Date post: | 03-Jun-2018 |
Category: |
Documents |
Upload: | zzlesleyzz |
View: | 220 times |
Download: | 0 times |
of 44
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
1/44
Platinum & Palladium SurveyPlatinum & Palladium Survey 20112011Launch PresentationLaunch Presentation 55thth May 2011May 2011
LondonLondon Philip KlapwijkPhilip Klapwijk
JohannesburgJohannesburg Paul WalkerPaul Walker
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
2/44
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
3/44
GFMS gratefully acknowledges the generousGFMS gratefully acknowledges the generous
Platinum & Palladium SurveyPlatinum & Palladium Survey
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
4/44
Platinum in 2010Platinum in 2010
Palladium in 2010Palladium in 2010
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
5/44
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
6/44
Platinum Supply Rose 5% to 7.69m oz in 2010Platinum Supply Rose 5% to 7.69m oz in 2010
Mine output up by 2% to 4.75m oz, mainly South AfricaMine output up by 2% to 4.75m oz, mainly South Africa First time increase since 2007First time increase since 2007
a ns n an m a we excee e osses e sew erea ns n an m a we excee e osses e sew ere
Rising costs were offset by a considerable rise in platinum pricesRising costs were offset by a considerable rise in platinum prices
ewe ery recyc ng umpe o . m ozewe ery recyc ng umpe o . m oz Higher scrap from both Japan and ChinaHigher scrap from both Japan and China
Driven b risin rices and increasin ool of eweller stocks.Driven b risin rices and increasin ool of eweller stocks.
Autocatalyst recycling rebounded 15% to 0.90m ozAutocatalyst recycling rebounded 15% to 0.90m oz Ke drivers include stron PGM and steel rices and anKe drivers include stron PGM and steel rices and an
improvement in recycling efficiencyimprovement in recycling efficiency All markets saw higher scrap, with Europe posting the largest riseAll markets saw higher scrap, with Europe posting the largest rise
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
7/44
Platinum Mine Production;Platinum Mine Production;
Implats
AquariusRoyal Bafokeng
Others
Norilsk
Stillwater
AmplatsLosers
Vale
Artel Amur
-100 -50 0 50 100 150Source: GFMSSource: GFMS ((Platinum & Palladium Survey 2011)Platinum & Palladium Survey 2011)
(000 ounces)(000 ounces)
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
8/44
South African Mine Production CostsSouth African Mine Production Costs
R600,000R600,000
R400,000
,
R400,000
,
Average Pt price 2010
R300,000R300,000 Average Pt price (2009)
R100,000R100,000All-in costs per in 2010 ($1,469/oz))
Total cash costs per kilo in 2010 ($1,081/oz)
R0R0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Note: AllNote: All--in costs includes depreciation, sustaining capex, overheads, minein costs includes depreciation, sustaining capex, overheads, mine--site exploration & exceptionals such as retrenchmentsite exploration & exceptionals such as retrenchment
Source: GFMSSource: GFMS ((Platinum & Palladium Survey 2011)Platinum & Palladium Survey 2011)
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
9/44
GlobalGlobal Platinum SupplyPlatinum Supply
1600
1800
8.0
9.0
1200
1400
6.0
7.0
800
1000
4.0
5.0US$/oz
illionoz
4002.0
.
00.0
.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
out r can m n ng t er m n ng
Autocatalyst recycling Old jewellery scrapSource: GFMSSource: GFMS ((Platinum & Palladium Survey 2011)Platinum & Palladium Survey 2011)
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
10/44
HeadlineHeadline Su lSu l -- PlatinumPlatinum
6 0486 048 6 1866 186 138138
Autocatalyst RecyclingAutocatalyst Recycling 780780 898898 118118
ewe ery crapewe ery crap
Total supplyTotal supply 7,2917,291 7,6877,687 396396
--
Source: GFMSSource: GFMS ((Platinum & Palladium Survey 2011)Platinum & Palladium Survey 2011)
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
11/44
Platinum Demand in 2010Platinum Demand in 2010
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
12/44
DemandDemand -- PlatinumPlatinum
000 oz000 oz 20092009 20102010 +(+(--))
utocata ystsutocata ysts ,, ,,
IndustrialIndustrial 1,2301,230 1,7501,750 520520
JewelleryJewellery 2,2922,292 1,8941,894 (398)(398)
Retail InvestmentRetail Investment 305305 7676 (229)(229)
TotalTotal 6,4156,415 6,7256,725 311311
Note: autocatalyst & jewellery are gross fabrication demand, others are netNote: autocatalyst & jewellery are gross fabrication demand, others are net
Source: GFMSSource: GFMS ((Platinum & Palladium Survey 2011)Platinum & Palladium Survey 2011)
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
13/44
Autocatalysts DemandAutocatalysts Demand inin 20102010 -- PlatinumPlatinum
Vehicle production up 23% and diesel rose 27%Vehicle production up 23% and diesel rose 27%
Platinum use up 16% to 3.0m oz after a hefty decline inPlatinum use up 16% to 3.0m oz after a hefty decline in
2009, but still 26% below the peak in 20072009, but still 26% below the peak in 2007
urope pos e e arges ncrease n vo ume erms,urope pos e e arges ncrease n vo ume erms,
helped by Euro 5 and a rebound in LV productionhelped by Euro 5 and a rebound in LV production
Higher demand also due to tight standards & higherHigher demand also due to tight standards & higher
But gains were limited by ongoing substitution lossesBut gains were limited by ongoing substitution losses
both in gasoline & dieselboth in gasoline & diesel
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
14/44
GlobalGlobal Vehicle ProductionVehicle Production
,,
80
90
60
70
Other regions
China+120
40
50
on
units
North America
Europe+15
30mill
+66
+58
10 +160Labels show change in
platinum demand in
2010; up 419 koz
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source:Source: GFMS, IHS AutomotiveGFMS, IHS Automotive
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
15/44
Global Vehicle Production & PlatinumGlobal Vehicle Production & Platinum
se n u oca a ys sse n u oca a ys s
Production 77m units Platinum 3.0m oz
Light diesel Heavy diesel
Gasoline
Light diesel Heavy diesel
Gasoline
Note: basis 2010 dataNote: basis 2010 data
Source:Source: GFMS, IHS AutomotiveGFMS, IHS Automotive
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
16/44
GlobalGlobal Light Vehicle ProductionLight Vehicle Production -- DieselDiesel
18
20
1416
10
12
nunits Other regions
China
6
8milli apan
North America
2
4
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Source:Source: IHS AutomotiveIHS Automotive
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
17/44
GlobalGlobal Autocatalyst DemandAutocatalyst Demand -- PlatinumPlatinum
17.5
.
3.0
.
12.5
15.0
2.0
2.5 millio
z
10.01.5
onunitsm
illio
5.0
7.5
0.5
1.0
2.50.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Pt in gasoline Pt in diesel Light diesel production (rhs)
Source:Source: GFMS, IHS AutomotiveGFMS, IHS Automotive
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
18/44
Industrial ApplicationsIndustrial Applications PlatinumPlatinum
1.75m oz in 20101.75m oz in 2010 u 42%u 42%2.5
2.0
Glass1.5
illiono
Electronics
Petroleum
0.5
.Chemicals
Other
0.0
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
ource: GFMSource: GFMS ((Platinum & Palladium Survey 2011)Platinum & Palladium Survey 2011)
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
19/44
JewelleryJewellery DemandDemand inin 20102010 -- PlatinumPlatinum
.. All major markets, except North America, registered declineAll major markets, except North America, registered decline
China down 26% to 1.18m ozChina down 26% to 1.18m oz Rising prices and elevated stocks reduced fabrication demandRising prices and elevated stocks reduced fabrication demand
-- --
North America & EuropeNorth America & Europe totaltotal 0.42m oz (up 6%)0.42m oz (up 6%) O ta e n Nort Amer ca was te y a recovery n t e uxuryO ta e n Nort Amer ca was te y a recovery n t e uxury
end of the marketend of the market
European demand saw substitution losses into carat palladiumEuropean demand saw substitution losses into carat palladium
ewe ery on g er pr cesewe ery on g er pr ces
Fabrication in Ja an dro ed b 3% to 0.26m ozFabrication in Ja an dro ed b 3% to 0.26m oz After a rebound in 2009, longAfter a rebound in 2009, long--term downtrend resumedterm downtrend resumed
Chief drivers were weak economy and higher pricesChief drivers were weak economy and higher prices
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
20/44
Platinum JewelleryPlatinum Jewellery Gross Fabrication DemandGross Fabrication Demand
$1,800
3.0
3.5
$1,200
,
2.5 Other
$900
1.5
2.0
illiono Europe
North America
$6001.0
Japan
China
$00.0
0.5 Pt US$ (rhs)
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Source: GFMSSource: GFMS ((Platinum & Palladium Survey 2011)Platinum & Palladium Survey 2011)
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
21/44
Su l &Su l & DemandDemand -- PlatinumPlatinum
000 oz000 oz 20092009 20102010
Headline SupplyHeadline Supply 7,2917,291 7,6877,687
Fabrication DemandFabrication Demand 6,4156,415 6,7256,725
Gross Sur lus DeficitGross Sur lus Deficit 876876 962962
We consider this the preferred measure of platinumsWe consider this the preferred measure of platinums
underlying fundamentals.underlying fundamentals.
Gross surplus implies an increase in aboveGross surplus implies an increase in above--ground stocks.ground stocks.
Source: GFMSSource: GFMS ((Platinum & Palladium Survey 2011)Platinum & Palladium Survey 2011)
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
22/44
Supply &Supply & DemandDemand -- PlatinumPlatinum
000 oz000 oz 20092009 20102010
876876 962962
Other Stock Activity:Other Stock Activity:
Industry DeIndustry De--stockingstocking 665665 00
Exchan e Traded Funds*Exchan e Traded Funds* 384384 550550
SubSub--totaltotal 281281 (550)(550)
Residual Surplus (Deficit)Residual Surplus (Deficit) 1,1571,157 412412
egat ve num ers or s n cate net a t ona nvestmentegat ve num ers or s n cate net a t ona nvestment
Source: GFMSSource: GFMS ((Platinum & Palladium Survey 2011)Platinum & Palladium Survey 2011)
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
23/44
World InvestmentWorld Investment Platinum*Platinum*
2000Net Value of WorldNet Value of World
1500
1000nces
1000
500
illionUS$
ou
sando
0
500
0
T
-500-500
*World Investment is the sum of retail investment, net growth in ETF and residual surplus (deficit)*World Investment is the sum of retail investment, net growth in ETF and residual surplus (deficit)
SourceSource: GFMS: GFMS ((Platinum & Palladium Survey 2011)Platinum & Palladium Survey 2011)
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
24/44
PalladiumPalladium
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
25/44
HighlightsHighlights of 2010of 2010 -- PalladiumPalladium
Mine production up by 5% in 2010, mainly South Africa.Mine production up by 5% in 2010, mainly South Africa.
o a supp y rose y , as recyc ng a so c m e .o a supp y rose y , as recyc ng a so c m e .
Total demand was up by over 1.0m oz.Total demand was up by over 1.0m oz.
Demand from autocatalysts reached a 10Demand from autocatalysts reached a 10--year high.year high.
Gross deficit was 0.55m oz, versus near balance in 2009.Gross deficit was 0.55m oz, versus near balance in 2009.
. ,. ,ETF gains.ETF gains.
r ces r ven y nves men an ro us au oca a ys sr ces r ven y nves men an ro us au oca a ys s
demand.demand.
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
26/44
Palladium Supply in 2010 Rose to 8.07m ozPalladium Supply in 2010 Rose to 8.07m oz
Mine production up 5%, after 3 years of lossesMine production up 5%, after 3 years of losses Output increased in South Africa, Canada and RussiaOutput increased in South Africa, Canada and Russia
In contrast, the United States posted a slight fallIn contrast, the United States posted a slight fall
Autocatalyst recycling increased by 21% to 1.29m ozAutocatalyst recycling increased by 21% to 1.29m oz
More than reversed the decline seen in 2009More than reversed the decline seen in 2009 Strong PGM prices and improved recycling efficiency wereStrong PGM prices and improved recycling efficiency were
behind the risebehind the rise
Old jewellery scrap surged by 40% to 163,000 ouncesOld jewellery scrap surged by 40% to 163,000 ounces The majority came from retailers inventories in the ChineseThe majority came from retailers inventories in the Chinese
mar et, w ere con ence n pa a um ewe ery su eremar et, w ere con ence n pa a um ewe ery su ere
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
27/44
Palladium Demand in 2010Palladium Demand in 2010
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
28/44
DemandDemand -- PalladiumPalladium
000 oz000 oz 20092009 20102010 +(+(--))
,, ,, ,,
IndustrialIndustrial 2,2832,283 2,5132,513 229229
ewe eryewe ery ,,
Retail InvestmentRetail Investment170170 7575 (95)(95)
TotalTotal 7,5917,591 8,6188,618 1,0281,028
Note: autocatalyst & jewellery are gross fabrication demand, others are netNote: autocatalyst & jewellery are gross fabrication demand, others are net
ource: GFMSource: GFMS ((Platinum & Palladium Survey 2011)Platinum & Palladium Survey 2011)
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
29/44
Autocatal st inAutocatal st in 20102010 -- PalladiumPalladium Dominated by global gasoline vehicle production.Dominated by global gasoline vehicle production.
Gasoline vehicle output grew by 23% globally, withGasoline vehicle output grew by 23% globally, with..
Palladium demand surged 30% to 5.2m oz.Palladium demand surged 30% to 5.2m oz.
Substitution gains in diesel & gasoline, due toSubstitution gains in diesel & gasoline, due to
pa a um s cos a van age over p a num, an a ma orpa a um s cos a van age over p a num, an a ma orrecovery in car production.recovery in car production.
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
30/44
GlobalGlobal Light Gasoline ProductionLight Gasoline Production up 23%up 23%Developed markets rise 21%, emerging markets up 25%Developed markets rise 21%, emerging markets up 25%
60
40
Other regions
China
+144
30
onunits apan
North America
Euro e
+233
20mill
+337
+147
10+334 Labels show change in
palladium demand in
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
; up . m oz
Source:Source: GFMS, IHS AutomotiveGFMS, IHS Automotive
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
31/44
Industrial ApplicationsIndustrial Applications PalladiumPalladium3.0
2.0
.
1.5
illionoz er
Electronics
1.0Chemical
Dental
0.0
.
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
ource: GFMSource: GFMS ((Platinum & Palladium Survey 2011)Platinum & Palladium Survey 2011)
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
32/44
Jewellery inJewellery in 20102010 -- PalladiumPalladium
Global jewellery demand fell by 27% to 809,000 ozGlobal jewellery demand fell by 27% to 809,000 oz The fall in Chinese fabrication dominated the global declines; ifThe fall in Chinese fabrication dominated the global declines; if
China is excluded, the drop was limited to 7%China is excluded, the drop was limited to 7%
Chinese offtake slum ed b 40% to a seven ear lowChinese offtake slum ed b 40% to a seven ear low Loss of confidence in palladium by the trade, despite high marginsLoss of confidence in palladium by the trade, despite high margins
Handicapped by lack of marketing of the metal, no SGE tradingHandicapped by lack of marketing of the metal, no SGE tradingw c as e o a ac o pr ce ransparency,w c as e o a ac o pr ce ransparency,
Demand elsewhere also falteredDemand elsewhere also faltered
US demand weakened by 7%, due partly to the shift to silver andUS demand weakened by 7%, due partly to the shift to silver andnonnon--precious metals jewelleryprecious metals jewellery
In contrast, European demand for carat palladium jewellery roseIn contrast, European demand for carat palladium jewellery rose
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
33/44
Su l &Su l & DemandDemand -- PalladiumPalladium
Headline SupplyHeadline Supply 7,5047,504 8,0678,067
Fabrication DemandFabrication Demand 7,5917,591 8,6188,618
We consider this the preferred measure of palladiumsWe consider this the preferred measure of palladiums
underlying fundamentals.underlying fundamentals.
ross e c mp es a re uc on n a oveross e c mp es a re uc on n a ove--groun s oc s.groun s oc s.
Source: GFMSSource: GFMS ((Platinum & Palladium Survey 2011)Platinum & Palladium Survey 2011)
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
34/44
Supply &Supply & DemandDemand -- PalladiumPalladium
000 oz000 oz 20092009 20102010
Russian State SalesRussian State Sales 1,1001,100 800800
xc ange ra e un sxc ange ra e un s ,,
SubSub--totaltotal 593593 (233)(233)
Residual Surplus (Deficit)Residual Surplus (Deficit) 507507 (784)(784)
* Negative numbers for ETFs indicate net additional investment* Negative numbers for ETFs indicate net additional investment
Source: GFMSSource: GFMS ((Platinum & Palladium Survey 2011)Platinum & Palladium Survey 2011)
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
35/44
World Investment*World Investment* -- PalladiumPalladium7002500
600
2000
400
500
1500Milu
nces Net Value of WorldNet Value of World
InvestmentInvestment
3001000
lionUS
$h
ousand
100
200
500
00
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
*World Investment is the sum of retail investment, net growth in ETF and residual surplus (deficit)*World Investment is the sum of retail investment, net growth in ETF and residual surplus (deficit)
SourceSource: GFMS: GFMS ((Platinum & Palladium Survey 2011)Platinum & Palladium Survey 2011)
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
36/44
PlatinumPlatinum Outlook for 2011Outlook for 2011
Pl iPl i O l k f 2011O l k f 2011
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
37/44
PlatinumPlatinum Outlook for 2011Outlook for 2011
South Africa & Russia expected to stabiliseSouth Africa & Russia expected to stabiliseNorth America to gain stronglyNorth America to gain strongly Old jewellery scrap also likely to rise in response to pricesOld jewellery scrap also likely to rise in response to prices
Demand to edge higher, but remain below preDemand to edge higher, but remain below pre--crisis levelcrisis level Substitution & thrifting to hamper rate of increaseSubstitution & thrifting to hamper rate of increase Industrial demand to grow modestlyIndustrial demand to grow modestly Jewellery offtake to be curbed by higher prices & stocksJewellery offtake to be curbed by higher prices & stocks
Gross surplus to recur in 2011Gross surplus to recur in 2011 likely to be up on 2010likely to be up on 2010 Price sensitive jewellery demand may also sufferPrice sensitive jewellery demand may also suffer
Nonetheless, support from investors seems set to continueNonetheless, support from investors seems set to continue ow n eres ra es, currency ears, worr es over g n a onow n eres ra es, currency ears, worr es over g n a on Although the global economic recovery remains fragileAlthough the global economic recovery remains fragile
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
38/44
Platinum ExposurePlatinum Exposure ETFs & Nymex FuturesETFs & Nymex Futures
2 000
$2,500
3.0
3.5
$1,5002.0
2.5
z
$1,0001.5
m
illion
$5000.5
.
$00.0Apr-07 Jan-08 Oct-08 Jul-09 Apr-10 Jan-11
Other ETF Nymex net long Price (rhs)
Source:Source: GFMS, CFTC, respective ETF issuersGFMS, CFTC, respective ETF issuers
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
39/44
PlatinumPlatinum ForecastForecast TTrading Rangerading Range toto EndEnd--20112011
-- ,, $2,500
$2,000$1,925$1,925
$1,500 $1,675$1,675
$1,000
$500
Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
London 2nd fix forecast low forecast high
Source:Source: GFMS, Thomson ReutersGFMS, Thomson Reuters
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
40/44
PalladiumPalladium Outlook for 2011Outlook for 2011
P ll diP ll di O tl k f 2011O tl k f 2011
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
41/44
PalladiumPalladium Outlook for 2011Outlook for 2011
. . .. Subdued gain in mine production, mostly from North AmericaSubdued gain in mine production, mostly from North America
Sharp rise in autocatalyst scrap, reaching almost 20% of total supplySharp rise in autocatalyst scrap, reaching almost 20% of total supply
Demand growth to broadly match increase in supplyDemand growth to broadly match increase in supply Autocatalyst to rise on higher vehicle production (gasoline)Autocatalyst to rise on higher vehicle production (gasoline) Ga ns rom US may e strong ut e y to e wea n EuropeGa ns rom US may e strong ut e y to e wea n Europe
Effects of disaster in Japan may be considerable, home & abroadEffects of disaster in Japan may be considerable, home & abroad
Growth in China ma slow down si nificantlGrowth in China ma slow down si nificantl Jewellery & retail investmentJewellery & retail investment both likely to declineboth likely to decline
Gross deficit to remain high, similar level to 2010Gross deficit to remain high, similar level to 2010
RussianRussian stock salesstock sales to stay broadly flat, around 0.8m oz.to stay broadly flat, around 0.8m oz. Sentiment towards palladium to remain positiveSentiment towards palladium to remain positive
ETFs have climbed strongly so far this year.ETFs have climbed strongly so far this year.
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
42/44
Palladium ExposurePalladium Exposure ETFs & Nymex FuturesETFs & Nymex Futures
$800
$900
3.5
4.0
$500
$6002.5
3.0
z
$300
$400
1.5
2.0
m
illion
$100
$200
0.5
1.0
$00.0
Apr-07 Jan-08 Oct-08 Jul-09 Apr-10 Jan-11
on on ew or u us aer
Other ETF Nymex net long Price (rhs)
Source:Source: GFMS, CFTC, respective ETF issuersGFMS, CFTC, respective ETF issuers
P ll diP ll di FF TT di Rdi R E dE d 20112011
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
43/44
PalladiumPalladium ForecastForecast TTrading Rangerading Range toto EndEnd--20112011
-- $1,000
London 2nd fix forecast low forecast hi h
$800
$600$650$650
$200
$0
- - - - - - -
Source:Source: GFMS, Thomson ReutersGFMS, Thomson Reuters
8/12/2019 Platinum Palladium Survey 2011 Presentation
44/44