Population

Issues & Paradox

Content

1. World Population2. Ageing Population3. Migration4. Singapore Population5. Alternative Families6. P1 Skills Segment

1. World Population

1800 1930 1960 1974 1987 1999 2011 20500

1

2

3

4

5

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7

8

9

10

1800(1bn)

1930(2bn) 1960

(3bn)

1974(4bn) 1987

(5bn)

1999(6bn) 2011

(7bn)

2050(9bn?)

World Population (in Billion)

Slow growth

Accelerated growth

THINK: What are the reasons for the acceleration in the growth of the world population?

1. World Population

• What happened?– 1800 to 1930• Poor living conditions, war, famine, diseases• Birth Rate ≈ Mortality Rate• Net effect = Very Slow Population Growth

– 1960 to 2011• Better medicine, improved nutrition• Birth Rate > Mortality Rate• Net effect = Rapid Population Growth

1. World Population Population in

2013Projected Population in 2050

Rate of Natural Increase (2013)

2050 Population as a Multiple of 2013

More Developed Countries

1.2 billion 1.3 billion 0.1% 1.1

Less Developed Countries

5.9 billion 8.4 billion 1.4% 1.4

Least Developed Countries

0.9 billion 1.8 billion 2.5% 2.1

World 7.1 billion 9.7 billion 1.2% 1.4

1. World Population

• Paradox of Imbalanced Population Growth– Countries that have problems feeding and taking

care of their population are the ones that have rapidly reproducing populations

– According to the National Geographic Channel’s “7 Billion” video, around the world: • 13% have no access to clean drinking water• 38% lack proper sanitation

1. World Population

• Reasons for Imbalanced Population Growth– In agrarian societies, each newborn means an

additional labour asset to the family– Role of women and status of childbearing– Increased chances of survival amid high infant

mortality rate– Ignorance of contraception– Unique cultural factors or beliefs. Eg. religious

prohibition against contraception– Advances in technology and medical sciences

1. World Population

• Implications of Overpopulation– Malnutrition and starvation• 21,000 people die every day due to hunger or hunger-

related causes

– Social unrest– Strain on government’s resources– Negative repercussions on environment• Example of Madagascar

2. Ageing Population

• Definition– Societies in which the median age of its people rises

due to the twin factors of lower birth rates (fewer babies born) and longer life expectancy (people living longer).

• Key Trend– Percentage of the population aged 65 or older:

• World: 8%• More developed countries: 17%• Less developed countries: 6%• Least developed countries: 3%

2. Ageing Population• Paradox of an Ageing Population

– Instead of overpopulation problems, these countries face shrinking population. If left unchecked, the number of people in the society would simply hollow out. With fewer babies born and longer life expectancy, median age of the society will increase

– Even China, the most populous nation in the world today, is facing an ageing population.

In China 1970 Today

% of children 40 18Median age 19 35Number of working-age adults per retiree

14 8

THINK: Which government policy has contributed to China’s ageing population? Which other country had to review its policy in view of declining birth rates?

2. Ageing Population

• Reasons– Low birth rate:• Mindset change • Delayed marriage

– Improved longevity:• Better healthcare• Improved nutrition• Affluence contributes to overall well-being

2. Ageing Population

• Total Fertility Rate (TFR)– The average number of children each woman

would have in her lifetime.• Replacement TFR– The TFR at which the society is replacing itself

(enough children for each man-woman couple).– Replacement TFR is 2.1.

THINK: Why is the Replacement TFR 2.1 and not 2?

2. Ageing Population• Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

Highest TFR Lowest TFRNiger 7.6 Bosnia-Herzegovina 1.2

Chad 7.0 Taiwan 1.3Somalia 6.8 Moldova 1.3Congo 6.3 Poland 1.3Angola 6.3 Portugal 1.3Burundi 6.2 Singapore 1.3

Uganda 6.2 South Korea 1.3

Central African Republic 6.2 Spain 1.3Mali 6.1 Slovakia 1.3Burkina Faso 6.0 Hungary 1.3

Figures from 2013 Population Data Sheet, Population Reference Bureau (http://www.prb.org)

2. Ageing Population• Implications of an Ageing Population

– Individuals• From the children’s point of view:

– Responsibility of Care for Parents (esp. those who are frail)– Maintenance of Parents Act (passed in 1995)

• From the ageing parents’ point of view:– Anxiety/Worry to be a burden to their family– Some would succumb to depression– Financial insecurity

– Community• Social Support Programmes to encourage “Active Ageing”• Possibility of increased taxes (when the old-age support ratio falls)

– Corporations• Products/Services aimed at seniors (eg, hearing aids, joints supplements)

– Japan introduced robots in 2013 to provide assistance and companionship to the aged and the infirm.

– Government• Pension/Social Security Payout• Healthcare Costs• Universal Design Features in Housing

3. Migration

• Definition of Migration: Movement of people from one place to another– Trans-national migration– Rural-urban migration• In 2008, for the first time in history, more than half of

the world’s population live in cities

• Difference between Emigration and Immigration– Emigration = Exit– Immigration = Incoming

3. Migration1950 2011

No. of People in the Top 30 Megacities

117 million 426 million

No. of Industrialised Countries in the Top 30 Megacities

20 9

THINK: What are the Top 30 Megacities? What are the implications of having more developing countries forming the Top 30

Megacities list?

1950 2011

USA – New York-Newark (12m), Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana (4m), Chicago (5m), Philadelphia (3m), Detroit (3m), Boston (3m), San Francisco-Oakland (2m)Japan – Tokyo (11m), Osaka-Kobe (4m)UK – London (8m), Manchester (2m), Birmingham (2m), Glasgow (2m)France – Paris (6m)Russia – Moscow (5m), St Petersburg (3m)Argentina – Buenos Aires (5m)India – Kolkata (5m), Mumbai (3m)China – Shanghai (4m), Tianjin (2m), Shenyang (2m) Germany – Berlin (3m)Brazil – Rio de Janeiro (3m), Sao Paulo (2m)Mexico – Mexico City (3m)Egypt – Cairo (2m)Italy – Rome (2m), Milan (2m)Spain – Barcelona (2m)

Japan – Tokyo (37m), Osaka-Kobe (11m)India – Delhi (23m), Mumbai (20m), Kolkata (14m)Mexico – New Mexico City (21m)USA – New York-Newark (20m), Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana (13m), Chicago (10m)China – Shanghai (20m), Beijing (16m), Guangzhou, Guangdong (11m), Shenzhen (11m), Chongqing (10m), Wuhan (9m)Brazil – Sao Paulo (20m), Rio de Janeiro (12m)Bangladesh – Dhaka (15m)Pakistan – Karachi (14m)Argentina – Buenos Aires (14m)Philippines – Manila (12m)Russia – Moscow (12m)Turkey – Istanbul (11m)Nigeria – Lagos (11m)Egypt – Cairo (11m)France – Paris (11m)Indonesia – Jakarta (10m)S. Korea – Seoul (10m)Peru – Lima (9m)UK – London (9m)

3. Migration

• Paradox of Migration– A viable solution to solve low birth rates?– UN report: over the next 50 years, the populations

of virtually all countries of Europe as well as Japan will face population decline and population ageing

– “Replacement Migration”: the international migration that a country would need to offset population decline and population ageing resulting from low fertility and mortality rates

3. Migration

• Implications of Migration– Solution to labour shortage (+)– Culture clash (-)• Muslim immigrants in “Christian” Europe• Homogeneous and close-knitted countries like Japan

and South Korea

THINK: How far should immigration be encouraged to solve a country’s

population woes?

4. Singapore Population

• Singapore’s Population Paradox– Similar to developed countries in America, Europe

and Asia– Twin problems:• Declining fertility rate• Ageing population

– Singapore’s Total Fertility Rate of 1.3 is far below the replacement rate of 2.1

– By 2030, 1 out of every 4 Singaporeans will be aged 65 or older.

4. Singapore Population• Old-Age

Support Ratio– The ratio of

residents (aged 20-64 years) for every elderly resident aged 65 and above.

– The smaller base of economically active citizens may have to pay higher taxes to support the ageing population and their growing needs.

Declining Old-Age Support Ratio since 1970. Chart from population.sg Figures from Singapore Department of Statistics

4. Singapore Population

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

Rate of Natural Increase (per 1,000 population)

Figures from Department of Statistics, Singapore

Late 1960s: “Stop at Two” policy

1970: Abortion and sterilisation legalised

1984: Graduate Mothers Scheme

1986: FPPB abolished

1966: Family Planning and Population Board (FPPB) formed

1987: Have Three or More (if you can afford it)

2001: Baby Bonus Scheme introduced

2013: Enhanced Marriage & Parenthood Package

4. Singapore Population

1990 2000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0Singapore CitizensSingapore Permanent ResidentsNon-Residents

Average Annual Growth Rate (in Percentage)Figures from Department of Statistics, Singapore

4. Singapore PopulationFrom this… To this…

Photos: National Archives, ST

THINK: Is having babies a private decision or a “national service”? How

far should the government be involved in its citizens’ lives?

4. Singapore Population

• Why aren’t more Singaporeans grabbing the “baby bonus” and have more kids?– Social Factors• Longer working hours = less time for socialising.

Reduced chances of finding partners.

– Lifestyle Choice• Preference to remain single, get married later or have

fewer children (if any, at all).

– Money Matters• High cost of living in Singapore. Raising a child is

“expensive”.

4. Singapore Population

• Immigration to boost the population– Younger immigrants will help to “top up” the smaller cohort of

younger Singaporeans and balance the “ageing” of the citizen population.

– To stop Singapore’s citizen population from shrinking, Singapore will take in 15,000 to 25,000 new citizens each year.

– Permanent Residency (PR) has been tightened significantly from a high of 79,000 new PRs in 2008 to about 30,000 currently.

– With the controlled immigration rate, the citizen population is projected to be between 3.6 and 3.8 million by 2030. Inclusive of non-residents and PR, the country’s population could reach 6.9 million.

Figures from Singapore Population White Paper (2013)

4. Singapore Population• Singaporeans’ Response

to Immigration– General discontentment– Rise of “xenophobic”

(anti-foreigner) sentiments

– Complaints of overcrowding in public spaces and public transportation

Phot

os: T

rans

ition

ing.

org,

SG

AG.S

G

Above: A protest against the Population White Paper was held on 16 Feb, 2013.

THINK: What efforts are in place to help foreign

immigrants integrate into your society?

Below: A satirical poster imagining an overcrowded Singapore.

5. Alternative Families• Marriage and Divorce Trends– Singaporeans are delaying marriage. The median

age at first marriage has increased for grooms from 28 in 1990 to 30.1 years in 2012; and for brides from 25.3 in 1990 to 28 in 2012.

– The respective median age in Singapore is lower than in countries like Taiwan and Hong Kong, but higher than countries like the United States.

– From 1980 to 2012, the marriage crude rate has declined while the divorce crude rate has increased.

Statistics on Marriages and Divorces, 2012

Singapore Department of Statistics

5. Alternative Families

1980

1985

1990

1991

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1996

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1998

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.0

1.0

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10.0

Crude Marriage Rate

Crude Divorce Rate

Statistics on Marriages and Divorces, 2012 / Singapore Department of Statistics

5. Alternative Families• Alimony and Child Custody– A woman can apply for “maintenance” (alimony) from

her husband. The amount will be decided by the court and enforceable by law. The period of maintenance will continue until the woman dies or re-marries.

– Divorces that involve children are fraught with emotional issues brought about by potential custody battles over who gets to keep the children.

5. Alternative Families

• Traditional: “Family as the basic unit of society.” (From Singapore Shared Values)– Family defined as a married couple (man and wife)

living together with their children and/or their parents (one set)

• “Modern” living arrangements:– Unwed parents– Singles– Co-habitation

THINK: How do the “modern-day”

living arrangements impact on the

traditional notion of “family” and

society-at-large?

5. Alternative Families• Unwed Parent– Raising children born out of wedlock or any other

circumstances– No “Baby Bonus” • Fear of encouraging more children born out of wedlock,

and the eventual collapse of the family unit.• Budget 2013: Childcare and infantcare leave are

extended to unwed single parents for the first time.

THINK: Should all babies, including those born out wedlock, be entitled to state-financed incentives like the “Baby Bonus” scheme?

5. Alternative Families• Singles in Singapore– Besides unwed parents, singles also don’t enjoy the same

privileges as married citizens.Married Citizens Single Citizens

New Flat from HDB*

Eligible for any size flat. Not eligible except for 2-room BTO flats (introduced in 2013) subject to quota of 35%.

Resale Flat from HDB*

Eligible for any size flat. CPF Housing Grant of $30,000 or $40,000 (if the parents are living with the married couple or living within 2km) for resale flats

Eligible for up to 5-room flat. (Used to be limited to 3-room flats until rules were relaxed). CPF Singles Grant of $15,000

Age Restriction

21 35

*Income ceiling requirements apply.

THINK: Is it fair that singles are treated differently from married citizens?