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2010 Argument & Research Kit Update p. Politics Disadvantage – Argument Summary ARGUMENT SUMMARY : DEBT CEILING POLITICS DISADVANTAGES Now tha t the midterm elections are over, politics disad vantages will focus on the government’s current agend a and the legi slation that ma y or may not pass. Instead of arguing about the way the American voter perceives the plan, and how that will affect the election, the argument will be about how members of Congress perceive the plan and how that will affect President Obama’s ability to pass items in his agenda. SUMMARY OF THE DEBT CEILING DISADVANTAGE: In the status quo, the President will be seeking approval of the extension of the debt ceiling sometime in the spring. He will need to have Republican support for that because now they control the House of Repr esenta tiv es. Currentl y, the re is eno ugh bipa rti sanshi p on bud get iss ues, as demonstrat ed by the recent tax cut compromise, to pass the debt ceiling extension. But the affirmative plan would be very controversial with the Republicans, who generally favor military presence, and this would poison the relationship between the President and the GOP, resulting in the defeat of the debt ceiling extension. Failure to approve the debt cei lin g inc rease would cause glo bal fin ancial panic and und ermine the worl d economy. UNIQUENESS: The uniqueness debate will center on the likelihood that the President will be able to get the debt cei li ng extensi on passe d in the status quo. The re is exc ell ent evidence that this will be difficult to accomplish, as no politician wants to be seen as approv ing more defici t spending by the gove rnment. On the other hand, most members of Congress know, deep down, that failing to extend the debt ceiling would be disastrous economically. LINK : The aff ir mative plans (Af ghanistan, Jap an, South Kor ea) would all be seen as wi thdr awal fr om th e wo rl d. Pr es id ent Ob ama wo ul d lo ok weak in th e eyes of conservative Republicans, who tend to support military deplo yme nts. Further, the military leadership would be opposed to withdrawing troop presence and this would generate more controversy around the plan. If the negative can win the argument that the plan creates controversy they would then say that this weakens the President, either by upset tin g bipartisan cooperation or by draining the Pr esident’s store of political strength (political “capital”). You can use some of the link evidence in the previous Politics DA file from August – the evide nce tha t tal ks about wha t the pub lic /Co ngress supports and doesn’t support regarding military presence. One interesting issue related to the link debate is the influence of the new Tea Party wi ng of the Rep ubl ica n Par ty. The re is a good deb ate abo ut whet her or not thes e members of Congress are different from traditional conservative Republicans in that they are more isolationist – meaning they don’t want to pay for American troops to be in other countries. 2010 Argument & Research Kit 1
