27
MICHAEL DALL Lead Economist Barbour ABI Place North West AGM, Manchester, 22nd May 2014
| Date post: | 13-Jan-2015 |
| Category: |
Real Estate |
| Upload: | place-north-west |
| View: | 167 times |
| Download: | 0 times |
MICHAEL DALL
Lead Economist
Barbour ABI
Place North West AGM, Manchester, 22nd May 2014
About UBM
Barbour ABI is owned by UBM plc and part of the UBM Live Built Environment division.
We are part of the UK’s largest Built Environment focussed set of brands in the alongside Building, BD, and Ecobuild.
UBM - global marketing and communications service, 5,500 staff. In 2013 it generated revenue of more than £793m and an operating profit of
£186m.
Owned by UBM, some of our sister companies include:
Sales leads/project tracking
Client/Competitor monitoring
Market analysis
Barbour ABI Services
Working with Government
Lead Economist, Michael Dall provides:
• Context and commentary around the Construction sector and the wider economy in general
• Detailed sector and regional analysis
• CPA/Barbour ABI Index (produced in association with Noble Francis, Economics Director of the CPA) with activity reports
across fifteen sectors within Construction.
Partnering with Barbour ABI we will be accessing virtually a census of new orders data, to produce estimates of
New Orders in Construction.
JACKIE JONES, Deputy Director, ONS
By joining forces with experts in the field of handling and publishing construction data, we hope that accessing
the pipeline can be made increasingly user-friendly.
PAUL MORRELL, Government Chief Construction Advisor, HM Government
www.uk-cip.org.uk
Construction market analysis
UK Economy
UK economyStop start recoveryStrong recent growth
Source: ONS
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
330,000
340,000
350,000
360,000
370,000
380,000
390,000
400,000
QonQ Growth (%) GDP (£million)
GD
P G
row
th (
%)
GD
P £
mil
lio
n
UK economyComparatively prolonged downturnMuch improved 2013
Source: OECD
2007
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2008
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2009
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2010
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2011
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2012
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
Canada France Germany Italy
Japan United Kingdom United States
Index 2008 = 100
UK economyBroad growth
Source: Markit / CIPS
UK economyFalling UnemploymentLow inflation
Source: ONS
Dec-F
eb 2
009
Mar
-May
200
9
Jun-
Aug 2
009
Sep-N
ov 2
009
Dec-F
eb 2
010
Mar
-May
201
0
Jun-
Aug 2
010
Sep-N
ov 2
010
Dec-F
eb 2
011
Mar
-May
201
1
Jun-
Aug 2
011
Sep-N
ov 2
011
Dec-F
eb 2
012
Mar
-May
201
2
Jun-
Aug 2
012
Sep-N
ov 2
012
Dec-F
eb 2
013
Mar
-May
201
3
Jun-
Aug 2
013
Sep-N
ov 2
013
Dec-F
eb 2
014
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
Unemployment Rate (%)
UK economySpare capacity
Source: ONS / Bank of England
UK economyHouse price bubble?
Source: ONS
2004 Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug2009 Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug2014
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Annual House Price Inflation Consumer Price Inflation
Rat
e (%
)
UK economyDepends on where you live
Source: ONS
UK
England
Wales
Scotland
Northern Ireland
North East
North West
Yorks & The Humber
East Midlands
West Midlands
East
London
South East
South West
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0
8.0
8.5
4.9
0.8
0.3
4.1
3.1
5.3
5.0
4.4
6.6
17.0
6.1
5.8
Annual House Price Change (%)
UK economyBusiness Investment increasing but room to improve
Source: ONS / Bank of England
Construction Sector
Construction sectorImproved 2013Solid start to 2014
Source: ONS
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
QonQ Growth (%) Output (£million)
Ou
tpu
t G
row
th (
%)
Ou
tpu
t £
mil
lio
n
North West ConstructionSevere downturn in 08/9Better performance in 2013
Source: ONS
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
QonQ Growth (%) Output (£million)
Ou
tpu
t G
row
th (
%)
Ou
tpu
t (
£ m
illi
on
)
North West ConstructionFourth largest in UK in the past year by output
Lond
on
South
Eas
t
East o
f Eng
land
North
Wes
t
Scotla
nd
South
Wes
t
Wes
t Midl
ands
Yorks
hire
& the
Humbe
r
East M
idlan
ds
Wale
s
North
Eas
t£0
£5,000
£10,000
£15,000
£20,000
£25,000 £23,789
£17,693
£12,916£12,090
£10,127 £9,744£8,996 £8,678
£6,686
£4,466 £3,875
Construction Output (£million)
Ou
tpu
t (£
mil
lio
n)
Source: ONS
North West Construction
Third largest by value of new construction projects
Source: ONS / Barbour ABI
Lond
on
South
Eas
t
North
Wes
t
Scotla
nd
South
Wes
t
Yorks
& H
umbe
r
Wes
t Midl
ands
East M
idlan
ds
North
Eas
t
Wale
s
East o
f Eng
land
£0
£500
£1,000
£1,500
£2,000
£2,500
£3,000
£3,500
£3,069
£1,709
£1,479£1,326
£1,159 £1,074£943
£854
£629£521
£268
Average New Order Value 2013 (£ million)
Contracts awardedDominated by residential in past year
Source: Barbour ABI
32%
22%8%
8%
9%
11%
10%
Residential
Infrastructure
Commercial & Retail
Industrial
Hotel, leisure & sport
Medical & health
Education
Contracts AwardedMain location is Merseyside
Source: Barbour ABI
22%
7%
21%
1%
25%
25%
0% 0%
Cheshire
Cumbria
Greater Manchester
Isle of Man
Lancashire
Merseyside
Yorkshire
Staffordshire
Sector ProfileStrength in healthcare, hotel,industrial
Source: Barbour ABI
Commercial and Retail
Civic and Public
Infrastructure
Education
Residential
Industrial
Hotel, Leisure & Sport
Medical and Healthcare
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
NW/UK
Location Quotient
Growth sectorsGrowth in healthcare, hotel, industrial
Source: Barbour ABI
Northern England
Commercial and Retail
Civic and Public
Infrastructure
Education
Residential
Industrial
Hotel, Leisure & Sport
Medical and Healthcare
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
Location Quotient
Top Projects
Project Title County Project Value (£mns) Client
ROYAL LIVERPOOL HOSPITAL Merseyside 335Royal Liverpool and Broadgreen Hospital NHS Trust
A6 TO MANCHESTER AIRPORT RELIEF ROAD - SEMMMS ROUTE Cheshire 100 Stockport Metropolitan Borough Council
GREENGATE DEVELOPMENTGreater Manchester 100 Pinnacle Developments (NW)
SILOS DIRECT ENCAPSULATION PLANT - PRELIMINARY WORKS Cumbria 100 Sellafield Limited (AMEC)
RIVERSIDE TERMINAL - SEAFORTH DOCKS Merseyside 90 Peel Ports Limited
UNIVERSITY OF SALFORD STUDENT RESIDENCESGreater Manchester 85.4 University Of Salford
MANCHESTER CITY ETIHAD STADIUM - EXPANSIONGreater Manchester 60 Manchester City Football Club
ALDI DISTRIBUTION CENTRE - LOGISTICS NORTH Lancashire 57.6 Aldi Stores Limited
BICKERSHAW SOUTH Lancashire 50 Wigan Council / Homes & Communities Agency
RE:NEW PROJECT - CHESTER Cheshire 37 Cheshire West & Chester Council
Renew Project ChesterGreengate Development
Royal Liverpool Hospital
Pipeline Projects
Project Title County Project Value (£mns) Client
HOOTON PARK SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FACILITY Merseyside 180 Biossence
HAHNEMANN HOUSE - STUDENT ACCOMMODATION Merseyside 100 Maghull Group
AMAZON DISTRIBUTION WAREHOUSE Merseyside 100 Amazon UK
WOODFORD AERODROME MIXED DEVELOPMENT Cheshire 100 Redrow Homes (South Midlands) Limited
NO.2 ST PETER'S SQUARE Greater Manchester 80 Mosley Street Ventures Limited
1 SPINNINGFIELDS - MANCHESTER Greater Manchester 80 Allied London Properties Limited
ROSSFIELD PARK - 500 HOUSES Cheshire 50 The Peel Group
BREWERY VILLAGE - LIVERPOOL Merseyside 50 Robert Cain Brewery Company Limited
INDUSTRIAL WAREHOUSE AND OFFICES Lancashire 50 Canmoor Developments
COTTON BUILDING - SPINNINGFIELDS Greater Manchester 30 Allied London Properties Limited
Brewery Village No.2 St Peter’s Square1 Spinningfields
Outlook
Source: ONS / OBR
UK economy much improved in last 12 months
Strong growth expected this year and next
Dangers of focus on consumption over exports and investment?
Construction sector improved recently
Forecast suggest strong growth
North West likely to mirror this pattern
Too much exposure to housing?
2012 2013 2014 (f) 2015 (f)
GDP Growth 0.3% 1.8% 2.7% 2.3%
2012 2013 2014 (f) 2015(f)
Construction Growth -8.2% 1.1% 4.5% 4.8%
Source: ONS / Construction Products Association
