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Insert the title of your presentation herePresented by Name HereJob Title - Date
Policies towards a low carbon future for transport
Holger Dalkmann16.01.2009
Page 3
Table of contents
Introduction
Policy Instruments to tackle climate change
Existing and future UNFCCC instruments
Policy Scenarios for a low carbon future
Recommendation: Process Steps
1
2
3
4
5
Transport Trends in Asian Countries
• Urbanization leads to growing traffic and reduced accessibility. • Urban transport is shifting from non-motorized to motorized transport. • Private transport is growing while public transport looses attraction.• Only minority of car-owners profits from car-friendly transport policies.
Consequences: Increase of GHG gases, Air pollution, accidents, etc.
• Access to employment, health and education is a basic need but roads alone can not fight poverty
• North-South-Transfer of technology and way-of-life is not sustainable.• The extension of road networks is not always a the appropriate option,
maintenance of existing roads would often be better.• Central planning without a participatory approach neglects the needs of
people and is not efficient.
Transport is still considered as a driving force to economic growth Supply of transport infrastructure is often seen as role of
governments (infrastructure as a merit good) Transport sector is a common playground for politicians Problems arise from the multitude of stakeholders and divided
responsibility in financing Growing demand since private costs of transport don´t cover total
social and environmental costs (negative external effects are not internalized)
Lack of Integrated Transport Planning (ITP) Climate Change does not play any role in national as well urban
decision-making
Barriers: Main Factors for Transport Growth
REGULATORY INSTRUMENTS (R)
,
PLANNING INSTRUMENTS (P)
ECONOMIC INSTRUMENTS (E)
INFORMATION INSTRUMENTS (I)
TECHNOLOGICAL INSTRUMENTS (T)
AVAILABLE INSTRUMENTS
Carbon Emissions
CHOICE
POTENTIAL STRATEGY RESPONSES – REDUCING GHG EMISSIONSAVOID IMPROVESHIFT
I II RRR T TE EEP P
Sustainable Transport Strategy Responses
NON-MOTORISED TRANSPORT
Walking and Cycling
PUBLIC MOTORISED TRANSPORT
Public Transport - Bus, rail
TRAVEL DOES NOT TAKE PLACE
Need/desire to travel has been reduced
INDIVIDUAL MOTORISED TRANSPORT
Car, taxi
Decision to travel or not to travel and by which mode affects fuel consumption, and therefore carbon emissions -
Number of vehicles, level of congestion, driver behaviour, vehicle condition, fuel type
Leapfrogging of Transport Planning & Policy
participatory
sustainable
Stage 1 Europe bevor 1945
Stage 2Europe 1945-70‘
Stage 3Europe 70‘ - today
Stage 4Close future?
most Least Developed Countries (LDC) today
Developing and most Emerging Countries today
Leapfrogging-Process
Reproducing-Process
Leapfrogging: • Catching up in development while skipping false steps in between• Focus not only on technology but also visions, policy, and instruments
Motorization
ADB estimates 2005, 2008, 2015ADB estimates 2005, 2008, 2015
Trend
Leapfrogging
Delhi Transport
Source: ADB 2008
Role of transport under the current Kyoto Protocol
CDM does not work:2 transport projects out of 1186 registered projects!8 out 4151 projects in the pipeline 5 approved methodologies0.1 % of all CERs
No projects under Joint ImplementationTransport excluded in ETSNo specific link between Adaptation and Mitigation in the Adaptation Fund (Transport)
Future options for Mechanisms under 2012 regime
A) CDM - Bundling of projects: Initiative to apply same methodology in different cities (e.g BRT)
B) Policy/Programmatic CDM: CERs to public actor for the application of an instrument towards a sustainable transport system
C) Sectoral no lose Targets: CERs for meeting ambitious reduction targets for GHG emission in the transport sector on local level (NAMA as a potential set-up for Sectoral Approach)
D) New transport design Mechanism (Clean Transport Mechanism)E) Integration of Transport Mitigation into Adaptation FundF) ETS: Investing income in Transport project in Developing
Countries
(Post-)Kyoto Instruments and their (upscale) potential
Status-Quo Post 2012
CDM + +
Programmatic CDM + ++
JI + +
ETS 0 ++
Adaptation Fund 0 ++
Sectoral no lose 0 +++
CTM 0 +++
Page 15
REGULATORY INSTRUMENT
S (R),
PLANNING INSTRUMENT
S
ECONOMIC INSTRUMENT
S (E)
INFORMATION INSTRUMENT
S (I)
TECHNOLOGICAL
INSTRUMENTS (T)
SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT INSTRUMENTS
POST CDM,
ETS POST JI Sectoral No lose
Adaptation Fund
POST 2012 INSTRUMENTS
Scenario 1 Trend
Weak Link
Scenario 2 Upscaling
Strong Link
Policy Scenarios: TREND vs UpscalingPost 2012 Success - UpscalingStrong Link between Post 2012 instruments and Sustainable TransportNo lose sectoral targets in place (NAMA as a framework)
Carbon Finance as a important driver for implementing Sustainable Transport Policy (High Incentive)
National Target in placeUrban Target established
Adaptation Fund combined with mitigation actions
Post 2012 TrendWeak Link between Post 2012 agreement and Sustainable TransportExtended flex mex (PoA CDM) but no major transport recognition
Carbon Finance as a minor driver for Implementing Sustainable Transport Policy (Low Incentive)
New methodologies, additionality no further barrier
Adaptation Fund plays no role for transport
Policy Scenarios – Consequences for enabling Sustainable Transport Policy
Post 2012 Trend Post 2012 Success - Upscaling
Main responsibilities on national level – strong support from donor organisation needed
Key role for international community – Implementation and Monitoring
Strong shift of national financial investment towards low carbon transport solutions (carbon tax etc.)
National government and urban decision-maker to set framework to combine carbon finance with local/national actions
Integrate Climate Change into Transport Planning and Policy
National Action Plans, Local Transport Plans needed
Process under Scenario 1 - Trend
Process under Scenario 2 - Upscaling
Conclusions
Following a the Western model will lead to an unsustainable future
A leapfrogging strategy towards a sustainable transport system is needed
Existing flexible mechanism are playing no role to support a leapfrogging strategy
Climate change can only be a driver if POST Kyoto includes transport (Carbon Finance as an enabler)
Otherwise the focus has to be on the co-benefits A mix of Post-Kyoto instruments together with local, regional and
national applications of policy instruments are needed