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PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLES READINESS: RATING CITIES IN THE UNITED STATES
Celeste Wanner, Kyle Clark-Sutton, Saba Siddiki, John Rupp*, Sanya Carley, John Graham
School of Public and environmental Affairs
Indiana University
Organization
Introduction Research design & analysis Results Conclusions
Introduction
Consumer interest in PEVs is not yet high enough to meet manufacturer production goals or policy goals for EV adoption set by the federal government and ZEV states
This study examines additional municipal, along with their respective state measures that could stimulate consumer interest in EVs
Understand how cities compare across the country
Incentives to EV deployment
Goal: Accelerate the adoption of plug-in electric vehicles (PEV)
Objectives: Offer a suite of benefits to owners and operators of PEVs, including financial incentives and infrastructure perks How: “hard” and “soft policies supporting PEVs, infrastructure, and
operation Whose policies: Municipalities but, also how they interact with state
policies All influenced the same by federal policies, therefore not considered
Who are the purchasers: include individuals, businesses, and municipal government entities
Examples of Incentives
Municipal policies can include: Special parking privileges, especially in congested areas City-subsidized charging stations Streamlined permit procedures for installing a home charging
station State policies can include:
HOV-lane access State-level tax credits and rebates for purchase of PEVs or
charging equipment Structure of electricity pricing Other reduced fees, such as vehicle registration or inspection
fees
Creating an index of “readiness” Built an index that identifies and ranks the
“readiness” of 36 major U.S. cities for integration of PEVs into the transportation sector
Readiness is the degree to which a city supports the adoption of electric vehicles
Municipalities were ranked based on how they scored in the index
Challenges to analysis
Policies of cities (and the states in which they are located) are by no means uniform, complicating the development of an index
Interaction of policies (fed, state, muni)
Dynamic terrain: polices are coming and going as well as changing through time
Changing price of petroleum…
Background – ZEV program
California enacted a zero emissions vehicle (ZEV) requirement for vehicle manufacturers doing business in the state
Congress has permitted other states to enact a program identical to the CA ZEV program
9 states have adopted the ZEV program: Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New
Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont 8 of these have further signed an MOU to promote ZEVs 2 adopted but then repealed ZEV: Arizona, New Mexico 3 considered but did not adopt: Colorado, Utah and
Illinois
Research goals
Develop a preliminary scoring methodology for comparing cities’ PEV readiness
Answer the question: Does participation in the ZEV program have a meaningful impact on EV readiness in cities assessed?
Research Design
Approach to rating cities was constructed from the perspective of a potential new car buyer considering a PEV
Identified 16 variables related to consumer interest in PEVs (variables that can vary by city or by state, and
therefore cities in different states) Selected 25 largest cities by population, plus
largest cities in ZEV states, as well as 5 other large cities included in other major PEV studies Cities represent ripe markets for PEV adoption 36 cities in 25 states
Location of cities and ZEV states
Research Design/Analysis
Two scoring systems Simple scoring system
Transforms variables into dichotomous variables and weights each equally
Weighted scoring system Extra weight added to variables
recommended as best practices or that have been demonstrated to have significant impact on PEV sales
Index Variables: Financial Incentives
Variable Description Rationale
Hard Incentives Consumer Purchase Incentives
Whether the city or state offers a tax credit or rebate for consumers to purchase a PEV
Purchase incentives bring down the upfront costs of PEVs to be more competitive with traditional vehicles
Public/Private Purchase Incentives
Whether the city or state offers a tax credit or rebate for businesses or government entities to purchase a PEV
Consumer EVSE incentives
Whether the city or state offers a tax credit or rebate for consumers to purchase and/or install EVSE
Public/Private EVSE Incentives
Whether the city or state offers a tax credit or rebate for businesses or government entities to purchase and/or install EVSE
Time of Use/Special PEV Electricity Pricing
Whether the main utility in the city offers TOU pricing (unrelated to PEV ownership) or a specific PEV charging rate to PEV owners
Low electricity prices for overnight PEV charging decreases costs to consumer
Reduced fees Whether a PEV is afforded special consideration with regard to registration fees, vehicle tax, or sales and use tax
Decreased costs for PEV driver
Non-financial incentives
Soft Incentives Charging stations per capita Total number of level 1, level 2,
and DC fast chargers in the city (as of February 2015) per capita
Access to more chargers reduces range anxiety
HOV lane access Whether the state affords special HOV access to PEV owners
HOV lane access reduces commuting time for PEV drivers in cities with high congestion problems
EVSE Permitting Whether the city has streamlined the permitting process for installing EV Supply Equipment
Speeding up the process to have the proper wiring and charger installed in a consumer's home or business
Parking Privileges Whether the city offers free, reduced cost, or reserved parking for PEV owners
Free or dedicated parking can save PEV drivers time and money
Additional Index VariablesFuel Cost Environment
Gas Price April 2015 prices Higher gas prices may make EVs more attractive to consumers
Electricity Price 2013 electricity price for the main utility in the city
Lower electricity prices may make EVs more attractive to consumers
Special Fleet Programs
Municipal Fleet Whether the local government has made efforts to integrate PEVs into municipal fleets ("Lead by example")
Cities that are leading by example help demonstrate the benefits of EVs to citizens
EV Car Sharing Service Whether an electric vehicle car sharing service is offered in the city
EV car sharing offers more opportunities for residents to experience PEVs, and it is indicative of the general attitude towards PEVs
Additional Indicators
Clean Cities Coalition Whether a Clean Cities Coalition exists in the city
Clean Cities coalitions assist in the promotion of PEVs in their communities
Tesla Direct Sale Whether Tesla is allowed to sell directly to consumers in the state.
This is considered an indicator of the general attitude towards PEVs in the state
Results
Simple and weighted scoring results were similar, with little movement in the rankings
Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient test – No statistically significant difference between two
scoring approaches. Spearman’s ρ (rho) = 0.9364 p-value = .0000
Results
A t-test (comparison test) was applied under both scoring conditions to determine if there is a statistically significant difference between scores for cities in ZEV states vs. non-ZEV states.
No statistically significant difference between ZEV and non-ZEV
Simple Scoring
Weighted Scoring
ZEV Mean 8.69 ± 0.98 12.46 ± 1.65
Non-ZEV Mean 7.17 ± 0.54 10.26 ±1.02
t = -1.47 -1.20
Significance (p-value) 0.15 0.24
How they ranked:
Simple Score by Category
Portlan
d (OR)
Los A
ngeles
Baltimore
San Fr
ancis
co
San Jo
se
Seatt
leAusti
n
Orlando
Phoenix
Honolulu
Houston
Fort
Worth
Jackso
nville
Philadelp
hia
San Antonio
Charlotte
El Paso
Providen
ce0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Hard Purchase Incentives Soft Incentives Fuel Cost EnvironmentSpecial Fleet Programs Other
= ZEV states
Columbus
Providence
Detroit
Charlotte
Philadelphia
Newark
Jacksonville
Fort Worth
Honolulu
Phoenix
Boston
Indianapolis
Seattle
Austin
Chicago
Denver
New York City
Washington DC
0 5 10 15 20 25
Pev readiness index - Weighted scoring
(ZEV cit ies in green)
Weighted Score
ColumbusPortland (ME)
ProvidenceEl PasoDetroit
MemphisCharlotte
San AntonioPhiladelphia
BurlingtonNewarkRaleigh
JacksonvilleDallas
Fort WorthNashvilleHonoluluHartfordPhoenix
San JoseBoston
HoustonIndianapolis
San DiegoSeattle
OrlandoAustin
San FranciscoChicagoAtlantaDenver
Los AngelesNew York City
BaltimoreWashington DC
Portland (OR)
0 5 10 15 20 25
P E V R E A D IN E S S IN D E X - W E IGH T E D S CO R IN G
Hard Purchase Incentives Soft Incentives Fuel Cost Environment
Special Fleet Programs Other
ColumbusPortland (ME)
ProvidenceEl PasoDetroit
MemphisCharlotte
San AntonioPhiladelphia
BurlingtonNewarkRaleigh
JacksonvilleDallas
Fort WorthNashvilleHonoluluHartfordPhoenix
San JoseBoston
HoustonIndianapolis
San DiegoSeattle
OrlandoAustin
San FranciscoChicagoAtlantaDenver
Los AngelesNew York City
BaltimoreWashington DC
Portland (OR)
0 5 10 15 20 25
PEV R EA D IN ES S IN D EX - WEIGH TED S CO R IN G
Hard Purchase Incentives Soft Incentives Fuel Cost Environment Special Fleet Programs Other
Conclusions
Cities, and their states, differ considerably in how ready they are for PEVs
Location of a city in a ZEV state is a weak indication of municipal readiness for PEV adoption
Conclusions cont.
Not all ZEV states are implementing the policies that are needed to spur PEV adoption. Recently, some states have enacted higher fees on the
registration of PEVs, on the stated rationale that EVs do not pay fuel taxes to support road construction and repair.
Others are adding (Connecticut) or removing (Georgia) monetary incentives.
ZEV states opting in or out Proactive policies are especially important in the current
climate of lower oil prices Lack of proactive policies will make achieving EV
adoption goals, ZEV mandates, and climate change mitigation goals much more difficult…in both states and cities
Conclusions cont.
High level of interactivity required between state and municipal policies For municipal policies to be both effective and efficient,
they need to be coordinated with state-level policies States influence city-level policy through:
Funding support for local PEV-supportive policies Encouraging and coordinating polices Assisting in implementation
Municipal policies need to be coordinated with the policies of electric utilities and the commercial structures that service residents of the city and surrounding communities
Questions?
Additional Resources
International Council on Clean Transportation. “Assessment of leading electric vehicle promotion activities in United States cities.” Available at http://www.theicct.org/leading-us-city-electric-vehicle-activities.
Alternative Fuels Data Center (AFDC). 2015a. Electric vehicle charging station locations. U.S. Department of Energy.
Alternative Fuels Data Center (AFDC). 2015b. Federal and state laws and incentives. U.S. Department of Energy.
Benecchi, A., Mattila, M., and Syed, S. N. 2010. PEV Readiness Study: Electric Vehicles in America. Roland Berger Strategy Consultants and Rocky Mountain Institute.
Carley, S., R. Krause, B. Lane, J. Graham. 2013. “Intent to purchase a plug-in electric vehicle: A survey of early impressions in large US cites.” Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 18.
EIA. 2015. Table 6: 2013 Utility Bundled Retail Sales – Residential. Electric Sales, Revenue, and Price.
Egbue, O., & Long, S. 2012. “Barriers to widespread adoption of electric vehicles: an analysis of consumer attitudes and perceptions.” Energy Policy, 48, 717-729.
GasBuddy. 2015. USA and Canada Current Average Gas Prices by City/State/Province.
Lutsey, N., Searle, S., Chambliss, S., and Bandivadekar, A. 2015. Assessment of Leading Electric Vehicle Promotion Activities in United States Cities. International Council on Clean Transportation.
Scoring Methodology
Table 2. Scoring Methodology
Variable Description Weighted Scoring Methodology
Hard Purchase-related Incentives Consumer Purchase Incentives
EV Purchase and EVSE incentives are defined as any specific dollar amount offered by the state, local government, or utility as an incentive for the purchase of a PEV or the purchase and installation of EVSE.
No Incentives = 0 pts Incentives $1 - $2,499 = 1 pt. Incentives $2,500 - $4,999 = 2 pts. Incentives $5,000 - $9,999 = 3 pts. Incentives ≥ $10,000 = 4 pts. *The highest possible incentive amount was used for scoring.
Public/Private Purchase Incentives Consumer EVSE incentives Public/Private EVSE Incentives
Time of Use/Special EV Electricity Pricing
Whether the utility offers TOU pricing (unrelated to EV ownership) or a specific EV charging rate to EV owners
No weighted scoring
Reduced Fees Whether a PEV is afforded special consideration with regard to registration fees, vehicle tax, or sales and use tax
Weighted scoring reflects how many exceptions are allowed (e.g. registration fees only or registration fees and vehicle tax).
Soft Incentives
Scoring Methodology cont.
Soft Incentives Charging Station Count The number of L1, L2, and DC Fast charging
stations per capita. Simple scoring assigned 1 point to cities with greater than 15 chargers per million residents. Weighted scoring assigned 1, 2, and 3 points for cities with greater than 15, 30, and 45 chargers per million residents respectively.
EVSE Permitting Whether the city has streamlined the permitting process for installing EVSE
1 point for online permitting 2 points for instant or expedited permitting
HOV Access Whether a PEV is allowed unrestricted access to HOV lanes within the city of interest.
Cities with "Yes" scores are weighted using congestion data (congested travel as % of VMT): Congestion > 80: 3 points Congestion > 60: 2 points Congestion > 40: 1 point
Parking Privileges Whether free parking or reserved parking is offered for EV owners
Weighted scoring is based on the extent of the special privileges. Generally 1 point is assigned for EV-only reserved spaces. 2 points are assigned if EVs receive free parking in a high-demand location or are exempt from parking fees everywhere.
Scoring Methodology cont.
Parking Privileges Whether free parking or reserved parking is offered for EV owners
Weighted scoring is based on the extent of the special privileges. Generally 1 point is assigned for EV-only reserved spaces. 2 points are assigned if EVs receive free parking in a high-demand location or are exempt from parking fees everywhere.
Fuel Cost Environment Gas Price Average gas price on 4/14/15 1 point assigned if price was above
national average No weighted scoring
Electricity Price Average electricity price for 2013 (cents/kWh)
1 point assigned if price was below national average No weighted scoring
Special Fleet Programs Municipal Fleet Whether the local government has made
efforts to integrate PEVs into municipal fleets ("Lead by example")
1 additional point assigned to those cities that have made substantial investments in BEVs for their municipal fleet (>50 BEVs purchased or committed)
EV Car Sharing Whether a car sharing service featuring EVs exclusively is present in the city.
No weighted scoring
Additional indicators Clean Cities Coalition Whether a Clean Cities Coalition exists in
the city of interest No weighted scoring
Tesla Direct Sale Whether Tesla is allowed to sell directly to consumers in the state rather than through a dealer.
No weighted scoring
Simple Score - Detail
Weighted Score - Detail
weighting
how and why the weighted score was devised - yes that is correct that I/we looked at the literature and identified which variables are often recommended as being very important or have been shown to increase adoption in some studies, so then came up with a way to score those higher than only a 1 or 0. The numerical variables (like the level of the incentive) that were split into ranges to give increasingly more points to higher levels of monetary incentive, or charging stations per million people. HOV lane access was weighted higher in areas with progressively worse congestion (with points allocated to different ranges of congestion values). For charger station permitting, we decided to give 1 point if they offered online permitting, and 2 points if they offered instant or expedited permitting and inspection. For parking privileges we gave a score of 1 if there was mention of reserved spaces for EV charging, and 2 points if they offer free parking to EVs.
Weighted score by category
Portlan
d (OR)
New Yo
rk City
Los A
ngeles
Chicago
San Fr
ancis
co
San Dieg
o
Indianap
olis
Boston
San Jo
se
Hartford
HonoluluDall
as
Raleigh
Philadelp
hia
San Antonio
Charlotte
El Paso
Providen
ce0
5
10
15
20
25
Hard Purchase Incentives Soft Incentives Fuel Cost EnvironmentSpecial Fleet Programs Other
= ZEV states