Point estimationMarvin Froeder

Point estimation

Use samples to best guess

“In statistics, point estimation involves the use of sample data to calculate a single value (known as a statistic) which is to serve as a "best guess" or "best estimate" of an unknown (fixed or random) population parameter.”

Sample

TASK:

WE CONVEY:

Drink one can

One can = 2 point

Sample

TASK:

ESTIMATE TO

Drink 3 cans

3 cans = 6 points

Sample

TASK:

ESTIMATE TO

Drink 12 cans

Twelve cans = 24 points

Sample

TASK:

ESTIMATE TO

Drink THE can

The can = 30 points

Sample

TASK:

MORE OR LESS WORK THEN A CAN?

Drink a juice

One juice = 1 point

Sample

TASK:

MORE OR LESS WORK THEN A CAN?

Drink 2 shots

2 shots = 2 points

Sample

TASK:

CALL ME

Task

SIZE AS CHANGE

Velocity

points per time unit

“Velocity is a measurement of how much the team gets done in a sprint. Velocity is what actually got done in the last iteration not what is planned.”

Velocity

TASK -> 6 POINTS WHO? (ME)

History 2 hours ;)

Velocity: 3 points per hour

Velocity

TASK -> 6 POINTS WHO?

History 3,5 hours

Velocity: 1,72 points per hour

Velocity

TASK -> 6 POINTS WHO?

History ¿?

Velocity

TASK ~ 1 POINTS WHO? (ME)

History: ???

Know velocity: 3 points per hourRisk: Salty beer

Velocity

TASK ~ 1 POINTS WHO? (ME)

History: ???

Velocity: 3 points per hourRisks: What is that?

Velocity

TASK ~ 52 POINTS WHO? (TEAM)

History 1 hour

Team velocity: 52 points per hourIndividual velocity:5 points per hour

Velocity

TASK ~ 52 POINTS WHO?

10 hours per day x 2 days

Velocity: 26 points per day?Velocity:2,6 points per hour20,8 points per regular day

Velocity

VELOCITY = HISTORY / TIME

Velocity

MUST CHANGE ON EACH SPRINT (LAP)

Velocity

CHANGES AS TEAM CHANGES

Velocity

SLOW DOWN ON INCERTANTIES

Questions?