FACTS A M E R I C A N S E C U R I T Y P R O J E C T NEW JERSEYPay Now, Pay Later: New Jersey Admittedly, the eects oclimate change, a complex and intri- cate phenomenon, are dicult to predict with precision . Inormed scientic and economic projections, as we have used in our research, however, allow us to see that New Jersey aces signicant losses in industries crucial to its economy ino action is taken. Moreover, data shows New Jersey is poised to benet rom the research, development, and distribution orenewable energy technologies. It has the capacity to produce at least 31% oits electricity rom renewable sources, but currently generates only a raction othat. Since New Jersey also typicallyproduces at least haloits electricityrom clean nuclear power, 5 boosting renewable production to 31%— mainly through wind power—would create tens othousands ojobs 6 and reduce the state’ s ossil uel use to less than 20% oelectrical consumption. Climate change severely threatens New Jersey’s coast, which boasts 60% ostate residents, over $100 billion in land and property values, and a $30 billion p er year tourism industry concentrated in just our shoreline counties. 1 A mere 1% decrease in visitors to New Jersey annually would cost the state an estimated 40,000 jobs and $3.7 billion in indirect losses by 201 7. 2 New Jersey has the potential to generate nearly a third oits electricity rom renewable sources, 3 and clean energy investments can create as many as 48,0 00 jobs. 4 According to a new study, a ailure to mitigate the eects oclimate change could begin to cause serious gross domestic product and job losses within the nex t several decades. Between 2010 and 2050, it could cost New Jersey $38.9 billion in GDP and nearly 206,000 jobs.* Should we ail to take action against climate change, Garden Staters have much to lose. Pay Later: The Cost oInaction For many, New Jersey is synonymous with its Atlantic coastline, particu- larly the sandy beaches othe amous Jersey Shore. 7 It is this coastline that aces the greatest risks rom climate change. Recent projections tha t take into account the Intergovernment al Panel on Climate Change’s global sea rise estimates and observed local trends suggest the sea level around NewJersey will rise nearly 1.5 inches by2020, and nearly hala oot—5.6 inches—by 2050. 8 Tese estimates do not account or a eared acceleration in sea level rise caused by possible rapid changes to ice fow, which could make the changes signicantly greater. 9 As it is, the sea le vel around New Jer- sey has risen at nearly twice the global rate over the past century, and everyinch oincrease translates to roughlysix lost eet oshoreline—ar more than the national average. 10 Combined Source: National Conerence oState Legislatures and Center or Integrative Environmenta l Research *GDP numbers are based on a 0% discount rate. Job losses are measured in labor years, or entire yearsoulltime employment. Backus, George et al., “ Assessing the Near-erm Risk oClimate Uncertainty: Interdepen dencies among the U.S. States,” Sandia Report (Sandia National Laboratories, May 2010), 141. https://cfwebprod.sa ndia.gov/cfdocs/CCIM/docs/Cli mate_Risk_Assess ment.pdf(accessedMarch 23, 2011). $0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 Millions ($) Cost of Coastal Protection/Remediation Compared with the 1992 Nor'easter 1992 Nor 'Easter, $503 mill ion in d amage s Protection against one foot rise, $1.9 billion Protection against three foot rise, $9.2 billion Una nticipate d four foot rise, $10 bill ion+ in damag es
FACTSA M E R I C A N S E C U R I T Y P R O J E C T
NEW JERSEYPay Now, Pay Later: New Jersey
A dmittedly, the e ects o climate
change, a complex and intri-cate phenomenon, are di cultto predict with precision. In ormedscienti c and economic projections, as we have used in our research, however,allow us to see that New Jersey acessigni cant losses in industries crucialto its economy i no action is taken.
Moreover, data shows New Jersey ispoised to bene t rom the research,development, and distribution o renewable energy technologies. It hasthe capacity to produce at least 31% o its electricity rom renewable sources,but currently generates only a ractiono that. Since New Jersey also typically produces at least hal o its electricity
rom clean nuclear power,5 boostingrenewable production to 31%—mainly through wind power—wouldcreate tens o thousands o jobs6 andreduce the state’s ossil uel use to less
than 20% o electrical consumption.
Climate change severely threatens New Jersey’s coast, which boasts 60% o state residents,over $100 billion in land and property values, and a $30 billion per year tourism industryconcentrated in just our shoreline counties. 1
A mere 1% decrease in visitors to New Jersey annually would cost the state an estimated40,000 jobs and $3.7 billion in indirect losses by 2017. 2
New Jersey has the potential to generate nearly a third o its electricity rom renewablesources, 3 and clean energy investments can create as many as 48,000 jobs. 4
According to a new study, a ailure to mitigate the e ects o climate change could beginto cause serious gross domestic product and job losses within the next several decades.Between 2010 and 2050, it could cost New Jersey $38.9 billion in GDP and nearly 206,000 jobs.*
Should we ail to take action against
climate change, Garden Staters havemuch to lose.
Pay Later: The Cost o Inaction
For many, New Jersey is synonymous with its Atlantic coastline, particu-larly the sandy beaches o the amous Jersey Shore.7 It is this coastline that
aces the greatest risks rom climatechange. Recent projections that takeinto account the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change’s global searise estimates and observed local trendsuggestthe sea level around New Jersey will rise nearly 1.5 inches by 2020, and nearly hal a oot—5.6inches—by 2050 .8 Tese estimates donot account or a eared acceleration isea level rise caused by possible rapidchanges to ice fow, which could makethe changes signi cantly greater.9
As it is, the sea level around New Jer-sey has risen at nearly twice the globalrate over the past century, andevery inch o increase translates to roughly six lost eet o shoreline— ar morethan the national average.10 Combined
Source: National Con erence o State Legislatures and Center or Integrative Environmental R
*GDP numbers are based on a 0% discount rate. Job losses are measured in labor years, or entire years o ulltime employment. Backus, George et al., “Assessing the Near- erm Risk o Climate Uncertainty:Interdependencies among the U.S. States,” Sandia Report (Sandia National Laboratories, May 2010),141. https://cfwebprod.sandia.gov/cfdocs/CCIM/docs/Climate_Risk_Assessment.pdf (accessed
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with the predicted increase in stormintensity, rising sea levels threaten bothdensely-populated coastal communi-ties11 and the ragile wetlands centralto New Jersey’s natural abundance.12
A Vanishing Shore
Soil erosion and land subsidence makeNew Jersey’s shore particularly vul-nerable to climate change.13 Climatemodels agree that by 2050, currently “once-in-a-century” oods will hit Atlantic City as o ten as every our years.14 In addition, the New Jersey Department o Environmental Protec-tion calculates that 20-year storms willstrike as o ten as once every ve yearsby 2050.15 New Jersey is particularly susceptible to Nor’easters, such as theone in December 1992 that caused$503 million in damages.16
Based on a one to three oot rise in sealevel, the Environmental Protection Agency estimated a cost o $160-790million just to protect the residents o Long Beach Island—roughly $9-44million per mile o shore, or a total o $1.9-9.2 billion i extrapolated to the
entire 210-mile shoreline.17
I climatechange continues unabated and seasrise our eet, as the most ominousmodels predict, New Jersey will likely su er damages exceeding $10 billion.18
A Threat to New Jersey’s Workers
More immediate than episodic food-ing or gradual sea level rises is the
likely e ect o climate change on New Jersey’s work orce.
Te tourism industry is the largestprivate employer in the state, account-
ing or some 416,000 jobs,20 or 10.2%o the total non arm work orce.21 Tese tourism jobs will be severely
a eccted by climate change.22
Beacherosion, more requent and power ulstorms, fooding o low-lying areassuch as Atlantic City, and the losso ecotourism destinations such as wetlands all threaten the economicsecurity o this industry. A mere 1%decrease in visitors to New Jersey annually would cost the state an es-timated 40,000 jobs and $3.7 billionin indirect costs by 2017 .23
In addition, approximately 6% o New Jersey’s workers commute to New York City.24 A joint report by the NationalCon erence o State Legislatures andthe University o Maryland Center orIntegrative Environmental Researchnotes that most o the bridges, tunnels,and rail lines connecting New Jersey with New York City “operate below,at or near sea level,” making foodinga likely and expensive proposition. It
estimates recovery ollowing a ma- jor food to exceed $1 billion,25 notcounting the business losses incurredby hundreds o thousands o work-ers being stranded away rom their jobs. ogether, these groups comprise19.4% o New Jersey’s total work orce,
putting nearly one in ve workers atrisk.
A Less Verdant Garden State
Despite being the most densely populated state, New Jersey currently
enjoys an impressive orest cover o 39% and a strong agricultural pres-ence.26 With continued high emis-sions o greenhouse gases, however,climate models predict that by 2100New Jersey could ace month-long droughts nearly every summer 27 and winters with signi cantly ewer dayso snow cover.28
Increased average temperatures willnegatively a ect the dairy sector29 andcool-weather ruit at the heart o New Jersey’s agricultural production.30 Inaddition, loss o wetlands will greatly reduce habitat critical to commerciallyimportant sea ood species, such asclams, winter founder, and menha-den.31
Pay Now: The Beneftso Taking ActionDespite the challenges posed by cli-mate change, New Jersey possesses theresources to make signi cant and long-lasting positive change now. A reportby the Union o Concerned Scientistsconcludes, “as both a global leader intechnology, nance, and innovationand a major source o heat-trapping emissions, the Northeast is wellpositioned to help drive nationaland international progress in reduc-ing emissions .”32 Indeed, in 2007,New Jersey became only the third statein the country to make the reductiono greenhouse gases law, approvingamong the nation’s most ambitious
Sources: Byrne; New Jersey Department o Labor and Work orce Development; Division o axa-tion, New Jersey Department o the reasury 19
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27 State o New Jersey,What is Global Warming? , http://www.nj.gov/globalwarming/about/ (accessed September 2, 2010); P.C. Frum-ho et al., 9; New Jersey Department o Environmental Protection.
28 Frumho et al., 1, 26-7.
29 National Con erence o State Legislatures and Center or Integrative Environmental Research, University o Maryland, 3.
30 Ibid., 3; Frumho et al., 67.
31 Frumho et al., 27-28.
32 Ibid., xii.
33 State o New Jersey, “Jul-06-07 Governor Signs Global Warming Response Act,”Global Warming . http://www.state.nj.us/global- warming/home/news/approved/070706.html (accessed October 21, 2010).
34 U.S. Energy In ormation Administration,New Jersey Quick Facts .
35 Ibid.
36 National Wildli e Federation, 2.
37 U.S. Energy In ormation Administration,New Jersey Quick Facts .
38 Pollin et al.,New Jersey Energy Master Plan,14.
39 Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative,Fact Sheet: Te Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative , 1-2. http://www.rggi.org/docs/RGGI_Fact_Sheet.pd (accessed January 25, 2011).
40 Te lower and upper bound are taken rom Pollin et al., 101,New Jersey Energy Master Plan,14; Pollin et al.,Te Economic Benefts oInvesting in Clean Energy , 60.
