PLAINS ELEVATED

CONVECTION AT NIGHT

(PECAN) SCIENCE OVERVIEW AND EDO

ASSESSMENT

OFAP Meeting Spring 2013

Corresponding PIs SPO: David B. Parsons, U. Oklahoma (dparsons@ou.edu) EDO: Bart Geerts, U. Wyoming (geerts@uwyo.edu)

Co-Investigators Tammy M. Weckwerth, NCAR Conrad Ziegler, NSSL (NOAA rep) Richard Ferrare, Langley (NASA rep) David Turner (DOE ARM rep)

Additional Steering

Committee members

Belay Demoz, Howard U. John Hanesiak, U. Manitoba Kevin Knupp, U. Alabama Matthew Parker, N. Carolina State U. Russ Schumacher, CSU Josh Wurman, CSWR

One-page

statements of interest

28 total from 21 organizations; 4 are international 59 PIs & co-PIs up to 17 proposals to NSF

PECAN Plains Elevated Convection At Night

Field phase 1 June –15 July 2015

Funding agencies

NSF AGS; NOAA;

NASA; DOE Participating universities 17

Education & outreach

30+ students in the

field

NSF LAOF requests: UW King Air (120 flight hours) with WCL

3 NCAR ISSs (one of them mobile) with 120 sondes each NCAR ISS-449 profiler

S-PolKa (NCAR) + 3 DOWs (CSWR)

PECAN science Key Topic Key Hypothesis

Initiation and early evolution of

elevated convection (e.g.,

Wilson and Roberts 2006)

Nocturnal convection is more likely to be initiated and

sustained when it occurs in a region of mesoscale

convergence above the SBL

Internal structure, microphysics,

and dynamics of nocturnal

MCSs (e.g., French and Parker

2010)

The microphysical and dynamical processes in

developing and mature stratiform regions of nocturnal

MCSs are critical to their maintenance and upscale

growth through determining the structure and intensity of

cold pools, bores and solitary waves that interact with

the SBL

Vertical displacements by

undular bores and wave-like

features (e.g., Koch and Clark

1999)

Bores and associated wave/solitary disturbances

generated by convection play a significant role in

elevated, nocturnal MCSs through lifting parcels above

the SBL to levels at or near their level of free convection

Storm-scale numerical weather

prediction (e.g., Surcel et al.

2010)

A mesoscale network of surface, boundary-layer and

upper-level measurements will enable advanced data

assimilation systems to significantly improve the

prediction of convection initiation. Advances in QPF

associated with nocturnal convection will require either

greatly improved convective parameterizations, or,

more likely, horizontal and vertical resolutions sufficient to

capture both SBL disturbances and convection

scanning radars: › fixed: S-PolKa, plus WSR-88D

and ARM SGP radars

› mobile: 6 X-band + 2 C-band radars

aircraft: › clear-air:

UW King Air with lidars

NASA DC-8 with LASE, interferometer

› storm-penetrating: NOAA P-3 with X-band fore/aft

scanning tail radar

A-10 may be requested separ-ately to participate in PECAN

surface met & sounding vehicles

PECAN Integrated Sounding Array (PISA) › concept: a PISA unit profiles the

kinematic, thermodynamic, and moisture structure of the lower troposphere.

› components: each unit has surface meteorology

a radiosonde

wind profiler (radar/sodar/lidar)

moisture and/or temperature profiler (DIAL, Raman lidar, microwave radiometer, AERI …)

› array: 10 complete units enabled by 15

participating institutions

6 fixed PISA units

4 mobile PISA units

PECAN platforms

• Key challenge: deployment of mobile facilities at night ahead of the target.

• Solutions:

• Inter-IOP radar & PISA mobility only (not intra-IOP relocations);

• Advance selection & characterization of potential sites;

• NSSL forecast & nowcast guidance.

ID lead PI instrument source instruments

fixed profiling units (FP): stationary during the duration of PECAN, operating continuously FP1 David Turner ARM CART Central Facility wind lidar, Raman lidar, AERI, MR, sfc met and sfc

fluxes, radiosonde unit, four 915 MHz WPs with a typical spacing of 10 km

FP2 Rich Clark + Belay Demoz

Millersville University 1000 m tethersonde profiles of met variables/turbulence, sfc met and sfc fluxes, backscatter lidar, radiosonde unit, and sodar

Howard Univ. and NASA/GSFC ALVICE Raman lidar & GLOW and/or Leosphere wind lidars, MR

FP3 David Parsons + Volker Wulfmeyer

NCAR EOL ISS-449, mini DIAL

University of Hohenheim, Germany

scanning DIAL (water vapor) and scanning rotational Raman lidar (temperature)

Colorado State University radiosonde unit University of Manitoba MR and wind lidar

FP4 Tammy Weckwerth NCAR EOL ISS with 915 MHz WP, mini DIAL, GAUS, sfc met

Radiometrics MR Naval Postgrad School flux tower, sodar, tethersonde

FP5 Tammy Weckwerth NCAR EOL ISS with 915 MHz WP, sodar, mini DIAL, GAUS, sfc met

Radiometrics MR FP6 John Hanesiak University of Manitoba MR, wind lidar, AERI

DOE radiosonde unit & sfc met (ARM SPG Larned site)

mobile profiling units (MP): operate during IOPs only MP1 David Turner University of Oklahoma, NSSL CLAMPS: AERI, MR, and scanning Doppler lidar

University of Oklahoma radiosonde & sfc met

MP2 Kevin Knupp University of Alabama Huntsville MIPS truck

scanning Doppler lidar, 915 MHz WP, MR, sodar, ceilometer, sfc met, radiosonde unit

MP3 David Parsons, H. Bluestein, Wayne Feltz

Naval Postgraduate School TWOLF Doppler lidar & FM-CW radar (both truck-mounted ) + sfc met

University of Wisconsin AERI + multi-spectral aerosol lidar + radiosonde unit

MP4 T. Weckwerth NCAR EOL Mobile ISS with 915 MHz WP, MGAUS, sfc met

PISA b

uilding

block

s

PECAN d

omain

frequency of the

nocturnal low level jet in July (# nights/ m)

# of nocturnal MCS initiations per month in July (within 350 km of

centroid)

all fixed PISA (FP) units are within 75 km of a S-band radar (green circle)

Hays: preferred base for mobile ground units and Operations Center

Will Rogers: preferred base for the NASA DC-8

and NOAA P-3

Salina: preferred base for the UWKA

*

*

SLN

OKC

PECAN deployment strategy mission type target # IOPs

convection

initiation

5

MCS dynamics

&microphysics

10

bores 5

example: MCS mission

Mobile platforms are

deployed ahead of

target MCS.

Mobile radars and

PISA units remain fixed

during IOPs not just for

safety, but also to

sample both the storm

and the broader

environment (LLJ, BL

evolution).

Aircraft move with the

MCS.

LAOF FACILITIES & LOCATIONS

NCAR S-Pol and Ka-band Radar (site

near Hays, KS)

ISS 449 MHz 7-panel wind profiler (120

sondes) south of Hays, KS

ISS 915 MHz wind profiler (120 sondes)

and sodar near Kearney, NE

ISS 915 MHz wind profiler (120 sondes)

and sodar north of Goodland KS

Mobile ISS (120 sondes) based at

Hays, KS

UW King Air (WCR and Raman Lidar)

based at Salina, KS

DOW6, DOW7, Rapid-scan DOW

based at Hays, KS

NCAR/EOL Project and Data

Management Support (pre-planning,

operations and E&O) based at Hays,

KS

OPERATIONS

1 June – 15 July 2014 (plus facility set-up and testing)

20 nocturnal IOPs in 45 days

Operations Area:

KS and OK for ground operations

Central US for flight operations

Distributed Operation Centers

Main Operations Center in Hays, KS

NASA and NOAA Aircraft in Oklahoma City, OK

UW King Air in Salina, KS

Ground-based systems maintenance base in Hays, KS

Coordination with NASA, NOAA, DOE/ARM

REQUESTED DATA MANAGEMENT

SUPPORT

Web services (PECAN page, mailing lists, related links etc.)

Field Catalog with real-time GIS displays including all mobile and

airborne platforms

Catalog Earth

Full suite of operational, model and research products available in

catalog

A variety of report forms for operations documentation (e.g., status,

operations plan of the day)

Assist with formulation/implementation of a data policy

Data questionnaire

Collection of routine operational and research data in the region and

from other Weather Centers (NCEP, ECMWF, UKMO, etc.)

Composite surface and upper air datasets

Centralized long-term PECAN Archive at EOL

“Merged’ radar data for the archive

AIRCRAFT CONSIDERATIONS

Pre-planning and coordination with FAA required

Set-up & support of aircraft operations bases responsibility of respective

aircraft providers

GIS Tool needed at Ops Center to facilitate real-time multi-aircraft

coordination

Reliance on multi-path communications that connects Ops Center, aircraft

and other key ground facilities (not a trivial task)

Dedicated Aircraft Coordinator at Ops center

Aircraft bases will have hangars and/or emergency evacuation plans in

place

Participation of A-10 unlikely

GROUND-BASED ISSUES

SPOLKA

No major challenges for facility deployment

24/7 operations of the S-PolKa radar – attended/unattended

Crew duty limits will apply

Availability of Ka band radar is uncertain

ISS/MISS/Profiler

EOL does not have 4 ISS – alternate involves MISS and 449 profiler

Crew duty limits will apply

Systems will remain stationary once IOP starts

Additional help from PIs/students needed to support operations

Timeliness of soundings onto the GTS dependent dependent on site-specific communications

Other

Reliance on multi-path communications that connects Ops Center and key ground-based facilities

Dedicated Ground Coordinator at Ops Center

Availability of 3 NCAR mini-DIAL water vapor lidar highly unlikely

Pre-selection of mobile sites responsibility of PIs

Night time severe weather will require full forecast/nowcast team support during IOPs for alerts, warnings and ground site take-cover/evacuation

CONCLUSIONS

PECAN is FEASIBLE (no major concerns)

Direct schedule conflict with GOAmazon2015 (Option 1 and 4) & ICE-

L

Safety and security of participants working at night in severe weather

Consolidation of operations bases should be considered

Lots of students needed to assist in facility operations

Special funds needed for FPS and CDS operations and data

management support