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Population Change in Michigan IPPSR Incoming Legislator Program Eric Guthrie, PhD December 4, 2018
Population Change in Michigan
IPPSR Incoming Legislator Program
Eric Guthrie, PhD
December 4, 2018
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State Demographer
• Michigan’s liaison with the U.S. Census Bureau for most programs including population estimates, projections, data dissemination and the decennial census
• Advisor to state leaders, businesses, non-profits, the media, and the general public on issues related to population and the Census
• Lead for the State Data Center (SDC)
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• I send out updates when there is a significant data release from the Census Bureau
• The Bureau of Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives also sends out regular updates on a wealth of topics
• You can sign up for those updates and pick what topics interest you at: https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/MIDEPTTMB/subscriber/new
Subscribe to the Bureau’s Listserv for updates
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• 2020 Census
• State Population (trends and projections)
• How Populations Change
• Population Structure
• Poverty
Topics
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• Once a decade count of all residents
– Required by the Constitution
– Used in Redistricting
– Forms the basis of all the demographic data produced by the federal government
• The next two years will see the ramp-up and execution of the Census
– Partnership activities
– Census offices
– Complete Count Committees
– Local hiring
– Address canvasing
2020 Census
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Michigan Population
9,952,450
10,055,315
9,876,199
9,962,311
9,750,000
9,800,000
9,850,000
9,900,000
9,950,000
10,000,000
10,050,000
10,100,000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program
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Michigan Projected Population
9,400,000
9,600,000
9,800,000
10,000,000
10,200,000
10,400,000
10,600,000
10,800,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program; MDOT and U-M’s Institute for Research on Labor, Employment, and the Economy (IRLEE)
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Why Does It Matter?
• There are only three things that affect a population size over time:
– Births
– Deaths
– Migration
Population2 =
Population1 + Births – Deaths + (In-migrations – Out-migration)
Natural Change Net Migration
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Births
134,642136,171
113,091
113,312
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
160,000
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)
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Population Change Due to Births and Deaths
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Population Estimates
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Population Change Due to Births and Deaths
Source: Michigan Department of Technology, Management, and Budget; Bureau of Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives
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Net Migration
-100,000
-80,000
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
90
-91
91
-92
92
-93
93
-94
94
-95
95
-96
96
-97
97
-98
98
-99
99
-00
00
-01
01
-02
02
-03
03
-04
04
-05
05
-06
06
-07
07
-08
08
-09
09
-10
10
-11
11
-12
12
-13
13
-14
14
-15
15
-16
16
-17
Source: Michigan DTMB, BLMISI; U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program; MDHHS
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Net Migration
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Population Estimates
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Net Domestic Migration
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Population Estimates
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Net International Migration
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Population Estimates
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Michigan Age Structure
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)
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Michigan Age Structure
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)
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Michigan Age Structure
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)
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County Median Ages
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program
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Geographic Distribution of Poverty
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey, 5-year Estimates
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Detroit and Pontiac
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey, 5-year Estimates
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Flint
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey, 5-year Estimates
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Saginaw, Bay City, and Midland
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey, 5-year Estimates
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Lansing
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey, 5-year Estimates
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Battle Creek and Kalamazoo
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey, 5-year Estimates
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Grand Rapids and Muskegon
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey, 5-year Estimates
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• Michigan’s population has fluctuated over the last 15 to 20 years, but it is increasing again
– The state should pass the 10M mark soon
– The state will likely reach/surpass its peak population early to mid-decade
• Migration will be the factor that will most affect the state’s population positively in the years to come
• Poverty exits throughout the state, but it reaches it highest concentrations in urban areas.
Take-aways
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Questions?
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Eric A. Guthrie, PhDState DemographerDepartment of Technology, Management & BudgetBureau of Labor Market Information & Strategic InitiativesVictor Office Building201 N. Washington Square5th FloorLansing, MI 48913(517) 241-8667
