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Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
PJM Electric Market: Overview and Focal Points
1045
PJM Electric Market
Source: Velocity Suite Intelligent Map Updated August 23, 2010
Page 1 of 15
November 2011
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
PJM Electric Market: Overview and Focal Points
1045
Overview
Market Description:PJM Interconnection is a regional transmission organization (RTO) that coordinates the movement of wholesale electricity in all or parts of 13 states and the District of Columbia, an area that includes more than 51 million people. As of December 31, 2009, it had installed generating capacity of 167,326 megawatts (MW) and over 500 market buyers, sellers and traders of electricity. In 2009 demand peaked at 126.8 GW on August 10, the lowest annual peak since the last transmission integration.
Geography
States covered: All or most of Delaware, District of Columbia, Maryland, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia. Parts of Indiana, Illinois, Kentucky, Michigan, North Carolina and Tennessee.
Reliability region: ReliabilityFirst Corporation (RFC) and SERC Reliability Corporation (SERC)
Balancing authority: PJM. The balancing authority is responsible for managing the minute-to-minute supply/demand balance for electricity within its borders to assure reliability.
Control zones:Allegheny Power Systems (AP) American Electric Power (AEP)Atlantic Electric Power Company, Inc. (AECO) Baltimore Gas and Electric Company (BGE)ComEd Dayton Power and Light Company (DAY)Delmarva Power and Light Company (DPL) Dominion (DOM)Duquesne Light (DUQ) Jersey Central Power and Light Company (JCPL)Metropolitan Edison Company (METED) PPL Electric Utilities (PPL)PECO Energy (PECO) Pennsylvania Electric Company (PENELEC)Potomac Electric Power Company (PEPCO) Public Service Electric and Gas Company (PSEG)Rockland Electric Company (RECO)
Source: PJM 2009 State of the Markets ReportUpdated August 23, 2010
Page 2 of 15
November 2011
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
PJM Electric Market: Overview and Focal Points
1045
Hubs:AEP GEN, AEP-Dayton, Chicago GEN, Chicago, Dominion, Eastern, N. Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, West INT, Western.
RTO/ISO:PJM Interconnection (PJM) operates the region’s power grid and wholesale electric market:
• Energy market: two-settlement (day ahead and real-time) spot market with locational marginal pricing (prices are calculated at each bus every five minutes)• Capacity Markets• Ancillary services markets• Financial transmission rights (FTR) market• Energy and capacity are also traded bilaterally through brokers and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).
PJM 2009 State of the Markets Report (and links to prior annual reports)
Market Monitoring Unit: Monitoring Analytics, LLC – External Market Monitor
Generation/Supply :
Marginal fuel type (2009): Coal (74%) and natural gas (22%)Generating capacity (summer 2009): 167,454 MWCapacity reserve (summer 2009): 40,649 MWReserve margin (summer 2009): 32%
Source: PJM 2009 State of the Markets ReportUpdated August 23, 2010
Page 3 of 15
November 2011
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
PJM Electric Market: Overview and Focal Points
1045
Demand
All time peak demand: 144,644 MW (Set August 2, 2006)
Summer Peak Demand (MW):2006: 144,6442007: 139,428 2008: 130,1002009: 126,805
Peak demand change (2008-2009): 2.5% Decline
Prices
Annual Average Day-Ahead Price All Hours (MWh):
PJM Western Hub - A basket of 109 buses from Erie PA to Washington DC (Derived from Energy Velocity data)2006: $50.07/MWh2007: $57.00/MWh2008: $69.88/MWh2009: $38.71/MWh
Contact Information:For questions regarding the material in the PJM section please contact out staff at:
Source: PJM 2009 State of the Markets Report Updated September 7, 2010
Page 4 of 15
November 2011
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
PJM Annual Average Bilateral Prices
Source: Derived from Platts data.
PJM Electric Market: Annual Bilateral Prices
1047Updated May 13, 2009
Annual Average Day Ahead On Peak Prices ($/MWh)2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 5-Year Avg
Mass Hub $69.85 $77.39 $91.55 $46.24 $56.18 $68.23Ny Zone G $75.95 $83.51 $100.99 $49.80 $59.48 $73.94NY Zone J $85.96 $94.15 $112.63 $55.77 $65.76 $82.84NY Zone A $58.70 $64.02 $68.34 $35.54 $43.89 $54.09PJM West $61.90 $71.15 $83.70 $44.60 $53.68 $63.00
Page 5 of 15
November 2011
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
Daily Average of PJM Day-Ahead Prices - All Hours
PJM Electric Market: Last Month’s RTO Prices
Source: Derived from Bloomberg data1131
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
$125
$150
$175
$200O
ct-01
Oct-
04
Oct-
07
Oct-
10
Oct-
13
Oct-
16
Oct-
19
Oct-
22
Oct-
25
Oct-
28
Oct-
31
Pric
e ($
/MW
h)
N Illinois HubEastern HubWestern HubDominion Hub
30 Day Rolling Average
$0$25$50$75
$100$125$150
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Updated: November 01, 2011
Page 6 of 15
November 2011
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
Daily Average of PJM Day-Ahead Prices - All Hours
PJM Electric Market: RTO Prices
Source: Derived from Bloomberg data1048
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
$125
$150
$175
$200
$225
$250Ja
n-10
Feb-
10M
ar-1
0Ap
r-10
May
-10
Jun-
10Ju
l-10
Aug-
10Se
p-10
Oct-
10No
v-10
Dec-
10Ja
n-11
Feb-
11M
ar-1
1Ap
r-11
May
-11
Jun-
11Ju
l-11
Aug-
11Se
p-11
Oct-
11
Pric
e ($
/MW
h)
N Illinois HubEastern HubWestern HubDominion Hub
30 Day Rolling Average
$0
$40
$80
$120
$160
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Updated: November 01, 2011
Page 7 of 15
November 2011
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
Eastern Daily Bilateral Day-Ahead On-Peak Prices
PJM Electric Market: Eastern Bilateral Prices
Source: Derived from Platts data1049
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250Ja
n-10
Feb-
10M
ar-1
0Ap
r-10
May
-10
Jun-
10Ju
l-10
Aug-
10Se
p-10
Oct
-10
Nov
-10
Dec
-10
Jan-
11Fe
b-11
Mar
-11
Apr-1
1M
ay-1
1Ju
n-11
Jul-1
1Au
g-11
Sep-
11O
ct-1
1
Into CinergyPJM WestDominion HubWest New YorkMass Hub
Monthly Average
$0$25$50$75
$100$125$150
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Pric
e ($
/MW
h)
Updated: November 01, 2011
Page 8 of 15
November 2011
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
Eastern Daily Bilateral Day-Ahead On-Peak Prices
PJM Electric Market: Last Month’s Eastern Bilateral Prices
Source: Derived from Platts data13562
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250O
ct-0
1
Oct
-03
Oct
-05
Oct
-07
Oct
-09
Oct
-11
Oct
-13
Oct
-15
Oct
-17
Oct
-19
Oct
-21
Oct
-23
Oct
-25
Oct
-27
Oct
-29
Oct
-31
Into CinergyPJM WestWest New YorkMass HubDominion Hub
Monthly Average
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Pric
e ($
/MW
h)
Updated: November 01, 2011
Page 9 of 15
November 2011
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
Implied Heat Rates at Eastern Trading Points - Weekly Avgs.
PJM Electric Market: Eastern Implied Heat Rates
Source: Derived from Platts on-peak electric and natural gas price data1138
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000Ja
n-10
Feb-
10M
ar-1
0Ap
r-10
May
-10
Jun-
10Ju
l-10
Aug-
10Se
p-10
Oct-
10No
v-10
Dec-
10Ja
n-11
Feb-
11M
ar-1
1Ap
r-11
May
-11
Jun-
11Ju
l-11
Aug-
11Se
p-11
Oct-
11
Impl
ied
Hea
t Rat
e (B
tu/k
Wh)
East New York Zone J-Transco Zone 6 NYPJM West-Columbia Gas AppalachiaWest New York-Niagara Mass Hub-Tennessee Zone 6
Updated: November 01, 2011
Page 10 of 15
November 2011
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
Weekly Power Generation & Temps. - Mid Atlantic
PJM Electric Market: Generation Output and Temperatures
Source: Derived from EEI and NOAA data1113
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Ele
ctric
Gen
erat
ion
(GW
h)
2006-10 Range2011
-80-60-40-20
020406080
Deg
ree
Day
sD
evia
tion
from
Nor
mal
Updated: November 02, 2011
Page 11 of 15
November 2011
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
Weekly Power Generation & Temps. - Central Industrial Region
PJM Electric Market: CI Generation Output and Temperatures
Source: Derived from EEI and NOAA data1114
-80-60-40-20
020406080
Deg
ree
Day
sD
evia
tion
from
Nor
mal
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,00014,00016,00018,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Ele
ctric
Gen
erat
ion
(GW
h)
2006-10 Range2011
Updated: November 02, 2011
Page 12 of 15
November 2011
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight @ FERC.gov
PJM, NYISO and ISO-NE Capacity Prices
PJM Electric Market: RTO Capacity Prices
1146
RPM Auction Clearing Prices by Locational Delivery Area (LDA)
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
BRA BRA BRA BRA BRA BRA BRA
2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014
$/M
W-D
ay
RTOAPSMAACSWMAACEMAACDPL-SouthPS-North (No NJ)PSEGPEPCO
Note: PJM values are for Base Residual Auctions only. ISO-NE results for 2010/2011 and 2011/2012 are based on preliminary FCM auction before pro-rationing and EAS adjustment.Source: Derived from PJM, NYISO and ISO-NE data Updated May 27, 2011
Page 13 of 15
November 2011
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
PJM West Electric Forward Price Curves and Implied Heat Rates
PJM Electric Market: Forward Price Curve
Source: Derived from Nymex data1052
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Dec-
11
Jan-
12
Feb-
12
Mar
-12
Apr-1
2
May
-12
Jun-
12
Jul-1
2
Aug-
12
Sep-
12
Oct-1
2
Nov-
12
Impl
ied
Hea
t Rat
e
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
Ele
ctric
Pric
e ($
/MW
h)
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
Gas
Pric
e ($
MM
Btu
)
PJM West Columbia Gas Appalachia
Updated: November 04, 2011
Page 14 of 15
November 2011
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
PJM Western Hub Forward and Swap Volumes
PJM Electric Market: Physical & Financial Market Volumes
Notes: ICE on-peak forward (physical) and swap (financial) volumes are for PJM’s Western Hub and include monthly, dual monthly, quarterly, and calendar year contracts traded for each month
Source: Derived from ICE data1050
0
50
100
150
200
250
300Ja
n-11
Feb-
11M
ar-1
1Ap
r-11
May
-11
Jun-
11Ju
l-11
Aug-
11Se
p-11
Oct-
11No
v-11
Dec-
11Ja
n-12
Feb-
12M
ar-1
2Ap
r-12
May
-12
Jun-
12Ju
l-12
Aug-
12Se
p-12
Oct-
12No
v-12
Dec-
12
Thou
sand
s of
GW
h
Updated: November 02, 2011
Page 15 of 15
November 2011