Population Analysis & Breeding and Transfer Plan Grey... · Population Analysis & Breeding and...

Population Analysis &

Breeding and Transfer Plan

Grey-winged Trumpeter (Psophia crepitans) AZA Species Survival Plan®

Red Program

AZA SSP Coordinator and Studbook Keeper Shawn Pedersen, Woodland Park Zoo ([email protected])

AZA Population Advisor Colleen Lynch, Population Management Center ([email protected])

29 JULY 2016

This Animal Program is a Red SSP and recommendations proposed are non-binding – Participation is voluntary. Dispositions to non-AZA institutions should comply with each institution's acquisition/disposition policy.

Grey-winged Trumpeter SSP

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Executive Summary Grey-winged Trumpeter (Psophia crepitans) Red Program

The Gruiformes Taxon Advisory Group has designated grey-winged trumpeters to be a managed population with a target size of 80 specimens (2014 RCP). The population currently qualifies for management as a Red SSP with 28 individuals distributed among 11 AZA institutions.

When gene diversity falls below 90% of that in the founding population, it is expected that reproduction will be increasingly compromised by, among other factors, lower hatch weights, smaller clutch sizes, and greater neonatal mortality. Gene diversity is currently 84%; GD is expected to be 0% at 100 years from present as population extinction is expected in less than 40 years.

Demography

Current size of population (N) - Total (Males, Females, Unknown) 28 (17.11.0 )

# animals excluded from management 0

Population size following exclusions 28

Target population size 80

Mean generation time (yrs) 7.99

Lambda - 5 year / Life table / used in projections 0.942 / 0.948 / 0.94

Genetics (Genetic statistics calculated from the analytical studbook) Current Potential

Founders 7 17

Founder genome equivalents (FGE) 3.14 21.07

Gene diversity (GD%) 84.08 97.63

Population mean kinship (MK) 0.1592

Mean inbreeding (F) 0

Percentage of pedigree known before assumptions and exclusions 72.7

Percentage of pedigree known after assumptions and exclusions 85

Effective population size/census size ratio (Ne / N) 0

Years To 90% Gene Diversity n/a

Years to 10% Loss of Gene Diversity 7

Gene Diversity at 100 Years From Present (%) Assuming λ = 0.94, Target size = 80 0

Special Concerns: Breeding success in this population is very low. The population has declined at an average rate of 6% per annum from 2002 to 2012 and by 48% in in 2012-2014. Since 2016 some increase in population size has occurred but this growth results from importation, with 7 imports and only 1 hatch occurring. Institutions receiving breeding recommendations are strongly encouraged to prioritize the successful propagation of this species. If current trends are not reversed AZA population extinction is expected in fewer than 40 years. As with SSP populations, pairings recommended for this population are prioritized to maintain or increase gene diversity through considerations of mean kinship, avoidance of inbreeding and differences in sire and dam mean kinships. In the interest of demographic stability some over-represented proven breeders and related pairs will receive breeding recommendations. Every female that can receive a breeding recommendation will be recommended to breed. Summary Actions: The Program recommends 0 transfers and all 12 females to breed. All paired birds should be maintained under conditions conducive to breeding. Pairs should be encouraged to engage in courtship, nesting and incubating behaviors. Low rate of pairing success presents a significant challenge to the maintenance of this population.



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Table of Contents

Executive Summary 1

I. Description of Population Status 3

Demography 3

Genetics 5

Management Strategy 6

II. Recommendations Summary Recommendations 7

CALDWELL, DALLAS WA, 9

HOUSTON, JACKSONVL, MINNESOTA, NYBRONX, PITTS CA, 10

RIOGRAND, SAN ANTON, SEATTLE, ST LOUIS 11 III. Appendices

A. Assumptions & Exclusions 12 B. Life Table 13 C. Ordered Mean Kinship 15 D. Summary of Data Exports 16 E. Survival Statistics 17 F. Reproductive Report 19 G. Definitions 22 H. Directory of Institutional Representatives 24

STUDBOOK KEEPER Shawn Pedersen

Woodland Park Zoo, (206) 548-2516, [email protected]

Report and Analyses prepared by: Colleen Lynch, Consulting Population Biologist, AZA Population Management Center, [email protected]

The planning meeting for the grey-winged trumpeter was held via email the week of June 19, 2016.

Cover art: Simon and Schuster’s encyclopedia of animals

This plan was prepared and distributed with the assistance of the AZA Population Management Center.

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]



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Description of Population Status Grey-winged Trumpeter (Psophia crepitans) Red Program

Introduction: The Gruiformes Taxon Advisory Group has designated grey-winged trumpeters to be a managed population with a target size of 80 specimens (2014 RCP). The population currently qualifies for management as a Red SSP. Genetic and demographic analyses of the population were performed in June 2016 resulting in the current Breeding and Transfer Plan. Analyses were performed on the analytical (XX) version of the North American Regional Grey-winged Trumpeter Studbook (current to 5/12/2016) using PopLink 2.4, PM2000 1.213, and PMX1. 2.20140424. The goal of these recommendations is to insure the genetic and demographic health of the population. Recommendations proposed in a Red SSP Plan are non-binding; participation is voluntary.

Managed Population: The current population is 28 distributed among 11 institutions. This represents an increase from 23 individuals in 2014. This increase is the result of importation rather than captive breeding.

Special Concerns: Breeding success in this population is very low. Since 2008, every male (the limiting sex in this population) in the population has been recommended to breed with the exception of two males paired with siblings (unrelated females were not available). The population has declined at an average rate of 6% per annum from 2002 to 2012 and by 48% in in 2012-2014 (Figure 1). Since 2016 some increase in population size has occurred but this growth results from importation, with 7 imports and only 1 hatch occurring in 2014 and no hatches since that time (Figure 2). Given current parameters, population extinction is expected in less than 30 years in the absence of continued importation (Figure 3).

Figure 1. Hatches in the population continue to decline while death rates remain consistent and imports maintain the population. Over the last 15 years the population has been import-dependent with deaths exceeding births and imports combined by an average of 1.5 animals per annum.

As with SSP populations, pairings recommended for this population are prioritized to maintain or increase gene diversity through considerations of mean kinship, avoidance of inbreeding and differences in sire and dam mean kinships. In the interest of demographic stability some over-represented proven breeders continue to receive breeding recommendation and some sibling pairs will receive breeding recommendations. As in 2008, 2010, 2012, and 2014, every animal that can receive a breeding recommendation (given sex-ratio biases) will be recommended to breed.

Demography: The grey-winged trumpeters were first exhibited in North America in 1905 but were held only sporadically until 1980; it was not until the mid 1980s that captive hatches occurred in any significant numbers Figure 2). The population’s failure to maintain consistent hatch rates over the past two decades is of great concern. It is unknown at this time whether the failure of this population to maintain its size is due to an inability to propagate the species or simply due to the species not being the focus of propagation efforts. Institutions receiving breeding recommendations are asked to make serious attempts to achieve successful reproduction; it is hoped that such efforts will result in consistent growth rates and the population will reverse its decline and begin to move toward the recommended target size and the large number of requests for additional specimens can be filled.



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Figure 2. Population census illustrates a fairly constant rate of wild importation and a declining captive born population.

Figure 3. Population projections predict that without further imports and/or increases in captive breeding, extinction will occur. Figure 4. Age structure in the population by sex and by breeding success. Only one living bird is a proven breeder. SB423 last produced a chick in 2014. The dam of this chick died in 2015.



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Demographic data for this population is lacking as a result of small population size combined with a short history of breeding in captivity. Captive trumpeter populations in general lack data regarding life span, reproductive span, and vital rates. Model data sets for similar species are also unavailable or limited. Lifespan may be greater than 30 years. The oldest living grey-winged trumpeter is currently 17 years old but historic records include animals as old as 30 years. Chick mortality is moderate with less than 34% of chicks failing to survive their first year. The age distribution (Figure 3) deviates from a stable one with several empty age classes and a disproportionate number of individuals in the middle age classes relative to younger ones. This distribution illustrates a decrease in population growth rates as importations have slowed, attrition of the aging wild caught specimens has increased, and captive propagation has not increased at a compensatory rate. The sex ratio is male biased (17.11). Reproduction has been recorded in known-aged animals from the ages of 1 to 15 years in males and 1 to 10 years in females; some animals of unknown age may have bred at older ages. Some reproduction in the earliest age classes may be an artifact of data entry conventions assuming wild caught birds to be one year of age at time of capture. Genetics: The population is descended from 7 founders, with 17 potential founders remaining in the living population (Figure 4); 7 of these potential founders are over the age of 16 years. Since 2012, four founder lines have been lost to attrition.

GENETICS calculated using the analytical studbook 2016 Potential 2014 2012 2010

Number of Founders 7 17 9 11 13

Founder Genome Equivalents 3.14 21.07 3.42 3.43 4.82

Gene Diversity (%) 84.08 97.63 85.37 85.43 89.62

Population Mean Kinship 0.1592 0.1463 0.1457 0.1038

Mean Inbreeding (F) 0 0 0 0

% Known Pedigree before assumptions/exclusions 72.7 80 81 72

% Known Pedigree after assumptions/exclusions 85 88.3 88 15

Ne/N 0 0 0.0746 0.09

Years To 90% Gene Diversity n/a n/a n/a n/a

Years To 10% Gene Diversity loss 7 0 3 6

Gene Diversity at 100 Years From Present (%) 0 0 0 29

Gene diversity (GD) in the population (84%) is low relative to the average SSP (93%); potential gene diversity is very high at 97%. Long-term projections indicate that given current population parameters GD will decrease rapidly as the population declines. GD is projected to be 0% in 100 years as population extinction is anticipated in less than 30 years without continued importation and improved captive propagation.

Figure 4 Founder representation in the population illustrating the large number of potential founders...



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The best strategy to increase gene diversity retention in grey-winged trumpeters is increasing the population effective size by recruiting a larger proportion of the population as breeders. Currently Ne/N in this population is 0.00, much lower than values close to 0.3 typically seen in monogamous breeders. Increasing the proportion of breeders in the population to 0.2 and creating moderate population growth (lambda = 1.01), even in the absence of further potential founder recruitment, increases projected GD at 100 years to 25%. Given population performance in the last decade, however, these projections are unlikely to become a reality without significant improvements in husbandry and reproduction combined with an influx of new breeding aged animals into the population. Management Strategy: Projections indicate that five hatches are required in the coming year to maintain the current population size. Parent rearing is considered to be an important factor in the future breeding success of grey-winged trumpeters. Double-clutching is encouraged in cases where multiple clutches can be obtained without excluding parent rearing. In the event that hand-rearing is necessitated, ghost, isolation, or puppet rearing is recommended. Recommended pairings include some over-represented individuals and related pairs in the interest of demographic stability. The only animals not recommended to breed are females for which males are unavailable due to the sex ratio bias.

1. Recommend all 12 females to breed in the coming year. Double clutches should be attempted where possible without sacrificing parent rearing.

2. Recommend 0 transfers to create breeding pairs.

3. Recommend that all paired birds be maintained under conditions conducive to breeding. Pairs should

be encouraged to engage in courtship, nesting and incubating behaviors. Low rates of pairing success present a significant challenge to the maintenance of this population. Institutions housing birds in flocks are encouraged to report behavioral pairings when possible.



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Summary of Breeding and Transfer Recommendations

ID Location Local ID Sex Age Disposition Location Breeding With Notes

383 CALDWELL 107624 F 16 HOLD CALDWELL BREED WITH

427

427 CALDWELL 107623 M 10 HOLD CALDWELL BREED WITH

383

447 DALLAS WA 9A077 F 9 HOLD DALLAS WA BREED WITH

470 Appears to be mal-imprinted


472

470 DALLAS WA 13A054 M 3 HOLD DALLAS WA BREED WITH

447


475


469


502


471

502 DALLAS WA F HOLD DALLAS WA BREED WITH

473 This animal was reported after analysis and is not included in pop’n stats

430 HOUSTON 24320 M 10 HOLD HOUSTON BREED WITH

486

481 HOUSTON 30551 F 0 HOLD HOUSTON BREED WITH

485

485 HOUSTON 30549 M 0 HOLD HOUSTON BREED WITH

481

486 HOUSTON 30550 F 0 HOLD HOUSTON BREED WITH

430

405 JACKSONVL 604401 M 12 HOLD JACKSONVL BREED WITH

411

411 JACKSONVL 605378 F 12 HOLD JACKSONVL BREED WITH

405

500 MINNESOTA 14223 M 2 HOLD MINNESOTA BREED WITH

501

501 MINNESOTA 14224 F 2 HOLD MINNESOTA BREED WITH

500

423 NY BRONX B12192 M 11 HOLD NY BRONX DO NOT BREED

466 NY BRONX B14118 M 2 HOLD NY BRONX DO NOT BREED

370 PITTS CA 5113 F 0 HOLD PITTS CA BREED WITH

442

442 PITTS CA 7930 M 7 HOLD PITTS CA BREED WITH

370

432 RIO GRAND B10039 F 9 HOLD RIO GRAND BREED WITH

446

446 RIO GRAND B14015 M 6 HOLD RIO GRAND BREED WITH

432



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ID Location Local ID Sex Age Disposition Location Breeding With Notes

434 SAN ANTON U15001 M 8 HOLD SAN ANTON DO NOT BREED

346 SEATTLE 970075 M 0 HOLD SEATTLE DO NOT BREED

371 SEATTLE 203663 M 17 HOLD SEATTLE DO NOT BREED

467 ST LOUIS 117643 M 0 HOLD ST LOUIS BREED WITH

468

468 ST LOUIS 117644 F 0 HOLD ST LOUIS BREED WITH

467



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Recommendations by Institution

CALDWELL Caldwell Zoo Tyler, TX ID Local ID Sex Age Disposition Location Breeding With Notes 383 107624 F 16 HOLD CALDWELL BREED WITH 427 427 107623 M 10 HOLD CALDWELL BREED WITH 383 DALLAS WA Dallas World Aquarium Dallas, TX ID Local

ID Sex Age Disposition Location Breeding With Notes

447 9A077 F 9 HOLD DALLAS WA

BREED WITH

470 Appears to be mal-imprinted


BREED WITH

472

470 13A054 M 3 HOLD DALLAS WA

BREED WITH

447


BREED WITH

475


BREED WITH

469


BREED WITH

502


BREED WITH

471

502 F HOLD DALLAS WA

BREED WITH

473 This animal was reported after analysis and is not included in pop’n stats



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HOUSTON Houston Zoo, Inc. Houston, TX ID Local ID Sex Age Disposition Location Breeding With Notes 430 24320 M 10 HOLD HOUSTON BREED WITH 486 481 30551 F 0 HOLD HOUSTON BREED WITH 485 485 30549 M 0 HOLD HOUSTON BREED WITH 481 486 30550 F 0 HOLD HOUSTON BREED WITH 430 JACKSONVL Jacksonville Zoo and Gardens Jacksonville, FL ID Local ID Sex Age Disposition Location Breeding With Notes 405 604401 M 12 HOLD JACKSONVL BREED WITH 411 411 605378 F 12 HOLD JACKSONVL BREED WITH 405 MINNESOTA Minnesota Zoological Garden Apple Valley, MN ID Local ID Sex Age Disposition Location Breeding With Notes 500 14223 M 2 HOLD MINNESOTA BREED WITH 501 501 14224 F 2 HOLD MINNESOTA BREED WITH 500 NY BRONX Bronx Zoo/Wildlife Conservation Society Bronx, NY ID Local ID Sex Age Disposition Location Breeding With Notes 423 B12192 M 11 HOLD NY BRONX DO NOT BREED 466 B14118 M 2 HOLD NY BRONX DO NOT BREED PITTS CA National Aviary in Pittsburgh Pittsburgh, PA ID Local ID Sex Age Disposition Location Breeding With Notes 370 5113 F 0 HOLD PITTS CA BREED WITH 442 442 7930 M 7 HOLD PITTS CA BREED WITH 370



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RIO GRAND Albuquerque Biological Park Albuquerque, NM ID Local ID Sex Age Disposition Location Breeding With Notes 432 B10039 F 9 HOLD RIO GRAND BREED WITH 446 446 B14015 M 6 HOLD RIO GRAND BREED WITH 432 SAN ANTON San Antonio Zoological Gardens & Aquarium San Antonio, TX ID Local ID Sex Age Disposition Location Breeding With Notes 434 U15001 M 8 HOLD SAN ANTON DO NOT BREED SEATTLE Woodland Park Zoo Seattle, WA ID Local ID Sex Age Disposition Location Breeding With Notes 346 970075 M 0 HOLD SEATTLE DO NOT BREED 371 203663 M 17 HOLD SEATTLE DO NOT BREED ST LOUIS Saint Louis Zoological Park St. Louis, MO ID Local ID Sex Age Disposition Location Breeding With Notes 467 117643 M 0 HOLD ST LOUIS BREED WITH 468 468 117644 F 0 HOLD ST LOUIS BREED WITH 467



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Appendix A Assumptions & Exclusions

SPECIMENS WITH UNKNOWN PARENTAGE

Studboo

k ID

Current

Status Sire Dam

XX

SIRE

XX

DAM Birth Date First Location Second Location Current Location

# AZA

Living

Descen

dants

% AZA

Living

Population

# Total

Living

Descen

dants

Living

Descen

dants'

Studbo

ok ID

61 Dead UNK UNK

WILD

WILD 1/1/1983 GUYANAZOO CHASE B FORTWORTH 7 16.28% 7

351,

413,

430,

411,

412,

408,

414

192 Dead UNK 33

34

33 11/16/1988 SANDIEGOZ SEATTLE SEATTLE 7 16.28% 7

351,

413,

430,

411,

412,

408,

414

144 Living UNK UNK 34 33 11/1/1987 UNKNOWN CHISHOLM SEDGWICK 1 2.33% 1 144

149 Living UNK UNK 34 33 1/12/1988 UNKNOWN CHISHOLM BROWNSVIL 1 2.33% 1 149

196 Living UNK UNK 34 33 11/25/1988 UNKNOWN CHISHOLM TORONTO 1 2.33% 1 196

206 Living UNK 33 34 33 3/31/1989 SANDIEGOZ PROVIDNCE MILWAUKEE 1 2.33% 1 206

312 Living UNK UNK WILD WILD 10/13/1993 UNKNOWN CYPRESS BUSCH TAM 1 2.33% 1 312

382 Living UNK UNK WILD WILD 1/1/2000 UNKNOWN MOHILEF D LOSANGELE 1 2.33% 1 382

383 Living UNK UNK WILD WILD 1/1/2000 UNKNOWN MOHILEF D LOSANGELE 1 2.33% 1 383

391 Living UNK UNK WILD WILD 3/8/2001 UNKNOWN FALLBROOK RIO GRAND 1 2.33% 1 391

393 Living UNK UNK -- -- 6/1/2001 UNKNOWN QUEBEC TORONTO 1 2.33% 1 393

146 Living UNK 33 34 33 11/2/1987 SANDIEGOZ CHISHOLM WINNIPEG 0 0% 1 146

No birds were excluded from the breeding population.



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Appendix B Life Tables

Males Qx = mortality; Px = survival; Lx = cumulative survivorship; Mx = fecundity; Risk = sample size

Age Qx Px lx Mx Risk (Qx) Risk (Mx)

0 0.36 0.64 1 0.03 76.8 51.3

1 0.06 0.94 0.64 0.03 44.7 42.9

2 0.12 0.88 0.602 0.05 50.5 47

3 0.14 0.86 0.529 0.21 48.1 44.5

4 0.21 0.79 0.455 0.08 40.7 35.4

5 0.09 0.91 0.36 0.2 33 31.9

6 0 1 0.327 0.07 30.2 30.2

7 0.15 0.85 0.327 0.2 33 29

8 0.05 0.95 0.278 0.16 28.2 27.1

9 0.21 0.79 0.264 0.06 28.9 24.7

10 0.1 0.9 0.209 0.36 20.8 19.8

11 0.06 0.94 0.188 0.79 18 17.1

12 0.19 0.81 0.177 0.95 16.1 15.1

13 0.31 0.69 0.143 0.54 13.1 10.7

14 0.33 0.67 0.099 0.21 9 6.8

15 0.33 0.67 0.066 0.17 6 4.2

16 0.25 0.75 0.044 0 4 3.3

17 0 1 0.033 0 2.5 2.5

18 0 1 0.033 0 2 2

19 0 1 0.033 0 2 2

20 0 1 0.033 0 2 2

21 0 1 0.033 0 2 2

22 0 1 0.033 0 2 2

23 0 1 0.033 0 2 2

24 0 1 0.033 0 2 2

25 0.5 0.5 0.033 0 2 1.1

26 0 1 0.017 0 1 1

27 1 0 0.017 0 1 0.1

28 1 0 0 0 0 0

r = -0.0157 lambda = 0.9844 T = 9.09 N = 17 N(at 20 yrs) = 12.42



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Females Qx = mortality; Px = survival; Lx = cumulative survivorship; Mx = fecundity; Risk = sample size

Age Qx Px lx Mx Risk (Qx) Risk (Mx)

0 0.32 0.68 1 0 77.3 53.7

1 0.17 0.83 0.68 0 54.6 47.2

2 0.15 0.85 0.564 0 61.3 56.2

3 0.15 0.85 0.48 0.28 63.4 57.1

4 0.24 0.76 0.408 0.12 52.9 44.1

5 0.07 0.93 0.31 0.24 40.3 39.6

6 0.18 0.82 0.288 0.39 39.7 34.4

7 0.12 0.88 0.236 0.65 34.2 30.6

8 0.07 0.93 0.208 0.29 33.5 32

9 0.16 0.84 0.193 0.18 30.7 29.1

10 0.08 0.92 0.162 0.06 25 24.2

11 0.3 0.7 0.149 0 23 20.7

12 0.2 0.8 0.105 0 15 13.8

13 0.08 0.92 0.084 0 12 11.9

14 0.27 0.73 0.077 0 11 9.6

15 0 1 0.056 0 9 9

16 0.12 0.88 0.056 0 8.5 7.7

17 0 1 0.049 0 7 7

18 0.14 0.86 0.049 0 7 6.2

19 0 1 0.043 0 7 7

20 0.43 0.57 0.043 0 7 5.3

21 0 1 0.024 0 5 5

22 0.8 0.2 0.024 0 5 2.7

23 0 1 0.005 0 1 1

24 0 1 0.005 0 0.2 0.2

25 1 0 0.005 0 0 0

26 1 0 0 0 0 0

r = -0.0157 lambda = 0.9137 T = 6.9 N = 11 N(at 20 yrs) = 1.81



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Appendix C Ordered Mean Kinships

Note: This list is based on a studbook current to the date of analysis. Values are subject to change with any hatch, death, import, export, inclusion, or exclusion. Unknown sex individuals appear on both the male and female side of the mean kinship list. The population mean is indicated by the solid line.

Males Females SB# MK %Known Age Location SB# MK %Known Age Location

371 0.000 100.0 17 SEATTLE 370 0.000 100.0 0 PITTS CA

467 0.000 100.0 0 ST LOUIS 383 0.000 100.0 16 CALDWELL 470 0.000 100.0 3 DALLAS WA 447 0.000 100.0 9 DALLAS WA

471 0.000 100.0 3 DALLAS WA 468 0.000 100.0 0 ST LOUIS

472 0.000 100.0 3 DALLAS WA 469 0.000 100.0 4 DALLAS WA 473 0.000 100.0 3 DALLAS WA 475 0.000 100.0 3 DALLAS WA

485 0.000 100.0 0 HOUSTON 481 0.000 100.0 0 HOUSTON

500 0.000 100.0 2 MINNESOTA 486 0.000 100.0 0 HOUSTON

430 0.080 87.5 10 HOUSTON 501 0.000 100.0 2 MINNESOTA

442 0.103 50.0 7 PITTS CA 411 0.080 87.5 12 JACKSONVL

446 0.103 50.0 6 RIO GRAND 432 0.191 100.0 9 RIO GRAND 346 0.162 100.0 0 SEATTLE

466 0.186 75.0 2 NY BRONX

405 0.191 100.0 12 JACKSONVL 427 0.191 100.0 10 CALDWELL

434 0.191 100.0 8 SAN ANTON

423 0.206 100.0 11 NY BRONX



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Appendix D Summary of Data Exports

Population Management 2000

Project: GWTr16xx

Report compiled under Population Management 2000, version 1.213

2:00:17 PM, 6/19/2016

Date to be used for calculations: 6/19/2016

Demographic data from: C:\Users\clynch\Documents\PopLink\PopLink Databases\GWTr16\mXXGWTr16.prn and

C:\Users\clynch\Documents\PopLink\PopLink Databases\GWTr16\fXXGWTr16.prn

Genetic data from: C:\Users\clynch\Documents\PopLink\PopLink Databases\GWTr16\XXGWTr16.ped

Studbook information:

Data exported on: 6/19/2016

Data compiled by: Shawn Pedersen

Contact info: Shawn Pedersen [email protected]

Data current thru: 5/12/2016

Scope of data:

Demographic filter conditions:

Association = AZA.FED During 1/1/1990 - 6/19/2016 Status = Living

Genetic filter conditions:

Association = AZA.FED

As of 6/19/2016

Status = Living

PMx Project: GWTr16xx Created: 2016-06-19 by PMx version 1.2.20140424 File: C:\PMxProjects\GWTr16xx.pmxproj Primary data file Data File Name: XXGWTr16.ped Common Name: Grey-winged Trumpeter Scientific Name: Psophia crepitans Data Source: PopLink Studbook Name: GWTr16 Exported On: 2016-06-19 Software version: PopLink 2.4 Current through: 2016-05-12 Compiled by: Shawn Pedersen Scope: Dates: 2016-06-19 Locations: Association: AZA.FED Other Filters: Status = Living User: c Locations data file Data File Name: location.txt Demographic input files MPrn file: mXXGWTr16.prn FPrn file: fXXGWTr16.prn Census1 file: Exchcens.txt Male LifeTable filter: *Common Name: Grey-winged Trumpeter

*Scientific Name: Psophia crepitans *Data Source: PopLink *Studbook Name: GWTr16 *Exported On: 2016-06-19 *Software version: PopLink 2.4 *Current through: 2016-05-12 *Compiled by: Shawn Pedersen *Scope: *Dates: 1990-01-01 to 2016-06-19 *Locations: *Association: AZA.FED *Other Filters: Status = Living *User: c Female LifeTable filter: *Common Name: Grey-winged Trumpeter *Scientific Name: Psophia crepitans *Data Source: PopLink *Studbook Name: GWTr16 *Exported On: 2016-06-19 *Software version: PopLink 2.4 *Current through: 2016-05-12 *Compiled by: Shawn Pedersen *Scope: *Dates: 1990-01-01 to 2016-06-19 *Locations: *Association: AZA.FED *Other Filters: Status = Living *User: c



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Appendix E Survival Statistics

Grey-winged Trumpeter Studbook Psophia crepitans

Studbook data current as of 5/12/2016 Compiled by

Shawn Pedersen [email protected]

PopLink Studbook filename: GWTr16 + Overlay14 PopLink User Who Exported Report: c

Date of Export: 6/19/2016 Data Filtered by: Association = AZA.FED AND StartDate = 1/1/1990 AND EndDate = 6/19/2016

PopLink Version: 2.4 REPORT OVERVIEW:

Based on this analysis, if a Grey-winged Trumpeter survives to its first birthday, its median life expectancy is 5.0 years. Please see the body of the report for more details.

BACKGROUND ON ANALYSES: These analyses were conducted using animals that lived during the period 1 January 1990 to 19 June 2016 at institutions within AZA. The analyses mainly focus on survival statistics from 1 year (e.g. excluding any individuals that did not survive past their first birthday). These statistics most accurately reflect typical survival for animals which can be seen on exhibit in zoos and aquariums. This report summarizes survival records of individuals housed at zoological facilities for a specific geographic range and time period; these records trace an individual's history from birth or entry into the population to death, exit out of the population, or the end of the time period. As such, this history only reflects standard practices - including management, husbandry, and acquisition/disposition practices - for the specified time period and geographic range. Thus, the report contents should be viewed with some caution as they may not fully reflect current and newly emerging zoo and aquarium management techniques or practices. For example, if the population has not been maintained in zoos and aquariums long enough to have many adults living into old age, median life expectancy will likely be an underestimate until more data accrue in older age classes. Thus, users of these reports should recognize that the results produced will likely vary over time or depending on the subset of data selected. Although for many species, including humans, survival statistics often differ for males and females, for these analyses male and female statistics were not statistically different1; these results therefore include pooled data from males, females, and unknown sex individuals. SUMMARY OF ANALYSES: The dataset used for analysis includes partial or full lifespans of 182 individuals, 144 (79.1%) of which had died by 19 June 2016. If a Grey-winged Trumpeter survives to its first birthday, its median life expectancy2 is 5.0 years of age. Given the quality of the data - how many animals are in the database and how many have died - there is a 95% chance that the true median falls between 4.2 and 6.9 years of age (i.e., these are the 95% confidence limits). Only 25% of Grey-winged Trumpeter can be expected to survive to be 10.8 years or older. First-year (infant) survival3 for Grey-winged Trumpeter is 66%. The year after birth/hatching is a period of relatively low survival for many species and life histories.

The maximum longevity4 observed for Grey-winged Trumpeter is 27.1 years; this longevity record is based on an individual which was DEAD as of the analysis end date (studbook number 34, sex = Male, origin = Wild Hatch, birth date estimate = Year).5



18

The correct interpretation of these statistics is that, if it survives the first year of life, the 'typical' Grey-winged Trumpeter will live 5.0 years; that half of all Grey-winged Trumpeter can be expected to die before they reach 5.0 and half will live longer than 5.0; that only 25% of all Grey-winged Trumpeter can be expected to live 10.8 years; and that it is rare but possible for Grey-winged Trumpeter to live 27.1 years. The median life expectancy, confidence interval, first-year survival, and maximum longevity may change as more data are accumulated, the population's age structure changes, or management practices improve. While both median life expectancy and maximum longevity are discussed in this report, it is more appropriate to rely on median life expectancy to place the age of any one individual in context. To put these statistics in perspective, median life expectancy from age one for people in the United States is 77.5 years and the maximum longevity (documented worldwide) is 122 years6. Therefore, if a person lived to be 85 years old, the appropriate context is that they lived well beyond the median life expectancy (77.5), not that they fell short of the maximum longevity (122). DATA QUALITY The PopLink Survival Tool uses five data quality measures to determine whether data are robust enough to make reliable estimates of key survival parameters. This population passed all of the following data quality tests:

1. Can the median life expectancy be calculated? PASS 2. Is the sample size (number of individuals at risk) greater than 20 individuals at the median? PASS 3. Is the 95% Confidence Interval (CI) bounded? PASS 4. Is the sample size in the first age class of analysis (e.g. the first day of analysis) greater than 30 individuals? PASS 5. Is the length of the 95% CI < 33% of the maximum longevity? PASS

PopLink data validation has never been run; if errors are present in this studbook, they may affect the data in this analysis.

1 Statistical significance was determined by comparing 84% confidence intervals around median life expectancy for males and females, with 7 unknown sex individuals proportionally incorporated into the analysis. For this population, overlapping confidence intervals indicated that data could be pooled. See the PopLink manual for more details. 2 The statistics analyzed for this report (median life expectancy, 95% confidence limits, and age to which 25% of individuals survive) exclude any individuals who did not survive to their first birthday; these individuals are excluded because this Report is focused on providing median survival estimates for the typical individual that survives the vulnerable infant stage. In other words, this report answers the question, 'how long is this species expected to live once it has reached its first birthday?' For this studbook, 53 individuals died before their first birthday and were excluded from these analyses. For all animals that survive to their first birthday, 50% will die before the median life expectancy in this report and 50% die after. Note that the median life expectancy obtained from population management software (PM2000, PMx, ZooRisk) or from life tables in Breeding and Transfer Plans (e.g. where Lx = 0.5) will be lower because it includes these individuals that did not survive to their first birthday in order to project the correct number of births needed. See the PopLink manual for more details. 3For reference, first-year survival is provided. For this studbook and the selected demographic window, 53 individuals did not survive to their first birthday and were excluded from the estimates provided above (median life expectancy, 95% confidence limits, and age to which 25% of individuals survive). 4 Maximum longevity is the age of the oldest known individual for this species, living or dead. It is not necessarily the biological maximum age, but only reflects the individuals included in the dataset. 5 Censored individuals are individuals whose deaths have not been observed as of the end of the analysis window, including individuals who 1) are still alive as of the end date, 2) exited the geographic window before the end date (through transfer or release), or 3) were lost-to-follow up before the end date. 6 Median life expectancy for people is estimated from: Xu, Jiaquan, Kochanek KD, Murphy SL, and Tejada-Vera B. 2007. Deaths: Final Data for 2007. National vital statistics reports; vol 58 no 19. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. Jeanne Calment of France was the oldest documented and fully validated human and died at 122 years and 164 days; from: http://www.grg.org/Adams/Tables.htm. Accessed August 9, 2007.



19

Appendix F Reproductive Report

Grey-winged Trumpeter Studbook Psophia crepitans

Studbook data current as of 5/12/2016

Compiled by Shawn Pedersen [email protected]

PopLink Studbook filename: GWTr16 + Overlay14

PopLink User Who Exported Report: c Date of Export: 6/19/2016

PopLink Version: 2.4

Species Type: Egg Laying Incubation Period: 28 Days Maximum Hatch Date Range For Clutch Mates: 8 Days DAM INFORMATION 18 reported dams, with 99.112.75 (286) offspring (not including 76 offspring of UNK/MULT dams) Median size: 2 Mean size: 1.981

Clutch Size Frequency Percentage

1 63 40.13

2 51 32.48

3 26 16.56

4 17 10.83

Total 157 100.00

Hatch Seasonality First of clutch must have a hatch date estimate of None, Day, or Month to be counted.

Month Number of Clutches Percentage

January 3 1.91

February 4 2.55

March 12 7.64

April 15 9.55

May 28 17.83

June 25 15.92

July 25 15.92

August 23 14.65

September 10 6.37

October 4 2.55

November 6 3.82

December 2 1.27

Total 157 99.98

Dam Age at First Reproduction Median age: 4.887 Mean age: 5.73



20

10 Youngest Dams at First Reproduction:

Studbook ID Age At Hatch Dam's Hatch Date Estimate First Offspring's ID First Offspring's Hatch Date First Offspring's Estimate

322 3.425 8/1/1994 Month 353 1/3/1998 None

59 3.6 1/1/1983 Year 116 8/8/1986 None

49 4.312 1/1/1982 Year 112 4/25/1986 None

33 4.361 1/1/1981 Year 94 5/13/1985 None

314 4.449 1/1/1994 Year 364 6/14/1998 None

441 5.325 3/9/2009 None 466 7/6/2014 None

393 6.653 6/1/2001 Month 433 1/26/2008 None

351 6.708 8/25/1997 None 408 5/10/2004 None

138 8.838 8/21/1987 None 340 6/22/1996 None

63 9.624 1/1/1983 Year 283 8/16/1992 None

10 Oldest Dams at First Reproduction:

Studbook ID Age At Hatch Dam's Hatch Date Estimate First Offspring's ID First Offspring's Hatch Date First Offspring's Estimate

63 9.624 1/1/1983 Year 283 8/16/1992 None

138 8.838 8/21/1987 None 340 6/22/1996 None

351 6.708 8/25/1997 None 408 5/10/2004 None

393 6.653 6/1/2001 Month 433 1/26/2008 None

441 5.325 3/9/2009 None 466 7/6/2014 None

314 4.449 1/1/1994 Year 364 6/14/1998 None

33 4.361 1/1/1981 Year 94 5/13/1985 None

49 4.312 1/1/1982 Year 112 4/25/1986 None

59 3.6 1/1/1983 Year 116 8/8/1986 None

322 3.425 8/1/1994 Month 353 1/3/1998 None

Dam Age for All Reproduction Median age: 7.013 Mean age: 6.741 10 Oldest Dams to Have Reproduced

Studbook ID Age At Hatch Dam's Hatch Date Estimate Offspring's ID Offspring's Hatch Date Offspring's Estimate

138 10.012 8/21/1987 None 351 8/25/1997 None

49 9.643 1/1/1982 Year 255 8/24/1991 None

63 9.624 1/1/1983 Year 283 8/16/1992 None

49 9.224 1/1/1982 Year 242 3/24/1991 None

351 8.939 8/25/1997 None 430 8/3/2006 None

393 8.925 6/1/2001 Month 446 5/5/2010 None

138 8.838 8/21/1987 None 340 6/22/1996 None

49 8.758 1/1/1982 Year 241 10/5/1990 None

49 8.695 1/1/1982 Year 240 9/12/1990 None

33 8.638 1/1/1981 Year 219 8/22/1989 None



21

SIRE INFORMATION 17 reported sires, with 81.78.72 (231) offspring (All ages are at dam conception) Sire Age at First Reproduction Median age: 4.433 Mean age: 5.489 10 Youngest Sires at First Reproduction:

Studbook ID

Age At Estimated Conception

Sire's Hatch Date

Estimate First Offspring's ID

First Offspring's Hatch Date

First Offspring's Estimate

257 0.884 9/3/1991 None 284 8/19/1992 None

192 1.744 11/16/1988 None 240 9/12/1990 None

321 3.348 8/1/1994 Month 353 1/3/1998 None

54 3.524 1/1/1983 Year 116 8/8/1986 None

315 4.372 1/1/1994 Year 364 6/14/1998 None

61 4.433 1/1/1983 Year 130 7/6/1987 None

110 5.194 4/5/1986 None 249 7/13/1991 None

34 6.757 1/1/1981 Year 146 11/2/1987 None

423 8.693 9/28/2005 None 466 7/6/2014 None

35 9.602 1/1/1981 Year 238 9/6/1990 None

10 Oldest Sires at First Reproduction:

Studbook ID

Age At Estimated Conception

Sire's Hatch Date

Estimate First Offspring's ID

First Offspring's Hatch Date

First Offspring's Estimate

338 11.828 3/1/1996 Month 433 1/26/2008 None

35 9.602 1/1/1981 Year 238 9/6/1990 None

423 8.693 9/28/2005 None 466 7/6/2014 None

34 6.757 1/1/1981 Year 146 11/2/1987 None

110 5.194 4/5/1986 None 249 7/13/1991 None

61 4.433 1/1/1983 Year 130 7/6/1987 None

315 4.372 1/1/1994 Year 364 6/14/1998 None

54 3.524 1/1/1983 Year 116 8/8/1986 None

321 3.348 8/1/1994 Month 353 1/3/1998 None

192 1.744 11/16/1988 None 240 9/12/1990 None

Sire Age for All Reproduction Median age: 7.797 Mean age: 8.044 10 Oldest Sires to Have Reproduced

Studbook ID Age At Estimated Conception Sire's Hatch Date Estimate Offspring's ID Offspring's Hatch Date Offspring's Estimate

34 15.283 1/1/1981 Year 339 5/12/1996 None

34 14.519 1/1/1981 Year 335 8/7/1995 None

338 14.1 3/1/1996 Month 446 5/5/2010 None

34 13.405 1/1/1981 Year 320 6/26/1994 None

34 13.355 1/1/1981 Year 319 6/8/1994 None

34 13.251 1/1/1981 Year 318 5/1/1994 None

34 13.21 1/1/1981 Year 317 4/16/1994 None

338 13.046 3/1/1996 Month 443 4/15/2009 None

338 13.005 3/1/1996 Month 442 3/31/2009 None

338 12.945 3/1/1996 Month 441 3/9/2009 None



22

Appendix G Definitions

Management Terms Green Species Survival Plan® (Green SSP) Program – A Green SSP Program has a population size of 50 or more animals and is projected to retain 90% gene diversity for a minimum of 100 years or 10 generations. Green SSP Programs are subject to AZA’s Full Participation and Non–Member Participation Policies.

Yellow Species Survival Plan® (Yellow SSP) Program – A Yellow SSP Program has a population size of 50 or more animals but cannot retain 90% gene diversity for 100 years or 10 generations. Yellow SSP participation by AZA institutions is voluntary. Red Species Survival Plan® (Red SSP) Program – A Red SSP has a population size of greater than 20 but fewer than 50 animals, at least three AZA member institutions, and a published studbook. Animal Programs that manage species designated as Extinct in the Wild, Critically Endangered, or Endangered (IUCN) do not need to meet minimum population size and number of participating institution criteria to be designated as an SSP Program. Red Program participation by AZA institutions is voluntary.

Full Participation – AZA policy stating that all AZA accredited institutions and certified related facilities having a Green SSP animal in their collection are required to participate in the collaborative SSP planning process (e.g., provide relevant animal data to the AZA Studbook Keeper, assign an Institutional Representative who will communicate institutional wants and needs to the SSP Coordinator and comment on the draft plan during the 30-day review period, and abide by the recommendations agreed upon in the final plan).

For more information on AZA policies, see http://www.aza.org/board-policies/.

Demographic Terms

Age Distribution – A two-way classification showing the numbers or percentages of individuals in various age and sex classes.

Ex, Life Expectancy – Average years of further life for an animal in age class x.

Lambda () or Population Growth Rate – The proportional change in population size from one year to the next. Lambda can be based

on life-table calculations (the expected lambda) or from observed changes in population size from year to year. A lambda of 1.11 means

an 11% per year increase; lambda of .97 means a 3% decline in size per year.

lx, Age-Specific Survivorship – The probability that a new individual (e.g., age 0) is alive at the beginning of age x. Alternatively, the

proportion of individuals which survive from birth to the beginning of a specific age class.

Mx, Fecundity – The average number of same-sexed young born to animals in that age class. Because SPARKS is typically using

relatively small sample sizes, SPARKS calculates Mx as 1/2 the average number of young born to animals in that age class. This

provides a somewhat less "noisy" estimate of Mx, though it does not allow for unusual sex ratios. The fecundity rates provide

information on the age of first, last, and maximum reproduction.

Px, Age-Specific Survival – The probability that an individual of age x survives one-time period; is conditional on an individual being

alive at the beginning of the time period. Alternatively, the proportion of individuals which survive from the beginning of one age class

to the next.

Qx, Mortality – Probability that an individual of age x dies during time period. Qx = 1-Px

Risk (Qx or Mx) – The number of individuals that have lived during an age class. The number at risk is used to calculate Mx and Qx by

dividing the number of births and deaths that occurred during an age class by the number of animals at risk of dying and reproducing

during that age class.

The proportion of individuals that die during an age class. It is calculated from the number of animals that die during an age class

divided by the number of animals that were alive at the beginning of the age class (i.e.-"at risk").

Vx, Reproductive Value – The expected number of offspring produced this year and in future years by an animal of age x.

http://www.aza.org/board-policies/



23

Genetic Terms Allele Retention – The probability that a gene present in a founder individual exists in the living, descendant population.

Current Gene Diversity (GD) -- The proportional gene diversity (as a proportion of the source population) is the probability that two

alleles from the same locus sampled at random from the population will not be identical by descent. Gene diversity is calculated from

allele frequencies, and is the heterozygosity expected in progeny produced by random mating, and if the population were in Hardy-

Weinberg equilibrium.

Effective Population Size (Inbreeding Ne) -- The size of a randomly mating population of constant size with equal sex ratio and a

Poisson distribution of family sizes that would (a) result in the same mean rate of inbreeding as that observed in the population, or (b)

would result in the same rate of random change in gene frequencies (genetic drift) as observed in the population. These two definitions

are identical only if the population is demographically stable (because the rate of inbreeding depends on the distribution of alleles in the

parental generation, whereas the rate of gene frequency drift is measured in the current generation).

FOKE, First Order Kin Equivalents – The number of first-order kin (siblings or offspring) that would contain the number of copies of

an individual’s alleles (identical by descent) as are present in the captive-born population. Thus an offspring or sib contributes 1 to

FOKE; each grand-offspring contributes 1/2 to FOKE; each cousin contributes 1/4 to FOKE. FOKE = 4*N*MK, in which N is the

number of living animals in the captive population.

Founder – An individual obtained from a source population (often the wild) that has no known relationship to any individuals in the

derived population (except for its own descendants).

Founder Contribution -- Number of copies of a founder's genome that are present in the living descendants. Each offspring contributes

0.5, each grand-offspring contributes 0.25, etc.

Founder Genome Equivalents (FGE) – The number wild-caught individuals (founders) that would produce the same amount of gene

diversity as does the population under study. The gene diversity of a population is 1 - 1 / (2 * FGE).

Founder Genome Surviving – The sum of allelic retentions of the individual founders (i.e., the product of the mean allelic retention and

the number of founders).

Founder Representation -- Proportion of the genes in the living, descendant population that are derived from that founder. I.e.,

proportional Founder Contribution.

GU, Genome Uniqueness – Probability that an allele sampled at random from an individual is not present, identical by descent, in any

other living individual in the population. GU-all is the genome uniqueness relative to the entire population. GU-Desc is the genome

uniqueness relative to the living non-founder, descendants.

Inbreeding Coefficient (F) -- Probability that the two alleles at a genetic locus are identical by descent from an ancestor common to

both parents. The mean inbreeding coefficient of a population will be the proportional decrease in observed heterozygosity relative to the

expected heterozygosity of the founder population.

Kinship Value (KV) – The weighted mean kinship of an animal, with the weights being the reproductive values of each of the kin. The

mean kinship value of a population predicts the loss of gene diversity expected in the subsequent generation if all animals were to mate

randomly and all were to produce the numbers of offspring expected for animals of their age.

Mean Generation Time (T) – The average time elapsing from reproduction in one generation to the time the next generation

reproduces. Also, the average age at which a female (or male) produces offspring. It is not the age of first reproduction. Males and

females often have different generation times.

Mean Kinship (MK) – The mean kinship coefficient between an animal and all animals (including itself) in the living, captive-born

population. The mean kinship of a population is equal to the proportional loss of gene diversity of the descendant (captive-born)

population relative to the founders and is also the mean inbreeding coefficient of progeny produced by random mating. Mean kinship is

also the reciprocal of two times the founder genome equivalents: MK = 1 / (2 * FGE). MK = 1 - GD.

Percent Known – Percent of an animal's genome that is traceable to known Founders. Thus, if an animal has an UNK sire, the %

Known = 50. If it has an UNK grandparent, % Known = 75.

Prob Lost – Probability that a random allele from the individual will be lost from the population in the next generation, because neither

this individual nor any of its relatives pass on the allele to an offspring. Assumes that each individual will produce a number of future

offspring equal to its reproductive value, Vx.



24

Appendix H Directory of Institutional Representatives

Contact Name (IR) Institution Email

Yvonne Stainback CALDWELL - Caldwell Zoo, Tyler, TX [email protected]

Carolina Arruda DALLAS WA - Dallas World Aquarium, Dallas, TX [email protected]

Kelly Reno HONOLULU - Honolulu Zoo, Honolulu, HI [email protected]

Hannah Bailey HOUSTON - Houston Zoo, Inc., Houston, TX [email protected]

Mike Taylor JACKSONVL - Jacksonville Zoo and Gardens, Jacksonville, FL [email protected]

Jamie Ries MINNESOTA - Minnesota Zoological Garden, Apple Valley, MN [email protected]

David Oehler NY BRONX - Bronx Zoo/Wildlife Conservation Society, Bronx, NY [email protected]

Kurt Hundgen PITTS CA - National Aviary in Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA [email protected]

Karen Waterfall RIO GRAND - Albuquerque Biological Park, Albuquerque, NM [email protected]

Josef San Miguel SAN ANTON - San Antonio Zoological Gardens & Aqua, San Antonio, TX [email protected]

Shawn Pedersen SEATTLE - Woodland Park Zoological Gardens, Seattle, WA [email protected]

Mike Macek ST LOUIS - Saint Louis Zoological Park, St. Louis, MO [email protected]











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