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Scenario Scenario PlanningPlanningScenario Scenario PlanningPlanning
Barcelona, 16 March 2011Barcelona, 16 March 2011
Carsten Beck, CIFSCarsten Beck, CIFS
CIFS• Founded in 1970 by Thorkil
Kristensen
• Member-based non-profit
• Private, neutral and
independentindependent
• Cross-disciplinary think-tank
• (economists, political scientists,
ethnologists, communication experts,
sociologists, astrophysicists and
philosophers)
• About 30 employees
• International Future Clubs
www.cifs.dk
CIFSCIFS
Members reportsMembers reportsMembers reportsMembers reportsMagazineMagazineMagazineMagazine
Courses and worshopsCourses and worshopsCourses and worshopsCourses and worshops
Members seminarsMembers seminarsMembers seminarsMembers seminars
10 10 10 10 Trends Trends Trends Trends towardstowardstowardstowards 2020202020202020
WorkingWorking withwith the futurethe future&&
changechangechangechange
Why do companies have to focus on the future?
Source: McKinsey Quarterly, 2005. Huyett/Vigurie
Why cant we ask consumers about the future?
”If I asked peoplewhat they wanted, I what they wanted, I would have made a faster horse”
Henry Ford
Why you need scenarios?
3D Color TV
Wall-Panel
Slide-back Roof Personal Helicopter &
Roof Landing Area
MovingStairway House-control
Panel
Glass Walls Dust-free
Floors
Menu Selector &
Microwave Stove
Giant-size
Fruit
Ultrasonic
Laundry
Electrical
Heat Unit
Phono-vision
Receiver
Why is there always more to do?
"Who the hell wants to hear actorstalk?”
H.M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927.
Why do great companies fail?
”I am not an economist, but I do believe that we are growing”
President George W. Bush July 2008
• Desired futures
•Value-based
• Likely futures
• Based on
relationships
• Hide risks
• Possible, plausible
futures
• Based on uncertainty
• Illustrate risks
Working with the future
ScenariosForecasts Vision
• Hidden risks
• Qualitative
• Energizing
• Used daily
• Used as a basis for
voluntary change
• Hide risks
• Quantitative
• Need for decisions
• Used daily
• Strong in the short-
term and low
uncertainty
• Illustrate risks
• Qualitative and
quantitative
• Need to know what
needs to be decided
upon
• Used occasionally
• Strong in the
medium- to long-term
perspective
Context and driving forces
Political factors
Economic factors
Society and Suppliers
Shareholders
Transactional environmentContextual environment
Society and values
Technologicalfactors
Environmental factors
Legalfactors
Customers
Competitors
Regulation
Markets Funding
Organization
Culture & values
StructureCompetenciesOfferingsManagement
The last 10 years…
• Dot-com crisis
• 9/11
• Internet penetration and social media in Africa
• Revolution in North Africa
• EU countries on the brink of bankruptcy• EU countries on the brink of bankruptcy
• Climate crisis
• Culture wars and the Muhammad Cartoon Crisis
• Women as a majority in universities
• Mobile phones in Africa
• China as a superpower
• Financial crisis
• The demand for Africas raw materials
SourceSourceSourceSource: : : : DalbergDalbergDalbergDalberg
Wild card: Foreign land acquisitions
Process: step-by-step
0. Problem formulation
1. Megatrends and their consequences
2. Identification and selection of
uncertainties
2.uncertainties
3. Development of broad scenarios based
on the selection
4. Organizational profiling in each field
5. Scenario-driven strategy
Process: step-by-step
0. Problem formulation: Global middle
class
1. Megatrends and their consequences
2. Identification and selection of 2. Identification and selection of
uncertainties
3. Development of broad scenarios based
on the selection
4. Organizational profiling in each field
5. Scenario-driven strategy
MegatrendsMegatrends
DrivingDriving forces for forces for changechange
Megatrends
•10-30 year horizon
•Difficult in Africa
•You cannot choose not to be influenced
•Influences all of society
•But local varieties: religion in Nigeria•But local varieties: religion in Nigeria
•Influences all people
•Look at patterns in consumption:
•Food, phone, bike, tv etc
•Strongly influences values and norms
•The uncertainties remain: exactly how and
how quickly
15 Megatrends1. Knowledge
2. Technological development
3. Acceleration
4. Complexity
5. Globalisation
6. Commercialisation6. Commercialisation
7. Economic growth
8. Democratisation
9. Materialization/ experience economy
10. Individualization
11. Network economy
12. Focus on health
13. Climate
14. Demographics
15. Urbanization
World population is growing…..Population in 2009 and prediction for 2030Population in 2009 and prediction for 2030Population in 2009 and prediction for 2030Population in 2009 and prediction for 2030
1.94%
-1.47%
17.58% 8.67% -7.60%World
CIS
China
EU-27
United States
Japan
22229999
500mn
800mn
1.5bn
19.96%
55.05%
% increase20092030
38.95% 23.95%
26.59%
1.3bn
21.66%
9bn 7bn
18.45%
World
MENA
SSALATAM
ROW
Asia ex CIJ
India
Sources: UN, Standard Chartered ResearchSources: UN, Standard Chartered ResearchSources: UN, Standard Chartered ResearchSources: UN, Standard Chartered Research
….and moving to cities…..Urbanisation in 2010 and prediction for 2030Urbanisation in 2010 and prediction for 2030Urbanisation in 2010 and prediction for 2030Urbanisation in 2010 and prediction for 2030
MENA
EU
US
China Japan
47.0%
66.8%
73.0%82.3%
87.0%
60.4%
72.6%
78.4%
MENA
India
Sub SaharanAfrica
LATAM
500mn
100mn 2010
2030
1bn % Urban%
61.9%
30.0%
39.7%
37.3%
47.9%79.6%
84.9%
67.5%
Sources: UN, Standard Chartered ResearchSources: UN, Standard Chartered ResearchSources: UN, Standard Chartered ResearchSources: UN, Standard Chartered Research
Middle class now and in 2030
Middle Eastand North Africa
Europe
North America
Asia Pacific
Size of the middle class in 2009 and prediction for 2030Size of the middle class in 2009 and prediction for 2030Size of the middle class in 2009 and prediction for 2030Size of the middle class in 2009 and prediction for 2030
Sub SaharanAfrica
Central andSouth America
500mn
100mn
2009
2030
1bn
Sources: Sources: Sources: Sources: MckinseyMckinseyMckinseyMckinsey, World Economic Forum, World Economic Forum, World Economic Forum, World Economic Forum
Frugal Innovation
Process: step-by-step
0. Problem formulation
1. Megatrends and their consequences
2. Identification and selection of 2. Identification and selection of
uncertainties
3. Development of broad scenarios based
on the selection
4. Organizational profiling in each field
5. Scenario-driven strategy
UncertaintiesUncertainties??
Mantra:Mantra:””Big uncertainties Big uncertainties ––big consequencesbig consequences””
?
??
Identification of uncertainties
Either OrA BC DE FE FG HI JK LM NO PQ RS T
Choose the most important uncertainties
Either OrA BC DE FE FG HI JK LM NO PQ RS T
M
Building broad scenarios
G H
N
Uncertainties
Africa benefits from globalisation Africa is left behind
Mo Ibrahim ++ Mo Ibrahim --
Market Regulation
Convergence Polarization
Centralization Decentralization
Urbanisation works for all Villages left behind
Africa like Asia (consumption pattern) A special path for Africa (consumption
pattern)
More focus on climate/env Less focus on climate/env
Uncertanties
Africa benefits from globalisation Africa is left behind
Mo Ibrahim ++ Mo Ibrahim --
Market Regulation
Convergence Polarization
Centralization Decentralization
Urbanisation works for all Villages left behind
Africa like Asia (consumption pattern) A special path for Africa (consumption
pattern)
More focus on climate/env Less focus on climate/env
• Young urban asiaticconsumers
• Slimmer fit• Slimmer fit
• Less US more global
ScenariosRealistic stories about the future
Scenarios are normally:
• NOT predictions• NOT predictions
• Unlike the present
• Believable and possible
• Argumentable
• Profiled
• Internally consistent
External environment scenariosFeelings
scenario A scenario B
Fast digitalisation Slow digitalisation
Rationality
scenario C scenario D
Scenarios can be used to…
• Identify challenges in the environment – Threats and opportunities
– Help to prioritise and make decisions
• Test, develop and evaluate strategy – and innovate– Business development, HR-development, product development, – Business development, HR-development, product development,
personal development, branding, etc.
• Prepare research and scan the environment – as guidelines
• Establish a common platform for learning, development, communications and a common language
Process: step-by-step
0. Problem formulation
1. Megatrends and their consequences
2. Identification and selection of 2. Identification and selection of
uncertainties
3. Development of broad scenarios based
on the selection
4. Organizational profiling in each field
5. Scenario-driven strategy
MPoliticsPoliticsPoliticsPolitics
EconomyEconomyEconomyEconomy
SocietySocietySocietySociety
TechnologyTechnologyTechnologyTechnology
PEST analysis
PoliticsPoliticsPoliticsPolitics
EconomyEconomyEconomyEconomy
SocietySocietySocietySociety
TechnologyTechnologyTechnologyTechnology
G H
N
TechnologyTechnologyTechnologyTechnology
PoliticsPoliticsPoliticsPolitics
EconomyEconomyEconomyEconomy
SocietySocietySocietySociety
TechnologyTechnologyTechnologyTechnology
TechnologyTechnologyTechnologyTechnology
PoliticsPoliticsPoliticsPolitics
EconomyEconomyEconomyEconomy
SocietySocietySocietySociety
TechnologyTechnologyTechnologyTechnology
Process: step-by-step
0. Problem formulation
1. Megatrends and their consequences
2. Identification and selection of 2. Identification and selection of
uncertainties
3. Development of broad scenarios based
on the selection
4. Organizational profiling in each field
5. Scenario-driven strategy