Digital Wars and platform wars

Charles Arthur

http://bit.ly/warsbook

About me• Technology editor, The Guardian, since 2005

• Author, “Digital Wars: Apple, Google, Microsoft and the Battle for the Internet”

http://bit.ly/warsbook

We’ve had the digital wars

• Google v Microsoft in search

• Apple v Microsoft in digital music

• Google v Apple v Microsoftin smartphones

• Google v Apple v Microsoftin tablets

Who won in SEARch?• in search: emphatically Google (though that has consequences)

• Google’s share is a monopoly in Europe and (less so) the US

• swallowed MMI for its patentsbut got food poisoning

Who won in Music?

Zune introduction

And in smartphones?

Exponential?

Everyone’s connecting

"Global mobile penetration, at >80%, has surpassed that of electricity"

who won in tablets?• it’s too early to say.

The next wars: Platforms• Windows: once the only platform that mattered

• Smartphones will pass PC installed base in 2013

Platforms: what matters?• Size helps

Platforms: More complex• It’s a matrix rather than a simple graph

Platform success depends on...

fewer users

more users

more £/user

less £/user

Quadrant of dominance

Quadrant of niche-ness

Quadrant of commoditisation

Quadrant of doom

monetisation matters• Complicated interplay between desktop and mobile

• Mobile presently worth less than desktop

• Where do you want to be?

fewer users

more users

more £/user

less £/userAndroid

AppleWindows Phone

RIMFacebook

Google

Google+

WindowsOffice

WhatsAppTwitter

Apple (Macs)

Platform forecast• win in hardware/services: get bigger platforms to target you (inc third-party developers)

• win in software: getting onto more hardware/services

• mutual win for both: monetise at scale

fewer users

more users

more £/user

less £/user

Thank you

Charles Arthur

http://bit.ly/warsbook