Population and Deforestation: Field Research in Population and Deforestation: Field Research in GuatemalaGuatemala
University of Colorado Environmental Demography Short CourseUniversity of Colorado Environmental Demography Short Course
July 18, 2008July 18, 2008
David L. CarrDavid L. CarrDepartment of GeographyDepartment of GeographyUniversity of California, Santa Barbara University of California, Santa Barbara
Goals: If we are successful, you will:Goals: If we are successful, you will:
•• Become familiar with an example of population Become familiar with an example of population and deforestation in Central America.and deforestation in Central America.
•• Become more mindful about how knowledge is Become more mindful about how knowledge is produced.produced.
•• Consider the importance of the researcherConsider the importance of the researcher’’s s relationship with informants for:relationship with informants for:–– Successfully acquiring dataSuccessfully acquiring data–– Enhancing data qualityEnhancing data quality–– Appropriately representing your country, university, Appropriately representing your country, university,
discipline, herself, and research subjectsdiscipline, herself, and research subjects–– Respecting informantsRespecting informants–– Ensuring safetyEnsuring safety
OutlineOutlineA. Issues of migration and deforestation in Latin AmericaA. Issues of migration and deforestation in Latin America
–– Background to the problem Background to the problem –– A case study: Colonization and deforestation in the Sierra de A case study: Colonization and deforestation in the Sierra de
LacandLacandóónn National Park, Guatemala.National Park, Guatemala.
B. Linking research questions to field methods: B. Linking research questions to field methods: Methodological considerations in the production of Methodological considerations in the production of knowledgeknowledge-- Understanding the relative strengths of qualitative and Understanding the relative strengths of qualitative and
quantitative research.quantitative research.-- The importance of the relationship between the researcher and The importance of the relationship between the researcher and
informants when conducting field work.informants when conducting field work.-- The importance of the researcher/informant relationship: data The importance of the researcher/informant relationship: data
collection, data quality, integrity, respect, and safety.collection, data quality, integrity, respect, and safety.
OneOne--fifth of the worldfifth of the world’’s original forest cover remains as large intact tractss original forest cover remains as large intact tracts——shown here in green. shown here in green.
A. Issues of migration and deforestation in Latin A. Issues of migration and deforestation in Latin America: America: Background to the problemBackground to the problem
In recent years, virtually all deforestation has In recent years, virtually all deforestation has occurred in the tropics. occurred in the tropics.
Rapid forest clearing in the tropics is Rapid forest clearing in the tropics is implicated in several trends:implicated in several trends:•• Reduction of biodiversity (increasingly in Reduction of biodiversity (increasingly in
protected areas)protected areas)•• Climate changeClimate change•• Food production challengesFood production challenges•• Exacerbation of rural povertyExacerbation of rural poverty
cropscropsforestforest
FARMFARM UNOCCUPIED UNOCCUPIED FORESTFOREST
SURROUNDING FARMSSURROUNDING FARMS
Why Study Migration and Deforestation Together?Why Study Migration and Deforestation Together?•• Migration is an immediate prerequisite to tropical deforestatiMigration is an immediate prerequisite to tropical deforestationon
•• Why people migrated to the frontier is as essential to understWhy people migrated to the frontier is as essential to understanding anding deforestation as what they are doing once they are there deforestation as what they are doing once they are there
•• Internal vs. external forest frontiersInternal vs. external forest frontiers
Research Question 1Research Question 1What factors predict the proximate cause of What factors predict the proximate cause of deforestation in the SLNP?deforestation in the SLNP? (What factors are (What factors are associated with farmer land use?) associated with farmer land use?)
Research Question 2Research Question 2What factors help explain the primary underlying What factors help explain the primary underlying cause of deforestation in the SLNP?cause of deforestation in the SLNP? (What factors (What factors are related to ruralare related to rural--frontier migration?)frontier migration?)
Research Question 1Research Question 1What are the Proximate Determinants What are the Proximate Determinants
of Forest Clearing in the Sierra de of Forest Clearing in the Sierra de LacandLacandóónn National Park?National Park?
0 200 Miles
N
EW
SSierra de Lacandón
National Park
Maya Biosphere Reserve
Guatemala
Petén
The SLNP boasts the richest biodiversity in the Maya The SLNP boasts the richest biodiversity in the Maya Biosphere Reserve.Biosphere Reserve.
The The NaranjoNaranjo Road in 1987Road in 1987
The SLNP suffers some of the highest rates of population The SLNP suffers some of the highest rates of population growth and agricultural expansion in the MBRgrowth and agricultural expansion in the MBR
0 20 Miles
N
EW
S
RoadsForestForest Cleared < 1990Forest Cleared > 1990Water
U. Maine Spatial Analysis Lab
200520072007
Deforestation: 2005Deforestation: 2005--20072007
Roads enabled colonization, but land use is determined at the Roads enabled colonization, but land use is determined at the household and local levels.household and local levels.
20022002
19991999
a. a. InterviewsInterviews with with community leaders community leaders in 28 communities in 28 communities responsible for responsible for LUCC in the SLNP.LUCC in the SLNP.
b. b. SurveysSurveys with 279 with 279 men and 220 men and 220 women from 9 women from 9 communities.communities.
Question 1: Research MethodsQuestion 1: Research Methods
Macro-Scale demographic, political-economic, social, and ecological dynamics
Urban or International Destinations
Rural Destination
Agricultural Extensification
Agricultural Intensification
Return to Top of Chart
MigrationFertility regulation
Off-farm Labor
Household Responses
Local Variation
Land Management
Land Use in the SLNP
Other response??
The Research Team
Población y Uso de la Tierra en el Parque Nacional de LacandónCuestionario de hogar - Para Jefes de Hogar
Nombre:
Comunidad:
Encuestador:
Seccion I: La familia y la casaQué edad tienen? Ud._______ Su esposa (o pareja)__________
En que año se casaron (se unieron)?______
Ha vivido casado o unido con otra mujer antes?01 - SI 02 - NO [salte a la siguiente pregunta]
Cúantos hijos tuvo Ud. antes de vivir con su actual mujer?______
Cúantas personas viven en la casa actualmente? [indique hombre “H” o mujer “M”]edad hijos/as Hijos que están
estudiandohermanos/as padres tios/as Suegros/as cuñados/as otros,
especifique0-56-1212-1818-4950 o más
A qué trabajo le dedica más tiempo?01 - agricultor 02 - extractor de recursos boscosos 03 - negociante 04 - otro, explique
Quién maneja los ingresos de la familia? 01 - el hombre 02 - la mujer 03 - los dos
Su religión es: 01 - Católica 02 - Evangélica 03 - Ninguna 04 - Otra, especifique
Cuando era niño, su mamá le hablaba en qué idioma?01 Español 02 Q’eqchi 03 Otro, especifique__________
Y ahora, Ud. habla qué idioma en casa?01 Español 02 Q’eqchi 03 Otro, especifique__________
P o b la c ió n y U s o d e la T ie r r a e n e l P a r q u e N a c io n a l d e L a c a n d ó nC u e s t io n a r io d e h o g a r - P a r a J e f e s d e H o g a r (Q ’e q c h í)
L a K ’a b ’á :
K ’a le b ’a a l;
L a a K ’a b ’á L a a t la j I s ih o m E s i l :
J u n R a q a l: L i J u n k a b ’a l u t l i o c h o c h .J a ru b ’c h ih a b ’ w a n k a a w e ? L a S u n a a t in ja ru b ’ a h ih a b ’ w a n k re
L i c h ih a b ’ x e x S u m la w i’ M a ra j l i x e la q ’w i’ e r ib ’ )? _ _ _ _ _0 1 – H e ’ H e ’ 0 2 – In k a ’
` ja ru b i la K o k ’ a l la a t n a q m a j i ’ n a k a t w a n r ik ’ in l i t z ’a q a l? _ _ _ _ _ _
A n i n a c h ’e o k re l ix tu m in a l l i ju n k a b ’a l? 0 1 – l i w in q 0 2 – l i Ix q 0 3 – S a ’w iib ’a l .
L a P a a b ’ a a l : 0 1 - K a to o lk 0 2 - W a n je e l 0 3 - M a n ju n 0 4 - ju n a , c h ik
N a q to j k a c ’ in o t c h a q K ’a c h i a a t ’ b ’a a l n a k a t’ ra a t in a lu i?0 1 K a x la n c h i ’ 0 2 Q ’e q c h i 0 3 O tro ,
e s p e c if iq u e _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
u t n a jw a k ?0 1 la a ’a t K ’a ru 0 2 la w a a t in a ’b ’a a l 0 3 n a k a t a a t in a k S á l a
w o c h o c h _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
M a x a t h u la k ? S á R o c h ó c h i l l i tz o lo k
T o j K ’a c h i R a q a l i l x a tz o lo k ? _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
M a n a k a t y a a b ’a s in k ru h u u t M a n a k a t T z ’ i ib ’a k ? 0 1 – H e ’ H e ’ 0 2 –In k a ’
M a ta w a j n a q e b ’ la K o k ’a l te ’ tz o lo q ? 0 1 – H e ’ H e ’ 0 2 – In k a ’
[ W i’ t s u m e h e h e ’ “ | to j k ’a c h i R a q a l i l? a ) to j b ’a r t ru u q b ’
b a r n u c h a l la s i ’ ? 0 1 s a ’ l i k io c h e S a ’ l in K ’a n je la b ’a a l 0 2 s á l in p a rs e e l 0 3 s á l ina lk ’a l R e l iw o c h o c h ’ 0 4 S á K ’ ic h e ? )
1998 Average Land Use in Hectares. Farm Size = 34.38 hectares
19.2
7.1
4.9
0.41.31.00.5
forestfallowcornfrijolpastureotherabandoned
Simplified MultiSimplified Multi--level Equationlevel Equation
yij ij j ija X u e= + + +β
Household level random effect
Community level random effect
1. Demographics factorsHousehold size + 0.32. Political-economic factorsNo land title ? -7.4Cooperative - -11.33. Socioeconomic FactorsHousehold socio-economic characteristicsMaya vs. Ladino ? 3.4Educational level of HH Head - 0.1Off-farm labor - -3.0Farm and Farming CharacteristicsSize of total holdings + 0.3Distance to road - -0.5Duration on the Farm + 0.2Additional agricultural fields + 4.5Velvet Bean and/or herbicides - 1.43. Ecological FactorsFertile Soil ? 1.24. Community-Level FactorsCommunity Population + 2.9P values: < or = .01 < or = .10
Two-Level Multivariate Regression
Estimated
Predictors Cleared Land
Expected
Ecological FactorsEcological Factors
• Forest abundance = Expansive swidden and avoidance of farming steep slopes
Demographic FactorsDemographic Factors
• 10% Annual Growth mid 1990s
Larger Communities Larger Communities More More Forest Cleared.Forest Cleared.
• 8 Births per Woman
Larger Households Larger Households More More Forest Cleared.Forest Cleared.
PoliticalPolitical--economic Factorseconomic Factors
Peten’s Capital, Flores: Home of 30+ NGOs
Squatter Settlement in the SLNP
Land Title Land Title
More Forest Cleared.More Forest Cleared.
SocioSocio--economic Factorseconomic Factors
•25% Maya
Maya Farmers Maya Farmers More More Forest Cleared. ButForest Cleared. But……
Gender DifferencesGender Differences
Poor farmers Poor farmers
Less Forest Cleared.Less Forest Cleared.
•Extreme Poverty
•• Most skewed land distribution Most skewed land distribution in Latin Americain Latin America
•• Demographic PressuresDemographic Pressures
•• Civil WarCivil War
Research Question 2Research Question 2Where did the SLNP colonists come from and why from there?Where did the SLNP colonists come from and why from there?
Macro-Scale demographic, political-economic, social, and ecological dynamics
Urban or International Destinations
Rural Destination
Agricultural Extensification
Agricultural Intensification
Return to Top of Chart
MigrationFertility regulation
Off-farm Labor
Household Responses
Local Variation
Land Management
Research Question 2: Migration to the SLNP
Other response??
DepartamentosDepartamentos of Guatemala and Migration Origin of Guatemala and Migration Origin MunicipiosMunicipios
Morales
Fray Bartolomé de las Casas
Nueva Concepción
Original map source: http://www.inguat.net/redtp/map/indexe.html
Jutiapa
Gualan
Los Amates
San Luis
Dolores
Sierra de LacandónNational Park
Cobán
Mazatenango
RetalhuleuEl Asintal
Santa Cruz Mulúa
San Martín Zapotitlán
Iztapa
San Miguel DuenasMunicipios in red are the three case studies explained in greater detail.
Origin Areas Migration DataOrigin Areas Migration DataPercent of adults permanently out-migrating from 1989 to 1999 Approximate %
Men 10%
Women 10%
Principal Destinations Primary employment
Guatemala City Factory or service worker 35%
Peten Acquire land for farming 35%
USA Factory, service, or agricultural worker 10%
Other Plantation laborer 10%
Principal pushes/pulls
Work 35%
Land 30%
Improve living standard/education 20%
Natural disasters/Env. Degradation 10%
Why did people migrate to the SLNP?Why did people migrate to the SLNP?
Ecological Factors
Socio-economic Factors
Demographic Factors
Political-economic Factors
Three Three MunicipiosMunicipios of Guatemala and Migration Origin of Guatemala and Migration Origin MunicipiosMunicipios
Fray Bartolomé de las Casas
Nueva Concepción
Original map source: http://www.inguat.net/redtp/map/indexe.html
Sierra de LacandónNational Park
Morales
Three reasons why Three reasons why place matters:place matters:
VerapacesVerapaces: : Fray Fray BartolomBartoloméé de de laslas CasasCasas
Pacific Coast: Nueva Concepción
Southeastern Coastal Plains: MoralesSoutheastern Coastal Plains: Morales
Research Summary •• Demographic and Land Use literatures neglect rural Demographic and Land Use literatures neglect rural
migration and therefore how migration and therefore how a process in one place and time affects a process in one place and time affects another process in another place and timeanother process in another place and time
•• MultiphasicMultiphasic ApproachApproach: Households migrate : Households migrate andand clear forest. clear forest. Neither are ultimate outcomes; household agency can be Neither are ultimate outcomes; household agency can be simultaneous and sequentialsimultaneous and sequential
•• SpaceSpace Matters: Land = #1 Migration incentive and #1 Predictor of Matters: Land = #1 Migration incentive and #1 Predictor of deforesationdeforesation. The values change but the variables remain the same. The values change but the variables remain the same
•• PlacePlace Matters: Fray, Morales, Matters: Fray, Morales, NuevaNueva ConcepcionConcepcion
•• Future research: Examine Future research: Examine proximate proximate and and underlying underlying drivers of drivers of Population and LUCC; space, place and time are heuristics to Population and LUCC; space, place and time are heuristics to distinguish recurrent patterns from placedistinguish recurrent patterns from place--based exceptions.based exceptions.
B. Linking research questions to field B. Linking research questions to field methods: Methodological considerations in methods: Methodological considerations in
the production of knowledgethe production of knowledge
B. Linking research questions to field B. Linking research questions to field methods: Methodological considerations in methods: Methodological considerations in
the production of knowledge the production of knowledge
Quantitative methods:• What is a survey and why use one?• Advantages and disadvantages
Qualitative methods:• Why use semi-structured interviews?• Advantages and disadvantages• Other qualitative methods
Mixed Methods
The Purpose of Sampling in The Purpose of Sampling in Quantitative SurveysQuantitative Surveys
Probabilitysampling
Study Population
II
Sample:Collection of Values(with measurement
error and/ornonresponse effects)
The Purpose of Sampling in The Purpose of Sampling in Qualitative InterviewsQualitative Interviews
Study Population
II
Sample:semi-structured
to understandprocesses and relationships
Selected informants
Survey and Interview Design
How will you design your research instruments to How will you design your research instruments to maximize data quality?maximize data quality?
•• ValidityValidity•• Time and financial constraintsTime and financial constraints•• What else must be considered? What else must be considered?
TRUST IMPORTANTTRUST IMPORTANT!!
C. The importance of the relationship between the C. The importance of the relationship between the researcher and informants when conducting field workresearcher and informants when conducting field work
If you were doing field work in Latin America, what ways might yIf you were doing field work in Latin America, what ways might you establish ou establish trust with informants ? trust with informants ?
Goal: Goal: Maximize the quality of your data collection and data quality, rMaximize the quality of your data collection and data quality, represent epresent yourself with integrity (you are representing more than just youyourself with integrity (you are representing more than just yourself), treat rself), treat informants with respect, and ensure your safety.informants with respect, and ensure your safety.
might
NuevaNueva JerusalenJerusalen II: Failure and successII: Failure and success
How might your experience be different talking to the heads of these two households?
Would you speak the same to the women on the left Would you speak the same to the women on the left as to the woman on the right?as to the woman on the right?
What different insights might these two men offer?
Conclusion•• An example of population and deforestation in An example of population and deforestation in
Central America: the Sierra de Central America: the Sierra de LacandonLacandon National National Park, GuatemalaPark, Guatemala
•• Linking research questions to field work.Linking research questions to field work.•• The importance of the relationship between the The importance of the relationship between the
researcher and informants for:researcher and informants for:–– Successfully acquiring your dataSuccessfully acquiring your data–– Enhancing your data qualityEnhancing your data quality–– Appropriately representing your country, your Appropriately representing your country, your
university, your discipline, yourself, and your research university, your discipline, yourself, and your research subjectssubjects
–– Respecting your informantsRespecting your informants–– Ensuring your safetyEnsuring your safety
