The Scotstat Network of Local Government and Public Body Analysts Survey Conference
The Scottish House Condition Survey
Ian Máté
Plan
1.SHCS Background
2.Working with Local Authorities
3.Future?
The Scottish House Condition Survey (SHCS)
• 3,000 occupied households every year;
• 2-stage Survey:• Social Survey – 3,000 variables• Physical Survey – 400 variables
• Random Sample of each Local Authority - unclustered
• Yearly minimum of 80 surveys per Local Authority
SHCS Annual Sample Size by LA
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350M
oray
Abe
rdee
n C
ity
Ang
us
Sou
th A
yrsh
ire
Eile
an S
iar
Fal
kirk
Wes
t Lot
hian
Mid
loth
ian
Sco
ttish
Bor
ders
Dun
dee
City
Per
th a
nd K
inro
ss
Eas
t Ayr
shire
Arg
yll a
nd B
ute
Abe
rdee
nshi
re Eas
t
Eas
t Lot
hian
Cla
ckm
anna
nshi
re
Stir
ling
Hig
hlan
d
Eas
t
Ork
ney
Isla
nds
Nor
th A
yrsh
ire
She
tland
Isla
nds
Inve
rcly
de
Ren
frew
shire
Dum
frie
s an
d
Wes
t
Sou
th L
anar
kshi
re
Nor
th L
anar
kshi
re Fife
City
of E
dinb
urgh
Gla
sgow
City
Valid
sam
ple
siz
e
What is the SHCS?
• Purpose: To measure progress and inform policy;
• Outcome: Measures the quality of people’s experience of housing against the quality of housing in Scotland.
• SHCS can set a baseline by area (National, Urban/ rural, SIMD), Tenure and Dwelling Type etc - ANNUALLY
• Provides a Local Authority picture annually but has to use 3 years worth of data so currently uses 2005/06, 2007 and
2008 survey data.
• We publish an annual LA report on the web using 3 years worth of data.
The main policy areas covered:
• Scottish Housing Quality Standard• Fuel Poverty• Fuel use• Energy Efficiency • Insulation• Dwelling Amenities• Barrier-free• Age and type of stock
SHCS Background
Social Data;Physical Data;Social and Physical Data
• Households and Energy Efficiency;• Health and dwelling conditions;• Housing and older people;• Housing and Noise;• Barrier-free (housing and disability); • Fuel Poverty
Scottish Housing Quality Standard
SHQS Fail by Tenure by Year
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2007 2008Year
% h
ou
se
ho
lds
Fa
ilin
g S
HQ
S
owner-occupier
LA/other public
HA/co-op
private-rented
The Scottish Housing Quality Standard % Failure rate of Social Housing by Local Authority
% fail
0102030405060708090
100
Fuel Poverty
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Survey Year
Per
cent
age
Fuel Poor
Extreme Fuel Poor
Fuel PovertySHCS 2005/06 - 2008 Weighted % of Households in Fuel Poverty
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Clackm
ann
ansh
ire
West L
othian
West D
unb
artonsh
ire
Dund
ee C
ity
Abe
rdeen
City
Eas
t Ayrsh
ire
Renfrew
shire
Eas
t Dunbartons
hire
Eas
t Lothia
n
City
of Edin
burgh
Midloth
ian
Falkirk
Glas
gow
City
Stirlin
g
North A
yrsh
ire
North La
narkshire
Inverc
lyde
Eas
t Renfre
wsh
ire
Sou
th Ayrs
hire
Sou
th Lana
rkshire
Fife
Perth
and
Kinross
Moray
Highla
nd
Ang
us
Argy
ll and B
ute
Sco
ttish B
orde
rs
Abe
rdeen
shire
Dum
fries an
d Gallow
ay
She
tland
Isla
nds
Ork
ney Islan
ds
Eilea
n Sia
r
Sco
tland
Houses are becoming more energy efficient – but still a long way to go% of dwellings
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Survey period
Good (7 - 10)
Moderate (3 - 6)
Poor (0 - 2)
National Home Energy Rating
New Data
• Energy efficiency of up to 2 extensions• Barrier-free – more coherent• Heating and boiler details• Insulation – more detail
• Council Tax band, amount and discounts;
• On or off the gas grid;
Physical form changes
• Leaded windows• Stone type • Stone technique• Shutters• Roofing materials
Traditional building materials, Local sustainable sources, Supporting craft courses and trades.
New data challenges - EPCsTotal EPCs by month
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Month
No.
of E
PC
s
Total EPCs 153,099
New challenges – EPCsEPCs by Transaction Type
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
New Build
Not Sale/Rental
Private Rented
Social Rented
Other Sale
Marketed Sale
Data to 30/08/09
New challenges – EPCs
% EPCs and Stock by Tenure
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Owner-occupier LA/other public Private-rented Other New build
Tenure
% o
f d
we
llin
gs
% of EPCs by Tenure
% of Tenure
Emulated EPC Energy Efficiency Rating
EPC Energy Efficiency Rating
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
A B C D E F GRating
% o
fd
wellin
gs
2007
2008
EPC Energy Efficiency RatingWall Property-Type Roof-Insulation-Thickness
Wall Built-Form SAP-Floor-Dimensions
Roof Multiple-Glazed-Proportion SAP-Floor-Dimension
Roof Multiple-Glazing-Type Floor
Floor Extensions-Count Floor-Construction
Window Glazed-Area Floor-Insulation
Main-Heating Habitable-Room-Count Heat-Loss-Perimeter
Main-Heating-Controls Heated-Room-Count Total-Floor-Area
Hot-Water Low-Energy-Lighting Room-Height
Lighting Measurement-Type SAP-Floor-Dimension
Secondary-Heating Mechanical-Ventilation SAP-Floor-Dimensions
Has-Hot-Water-Cylinder Open-Fireplaces-Count SAP-Building-Part
Has-Heated-Separate-Conservatory Photovoltaic-Supply SAP-Building-Parts
Energy-Rating-Current Solar-Water-Heating SAP-Heating
Energy-Rating-Potential Conservatory-Type Main-Heating-Data-Source
Environmental-Impact-Current SAP-Building-Parts Main-Heating-Category
Environmental-Impact-Potential SAP-Building-Part SAP-Main-Heating-Code
EPC Energy Efficiency RatingEnergy-Consumption-Current Building-Part-Number BEDF-Revision-Number
Energy-Consumption-Potential Identifier Main-Fuel-Type
CO2-Emissions-Current Construction-Age-Band Main-Heating-Control
CO2-Emissions-Potential Wall-Construction Water-Heating-Code
CO2-Emissions-Current-Per-Floor-Area Wall-Insulation-Type Water-Heating-Fuel
CO2-Emissions-Current-Per-Floor-AreaPotential Roof-Construction Secondary-Heating-Type
Lighting-Cost-Current Roof-Insulation-Location Secondary-Fuel-Type
Lighting-Cost-Potential Roof-Insulation-Thickness Cylinder-Size
Heating-Cost-Current SAP-Floor-Dimensions Cylinder-Insulation-Type
Heating-Cost-Potential SAP-Floor-Dimension Cylinder-Insulation-Thickness
Hot-Water-Cost-Current Floor Cylinder-Thermostat
Hot-Water-Cost-Potential Floor-Construction Heat-Emitter-Type
Loft insulation Floor-Insulation SAP-Heating
Typical-Saving Heat-Loss-Perimeter SAP-Energy-Source
Energy-Performance-Rating Total-Floor-Area Wind-Turbines-Count
Environmental-Impact-Rating Room-Height Wind-Turbines-Terrain-Type
Low energy lighting SAP-Floor-Dimension Meter-Type
EPC Energy Efficiency RatingTypical-Saving SAP-Floor-Dimension Main-Gas
Energy-Performance-Rating Floor SAP-Energy-Source
Environmental-Impact-Rating Heat-Loss-Perimeter SAP-Deselected-Improvements
Solar water heating Total-Floor-Area Deselected-Improvement-Measure
Typical-Saving Room-Height SAP-Deselected-Improvements
Energy-Performance-Rating SAP-Floor-Dimension SAP-Property-Details
Environmental-Impact-Rating SAP-Floor-Dimensions SAP-Data
Double glazing SAP-Building-Part Insurance-Details
Typical-Saving SAP-Building-Part Insurer
Energy-Performance-Rating Building-Part-Number Policy-No
Environmental-Impact-Rating Identifier Effective-Date
Wind turbine Construction-Age-Band Expiry-Date
Typical-Saving Wall-Construction PI-Limit
Energy-Performance-Rating Wall-Insulation-Type Insurance-Details
Environmental-Impact-Rating Roof-Construction Roof-Insulation-Location
Why I wanted to speak today
• 32 Local Authorities based on historical accident and geography;
• 5,000,000 people;• 2,300,000 dwellings;
• Is it too difficult to have a combined Housing Survey covering all Local Authorities’ needs on an Annual basis?
Why I wanted to speak today
• THE SHCS can give a Local Authority estimate annually but, according to our ‘rules’ has to use 3 years worth of data.
• So we currently use 2005/06, 2007 and 2008 survey data.
30 50 75 100 150 200 250 3001%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
Confidence Interval
Sample Size
Result in %
30 50 75 100
1% 3.6 2.8 2.3 2.0
2% 5.0 3.9 3.2 2.7
5% 7.8 6.0 4.9 4.3
10% 10.7 8.3 6.8 5.9
15% 12.8 9.9 8.1 7.0
20% 14.3 11.1 9.1 7.8
25% 15.5 12.0 9.8 8.5
30% 16.4 12.7 10.4 9.0
35% 17.1 13.2 10.8 9.3
40% 17.5 13.6 11.1 9.6
45% 17.8 13.8 11.3 9.8
50% 17.9 13.9 11.3 9.8
Current situation
Our contractor is Ipsos_MORI
Our contract foresees Local Authority boosts using the SHCS infrastructure
But it ties Ipsos-MORI to:• Taking a social and physical survey; and • The SHCS methods and standards
This is expensive because of:• High data quality standards and • High rates of response required involving extensive call backs.
Current situation
2 COUNCILS - Scottish Borders and Aberdeenshire
have bought private sector boosts but extra resource management and weighting strategies and so on must be managed; it is not straight forward.
On such a small scale its not of much benefit to an overall strategy of to provide annual consistent, comparable data across all local authorities.
Is there a better way?
1 We hope to be able to utilise the EPC data statistically in some way not defined as yet to provide weighted energy efficiency output on an LA basis annually.
2 Can we determine a consistent universal housing and household data requirement for all LAs ; and work from there to produce a national survey that meets Local and National Government Policy needs?
Are there viable options?
Are there viable options?
Problems:
Small LAs need disproportionate boosts but have less money and expertise.
Local House Condition Survey are ad hoc, with different content and varying quality and no consistency across time or between Local Authorities.
Disproportionate management and training costs for LAs.
Are there viable options? 2 Models:
Option 1?
• SG in partnership with COSLA (e.g.?) set up a survey umbrella organisation to manage consistent surveys.
• Could have a predominant core social survey with some room for local modules?
About 300 surveys per year per LA?
Are there viable options? 2 Models:
Option 2?
• Standardised survey modules provided which are mandated by a Local Authority umbrella organisation?
• This would allow LAs to use local resources where they are available.
Sampling; Social interviewer recruitment, Social interviewer training; social interviewer field force; CAPI Scripts and validation; Portable laptops with CAPI scripts and validation; Physical survey appointment system; Physical Survey recruitment; Physical survey training;
Are there viable options? 2nd Model:
Option 2?
Sampling; Social interviewer recruitment, Social interviewer training; social interviewer field force; CAPI Scripts and validation; Portable laptops with CAPI scripts and validation.
Physical survey appointment system; Physical Survey recruitment; Physical survey training; Field management; Back checking; Scanning and validation.
Software training; Database quality assurance; Derived variable production.
Are there viable options? 2nd Model:
Is there a feeling that there should be more consistency across Scotland?
Is it possible for a nationally co-ordinated survey to meet local needs exactly enough to remove the need for local surveys?
Would it save money, create efficiencies or is it doomed as too inflexible to meet local needs?