Political Ideologies & Landscape

LectureUnit II

Political Beliefs and Behaviors

*Slides courtesy of Mr. Young’s Learn, or Die resource

Part I. Political Ideologies

Are There Set American Ideals?

• Your textbook says are the following are common American beliefs: democracy, equality, individualism, competition, private business, conformity to authority, nationalism, and idealism. Do you believe these are true or two idealistic?

• The American Dream: The widespread belief that individual initiative and hard work can bring economic success, and that the United States is a land of opportunity. Does the American Dream exist?

• Do we have equality? Is racism, classism, sexism, homophobia, discrimination getting better or worse?

Economics and Ideology

• Political Ideology ties in directly with economics.

• In our country we have a Capitalist System and most people might say it is a good system.

• The basic goal of Capitalism is profit and wealth. It is a system based in the trade of goods where the ultimate goal is to achieve as much “capital” or wealth as possible. In a capitalist system companies compete with one and another for the most wealth.

Ideology and Capitalism

• In a true capitalistic system, a government would not regulate business in any way (Adam Smith). What some describe as “free markets” is often seen as a conservative ideology. There would be no regulations on workers, environmental laws, trade regulations, or laws against monopolies. There would be no tariffs or taxes.

• Monopolies: large corporations or firms that dominate an industry by eliminating (or discouraging) competition.

• In our country we have a modified Capitalist economy. The government regulates business and uses its authority to both influence and control.

The Political Spectrum

When I say liberal who and what issues do we

think of?

Liberalism• Generally favors proposals for reform,

open to new ideas for progress. • People who have defined it (the political

terms are always changing): Al Gore, Bill and Hillary Clinton, FDR, JFK, Mike Dukakis, Jimmy Carter, Deval Patrick, and Barack Obama.

• Often associated with the Democratic and Green parties.

• Liberal in a classical sense (17th and 18th century): minimize government’s role (especially in business).

Central View of Liberalism:

• There is a belief in the positive use of government to bring about justice and equality of opportunity.

• Use government in a positive way to protect the rights of individuals and the right to own private property, yet are willing to have government intervention.

• They seek protection by having government supply health care, education, and housing.

• Often supporters of: Unions, Affirmative Action, Tax rates that rise with income level (progressive tax), Worker’s rights.

• The government should stray away from legislating morals and family values.

Criticism of Liberalism• Too much reliance on government to solve

problems• Government is inherently unable to solve

social problems• Liberal programs results in higher taxes• Too many government restrictions hurt

capitalism and economy• Creates more bureaucracy and results in more

waste

When I say conservative who and what issues do we think

of?

Conservatism• Generally favors traditional views and tending

to oppose change (retaining status quo). • People who have defined it (the political terms

are always changing): George W. Bush, Ronald Reagan, Newt Gingrich, Trent Lott, Richard Nixon, Barry Goldwater

• Often associated with the Republican and Libertarian parties.

• Conservative in a classical sense (17th and 18th century): limited electorate, retention of social classes important and allows for law and order.

Central Views of Conservatism

• There is a belief that limited government ensures order, competitive markets, and personal opportunity.

• Pro-business – Government should not intervene with the economy.

• Opposes higher taxes, especially relative taxes (flat tax). Everyone should pay the same percentage of tax.

• Military has a strong role in constantly protect America from its enemies.

• Supports “Free Trade”• The government should encourage morals and family

values.• There should be a reduction of government programs

and an increase in privatization.

Criticism of Conservatism

• With little regulation in business, there is less protection of workers

• Failure to deal with social programs such as Sexism, Racism, and Classism

• Allows a widening economic gap between rich and poor

• Creates more problems by not taking care of social problems (lacks the spend now, save later approach)

• Overly aggressive in military use/more difficult to create international consensus and diplomacy

• Too close to the Christian Right, Corporate America who see all issues from an extreme standpoint

vs.

Ideology vs. Party• Political Ideology: refers to one’s beliefs about political

values and the role of government.• Political Party: An organized group of people with

common values and goals, who try to get their candidates elected to office.

• Parties are based on ideology, but very different and not mutually exclusive. Liberals are often Democrats and Conservatives are often Republican, but not always. You can be a liberal Republican or a conservative Libertarian, because ideology transcends political party. One is how you feel about issues and the other is the political organization you are registered with, which raises money, establishes primaries, and helps candidates run for office.

The Two Party System• The Democrats and The Republicans: In

the United States there are two major parties. This is very different from most western Democracies. For example in the UK, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, etc. there are multiple parties that fit on various parts of the political spectrum. From conservatives to liberals, to libertarians, to socialists and green parties.

• As a result in the United States there is large gaps in ideology among even party members of the Democrats or Republicans.

Political Base• Is the group of people which a political

candidate or political party feels is most likely to vote for them. Generally people in the political base are more extreme in their political views and more likely to vote (especially in primaries).

• For example: Republicans over the last few years have seen their base as fiscally conservative people and those who are highly religious, and will court them in the primaries by attempting to seem more socially and fiscally conservative.

Alternatives to the Two Ideology/Two Party System

Socialism• People who have defined it (the political

terms are always changing): Ralph Nader, Bernie Sanders, Michael Moore, Zach De La Rocha, Jill Stein (many may register as Democrats)

• Central View of Socialism: Government system based on public ownership of important industries (not retail, but industries related to the welfare of the people – electricity, water, health care, etc)

• Steeper tax burden, more government programs

• Protect citizens rights, while attempting to create Economic Equality (eliminate socio-economic classes)

Libertarianism• People who have defined it (the political

terms are always changing): Harry Browne, Carla Howell, Arnold Schwarzenneger, Jesse Ventura, Dennis Miller, Bill Maher, Drew Carey, Ted Nugent, PJ O’Rourke (many may register as Republicans)

• Central View of Libertarianism: Ideology that individual liberty can only flourish with little government

• Reduce government programs and taxes• Allow businesses to regulate themselves• Allow social welfare to be done by private

organizations

Dirty Word Politics: Left vs. RightTax and Spend Liberals vs.

Christian Extremists

Federalist 10 and Factions

• James Madison warns of factions (groups of citizens with interests contrary to the rights of others or the whole community) in Federalist 10. Madison writes that a nation dominated by factions would lead to a tyranny of the majority.

• Nowhere is there mention of political parties or interest groups in the Constitution! Many of the framers would have been ideologically opposed to political parties and interest groups (although many of them divided themselves in the debate over the Constitution).

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f0/JamesMadison.jpg

Part II. The Political Landscape

Political Efficacy• Is a person’s own belief that she or he can

influence politics through their actions and expression of opinion.

• If a person’s political efficacy is high, then they believe they have power over the decisions of their government.

• If a person’s personal efficacy is low, then they believe they have little power over the decisions of their government.

How has Bush and Obama affected

Political Efficacy?

We don’t have efficacy polls that recent, but

here is trust in government…

Political Landscape• Is a term used by political scientists to describe

the regional differences throughout a country. By using statistics through polling and determining where certain ideologies and political parties are predominant is gives us a picture of a specific areas of a nation.

We need a volunteer: lets try to determine which states

are more liberal and which states are more conservative…

By using the 2004 election, which was very

polarized, may have broken the US into red (voted

for Bush - conservative) and blue (voted for Kerry -

liberal) states.

A 2004 Election map adjusted for population.

The amount of red on the map is skewed because there are a lot of counties in which only a slim majority voted Republican. One possible way to allow for this to be reflected in a map (suggested by Robert Vanderbei at Princeton) is to use not just two colors on the map, red

and blue, but instead to use red, blue, and shades of purple to indicate percentages of voters. Here is what the normal map looks like if you do this. If you use this method

American appears less divided.

Let’s think about the 2000 Election…

Who voted for who in 2000?

(We will see if we are right at the

end)• Coast – • Inland – • Urban – • Suburban –• Rural – • Wealthy Communities – • Poor Communities – • Black – • Hispanic – • Asian – • Women – • Males –

• Coast – Gore• Inland – Bush• Urban – Gore• Suburban – Split (49-47 percent Bush according to exit

polls)• Rural – Bush• Wealthy Communities – Bush• Poor Communities – Gore• Black – Gore• Hispanic – Gore • Asian – Gore• Women – Gore• Males – Bush

How has this changed with the 2008

election?

The Final Count in 2008:

INSERT MAP HERE…

Is America Bluer Now?

Obama’s Margin of Victory

Demographics• Demographics: the study of the

characterizations of populations• Political Socialization: the process

where their community or society in general influences one’s political beliefs

• Ethnocentrism: selective perception that leads one to believe in the superiority of one’s nation or ethnic group.

Race and Ethnicity• Race: a grouping of human

characteristics based on appearance, usually skin color and eye shape (White, Black, Asian, Native American)

• Ethnicity: a social division based on national origin, religion, language, and culture (Latino, Pacific Islander, African American, Polish American, Chinese American, Afro-Caribbean, Native Hawaiian)

• Multiracial: Sociological term to describe a person of one or more race.

Minority Population in the US

How do whites vote? • Whites make up about 215 million people and

80% of all voters (Census 2005)• Whites voted for Bush (58%), Kerry (41%) in

2004 and Bush (54%), Gore (42%), and Nader (3%) in 2000.

• In 2008, Whites voted for McCain (53%) and Obama (45%).

White Males and Females

• White males voted for Bush (62%) and Kerry (37%) (CNN). In 2008, White males voted for McCain (57%) and Obama (41%). (PEW)

• White females voted for Bush (55%) and Kerry (44%). (CNN). White females voted for McCain (53%) to Obama (46%). (PEW)

How do African Americans vote?

• African Americans make up about 39 million people and 11% of all voters (Census 2005)

• Blacks voted for Kerry (88%), Bush (11%) in 2004 and Gore (90%), Bush (9%), and Nader (1%) in 2000. (CNN) In 2008, Blacks voted for Obama (95%) to McCain 4% (PEW).

How do Latinos vote?• Latinos make up about 42 million people and 8%

of all voters (Census 2005)• Latinos voted for Kerry (62%), Bush (32%) in

2004 and Gore (62%), Bush (35%), and Nader (2%) in 2000. (CNN) Latinos voted for Obama (66%) to McCain 32% (PEW).

How do Asians vote?• Asian Americans make up about 13 million

people and 2% of all voters (Census 2005)• Asians voted for Kerry (56%), Bush (44%) in

2004 and Gore (55%), Bush (44%), and Nader (1%) in 2000. (CNN) In 2008, Asians voted for Obama (61%) and McCain (39%)

How did American Indians vote?

• The concentration of American Indians in the US is traditionally in the west and centered on Indian reservations.

• American Indians/Pacific Islanders make up about 3 million people and <1% of all voters (Census 2005)

• American Indians/Pacific Islanders voted for Kerry (54%), Bush (40%) in 2004 and Gore (55%), Bush (39%), and Nader (1%) in 2000. (CNN)

Class in the U.S.2000• White Collar 58%• Blue Collar 32%• Farming 1%• Other 8% 1960• White Collar 39%• Blue Collar 40%• Farming 12%• Other 9%

Poverty and the United States

• In the US there are 11 million poor whites, 10 million poor blacks, 8 million poor Latinos, 1 million poor Asians, 570,000 poor American Indians.

• Approximately 7 percent of whites, 10 percent of Asians, 20 percent of Latinos, 24 percent of American Indians, and 28 percent of African Americans are living under the poverty line. (Census 2000)

How do poor and wealthy people vote?

• Extremely wealthy people (over $350,000) make up 3 million and about 3% of all voters.

• Wealthy people (over $92,000/under $350,000) make up about 60 million people and 18% of all voters (Census 2005).

• Poor people (under $22,000) make up about 75 million people and 10% of all voters (Census 2005).

• Extremely wealthy people voted for Bush (63%) and Kerry (35%). Wealthy people voted for Bush (57%) and Kerry (42%) in 2004. Poor people voted for Kerry (63%) and Bush (36%). (CNN)

The Middle Class• Middle class people (over $25,000 and under

$92,000) make up 162 million people and about 59% of all voters.

• Middle class people voted for Bush (54%) and Kerry (46%). (CNN)

Sexual Orientation• Between 5-10% of the population

identifies as gay or lesbian• In polls issues of strong concern within

the gay community: discrimination and gay marriage/civil unions.

• People identifying as gay or lesbian voted for Kerry (77%) and Bush (23%) in 2004 and Gore (70%) and Bush (25%). (CNN)

• Log Cabin Republicans are an organization for gay and lesbian conservatives.

Religion and the United States

Education and Voting• No High School (4%): Kerry 50% Bush

49%• High School Graduate (22%): Bush 52%

Kerry 47%• Some College (32%): Bush 54% Kerry

46%• College Graduate (26%): Bush 52%

Kerry 46%• Post-graduate Study (16%): Bush 44%

Kerry 55%(From CNN. Parentheses indicate

percentage of total voting population.)

Part III. Public Opinion (Polling)

What is Public Opinion?

• The distribution of individual preferences for, or evaluation of, a given issue, candidate, or institution within a specific population.

• Many independent companies, from news outlets to private polling firms do polling about voting preferences in elections, issues, and perceptions.

                                   

          

Support for the Death Penalty in the U.S.

                                   

          

What is Margin of Error (+/-)

• The margin of error is a statistic expression for the amount of random sampling error in a survey's results. It helps us gage the validity of a poll.

• This means that 95% of the time the “true number” is with the “+/- number”. (see graph next slide)

• A smaller sample size creates a larger margin of error and a larger size creates a smaller margin of error.

• A common misconception is that +/- means that the survey is accurate within 3 percentage points. 5% of the time the actual number will be outside the poll’s number.

How do companies get these numbers?

• Ask for individual preferences from a random sample of people (usually via phone)

• Proper random sampling that represents a good cross section of the population being studied

• Proper wording of questions that avoid biases language

• Thorough analysis of data, pollsters make predictions of the view of the public or specific demographics

• Note: Internet polls are not scientific and hold no validity

Examples of Historical Bad Polling

• In 1936, Franklin Delano Roosevelt had been President for one term. The magazine, The Literary Digest, predicted that Alfred Landon would beat FDR in that year's election by 57 to 43 percent (and a landslide in the Electoral College 370-161). The Digest mailed over 10 million questionnaires to names drawn from lists of automobile and telephone owners, and over 2.3 million people responded - a huge sample.

• Have you ever heard of President Alf Landon? Any guesses why they were so wrong!

• Context: The Great Depression had begun in 1929. The Literary Digest had made two fatal mistakes. Their list of names was biased in favor of those with enough money to buy cars and phones (who were more likely wealthy and against FDRs social programs), a much smaller portion of the population in the thirties than it is today. (and keep their magazine subscription, which would be the first thing I would drop)

• And the Digest had depended on voluntary response (not a random sample). FDR was the incumbent, and those who were unhappy with his administration were more likely to respond to the Digest survey. When a sample is biased, a large number of subjects cannot correct for the error.

• You need a completely random sample for an accurate poll!

George Gallup

Gallup• At the same time, a young man named George

Gallup sampled only 50,000 people and predicted that Roosevelt would win. Gallup's prediction was ridiculed as naive. After all, the Digest had predicted the winner in every election since 1916, and had based its predictions on the largest response to any poll in history. But Roosevelt won with 62% of the vote.

• Gallup used a completely random sample that represented a accurate cross section of the United States. To this day Gallup’s company is a leader in polls.

Dewey and Truman in 1948

• The Chicago Tribune (and other papers) in 1948 relied on polls of voter's preferences based on phone surveys which. In 1948, this produced a biased sample of affluent voters (who could afford telephones and also maintain a stable address), and who were thus more likely to support the Republican Dewey.

• Some pollsters had been so confident of Dewey's victory that they simply stopped polling voters weeks before the election and thus missed a last-minute surge of support for the Democrats.

Polling Changes• After 1948, pollsters would survey voters until

the day before the election, then they would also announce their results on television as polls closed and results came in.

• Since then television networks have agreed to not release results until after the polls closed on the west coast to avoid causing a last minute surge.

• After the election of 2000 (Bush vs. Gore) many polling agencies stopped using exit polls (due to inaccuracy) and instead rely on actual results, while others promised to not disclose results until after polls have closed.

Polling Dilemmas• Bradley Effect: Explanation for observed

discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes when a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other. Named for Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California gover nor's race.

• Lead or Momentum Effect: When a lead in the polls result in a greater increases of a candidates lead as people jump on the “bandwagon” or realize others support of candidates may be a reason to support them.

               

American Research Group, Inc.

Organizations that Poll in the US

Margin of Error (+/-)Why is there a margin of error?• Not everyone (polled) is of the “attentive public”.• This means not everyone pays attention to public

affairs and current events.• Not everyone (polled) votes in elections.• If results are within the margin of error they are

statistically insignificant.

What influences Public Opinion?

• Family and Upbringing• Amount of and Type of Schooling • Mass Media• A Person’s Employment• Demographics• The Economy