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AUA planning forum 2012 Kate Lang and Mark Corver Supporting planning through UCAS data and analysis
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AUA planning forum 2012
Kate Lang and Mark Corver
Supporting planning through UCASdata and analysis
“The UK higher education paradigm is in flux.”[AUA Planning Forum 2012 introduction]
In England, new fee, waiver and bursary market
Coupled with long-term access targets
Funding and control of HE system is changing
We don’t know how applicants will respond
Your job as planners more difficult
How can UCAS help planners?
Analysis of the key national patterns
Rich data on your institution
Future directions
How can UCAS help planners?
Analysis of the key national patterns
Rich data on your institution
Future directions
Providing national intelligence
Analysis of national trends
Understanding of application cycle
Intelligence on the strategic changes
18 year old application rates down in England
Women increase application rate advantage
Strong increases by disadvantaged over decade
Advantaged in England more affected by fees?
Mature application rate falls after above-trend rise
2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
NEW APPLICANTS REAPPLIERS
Decline in first-time UK applicants in 2011
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
ACCEPTED HAS OFFER NO OFFERS
ACCEPTED (2010) HAS OFFER (2010) NO OFFERS (2010)
Cycle start -------------------------------------------------------Cycle end
Shape of the cycle: 2011 similar to 2010
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201160%
62%
64%
66%
68%
70%
72%
74%
76%
78%
80%77.7% 77.6% 77.2% 77.3% 77.6%
75.3%
69.9% 70.3%
Acceptance rate recovers in 2011 after sharp fall
2007 2008 2009 2010 201170%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
AAB BBB ALL
Easier to get accepted in 2011?
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201165%
70%
75%
80%
0%
5%
10%
15%
ACCEPTED AT FIRM ACCEPTED AT INSURANCE
ACCEPTED IN CLEARING UNPLACED
Note: The dotted lines refer to the right hand scale, the solid line relates to the left hand scale
Fewer get in on firm acceptance
Note: The dotted lines refer to the right hand scale, the solid line relates to the left hand scale
2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
IMMEDIATE APPLICANTS IMMEDIATE ACCEPTANCE
DEFERRED APPLICANTS DEFERRED ACCEPTANCE
Large fall in deferred applications, accepts in 2011
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
Meaning that a nearly flat trend of acceptances...
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
Masked jump in starters against fixed controls
How can UCAS help planners?
Analysis of the key national patterns
Rich data on your institution
Future directions
Who are Data Insight?
Commercial Policy & Research
Team of dedicated account managersAdvise on all your data requirementsChargeable products and servicesDesigned to compliment freely available national data and provide more in depth institutional level information
Analysts sit within Analysis & ResearchWork closely with other colleaguesIncome covenanted back to UCAS to keep down capitation fee
How will our products and services help you?
Data Insight products and services
Understand the ‘as is’
picture
Monitor performance
against strategic aims
Identify new markets
Benchmark yourselves
against competitors
Identify areas of decline
Understand your
competition
Product summary
MarketscanHelp with course planning and pinpointing course
trends
Catchment Identify your feeder establishments and understand
your market share
Grade ProfileUnderstand the market in purely grade terms and
target high achieving students
Marketscan
Football Studies
Institution Course Year Subject Degree type
Rem-ove
University of Red
Football studies 2011 Sport Science
BA
University of Red
Football and society
2011 Sport Science
BA
Blue University
Football and society
2011 Sport Science
BA
Blue University
Football Studies & French
2011 Combined BA 1
Marketscan
• Age• Gender• Ethnic group• Tariff band• Disability status• Home region of
domicile• Overseas country
of domicile
Applications and acceptances by
institution and year
Marketscan
This will aid planners by allowing you to…Review your current course portfolioUnderstand areas of growth or declineAssess market for new course provisionMonitor changes in course popularity over many cycles
View course or subject trends over the past three to nine yearsYou choose the courses to include, or allow us to ‘scan’ course titles for relevant keywordsChoose from three to nine year trendsRestrict to mission groups, regional groups or competitor institutionsView trends, course information, entry requirements, offer and acceptance rates, applicant demographics and institution level data
Catchment
• Applications, offers and acceptances
by school or college
• Compare to the sector or competitor
group
• See your reliance on the school
• And % penetration for applications and
acceptances
• Drill down by subjects, local authority or
school sector
• See trends over a number of years
Catchment
Understand key feeder schools and identify trendsUnderstand you market share of local schools and collegesChoose to look at just schools who you receive applications from, all schools in an area, or a specified listUndertake the same analysis for geographic areas such as postcode districts or overseas countries
This will aid planners by allowing you to…Link to OFFA reportingMonitor success of school targets or geographic areasUnderstand variations by different departmentsTrack trends over timeMonitor long term aims such as new market penetration in overseas countries
Grade Profile
Destination data for your applicants and AAB+ grade profile
Top 50 course codes accepting applicants
with AAB+ grade profile
National applications and acceptances by
institution and subject line
AAB+ applications and acceptances by
institution and subject line
AAB+ applications and acceptances by
institution subject group and grade profile
This product was developed to respond requests from members for data following the removal of the cap on AAB+ students
This is the first stage in our reporting on changes to student number controls and the
introduction of variable fees
Grade Profile
Understand the market for AAB+ studentsGain in depth information about the destinations of your students and their qualification profileIdentify the key courses attracting high achieving studentsUnderstand the national market and drill down to different subjects and institutions
This will aid planners by allowing you to…Aid with adapting your planning for changes to higher educationUse historic data to aid with forward number control planningUnderstand the market in purely grade terms and target high achieving studentsMonitor qualifications of your applicantsUnderstand and benchmark against your competition
Future support for planners
Stronger analysis and research team
Greater focus on understanding
Reporting at national level
New possibilities for helping planners
How can UCAS help planners?
Analysis of the key national patterns
Rich data on your institution
Future directions
New strategic analysis area will use wider data
Understand entry steps and their outcomes
Possible future help for planners from this
1. OFFA targets and trajectories?
2. Intra-cycle student number projections?
3. Institutional demand forecasts?
Planning for OFFA access agreements
What are OFFA looking for?
Source:OFFA 2011/01
Demanding set of planning requirements
Measure disadvantage
Commit to trajectory and monitor
Relate to population, attainment, sector
Link to retention outcomes
Defining and demonstrate disadvantage
Areas: POLAR2, IDACI, parental education
Post-16 schools: type, nature, participation
Pre-16 schools: type, nature, participation
Prior FSM status, sex, ethnic group, in-care
Occupational groups, income measures
Measures to isolate your contribution
Application rates
Offer making rates
Offer response rates
Offer satisfaction, entry rates
Non-continuation, attainment, destinations
Fair comparisons?
Populations – including local populations
Attainment - grade and subject
Applied to you?
By fee, support levels?
Trends spanning pre- and post-2012
Relative application rates for £9,000 courses
Offer making probabilities by background
Intra-cycle forecasting of acceptances
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
ACCEPTED HAS OFFER NO OFFERS
ACCEPTED (2010) HAS OFFER (2010) NO OFFERS (2010)
Cycle start -------------------------------------------------------Cycle end
Shape of the cycle: for applicants
Data source: UCAS Analysis and Research
27/09/2
010
21/10/2
010
14/11/2
010
08/12/2
010
01/01/2
011
25/01/2
011
18/02/2
011
14/03/2
011
07/04/2
011
01/05/2
011
25/05/2
011
18/06/2
011
12/07/2
011
05/08/2
011
29/08/2
011
22/09/2
011
16/10/2
0110
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
Chart Title
Secured PlaceLiability LevelSecured (2010)Liability (2010)
Looking at the institution’s perspective too
UCAS tools tell you exactly where you are
Source: http://www.ucasmedia.com/whatweoffer/datainsight/applicationanddecisiontracker
Suppose we have this understanding?
So that choice between offers can be predicted
Source: Unpublished analysis for OFFA 2010/06
Combined – could we report a SNC ‘glide path’?
Institutional demand forecasts?
We know the UK population context
Starting to build our forecasting capability
Extrapolating age-specific application rates
Combine with population forecasts
Evidence led forecast of numbers
And application rates can be predicted
Could we forecast at institutional level?
Take account of your applicant profile
Young / mature, local/faraway, UK/EU
Project forward populations, rates
Identify new opportunities?
Possible future help for planners from this
1. OFFA targets and trajectories?
2. Intra-cycle student number projections?
3. Institutional demand forecasts?
Discussion
Is our national analysis helpful?
Are there quick improvements we can make to our institutional data to help you now?
How can we best help you through future support from our analysis programme?
Contact us
Kate Lang01242 54 49 56
Mark Corver01242 22 37 45
Let us know what you think
