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Population Dynamics
Focus on births (B) & deaths (D)
B = bNt , where b = per capita rate (births per individual per time)
D = dNt
N = bNt – dNt = (b-d)Nt
Exponential Growth
• Density-independent growth models
Discrete birth intervals (Birth Pulse)
vs.
Continuous breeding (Birth Flow)
Time
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
N
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Nt = N0t
= 2, N0 = 2
Geometric Growth (Birth Pulse) > 1
< 1
= 1
Nt = N0 t
Geometric Growth• When generations do not overlap, growth can be
modeled geometrically.
Nt = Noλt
– Nt = Number of individuals at time t.
– No = Initial number of individuals.
– λ = Geometric rate of increase.– t = Number of time intervals or generations.
Exponential Growth Birth Pulse Population (Geometric Growth)
e.g., woodchucks
(10 individuals to 20 indivuals)
N0 = 10, N1 = 20
N1 = N0 ,
where = growth multiplier = finite rate of increase
> 1 increase
< 1 decrease
= 1 stable population
Exponential Growth Birth Pulse Population
N2 = 40 = N1
N2 = (N0 ) = N0 2
Nt = N0 t
Nt+1 = Nt
Exponential Growth • Density-independent growth models
Discrete birth intervals (Birth Pulse)
vs.
Continuous breeding (Birth Flow)
Exponential Growth• Continuous population growth in an unlimited
environment can be modeled exponentially.
dN / dt = rN
• Appropriate for populations with overlapping generations.– As population size (N) increases, rate of population
increase (dN/dt) gets larger.
Exponential Growth• For an exponentially growing population, size at any
time can be calculated as:
Nt = Noert
• Nt = Number individuals at time t.• N0 = Initial number of individuals.• e = Base of natural logarithms = 2.718281828459 • r = Per capita rate of increase.• t = Number of time intervals.
Exponential Population Growth
Exponential Population Growth
Time
ln(N
t)
ln(N0)
slope = r
ln(Nt) = ln(N0) + rtNt = N0ert
Difference Eqn
Note: λ = er
Exponential growth and change over time
Time (t)
Nu
mb
er
(N)
N = N0ert
Number (N)S
lop
e (
dN
/dt)
dN/dt = rN
Slope = (change in N) / (change in time)
= dN / dt
ON THE MEANING OF r rm - intrinsic rate of increase – unlimited
resourses
rmax – absolute maximal rm
- also called rc = observedr
r > 0r < 0r = 0
x
x
rm > 0
rm >> 0
rm < 0
rmax
Geographic Range andValues of rm
Intrinsic Rates of Increase• On average, small organisms have higher
rates of per capita increase and more variable populations than large organisms.
Growth of a Whale Population
• Pacific gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus) divided into Western and Eastern Pacific subpopulations.– Rice and Wolman estimated average annual
mortality rate of 0.089 and calculated annual birth rate of 0.13.
0.13 - 0.089 = 0.041
– Gray Whale population growing at 4.1% per yr.
Growth of a Whale Population
• Reilly et.al. used annual migration counts from 1967-1980 to obtain 2.5% growth rate.– Thus from 1967-1980, pattern of growth in
California gray whale population fit the exponential model:
Nt = Noe0.025t
• What values of λ allow– Population Growth
– Stable Population Size
– Population Decline
• What values of r allow– Population Growth
– Stable Population Size
– Population Decline• λ < 1.0
• λ = 1.0
• λ > 1.0
• r = 0
• r > 0
• r < 0
Logistic Population Growth• As resources are depleted, population growth rate
slows and eventually stops
• Sigmoid (S-shaped) population growth curve– Carrying capacity (K): number of individuals of a
population the environment can support• Finite amount of resources can only support a finite number
of individuals
Logistic Population Growth
Logistic Population GrowthdN / dt = rN
dN/dt = rN(1-N/K)
• r = per capita rate of increase • When N nears K, the right side of the equation nears
zero– As population size increases, logistic growth rate becomes a
small fraction of growth rate• Highest when N=K/2• N/K = Environmental resistance
Exponential & Logistic Growth(J & S Curve)
Logistic Growth
Actual Growth
Populations Fluctuate
Limits to Population Growth
• Environment limits population growth by altering birth and death rates– Density-dependent factors
• Disease, Resource competition
– Density-independent factors• Natural disasters
Galapagos Finch Population Growth
Logistic Population Model
A. Discrete equationNt = 2, R = 0.15,
K = 450
Logistic Population Growth
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
0 20 40 60 80 100
Time
N(t)
Kr NNNN t
ttt1
1
- Built in time lag = 1
- Nt+1 depends on Nt
I. Logistic Population Model
B. Density Dependence
I. Logistic Population Model C. Assumptions
• No immigration or emigration
• No age or stage structure to influence births and deaths
• No genetic structure to influence births and deaths
• No time lags in continuous model
I. Logistic Population Model C. Assumptions
• Linear relationship of per capita growth rate and population size (linear DD)
K
I. Logistic Population Model C. Assumptions
• Linear relationship of per capita growth rate and population size (linear DD)
• Constant carrying capacity – availability of resources is constant in time and space– Reality?
I. Logistic Population Model
Discrete equation Nt = 2, r = 1.9,
K = 450Logistic Population Growth
0.0100.0200.0300.0400.0500.0600.0
0 20 40 60 80 100
Time
N(t)
Damped Oscillations
r <2.0
I. Logistic Population Model
Discrete equationNt = 2, r = 2.5,
K = 450
Stable Limit Cycles
2.0 < r < 2.57* K = midpoint
Logistic Population Growth
0.0100.0200.0300.0400.0500.0600.0
0 20 40 60 80 100
Time
N(t)
I. Logistic Population Model
Discrete equationNt = 2, r = 2.9,
K = 450
Chaos r > 2.57• Not random change• Due to DD feedback and time lag in model
Logistic Population Growth
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
0 20 40 60 80 100
Time
N(t)
Underpopulation or Allee Effect• Opposite type of DD
– population size down and population growth down
N
Vital rate
N* K
d
b
b=db=d
b<dr<0
I. Review of Logistic Population Model
D. Deterministic vs. Stochastic Models
Nt = 1, r = 2, K = 100
* Parameters set deterministic behavior same
I. Review of Logistic Population Model
D. Deterministic vs. Stochastic Models
Nt = 1, r = 0.15, SD = 0.1;
K = 100, SD = 20
* Stochastic model, r and K change at random each time step
I. Review of Logistic Population Model
D. Deterministic vs. Stochastic Models
Nt = 1, r = 0.15, SD = 0.1;
K = 100, SD = 20
* Stochastic model
I. Review of Logistic Population Model
D. Deterministic vs. Stochastic Models
Nt = 1, r = 0.15, SD = 0.1;
K = 100, SD = 20
* Stochastic model
II. Environmental StochasticityA. Defined
• Unpredictable change in environment occurring in time & space
• Random “good” or “bad” years in terms of changes in r and/or K
• Random variation in environmental conditions in separate populations
• Catastrophes = extreme form of environmental variation such as floods, fires, droughts
• High variability can lead to dramatic fluctuations in populations, perhaps leading to extinction
II. Environmental StochasticityA. Defined
• Unpredictable change in environment occurring in time & space
• Random “good” or “bad” years in terms of changes in r and/or K
• Random variation in environmental conditions in separate populations
• Catastrophes = extreme form of environmental variation such as floods, fires, droughts
• High variability can lead to dramatic fluctuations in populations, perhaps leading to extinction
II. Environmental StochasticityA. Defined
• Unpredictable change in environment occurring in time & space
• Random “good” or “bad” years in terms of changes in r and/or K
• Random variation in environmental conditions in separate populations
• Catastrophes = extreme form of environmental variation such as floods, fires, droughts
• High variability can lead to dramatic fluctuations in populations, perhaps leading to extinction
II. Environmental StochasiticityB. Examples – variable fecundity
Relation Dec-Apr rainfall and number
of juvenile California quail per adult (Botsford et
al. 1988 in Akcakaya et al.
1999)
II. Environmental StochasiticityB. Examples - variable
survivorship
Relation total rainfall pre-nesting and proportion of Scrub Jay nests to
fledge (Woolfenden and Fitzpatrik 1984 in Akcakaya et al.
1999)
II. Environmental StochasiticityB. Examples – variable rate of increase
Muskox population on
Nunivak Island, 1947-1964
(Akcakaya et al. 1999)
II. Environmental Stochasiticity- Example of random K
• Serengeti wildebeest data set – recovering from Rinderpest outbreak
– Fluctuations around K possibly related to rainfall
rNdt
dN
K
NrN
dt
dN1
Exponential vs. Logistic
No DDAll populations same
DDAll populations same
No Spatial component
Space Is the Final Frontier in Ecology
• History of ecology = largely nonspatiale.g., *competitors mixed perfectly with prey
*homogeneous ecosystems with uniform distributions of resources
• But ecology = fundamentally spatial– ecology = interaction of organisms with their
[spatial] environment
Incorporating Space
Metapopulation: a population of subpopulations linked by dispersal of organisms
Two processes = extinction & recolonization
• subpopulations separated by unsuitable habitat (“oceanic island-like”)
• subpopulations can differ in population size & distance between
Metapopulation Model (Look familiar?)
eppcpdt
dp 1
p = habitat patch (subpopulation)c = colonizatione = extinction
Metapopulation Model (Look familiar?)
eppcpdt
dp 1
)]/(1[)(
))]/1/((1[)(
KNNdbdt
dN
meppemdt
dp
Rescue Effect
Another Population Model
Source-sink Dynamics: grouping of multiple subpopulations, some are sinks & some are sources
Source Population = births > deaths = net exporter
Sink Population = births < deaths
<1
<1
>1
Metapopulations• Definition of Population?• Groups of populations within which there is a
significant amount of movement of individuals via dispersal
Classic Metapopulation
Metapopulation Con’t
• This kind of population structure applies when there are “groups” of populations occupying habitat that occurs in discrete patches (patchy).
• These patches are separated by areas of inhospitable habitat, but connected by routes for dispersal.
• Populations fluctuate independently of each other
The probability of dispersal from one patch to another depends on:• Distance between patches
• Nature of habitat corridors linking the patches
• Ability of the species to disperse (vagility or mobility) – dependent on body size
Who Cares?
Why bother discussing these models?
Metapopulations & Source-sink Populatons highlight the importance of:
• habitat & landscape fragmentation
• connectivity between isolated populations
• genetic diversity