William H. FreyThe Brookings Institutionand University of Michigan

Planning for New Orleans’Demographic Future

www.frey-demographer.org

www.brookings.edu/metro

New Orleans City Population Change 1990-2004

Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

White Black

Metro New Orleans Population Change1990-2004

Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution

-2-1.5

-1-0.5

00.5

11.5

22.5

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

White Black

Parish Growth by Race, 1990-2004

Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution

-60,000

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

Orleans Jefferson St.Bernard

Pla-quemines

St. John St.Charles

St.Tammany

Whites Blacks

Parish Race Profiles, 2004

Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Orleans Jefferson

St. Bernard

Plaquemines

St. JohnSt. Charles

St. Tammany White Black Hispanic Other

New Orleans Metro: Average Neighborhood Racial Composition

Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution

78.3

19.8

13.5

74.1

4.8 3.13.4 3.0

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

For Whites For Blacks

White Black Hispanic Other

1 Fresno 43.52 New Orleans 37.33 Louisville 36.74 Miami 36.45 Atlanta 35.86 Long Beach 30.77 Cleveland 29.88 Philadelphia 27.99 Milwaukee 27.010 New York 25.9

Percent Poor living in "Concentrated Poverty Neighborhoods"

Source: "Katrina's Window: Confronting Concentrated Poverty Across America", Brookings Institution 2005

Blacks WhitesHH Income $21,461 $40,390 Poverty Rate 43% 11%College Grads 13% 48%Not in Labor Force 44% 30%Renters 41% 56%

New Orleans City

Source: Brookings Institution

Flooded DryHH Income $38,263 $55,316 Poverty Rate 30% 24%Renters 54% 53%Nonwhites 80% 55%

New Orleans City: Flooded vs. Dry Areas

Source:”New Orleans after the Storm:Lessons from the Past, A Plan for the Future” Brookings Institution 2005

Flooded DryHH Income $44,479 $53,108 Poverty Rate 22% 15%Renters 47% 31%Nonwhites 58% 35%

Metro New Orleans: Flooded vs. Dry Areas

Source:”New Orleans after the Storm:Lessons from the Past, A Plan for the Future” Brookings Institution. 2005

Population Growth 2000-04

Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution

1.9

6.98.8

15.4

02468

1012141618

New Orleans Houston Dallas Atlanta

Black Growth 2000-04

Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution

0.3

9.2 9.710

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

New Orleans Houston Dallas Atlanta

Black-White Segregation

Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution

75.4

71.3

63.9

68.5

5860626466687072747678

New Orleans Houston Dallas Atlanta

Percent in Poverty

Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution

14.913.3 13.1

11.9

02468

1012141618

New Orleans Houston Dallas Atlanta

Percent Born in Same State

Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution

76.7

55.7 5550

0102030405060708090

New Orleans Houston Dallas Atlanta

Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution

States with Most Rooted Populations

Blacks Whites

1 Baton Rouge 90%2 Mobile 89%3 Birmingham 89%4 New Orleans 88%

14 Houston 75%22 Detroit 72%38 Oakland 61%46 Atlanta 57%

Blacks Born in Same State

Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution

La Out-Migration by Education

Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution

3.74.8

10

14.1

2.34.4

8.1

12.7

02468

10121416

Less than HS High SchoolGrad

Some College College Grad

Whites Blacks

Out-migration by Poverty

Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution

7.7

2.8

6.7

8.2

0123456789

In Poverty Not in Poverty

Whites Blacks

Out migration by Household Income

Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution

5.7

7.7 8.2 8.5

7.2

9.3

7.5

5.4

3.1

8.7

0123456789

10

<15K 15-25K 25-35K 35-50K 50-75K

Whites Blacks

Migration by Education Metro Comparisons:

Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

Less than HS HS Grad Some Coll College Grad

NewOrleansAtlanta

Dallas

Houston

Blacks1. Atlanta2. Baton Rouge3. Dallas4. Houston5. Lafayette6. Los Angeles

Whites1. Baton Rouge2. Houston3. Biloxi4. Dallas5. Lafayette6. Houma, La

Pre-Katrina Destinations from New Orleans

Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution

Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution

Where La Blacks Moved Before Katrina

100,000 and over

1,000 to 5,0005,000 to 10,000

10,000 to 100,000

under 1,000

Propositions:• Involve the region’s demographically diverse

population, including evacuees, in the planning

process.

• Give priority to enabling the region’s original residents

to return.

• Provide improved housing options for returning and

new in-migrants to the the region