11
Population Out-migration and Population Out-migration and Upstate Economic PerformanceUpstate Economic Performance
Prepared for: Prepared for: New York State Network for Economic Research New York State Network for Economic Research
March 30, 2005 conferenceMarch 30, 2005 conference
bybyRichard DeitzRichard Deitz
Senior EconomistSenior EconomistFederal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York,
Buffalo BranchBuffalo [email protected]
The Regional Economy of Upstate New York Newsletter is available online at:The Regional Economy of Upstate New York Newsletter is available online at:www.newyorkfed.org/research/regional_economy/upstatenews.htmlwww.newyorkfed.org/research/regional_economy/upstatenews.html
22
OverviewOverviewUpstate’s performance surrounding the Upstate’s performance surrounding the latest business cyclelatest business cycle
a longer and deeper recession than the nationa longer and deeper recession than the nation
The region’s persistent lagging growth is The region’s persistent lagging growth is primarily structuralprimarily structural
can be viewed through the lens of long-term can be viewed through the lens of long-term population out-migrationpopulation out-migration
33
Average Job Loss in Postwar RecessionsAverage Job Loss in Postwar RecessionsLocal area Peak through TroughLocal area Peak through Trough
-2.10%
-2.20%
-2.60%
-3.30%
-4.20%
-4.30%
-5.80%
US
Albany
Rochester
Syracuse
Binghamton
Utica
Buffalo
Source: U.S. Department of Labor
44
Job Loss in the Last RecessionJob Loss in the Last RecessionLocal area Peak through Local TroughLocal area Peak through Local Trough
-5.5%
-3.1%
-4.4%
-3.2%
-2.1%
-1.4%
US
Albany
Rochester
Syracuse
Binghamton
Utica
Buffalo
Source: U.S. Department of Labor
-7.3%
55
Employment Has Not Yet Recovered Employment Has Not Yet Recovered Local Area Peak to PresentLocal Area Peak to Present
U.S.
Albany
Buffalo
Syracuse
Utica
Rochester
Binghamton
Source: U.S. Department of Labor
- 7.3%
- 5.4%
- 2.8%
- 2.1%
-2.0 %
0.6%
0%
66
Extended Job Losses & Sluggish GainsExtended Job Losses & Sluggish Gains Recession and Recovery TimingRecession and Recovery Timing
U.S.
Albany
Syracuse
Buffalo
Utica
Rochester
Binghamton
Source: U.S. Department of Labor
- 7.3
- 5.5
- 4.4
- 3.2
- 3.1
- 1.4
- 2.1
0.1
1.6
1.2
1.1
2.1
2.1
1/2001 1/2002 1/2003 1/2004 1/2005
77
Industry Gainers and LosersIndustry Gainers and LosersAggregate of Upstate Metro Areas, Peak to presentAggregate of Upstate Metro Areas, Peak to present
-26.7%
-9.0%
-5.3%
-1.9%
2.6%
3.0%
5.0%
6.1%Education & Health Services
Financial Activities
Government
Leisure and Hospitality
Professional & Business Services
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
Information
Manufacturing
Source: U.S. Department of Labor
88
Long-term Long-term Population Out-migrationPopulation Out-migration
99
Population Trends
100
200
300
400
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Source: US Census Bureau
Index: 1990 = 100
US
Upstate
1010
The Population is MigratingThe Population is Migratingpopulation growth, 1970-2000population growth, 1970-2000
Percent Change
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
1111
Population Change: 1970-2003Population Change: 1970-2003
40%
21%
9%
7%
2%
-7%
-8%
-11%
-13%
-14%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Syracuse
Albany
Glens Falls
US
Rochester
Binghamton
Jamestown
Elmira
Utica
Buffalo
1212
People Follow Jobs &People Follow Jobs &Jobs Follow PeopleJobs Follow People
Jobs have migrated south and west Jobs have migrated south and west manufacturing has shifted to low cost and non-manufacturing has shifted to low cost and non-unionized areas, services have followedunionized areas, services have followed
People have moved to high amenity areasPeople have moved to high amenity areaswarmer weather to the south and westwarmer weather to the south and westcultural attractions in large metro areascultural attractions in large metro areas
Once begun, people follow jobs and jobs Once begun, people follow jobs and jobs follow peoplefollow people
likely to perpetuate and build momentumlikely to perpetuate and build momentum
1313
Population Change &Population Change &Out-MigrationOut-Migration
1414
Population Growth = (Births – Deaths) + (In-movers – Out-movers)
Natural Increase Net Migration
Net DomesticMigration
Net InternationalMigration
Estimating Out-migrationEstimating Out-migration
1515
Population Growth = (Births – Deaths) + (In-movers – Out-movers)
Net Migration
Net DomesticMigration*
Net InternationalMigration*
+1.8% +8.3%
-6.5%
-9.2% +2.7%
* estimated; assumes upstate NY emigration is negligible
Estimating Out-migrationEstimating Out-migration
1980-2002
1616
Population Change: 1980-2002Population Change: 1980-2002
-7.0%
-6.9%
-6.5%
-6.0%
-4.5%
1.4%
6.5%
7.1%
14.3%
Syracuse
Albany
Glens Falls
Rochester
Binghamton
Jamestown
Elmira
Utica
Buffalo
U.S. Population Growth: 27%
1717
Net Migration: 1980-2002Net Migration: 1980-2002
-12.8%
-12.3%
-12.1%
-10.5%
-10.4%
-6.3%
-0.1%
7.7%
-11.5%
Note: Net migration is population growth minus (births-deaths)
Syracuse
Albany
Glens Falls
Rochester
Binghamton
Jamestown
Elmira
Utica
Buffalo
Net migrationPopulation growth
1818
Out-Migration is More Severe Among the YoungOut-Migration is More Severe Among the Youngpopulation growth, 1980-2000population growth, 1980-2000
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
0-19 20-34 35-54 55-64 65+
U.S. UpstateSource: U.S. Census Bureau
1919
… … Leading to A Disparate Age DistributionLeading to A Disparate Age Distribution
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1980 20000
5
10
15
20
25
30
1980 2000
Percent of Population, Age 20-34 Percent of Population, Age 65+
U.S UpstateSource: U.S. Census Bureau
2020
All Upstate Metros Older than TypicalAll Upstate Metros Older than Typical(Percent of Population 65 and over)(Percent of Population 65 and over)
12.4
12.9
13.3
14.3
15.7
15.8
16.5
U.S. Metro Median
Rochester
Syracuse
Albany
Binghamton
Buffalo
Utica
Source: US Bureau of the Census
2121
ConclusionsConclusionsThe last recession was somewhat longer The last recession was somewhat longer and deeper for upstate NYand deeper for upstate NYLong-term out-migration is contributing to Long-term out-migration is contributing to the region’s slow economic growththe region’s slow economic growthOut-migration is also aging the region’s Out-migration is also aging the region’s population faster than averagepopulation faster than averageOut-migration trends and impacts needs to Out-migration trends and impacts needs to be considered as part of economic policy be considered as part of economic policy decisionsdecisions