise stated all information contained in this document is from Pioneer Investments and is as at 29/01/2010
Pioneer Funds – Euro High Yield and Pioneer Funds – Euro Strategic Bond are sub-funds (the “Sub-Funds”) of Pioneer Funds (the “Fund”), a fonds commun de placement with several separate sub-funds established under the laws of the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg.
Past performance does not guarantee and is not indicative of future results. Unless otherwise stated, all views expressed are those of Pioneer Investments. These views are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions and there can be no assurances that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. Investments involve certain risks, including political and currency risks. Investment return and principal value may go down as well as up and could result in the loss of all capital invested. More recent returns may be different than those shown. Please contact your local sales representative for more current performance results.
This material is not a prospectus and does not constitute an offer to buy or a solicitation to sell any units of the Fund or any services, by or to anyone in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation would be unlawful or in which the person making such offer or solicitation is not qualified to do so or to anyone to whom it is unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. For additional information on the Fund, a free prospectus should be requested from Pioneer Global Investments Limited (“PGIL”), 1 George’s Quay Plaza, George’s Quay, Dublin 2, Ireland. Call +353 1 480 2000 Fax +353 1 449 5000.
This information is not for distribution and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy any securities or services in the United States or in any of its territories or possessions subject to its jurisdiction to or for the benefit of any United States person (being residents and citizens of the United States or partnerships or corporations organized under United States laws). The Fund has not been registered in the United States under the Investment Company Act of 1940 and units of the Fund are not registered in the United States under the Securities Act of 1933.
This document is not intended for and no reliance can be placed on this document by retail clients, to whom the document should not be provided.
The content of this document is approved by PGIL. In the UK, it is directed at professional clients and not at retail clients and it is approved for distribution by Pioneer Global Investments Limited (London Branch), 123 Buckingham Palace Road, London SW1W 9SL, authorised by the Financial Regulator in Ireland and regulated by the Financial Services Authority for the conduct of UK business. The Fund is an unregulated collective investment scheme under the UK Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 and therefore does not carry the protection provided by the UK regulatory system.
Pioneer Funds Distributor, Inc., 60 State Street, Boston, MA 02109 (“PFD”), a U.S.-registered broker-dealer, provides marketing services in connection with the distribution of Pioneer Investments’ products. PFD markets these products to financial intermediaries, both within and outside of the U.S. (in jurisdictions where permitted to do so) for sale to clients who are not United States persons.
Pioneer Investments is a trading name of the Pioneer Global Asset Management S.p.A. group of companies.
For Broker/Dealer use only and not for distribution to the public
Date of First Use: 10 March 2010
Important Information