Post Emory Ptix

8/16/2019 Post Emory Ptix

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Stefan Bauschard January 29, 2015 Politics

TPA............................................................................................................................................. 3TPA U.............................................................................................................................. ........ 4TPA U/PC Key........................................................................................................................ . 6U – Obama Pushing.............................................................................................................. 12

A2: Keystone......................................................................................................................... 13 A2: Ian !an"tions Thum#e.................................................................................................. 16 A2: TPA not $2 #i%ot...............................................................................................................1&TPA – Asia 'as Im#a"t................................................................................................. ....... 1(

A2: )o ta*e *ea+s................................................................................................................. 2, A2: )o TPP............................................................................................................................ 23

Ian............................................................................................................................................ 24!he++....................................................................................................................................... 2-U......................................................................................................................................... 31Ian To# o the Agen*a........................................................................................................... 4,PC U/I0.................................................................................................................................. 42

A2: !tu"tua+ io+en"e...................................................................................................... .... 43Im#a"t tensions......................................................................................................... ........ 44Po+i Im#a"t........................................................................................................................... -,!an"tions Ki++ the Cuent ea+.............................................................................................. -2

A2: )o ote......................................................................................................................... .. -4 A2: 2,16................................................................................................................................ -- A2: )o ea+........................................................................................................................... -& A2: ea+ 5a*/oesnt !to# Po+i........................................................................................... 64 A2: TPA.................................................................................................................................. 6( A2: )ee* !an"tions............................................................................................................... &1Ian A 5a"$goun*...............................................................................................................&4eto O%ei*e Thesho+*........................................................................................................ &-

7itmo......................................................................................................................................... &6!he++....................................................................................................................................... &&

Keystone................................................................................................................................... &8 Aimati%e................................................................................................................................. (2

Oshoe Oi+ Push Thum#e................................................................................................... (3

5i#atisanshi# )U..................................................................................................................(4Thum#es.............................................................................................................................. (-

AU9 Ans;es...................................................................................................................... (&emo"at Unity )U................................................................................................................((


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TPA

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TPA U

Obama revived TPA push, its his top priority—political capital determinespassage

A+e Rogers> Time 9aga?ine> 1/21/1-> @ees the One !tate o the Union Ta+$ing PointD sai* Obama. That ;ou+* #ut ou ;o$es an* businesses at a *isa*%antage. 'hy shou+* ;e +et thatha##enE 'e shou+* ;ite those u+es. 'e shou+* +e%e+ the #+aying ie+*.D Im the ist one to a*mit that #ast ta*e *ea+sha%ent a+;ays +i%e* u# to the hy#e> an* thats ;hy ;e%e gone ate "ounties that bea$ the u+es at ou e#ense>D a**e*Obama> ;ho eane* a bie "hee om *emo"ati" so"ia+ist emont !en. 5enie !an*es beoe "ontinuing. 5ut 8-F othe ;o+*s "ustomes +i%e outsi*e ou bo*es> an* ;e "ant "+ose ouse+%es o om those o##otunities. 9oe than ha+o manua"tuing ee"uti%es ha%e sai* theye a"ti%e+y +oo$ing at binging Bobs ba"$ om China. 0ets gi%e them one moe

eason to get it *one.D Thee ae e; aeas o ageement bet;een Obama an* the ne; sai* that the ta*e ta+$ ;as #obab+y one o the bightest s#ot sD an*the most #omising #atD o the s#ee"h. Othe to# Pesi*ent 5i++ C+inton +e* an a++out #ush to get the massi%e )oth Amei"a ta*e *ea+ thoughCongess. Thee ;ee a"etoa"e 'hite @ouse meetings ;ith Congessmen> 'hite @ouse en%oys oaming the @i++> an*3& Comme"e e#atment e#ots tageting in*usties om "om#utes to autos>D a""o*ing to a Chistian !"ien"e9onito e#ot> that he+#e* sho; Congessmen ho; )ATA ;ou+* he+# thei "onstituents. In O"tobe o that yea> omeCO o the Chys+e Co#oation> 0ee Ia"o""a> stoo* on the 'hite @ouse !outh 0a;n ;ith hun*e*s o #o*u"ts an*businessmenJ touting ;hat the A*ministation be+ie%e* ;ou+* thi%e un*e )ATA. Un*e the ;hite tents> C+inton Bo$e* to

a #ota*e union man that he ;ou+* ;ea the mans "om#any hat i he ga%e a s#ee"h. A month +ate> the @ouse #asse*the bi++ in a suea$e an* the !enate *i* shot+y theeate. This time aoun*> ;hi"h ;ou+* a++o; +imite*

"ongessiona+ *ebate> no amen*ments> an* an u#o*o;n %ote. The A*ministation says su"h a bi++ is %ita+ to #assTPP> as "ounties ;ou+* be +ess ;i++ing to negotiate i they $ne; Congess "ou+* ma$e +age "hanges to the *ea+. 5ut+ibea+s ae +i%i* ;ith Obamas ta*e ta+$L they set u# a #ess "oneen"e 'e*nes*ay to ai out thei "on"ens.The ty#i"a+ business #+an in this "ounty be"ause o ta*e an* ta #o+i"ies: =ou shut *o;n #o*u"tion in C+e%e+an* an*you mo%e it to 5eiBing an* se++ the #o*u"ts ba"$ to the Unite* !tates>D sai* Ohio !en. !heo* 5o;n ate the !tate othe Union. That ma$es no sense. An* hes ;ong on that as his #e*e"essos ;ee.D I you thin$ that #e%ious ta*eageements. . . ha%e *one ;e++> you shou+* su##ot the TPP>D sai* !an*es. 5ut i you be+ie%e> as I *o> that they ha%ebeen *isastous> that they ha%e "ost us mi++ions o *e"ent #aying Bobs> then it ma$e no sense to go o;a* in a ai+e*#o+i"y an* it shou+* be *eeate*. . . . At the en* o the *ay> among many othe "on"ens> Amei"an ;o$es ae going tobe o"e* to "om#ete against #eo#+e in ietnam ;ho ma$e a minimum ;age o -6 "ents an hou.D !ti++ #ota*e

+a;ma$es +i$e emo"ati" 9issoui !en. C+aie 9"Cas$i++ be+ie%e that Obama can bring “enough”

Dem ocrat s to pass a “ast-track ” trade bill . emo"ati" 9ay+an* !enato 5en Ca*in>;ho su##ote* the )oth Amei"an ee Ta*e Ageement in 1883 but o##ose* the moe e"ent ta*e ageement bi++s ;ith

!outh Koea> Panama an* Co+umbia> sai* Obama #probably$ has the votes no! to pass a TPA billthrough %ongress> a+though its easie in the !enate than @ouse> ;hee some "onse%ati%es ha%e a+so aise* an

u#oa about gi%ing moe #o;e to the Pesi*ent. The &hite 'ouse has recently increased its

outreach eforts > tas$ing e%ey Cabinet membe to *i%%y u# an* taget (, @ouse

emo"ats> a""o*ing to the @i++ ne;s#a#e. In an emai+ 'e*nes*ay> Comme"e !e"etay Penny Pit?$e to+* TI9

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that the trade agenda is a # top priority $ (or the Administration. 'e ae ta$ing an Ma++

han*son*e"$ a##oa"h to getting this *one>D she sai*. 'e ae a++ out ta+$ing not on+y to membes oCongess but to business +ea*es an* ;o$es aoun* the "ounty> te++ing the stoy o ;hy ta*e an* e#otsmatte.D

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TPA UP! "ey

Obama #ill secure TPA #ith an all-out push

a%i* )a$amua> 12&1-> 'ashington Post> Citi"a+ o Obamas #ast a"tions> 7OP no; ;ants togi%e him moe #o;e on ta*eL !enate inan"e Committee ChaimanOin 7. @at"h the #o"ess emains aught ;ith un"etainty. emo"ats> ogani?e* +aboan* en%ionmenta+ gou#s ha%e "ite* numeous "on"ens o%e the ta*e #a"t an* ;ane* thatCongess "annot ao* to e+inuish any o its o%esight #o;es on a massi%e *ea+ ;hennegotiations ha%e +age+y been $e#t hi**en om the #ub+i" %ie;. I anything> 7OP +ea*es sai*>the real outreach on trade !ill be (or Obama to convince s0eptical members o( his o!nparty both sides agree that a small number o( emocratic votes !ill be needed to ensurepassage o( a (asttrac0 bill. Potestes inteu#te* the !enate heaing Tues*ay moning>shouting an* ho+*ing signs against the ta*e *ea+s an* astta"$ authoity beoe @at"h o*ee*them emo%e* om the oom. 0ast ;ee$> e%en though he sai* he emains o#enmin*e* about the Pa"ii" ta*e #a"t itse+. Congess must

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maintain ou +e%eage> he sai* in a bieing o e#otes. 'atch has been !or0ing !ith !en.'atch said at Tues*ayNs heaing. !im#+y #ut> ta*e means Bobs.Congess estab+ishe* ta*e #omotion authoity in 18&4 to gi%e the #esi*ent tem#oay #o;eso a *eine* #eio* in ho#es o binging "om#+i"ate* ta*e *ea+s to "om#+etion moe ui"$+y>;ithout subBe"ting them to en*+ess *ebates an* #essue om inteest gou#s.The #o;e ;as most e"ent+y gante* to ome #esi*ent 7eoge '. 5ush om 2,,2 though2,,&> an* the Obama a*ministation ;as ab+e to use the astta"$ #o%ision to he+# "+ose eeta*e ageements ;ith !outh Koea> Co+ombia an* Panama in 2,11> be"ause the negotiationsha* begun *uing 5ushNs tenue.0ast yea> the 'hite @ouse +aun"he* a *i%e to ene; the astta"$ authoity in ho#es oina+i?ing the Pa"ii" ta*e #a"t> ;hi"h Obama has "a++e* a $ey e+ement o his boa*e stategy toeo"us U.!. oeign #o+i"y on Asia. 5ut then!enate 9aBoity 0ea*e @ay the+egis+ation ;ou+* be ;itten to in"+u*e a +ist o s#e"ii" negotiating #ioities an* obBe"ti%es togui*e the a*ministation an* euiements o negotiatos to e#ot to Congess.

Obama #ill secure TPA $ P! is key'adar, The Business Times .ingapore, 1415 0eon> ome esea"h e++o;;ith the Cato Institute> "ontibuting e*ito o The Amei"an Conse%ati%e an* a egu+a"ontibuto to Choni"+es an* Ph.. omthe !"hoo+ o Intenationa+ !e%i"e !I!J at Amei"an Uni%esity> Obama to be the ta*e#esi*entE>D +eis> a""esse* 1131-JT@ "uent conventional !isdom in &ashington goes something li0e this6 Both the.enate and the 'ouse o thus ma0ing it 7uite li0ely that no ma8or legislation!ill be enacted be(ore the ne)t president is s!orn into o((ice in 2914" In theoy> the e%o$ing 9 ObamaNs most signii"ant +egis+ati%e a"hie%ement> the Ao*ab+e Cae A"t o Obama"ae. 5ut 9 Obama "ou+* an* ;ou+* #obab+y su""ee* in %etoing this an* simi+a#o#ose* 7OP +egis+ation. 9oe +i$e+y> he ;i++ "ontinue using his ee"uti%e #o;e that a++o;s him to *e"ee u+es ;ithout"ongessiona+ "onsent. An*> in*ee*> *es#ite heat *isease an* #ematue *eath. But contrary to this conventional

!isdom, there is a better than %& per cent chance that the emocratic

&hite 'ouse and Republican %ongress could secure the passage o( ma8or > e%enhistoi"> legislation in the (orm o( t!o groundbrea0ing global trade deals in 2915> theTansPa"ii" Patneshi# TPPJ ;ith Asian nations an* the Tansat+anti" Ta*e an* In%estment Patneshi# TTIPJ ;iththe uo#ean Union UJ. An* to ma$e things e%en moe inteesting> 9 ObamaNs *e"ision to noma+ise *i#+omati"e+ations ;ith Cuba nee*s to be o++o;e* this yea ;ith a mo%e by Congess to o%etun the U! ta*e embago on Cubaan* eo#en ta*e e+ations ;ith the Caibbean is+an*nation. Othe;ise the t;o "ounties ;ou+* ha%e embassies in ea"h

otheNs "a#ita+ but Amei"an "om#anies an* in%estos ;ou+*nNt be ab+e to *o business in Cuba. In*ee*> as 9 Obamasettles bac0 to !or0 a(ter his vacation in 'a!aii and the ne!ly elected la!ma0ersget ready to be s!orn in this month, one can already sense the political tension in

the air in &ashington, the 0ind that arises be(ore big things are about to

happen' 5ut unli0e during the last si) years !hen the ma8or political (ights pitted

9 Obama against his Republican detractors on %apitol 'ill, an* that +e*> among othe things>to the shut*o;n o the e*ea+ go%enment> the coming legislative game o( brin0manship overglobal trade policy !ill be bet!een t!o strange coalitions o( adversaries6 an a)iso( proponents o( trade liberalisation that !ould bring together 9 Obama and

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Republican congressional leaders versus the ma8ority o( congressionalemocrats !ho have ma8or reservations about the proposed trade deals. The *ebateo%e +iting o the ta*e embago on Cuba "ou+* ma$e o e%en o**e be*e++o;s> ;ith +et;ing emo"ats an* #obusiness aguing that not un+i$eothe ta*e *ea+s> it ;ou+* beneit the big "o#oations an* aise thei #oits but ;ou+* $i++ many Amei"an Bobs an* hut

membes o the mi**+e "+ass an* ;o$ing #eo#+e. A""o*ing to e#ots> 9 Obama has told the BusinessRoundtable that he !as committed to actively pushing (or trade deals, even i( thatcould mean a (ight !ith his traditional emocratic allies, and that he !ascon(ident that the TPP, as !ell as the TT;P, could be concluded and approved in

2915. In a"t> most &ashington insiders agree that #hen it comes to trade

policy( it)s no# - in *&+% - or ne,er > since it !ould be impossible to get an

agreement bet!een the &hite 'ouse and %ongress on trade in 291< during anelection year " . Ta*e Re#esentati%e 9i"hae+ =roman has insisted *uing e"ent #ub+i" an* me*iaa##eaan"es that he !as con(ident the TPP and the rest o( the &hite 'ouse-s trade

agenda !as attainable, creating the impression that the political momentum

#as no# on the side o the ree trade s. 9 =roman-s optimism is based in

part on the assumption that !ith the ma8ority control o( both houses o( %ongressshi(ting in 2915 to the Republicans, it-s more li0ely that 9 Obama !ould begranted a ta*e #omotion authoity TPAJ a$a ast ta"$> !hich allo!s the &hite 'ouse to

negotiate and conclude trade deals and then bring them be(ore %ongress (or anupordo!n vote as o##ose* to %oting o o against ea"h "+ause o a #o#ose* ta*e *ea+> thus ensuing that it

;ou+* be $i++e* in the #o"essJ. The consensus in ashington is that not!ithstanding

their hostility to!ards the current &hite 'ouse occupant, the Republican leadersin %ongress !ould be able to muster the support o( enough Republicans in the

'ouse and the .enate plus a (e! centrist emocrats to get the TPA

appro,ed soon er than later' ;-ve got a lot o( members !ho believe that

international trade agreements are a !inner (or America and the president and ;discussed that right be(ore ; came over here" ; thin0 he-s interested in moving(or!ard" I sai*> Nsen* us ta*e ageements> ;eNe anious to +oo$ at themN> the ne! .enate >a8ority?eader, Republican 9it"h >c%onnell om Kentu"$y> said e"ent+y.

.omentum or passage is building $ Obama is #hipping,otes in line no# and #ill ratchet up the push #ith the/tate o the UnionThomas, ;nside "." Trade, 11515 a%i*> 'hite @ouse !ets U# 'hi# O#eationo TPA In%o+%ing !enio Oi"ia+s>D o+. 33> )o. 2> htt#://insi*eta*e."om/Insi*eU!Ta*e/Insi*eU.!.Ta*e,1/16/2,1-/;hitehousesetsu#;hi#o#eationot#ain%o+%ingseniooi"ia+s/menui*1&2.htm+> a""esse* 11-1-> C99J

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Un*e the +ea*eshi# o )ationa+ "onomi" Coun"i+ ie"to He ients, the &hite 'ouse has set up anoperation o( senior o((icials see0ing to garner votes (or a astta"$ o Ta*e Pomotion Authoity TPAJ bi++> a""o*ing to inome* sou"es. This operation, !hich began in ecember andis ongoing, involves %abinet o((icials assigned to reach out to emocraticla!ma0ers perceived as gettable votes, outside interest groups, and (ormergovernment o((icials, they sai*. "." Ta*e Re#esentati%e 9i"hae+ =roman is involved in the

e((ort> but ientsN #ominen"e is ne"essay be"ause oman is a+so o"use* on "+osing the TansPa"ii" Patneshi#TPPJ *ea+> one sou"e sai*. A""o*ing to !en. Hohn Conyn oman has in*i"ate* to senatos that TPP "ou+* be;a##e* u# in t;o months see e+ate* stoyJ. The a*ministation has a"uies"e* to an* congressional Republicans hope to release a bill inearly =ebruary> sou"es sai*. Republicans are a+so setting a target (or (inalcongressional passage by the end o( >arch> but some sou"es "aution that this is %ey ambitious an*note* that no im *e"ision has been ma*e on the time+ine. A proTPA lobbyist described the activityas a 3!hip e((ort3 that is targeting emocratic la!ma0ers !ho realistically !ouldvote (or a TPA bill. In +ate Hu+y> Pesi*ent Obama discussed his trade agenda !ith a groupo( 12 protrade 'ouse emocrats that are seen as gettable TPA votes> the maBoity o

;hom ae membes o the )e; emo"at Coa+ition. The sou"e note* that this operation sho#s the

administration really #ants to see a ast-track bill appro,ed > #ati"u+a+y

since it is a departure rom its other#ise hands-of legislati,e

approach . %abinetlevel o((icials are attending bi!ee0ly meetings along !ith

&hite 'ouse advisers li0e a+eie @arrett, !hile deputies meet !ee0ly on the TPAe((ort" %abinet o((icials involved in this operation have been assigned certainla!ma0ers or groups to !hom they are to reach out to on TPA. The s#e"ii" assignment "an*e#en* on a gi%en +a;ma$eNs inteest in ta*e> o on an eisting e+ationshi# bet;een an oi"ia+ an* a +a;ma$e. oinstan"e> !e"etay o !tate Hohn Key "ou+* ea"h out to a emo"ati" +a;ma$e ;ho has an inteest in oeign #o+i"y.9u+ti#+e sou"es sai* the seuen"ing o ;hi"h "hambe ;i++ mo%e ist on a TPA bi++ has not yet been *e"i*e*> a+ though

one inome* sou"e sai* there is a good chance that the .enate =inance %ommittee !ill0ic0 o(( the action !ith a mar0up" That !ould be (ollo!ed by a 'ouse &ays >eans %ommittee mar0up, 'ouse (loor action, and .enate (loor action" Thisscenario> ;hi"h has +ong been +oate* by TPA a*%o"ates> !ould be bene(icial to supporters

because a (asttrac0 bill is e)pected to garner more emocratic support in=inance than in &ays >eans" As a result, having =inance go (irst !ould build

more momentum (or passage !hile also providing political co,er or

0ouse Democrats to support a TPA bill. One #ossib+e scenario !ould then be (or

&ays >eans and the 'ouse as !hole to pass a clean TPA bill that !ould beamended in the .enate !ith other trade legislation such as the 7enea+i?e* !ystem oPeeen"es an* #otentia++y Ta*e A*Bustment Assistan"e TAA" Then the 'ouse and .enate !ouldhold a con(erence to hammer out a compromise version, !hich as a con(erencereport !ould have to be approved by both chambers in an upordo!n vote" This

approach could reduce di,isi,eness in the 0ouse 1OP because it !ould

avoid a contentious (loor debate over TAA> sin"e the @ouse ;ou+* ne%e "onsi*e TAA in anamen*ab+e ta*e bi++> but on+y as #at o a "oneen"e e#ot. 5ut it "ou+* a+so "ause a ba"$+ash om the 7OP an$s ;ho

might esent not ha%ing the "han"e to amen* TAA> sou"es s#e"u+ate*. The &hite 'ouse push couldratchet up in the near (uture, such as in Obama-s .tate o( the nion a**ess on @an"29. One in*usty sou"e s#e"u+ate* that the administration has 0ept this operation 7uiet so asnot to preempt a #ossib+e announcement on TPA by Obama during the address. Theydon-t !ant to steal the president-s thunder > he sai*. @e sai* he e)pected to hear moreabout the &hite 'ouse e((ort publicly a(ter the .tate o( the nion, and that

Obama #ould subseuent+y ratchet up his public support o TPA'


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5a*y Brady

emphasi+ed that 7roman can)t ad,ocate or TPA on his o#n' ; thin0 it-s

going to ta0e an allhandsondec0 approach by the president and the %abinet"And i( they do that, there-s actually no 7uestion that this !ill succeed> he a**e*. U.!"%hamber o( %ommerce President Thomas onohue a+so pinned his hopes on Obamabeing 3very aggressive3 on TPA in the .tate o( the nion address. !#ea$ing at a Han. 14#ess "oneen"e> onohue said the president has 3begun to ma0e it clear > ist o a++> to hiso!n team that he !ants the %abinet and others up there !or0ing on this. INm ho#eu+that heN++ be %ey aggessi%e on it at the !tate o the Union. onohue "a++e* on Obama to ea++y ight o RTPAS> es#e"ia++ybeoe membes o his o;n #aty *uing the ChambeNs annua+ !tate o Amei"an 5usiness a**ess. 5ut he a**e* that

Obama !ill have to 3spend some time assuring Republicans o( !hat DTPAE isgoing to lead to "3 But Obama-s tas0 o( !rangling emocrats to support TPA !illnot be easy> a""o*ing to 5u"e Hosten> the ChambeNs ee"uti%e %i"e #esi*ent o go%enment aais. 'eestimated that there are 3299 good Republican votes (or this, but you !ant somebalance Din the (inal vote countE"3 'e added that both 'ouse and .enateRepublican leaderships are determined to rene! TPA" At the same time> ho;e%e> onohueinsiste* *uing the #ess "oneen"e o++o;ing his s#ee"h that there are enough votes in %ongress to

get TPA passed" 3&e believe there are plenty ( plenty o ,otes to get this

done ' ; believe !e !ill get it done> he sai*.

TPA #ill pass---Obama is ratcheting up pressure and Dems#ill get on board---but political capital is key;nside . Trade 1/1 '@IT @OU! !T! UP '@IP OPD +eisUn*e the +ea*eshi# o )ationa+ "onomi" Coun"i+ ie"to He ients> the &hite 'ouse has set u# an o#eation o senio oi"ia+s see$ing to gane %otes o aastta"$ o Ta*e Pomotion Authoity TPAJ bi++> a""o*ing to inome* sou"es. This o#eation> ;hi"h began in e"embe an* is ongoing> in%o+%es Cabinet oi"ia+s assigne* to ea"h out toemo"ati" +a;ma$es #e"ei%e* as gettab+e %otes> outsi*e inteest gou#s> an* ome go%enment oi"ia+s> they sai*. U.!. Ta*e one sou"e sai*. A""o*ing to !en. Hohn Conyn oman has

in*i"ate* to senatos that TPP "ou+* be ;a##e* u# i n t;o months see e+ate* stoyJ. The a*ministation has a"uies"e* to an* "ongessiona+ ;hi+e *e#uties meet ;ee$+y on the TPA eot. Cabinet oi"ia+s in%o+%e* in this o#eation ha%e been assigne* "etain +a;ma$es o gou#s to ;hom they ae toea"h out to on TPA. The s#e"ii" assignment "an *e#en* on a gi%en +a;ma$eNs inteest i n ta*e> o on an eisting e+ationshi# bet;een an oi"ia+ an* a +a;ma$e. o instan"e> !e"etay o

!tate Hohn Key "ou+* ea"h out to a emo"ati" +a;ma$e ;ho has an inteest in oeign #o+i"y. 9u+ti#+e sou"es sai* the seuen"ing o ;hi"h "hambe ;i++ mo%e ist on a TPA bi++ has not yet

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been *e"i*e*> a+though one inome* sou"e sai* there is a good chance that the .enate =inance %ommittee!ill 0ic0 o(( the action ;ith a ma$u#. That ;ou+* be o++o;e* by a @ouse 'ays 9eans Committee ma$u#> @ouse +oo a"tion> an* !enate +oo a"tion. This

s"enaio> ;hi"h has +ong been +oate* by TPA a*%o"ates> #ould be bene5cial to su##otes because a (asttrac0 bill is

e)pected to garner more Democratic support in 7inance than in 'ays 9eans. As a esu+t>

having =inance go (irst !ould build moe momentum or passage !hile a+so

providing political co,er (or 'ouse em ocrat s to support a TPA bi++. One #ossib+e s"enaio ;ou+* thenbe o 'ays 9eans an* the @ouse as ;ho+e to #ass a "+ean TPA bi++ that ;ou+* be a men*e* in the !enate ;ith othe ta*e +egis+ation su"h as the 7enea+i?e* !ystem o Peeen"es an*#otentia++y Ta*e A*Bustment Assistan"e TAAJ. Then the @ouse an* !enate ;ou+* ho+* a "oneen"e to hamme out a "om#omise %esion> ;hi"h as a "oneen"e e#ot ;ou+* ha%e to be

a##o%e* by both "hambes in an u#o*o;n %ote. This approach could reduce di,isi,eness in the 'ouse

*OP because it !ould a,oid a contentious (loor debate over TAA> sin"e the @ouse ;ou+* ne%e"onsi*e TAA in an amen*ab+e ta*e bi++> but on+y as #at o a "oneen"e e#ot. 5ut it "ou+* a+so "ause a ba"$+ash om the 7OP an$s ;ho might esent not ha%ing the "han"e to amen* TAA>

sou"es s#e"u+ate*. The &hite 'ouse push could ratchet up in the near uture > su"h as inObamaNs !tate o the Union a**ess on Han. 2,. One in*usty sou"e s#e"u+ate* that the a*ministation has $e#t this o#eation uiet so as not to #eem#t a #ossib+e announ"ement on TPA by

Obama *uing the a**ess. They *onNt ;ant to stea+ the #esi*entNs thun*e> he sai*. @e sai* he e#e"te* to hea moe about the 'hite @ouse eot #ub+i"+y ate the !tate o the Union> an*that Obama ;ou+* subseuent+y at"het u# his #ub+i" su##ot o TPA. 5a*y em#hasi?e* that oman "anNt a*%o"ate o TPA on his o;n. I thin$ it)s

going to take an all-hands-on-deck approach by the president an* the Cabinet.

And i( they do that, there-s a"tua++y no 3uestion that this #ill succeed > he a**e*. U.!.Chambe o Comme"e Pesi*ent Thomas onohue a+so #inne* his ho#es on Obama being %ey aggessi%e on TPA in the !tate o the Union a**ess. !#ea$ing at a Han. 14 #ess "oneen"e>onohue sai* the #esi*ent has begun to ma$e it "+ea> ist o a++> t o his o;n team that he ;ants the Cabinet an* othes u# thee ;o$ing on this. INm ho#eu+ that heN++ be %ey aggessi%e on it at

the !tate o the Union. onohue called on Obama to 3 really 5ght or 9TPA:( es#e"ia++y beoe membes o his

o;n #aty *uing the ChambeNs annua+ !tate o Amei"an 5usiness a**ess. 5ut he a**e* that Obama !ill have to 3spend some time

assuring 8epublicans o( !hat DTPAE is going to lead to. 5ut ObamaNs tas$ o ;ang+ing emo"ats to

su##ot TPA ;i++ not be easy> a""o*ing to 5u"e Hosten> the ChambeNs ee"uti%e %i"e #esi*ent o go%enment aais. @e estimate* that thee ae 2,, goo* ho;e%e> onohue insiste* *uing

the #ess "oneen"e o++o;ing his s#ee"h that there are enough ,otes in !ongress to get TPA

passed' 'e be+ie%e thee ae #+enty> #+enty o %otes to get this *one. I be+ie%e ;e ;i++ get it *one> he sai*.

11


12/94


U $ Obama Pushing

Obama pushing TPA

i"$i Feedham, 12G1-> The @i++> )e; emo"ats 'ant Assuan"es on Paty !u##ot oTa*e>D htt#://thehi++."om/#o+i"y/inan"e/231,(2ne;*emo"ats;antassuan"eson#atysu##otonta*e OA: 1281-For his part, U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman reiterated during hearings Tuesday on

Capitol Hill the Obama administration’s commitment to convincing Democrats to back fast-track

and the trade deals. He referred to the “whole-government approach” of building support, which

includes a full-court press from the president’s Cabinet. In fact, the Obama administration’s two-year

long campaign to get trade-friendly Democrats on board is working, a House Democratic aide said. Rep.

Ron Kind of Wisconsin, chairman of the New Democrats, has been outspoken in advocating for a new way

to negotiate trade agreements while urging other members of his party to look hard at a world without the

United States leading on trade. I also think we need a proactive, aggressive trade agenda that’s going to

work for American workers and our businesses," Kind said Wednesday on C-SPAN’s Washington Journal.

12

http://thehill.com/policy/finance/231082-new-democrats-want-assurances-on-party-support-on-tradehttp://thehill.com/policy/finance/231082-new-democrats-want-assurances-on-party-support-on-tradehttp://thehill.com/policy/finance/231082-new-democrats-want-assurances-on-party-support-on-tradehttp://thehill.com/policy/finance/231082-new-democrats-want-assurances-on-party-support-on-tradehttp://thehill.com/policy/finance/231082-new-democrats-want-assurances-on-party-support-on-trade


13/94


A*; "eystone

"eystone #on !"ott> 1121-> the @i++> eto batt+es set to begin>Dhtt#://thehi++."om/homene;s/a*ministation/228116%etobatt+essettobegin> a""esse*: 11-1->CA!S

The president has been clear that there !ill be some actions by %ongress that he!ont support, 8 ust li0e some in %ongress !ill oppose steps that !e ta0e on ouro!n,$ the &hite 'ouse o((icial said" #But those disagreements should notinter(ere !ith the many areas o( bipartisan interest> li0e ta eom> trade> an*inastu"tue> !here !e can !or0 together to get things done (or the Americanpeople"$'ouse >inority ?eader )an"y Pelosi Ca+i.J also said she thought the vetostrategy could spur legislative collaboration , arguing that part o( #!or0ingtogether is to ma0e clear !here !e have common ground and !here !e do not"$

?o# oil prices mean Obama #onD htt#://;;;.;sB."om/ati"+es/obama*oubtsan*+o;egas#i"es"+ou*$eystoneutue14183(18,3> a""esse* 111-> C99JProspects (or approval o( the :eystone J? pipeline are dimming amid t!o recentdevelopments6 lo!er gasoline prices and increased s0epticism (rom Pesi*ent 5aa"$Obama, !hose administration has been revie!ing the proposed pipeline (or more

than si) years" 9. Obama last !ee0 said he had doubts the pipeline !ould bene(itthe ".", buttressing remar0s he has made publicly at least three other times sinceearly Fovember" 'e said it !ouldnt create many permanent 8obs or cut gas prices,as the #oBe"ts su##otes ha%e ague* Its %ey goo* o Cana*ian oi+ "om#anies> an* its goo* o the Cana*ian oi+in*usty> but its not going to be a huge beneit to U.!. "onsumes>D 9. Obama sai*. 9any ana+ysts say a++ing U.!. gas#i"es boost the agument o Keystone o##onents that Cana*ian oi+ isnt ne"essay ami* the "uent g+oba+ o%esu##+y.

7enea++y> the public is typically more sympathetic to prooilproduction policies!hen gasoline prices are high ,$ sai* 9i"hae+ 0e%i> a senio e++o; at the Coun"i+ on oeign D sai* !en. Hohn @oe%en )..J> a $ey!enate su##ote> the +atest ema$s. 9. @oe%en sai* he ;i++ ;o$ to ensue +egis+ation a##o%ing Keystone "+eas

Congess. Keystone Q0> ;hi"h ;ou+* sen* as many as (3,>,,, bae+s o oi+ a *ay 1>&,, mi+es om Cana*as oi+ san*sto 7u+ Coast eineies> has be"ome a +ash #oint in the nations *ebate o%e enegy in*e#en*en"e> e"onomi" go;th an*"+imate "hange. O##onents say a##o%ing the #i#e+ine ;ou+* in*i"ate the U.!. ;as *ee#ening its *e#en*en"e on ossi+ue+s. !u##otes say Keystone ;ou+* "eate thousan*s o Bobs an* is the saest ;ay to mo%e oi+ that ;ou+* othe;ise betans#ote* in +ess se"ue ;ays> su"h as by ai+. Ca+gaybase* TansCana*a Co#. in 2,,( a##+ie* o a #emit o the

#oBe"t om the !tate e#atment> ;hi"h e%ie;s "ossbo*e #i#e+ines. The administration has been!aiting (or the Febras0a .upreme %ourt to rule on a la!suit brought bylando!ners !ho challenged a state la! used to approve the pipelines path. Thatu+ing is e#e"te* in the "oming ;ee$s an* "ou+* "+ea the ;ay o the a*ministation to *e"i*e. In ma$ing its *e"isionG$no;n as the nationa+ inteest *eteminationGthe !tate e#atment "onsi*es enegy se"uity as ;e++ as en%ionmenta+>

geo#o+iti"a+ an* e"onomi" im#a"ts. Together > 9. Obamas recent comments suggest he

13

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14/94


doesnt thin0 :eystone is in the nations interest" The #esi*ent hasnt a+;ays been so #ub+i"+ys$e#ti"a+. In 9a"h 2,12> he stoo* a+ongsi*e #i#es in Cushing> O$+a.> an* sai* his a*ministation ha* a##o%e* *o?ens o oi+ an* natua+gas #i#e+ines> in"+u*ing om Cana*a. As +ong as Im #esi*ent> ;ee going to $ee# on en"ouaging oi+*e%e+o#ment an* inastu"tue an* ;ee going to *o it in a ;ay that #ote"ts the hea+th an* saety o the Amei"an

#eo#+e>D he sai* then. People (amiliar !ith >r" Obamas thin0ing say he believes thepipelines symbolic and political importance out!eighs its impact on the economyand climate change" :eystone has become bound up !ith his goal o( ma0ingclimatechange action a legacy o( his presidency" *lobal oil prices may ma0e iteasier (or him to re8ect :eystone" &hen the .tate epartment issued anenvironmental assessment in @anuary, prices !ere bet!een KLI and K119 a barrel"Fo! they are bet!een K55 and K htt#://insi*e"+imatene;s.og/ne;s/2,1-,1,8/$eystonebi++go#tagetsobamas"+imateagen*a;i++itba"$ie> OA: 1222,1-> y2$

A "eystone bill is e#e"te* to #ass Congess easi+y> ;ith some emo"ats +i$e+y to ba"$ the bi++> too. 5ut

the &hite 'ouse said the president !ould veto it be"ause he be+ie%es authoity o a##o%ing the#oBe"t +ies ;ith the !tate e#atment an* the ee"uti%e ban"h> moe boa*+yJ> an* the agen"ys e%ie; is sti++ un*e;ay.

e; obse%es e#e"t the bi++ to gane the 6& %otes nee*e* to o%ei*e the %eto. etoing the bill #on 123

2,1-> +atimes> htt#://;;;.+atimes."om/nation/+ana$eystoneamen*mentssenate%otes2,1-,123stoy.htm+> OA: 1242,1-> y2$!omething unusua+ ha##ene* in Congess this ;ee$: !enatos %ote* not Bust on"e o t;i"e> but moe than 2, times>

ight u# unti+ mi*night Thus*ay. In "ontast to the e"ent yeas o gi*+o"$ an* #aa+ysis> senators too0 vote

a(ter politically tough ,ote as they !or0ed thei !ay through a stack o

amendments to a bi++ to approve the :eystone Q0 pipeline. It ;as #at o the so"a++e* egu+ao*e that !enate 9aBoity 0ea*e 9it"h 9"Conne++ %o;e* to *e+i%e ate o"ing senatos to ta$e a a#i*ie seies o%otes ;ithout a++o;ing *is"ussion. The s"ene +e* to a;$;a* moments as emo"ati" senatos shoute* o a "han"e tobe hea*> e%en o Bust one minute. 9. Pesi*entV 9. Pesi*entV !en. * 9a$ey 9ass.J ho++ee*> tying to get the

attention o the #esi*ing oi"e. I as$ unanimous "onsent that I be a++o;e* one minute to s#ea$ on my amen*mentbeoe it is %ote* u#on. 9"Conne++ stoo* stoi"a++y at his *es$ an* uttee* the sim#+e *ebatesuashing etot> I obBe"t.

The episode became so politically to>ic > it no; threatens to *e+ay o derail

passage net ;ee$ o the "eystone bill . On i*ay> some rustrated Democrats

!ho support the pipeline are hinting they may #ithhold thei ,otes net ;ee$ toa*%an"e the +egis+ation. I thin$ e%eybo*y un*estan*s>D 9"Conne++ sai* +ate Thus*ay. 'e ha%e been on this bi++ o a;hi+e. 'e ha%e a+ea*y ha* moe o++ "a++ %otes on this bi++ than the entie !enate ha* on e%ey bi++ though the ;ho+e yea

o 2,14. I thin$ it is time that ;e stat mo%ing o;a*.D Democrats cried oul > saying >c%onnell

14


15/94


!as Bamming through the Keystone bill . They suggeste* it might ha%e something to *o ;ith theai#+anes ;aiting to ushe !ens. Te* Cu? but +age+y "ongenia+> #o"ess that $i"$e* into gea a e; *ays ago as senatosbegan %oting. It state* as a tetboo$ "ase o +egis+ating as ea"h si*e oee* thei amen*ments. Thee ;as e%en amoment o +e%ity ;hen the "hambe agee* o%e;he+ming+y> 8(1> to a emo"ati" measue that sai* sim#+y: C+imate"hange is ea+ an* not a hoa. In a++> the !enate #o"esse* 24 amen*ments> most o them om emo"ats> an*9"Conne++ a##eae* on ta"$ to ;a# u# the +esson in +egis+ating ;ith ina+ #assage o the Keystone bi++ net ;ee$. 5ut

the #i"e o Thursday-s session may be "ost+y i it soured the mood among emocrats ;ho

su##ot the #i#e+ine #oBe"t. Their votes !ill be needed 9on*ay (or a 0ey vote "


16/94


A*; 2ran /anctions Thumper

Co mo,ement on 2ran sanctions until at least .arch *

Oen oe++> 12&1-> U!A To*ay> !enate ems O##ose Ian !an"tions ote 5eoe 9a"h 24>Dhtt#://;;;.usato*ay."om/stoy/ne;s/;o+*/2,1-/,1/2&/senate*emo"atsiansan"tions/224,18&3/ OA: 1281-Democrats on the Senate Banking Committee made clear Tuesday they oppose passing a new Iran

sanctions bill, at least until a March 24 deadline for a framework agreement in the ongoing negotiations.

"We will not back a new sanctions bill at this time," said Sen. Robert Menendez, D-N.J., who co-

authored the sanctions bill with Sen. Mark Kirk, an Illinois Republican, that would impose new sanctions

if Iran fails to agree to a deal. President Obama has threatened to veto any new sanctions bill passed by the

Republican-controlled Congress. Such a bill would need Democratic support to achieve the 67 votes

needed to override a presidential veto. Menendez said he sent a letter Tuesday to Obama, together with

other Democratic co-sponsors of the bill, saying they would seek to delay any vote because they favor

giving the administration more time to reach a deal. Obama has said the U.S. will do whatever it takes

to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, but more sanctions would harm the talks.

Fox News, 1-27-15, Senate Dems Back Down on Iran,

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/01/27/senate-dems-back-down-on-iran-say-wont-support-sanctions-

bill-yet/ DOA: 1-29-15

A group of Senate Democrats on Tuesday eased off their push for new Iran sanctions, potentially

taking the wind out of the bipartisan effort to muscle through the legislation in the face of a President

Obama veto threat. In a reversal, Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., announced at a Senate committee

hearing that he and his Democratic colleagues had written to Obama telling him they would hold off

on supporting legislation that he helped write. The bill was co-authored by Republican Illinois Sen.

Mark Kirk. "We will not support passage of the Kirk-Menendez bill on the Senate floor until after

March 24, and only if there is no political framework agreement," Menendez announced.

16

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/01/27/senate-democrats-iran-sanctions/22401973/http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/01/27/senate-democrats-iran-sanctions/22401973/http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/01/27/senate-democrats-iran-sanctions/22401973/http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/01/27/senate-dems-back-down-on-iran-say-wont-support-sanctions-bill-yet/http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/01/27/senate-dems-back-down-on-iran-say-wont-support-sanctions-bill-yet/http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/01/27/senate-democrats-iran-sanctions/22401973/http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/01/27/senate-democrats-iran-sanctions/22401973/http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/01/27/senate-dems-back-down-on-iran-say-wont-support-sanctions-bill-yet/http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/01/27/senate-dems-back-down-on-iran-say-wont-support-sanctions-bill-yet/


17/94


A*; TPA not k* pi,ot

atson changed his mind&atson, trade policy analyst !ith %atos 'erbert A .tie(el %enter (or

Trade Policy .tudies, 1151IK 'i++iam> 'hat to 0oo$ o in the U#"oming Ta*e Po+i"y ebate>Dhtt#://;;;."ato.og/b+og/;hat+oo$u#"omingta*e#o+i"y*ebate> a""esse* 12214> C99J

The most im#otant #ie"e o ta*e +egis+ation Congess has *ea+t ;ith in yeas ;as into*u"e* inthe @ouse an* !enate +ast ;ee$. The 5i#atisan Congessiona+ Ta*e Pioities A"t o 2,14D setsout the #aametes o ene;ing ta*e #omotion authoity TPAJ> oigina++y $no;n as ast ta"$>Din o*e to ease e%entua+ #assage o the TansPa"ii" Patneshi# an* othe ageements thoughCongess. Thee ;i++ be a +ot o *ebate in the "oming months about ;hat U.!. ta*e #o+i"y shou+*+oo$ +i$e> an* this TPA bi++ ;i++ *o a +ot to estab+ish the agen*a. The ne; bi++ +age+y mios the+ast TPA gant in 2,,2. The basi" i*ea o ast ta"$ is that Congess agees to ho+* an u#o*o;n%ote on any ta*e ageement submitte* by the #esi*ent> ;hi+e the #esi*ent agees to a*o#t aseies o negotiating obBe"ti%es +ai* out by Congess. I%e e#+aine* beoe ;hy I thin$ TPA is notne"essay ight no; to get ageements though Congess an* ;hy it "ou+* e%en ma$e the TPP

negotiations moe *ii"u+t. 0o#e,er ( that argument is temporarily moot

since this TPA bill is on the table and #ill apply not only to the TPP

but to the U'/'-EU trade agreement and any orld T rade

O rganFation negotiations or the ne>t our years ' G eeat o this bi++ "ou+*

uite #ossib+y $i++ any "han"e the #esi*ent has to "on"+u*e ta*e ageements beoe the en* ohis tem. A+so> the negotiating obBe"ti%es in"+u*e* in the ne; bi++ ae not as ba* as I ha* eae*.

17


18/94


TPA $ Asia ars 2mpact

Asia po!er competition is the most li0ely scenario (or nuclear !ar %ampbell et al G Kut 9> Assistant !e"etay o !tate o ast Asian an* Pa"ii" Aais> . Cam#be++ se%e* inse%ea+ "a#a"ities in go%enment> in"+u*ing as e#uty Assistant !e"etay o eense o Asia an* the Pa"ii"> ie"to on

the)ationa+ !e"uity Coun"i+ !ta> #e%ious+y the Chie e"uti%e Oi"e an* "ooun*e o the Cente o a )e; Amei"an !e"uity C)A!J> se%e* as ie"to o the As#en !tategy 7ou# an* the Chaiman o the *itoia+ 5oa* othe 'ashington uate+y> an* ;as the oun*e an* Pin"i#a+ o !tatAsia> a stategi" a*%isoy "om#any o"use* on Asia>io to "ooun*ing C)A!> he se%e* as !enio i"e Pesi*ent> ie"to o the Intenationa+ !e"uity Pogam> an* the@eny A. Kissinge Chai in )ationa+ !e"uity Po+i"y at the Cente o !tategi" an* Intenationa+ !tu*ies> *o"toate inIntenationa+ ome asso"iate #oesso o #ub+i" #o+i"y an* intenationa+ e+ations atthe Hohn . Kenne*y !"hoo+ o 7o%enment an* Assistant ie"to o the Cente o !"ien"e an* Intenationa+ Aaisat @a%a* Uni%esity> membe o Coun"i+ on oeign to some *egee> se"uity. Innovating: iAsia boasts the ;o+*s mostsu""essu+ manua"tuing an* te"hno+ogy se"tos an* "ou+* stat ta$ing the +ea* in e%eythingom inan"e to nanote"h to geen te"h. Investing: Asian nations ae *e%e+o#ing inastu"tue an*human "a#ita+ at un#e"e*ente* ates. 5ut the continent remains plagued by6 ;nsecurity6*reatpo!er rivalry is alive in Asia " >assive military investments along !ithhistoric suspicions and contemporary territorial and other con(licts ma0e !ar inAsia plausible. Instabi+ity: =rom environmental degradation to violent e)tremism totra((ic0ing in drugs, people, and !eapons, Asian nations have much to !orryabout" Inequality: 'ithin nations an* bet;een them> ine7uality in Asia is more star0 thanany!here else in the !orld" ;mpoverished minorities in countries li0e ;ndia and%hina, and the gap in governance and capacity !ithin countries> ;hethe as ba"$;a* as 5uma o as a*%an"e* as !inga#oe> present uni7ue challenges. A ta*itiona+a##oa"h to Asia ;i++ not sui"e i the Unite* !tates is to both #ote"t Amei"an inteests an* he+#iAsia ea+i?e its #otentia+ an* a%oi* #ita++s. business an* the Chinese go%enment> a+ong ;ithothe Asian inan"ia+ #+ayes> inBe"te* bi++ions in "a#ita+ to he+# stea*y U.!. in%estment ban$s su"has 9ei++ 0yn"h as the Amei"an sub#ime motgage "o++a#se uno+*e*. Chinese in%estmentun*s egiona+ in*ustia+i?ation> ;hi"h in tun "eates ne; ma$ets o g+oba+ #o*u"ts. Asia no;a""ounts o o%e 4, #e"ent o g+oba+ "onsum#tion o stee+ 4 an* China is "onsuming a+most ha+ o ;o+*s a%ai+ab+e "on"ete. - )atua+ esou"es om soy to "o##e to oi+ ae being use* by

China an* In*ia at astonishing ates> *i%ing u# "ommo*ity #i"es an* setting o a+am be++s in'ashington an* othe 'esten "a#ita+s. =et Asia is not a theater at peace" On a%eage>bet;een 15 and 59 people die every day (rom causes tied to con(lict, andsuspicions rooted in rivalry and nationalism run deep" The continent harborsevery traditional and nontraditional challenge o( our age6 it is a cauldron o(religious and ethnic tension a source o( terror and e)trem ism an acceleratingdriver o( the insatiable global appetite (or energy the place !here the most people!ill su((er the adverse e((ects o( global climate change the primary source o(

nuclear proli(eration and the most likely theater on Earth (or a maBo

18

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19/94


"on%entiona+ "onontation an* e%en a nu"+ea "on+i"t " Coeisting ;ith the o#timism o iAsiaae the inge*ients o internal stri(e, nontraditional threats li0e terrorism, and

traditional interstate con(lict, !hich are all magni5ed by the risk o

miscalculation or poor decision-making .

19


20/94


21/94


to mar0ets !ith t!othirds o( global spending po!er, TPP and TT;P !ill be giantmagnetic doc0ing stations to outsiders %hina and Bra+il, aiming to revivesagging gro!th, are interested" Once this happens, the TT;PTPP superdeal !illcover G9 percent o( !orlds output and appro)imate a multilateral agreement N andhave cuttingedge common trade rules that could never be agreed in one BigBang at the &TO" !e"on*> a+so nee*e* is a shit negotiation o #+ui+atea+ ageements – boa*base*

ageements among subsets o 'TO membes no; negotiate* in ta*e in se%i"es an* in en%ionmenta+ goo*s an*se%i"es> an* #o#ose* o in%estment an* *ata se"uity> an* no; a+so o ta*e a"i+itation sans In*ia. The "oa+itions othe ;i++ing *i%ing #+ui+atea+s in"+u*e the Unite* !tates> U> Ha#an> an* many 0atin Amei"an an* Asian emegingma$ets *isi++usione* by In*ia an* its a""om#+i"es> Cuba> 5o+i%ia> an* ene?ue+a. A #i%ot in ta*e #o+iti"s> China is +oo$ingto Boin the se%i"es #+ui+atea+. P+ui+atea+s not on+y he+# Amei"an "om#anies to e#ot moeL they enab+e 'ashingtonan* its ien*s an* a++ies to "a++ the shots in g+oba+ ta*e u+ema$ing – an* iso+ate In*ia> #o%ing its #o+i"ies se+*eeating.The thi* *ea+ that is nee*e* is 'ashington Consensus II> o the g+oba+ *igita+ e"onomy. In the 188,s> the 'ashingtonConsensus set o a ;a%e o *ee# ta*e an* in%estment +ibea+i?ation a"oss the *e%e+o#ing an* #ost"ommunist ;o+*>#a%ing the ;ay o a ti*a+ ;a%e o g+oba+i?ation. The *igita+ e"onomy has no eui%a+ent. A boa* gou# o sta$eho+*esan* thought+ea*es – go%enments> intenationa+ ogani?ations> "om#anies> an* thin$tan$s – nee* to "ome togethe toati"u+ate gui*e+ines o nations beha%io in the g+oba+ *igita+ e"onomy. 7i%en its inamous "onnotations> the *igita+ *ea+"ou+* be "a++e* !eou+ ConsensusD> high+ighting Koeas +ea# to a +ea*e in *igiti?ation om a ua+ e"onomy Bust a "ou#+e

o *e"a*es ago. "." leadership is urgently needed to integrate the rapidly changingglobal trading system" ;t is time (or %ongress to step up to the plate"

1lobal trade deescalates e,ery [email protected] 291I 9iiam> isiting e++o; in the 7+oba+ "onomy an* e%e+o#ment #ogam>ome e#uty U! Ta*e 'hy Ta*e 9attes> !e#tembe 2,14>htt#://;;;.boo$ings.e*u/Y/me*ia/esea"h/i+es/#a#es/2,14/,8/;hyF2,ta*eF2,mattes/ta*eF2,g+oba+F2,%ie;sWina+.#* This #o+i"y bie e#+oes the e"onomi" ationa+e an* stategi" im#eati%e o an ambitious*omesti" an* g+oba+ ta*e agen*a om the #es#e"ti%e o the Unite* !tates. Intenationa+ ta*e is oten %ie;e*though the e+ati%e+y nao; #ism o ta*eos that might be ma*e among *omesti" se"tos o bet;een ta*ing #atnes>

but it is im #otant to "onsi*e a+so the im#a"t that in"ease* ta*e has on g+oba+ go;th> *e%e+o#mentan* se"uity. 'ith that "ontet in min*> this #a#e assesses the im#+i"ations o the AsiaPa"ii" an*uo#ean ta*e negotiations un*e;ay> in"+u*ing o "ounties that ae not #ati"i#ating but as#ieto Boin. It out+ines some o the "ha++enges that stan* in the ;ay o "om#+etion an* ;ays in ;hi"h they "an be a**esse*.It eamines ;hethe the o"us on megaegiona+ ta*e ageements "omes at the e#ense o boa*e +ibea+i?ation oa"ts as a "ata+yst to *e%e+o# highe stan*a*s than might othe;ise be #ossib+e. It "on"+u*es ;ith #o+i"y

e"ommen*ations o a"tion by go%enments> +egis+atos an* sta$eho+*es to a**ess "on"ens that ha%e been aise* an*"eate geate *omesti" su##ot. It is ai to as$ ;hethe ;e shou+* be "on"ene* about the utue o intenationa+ ta*e#o+i"y ;hen *ie *e%e+o# ments ae theatening the se"uity inteests o the Unite* !tates an* its #atnes in the 9i**+e

ast> Asia> Ai"a an* uo#e. In the 9i**+e ast > signii"ant aeas o Ia ha%e been o%eun by a toi"oshoot o A+ae*a> "i%i+ ;a in !yia ages ;ith no en* in sight> an* the Isae+iPa+estinian #ea"e#o"ess is in tattes. )u"+ea negotiations ;ith Ian ha%e un into toub+e> ;hi+e 0ibya an* gy#t a"e"ontinuing instabi+ity an* *omesti" "ha++enges. In Asia> histoi" i%a+ies an* *is#utes o%e teitoy ha%eheightene* tensions a"oss the egion> most a"ute+y by ChinaNs aggessi%e mo%es in the ! outhC hina ! ea to;a*s ietnam> Ha#an an* the Phi+i##ines. )u"+eaame* )oth Koea emains iso+ate* >e"$+ess an* un#e*i"tab+e. In Ai"a> "ounties ae stugg+ing ;ith ising teoism> %io+en"e an* "ou#tion. Inuo#e> +agging e"onomi" e"o%ey an* the suge in su##ot o etemist #aties ha%e +et #eo#+e eau+ oin"easing %io+en"e against immigants an* minoity gou#s an* s$e#ti"a+ o uthe integation. It is tem#ting to o"usso+e+y on these #essing #ob+ems an* *ee +ess ugent issuesGsu"h as oging ne; *is "i#+ines o intenationa+ ta*e

to anothe *ay> es#e"ia++y ;hen su"h issues #ose "ha++enges o thei o;n. 5ut that ;ou+* be a mista$e. A $eymoti%ation in bui+*ing geate *omesti" an* intenationa+ "onsensus o a*%an" ing ta*e+ibea+i?ation no; is #e"ise+y the o+e that geate e"onomi" integation "an #+ay in o#ening u#ne; a%enues o o##otunity o #omoting *e%e+o#ment an* in"easing e"onomi" #os#eity. !u"hinitiati%es "an he+# stabi+i?e $ey egions an* stengthen the se"uity o the Unite* !tates an* its#atnes. The +ast "entuy #o%i*es a #o;eu+ eam#+e o ho; e#an*ing ta*e e+ations "an he+#e*u"e g+oba+ tensions an* aise +i%ing stan*a*s. o++o;ing 'o+* 'a II> bui+*ing stonge e"onomi""oo#eation ;as a "ente#ie"e o a++ie* eots to ease batt+e s"as an* emba"e ome enemies .In *eeat> the e"onomies o 7emany> Ita+y an* Ha#an a"e* uin an* #eo#+e ;ee on the %ege o sta%ation. The Unite*!tates +e* eots to ebui+* uo#e an* to e#ai Ha#anNs e"onomy. A $ey e+ement o the 9asha++ P+an> ;hi"h estab+ishe*

21


22/94


the oun*ation o un#e"e*ente* go;th an* the +e%e+ o uo#ean integation that eists to*ay> ;as to e%i%e ta*e bye*u"ing tais.1 an* the easten #at o uo#e that it "onto++e*> euse* to #ati"i#ate o e"ei%e su"hassistan"e. e "a*es +ate> as the Co+* 'a en*e*> the Unite* !tates an* 'esten uo#e sought to ma$e u# o +osttime by #o%i*ing signii"ant te"hni"a+ an* inan"ia+ assistan"e to he+# integate "enta+ an* easten uo#ean "ounties;ith the est o uo#e an* the g+oba+ e"onomy. Thee ha%e been subseuent "a++s o a 9asha++ P+an o othe #ats o the ;o+*>N a+though the "on+uen"e o *e*i"ate* esou"es> "oo*inate* su##ot an* eisting "a#a"ity has been *ii"u+t to

e#+i"ate. )onethe+ess> im#o tant +essons ha%e been +eane* about the %a+uab+e o+e e"onomi"*e%e+o#ment "an #+ay in *eusing tensions> an* ho; o#ening ma$ets "an hasten go;th. Thee is again ago;ing e"ognition that e"onomi" se"uity an* nationa+ se"uity ae t;o si*es o the same "oin.7enea+ Cate @am> ;ho ste##e* *o;n is hea* o U.!. Ai"a Comman* +ast yea> obse%e* the "+ose "onne"tion

bet;een in"easing #os#eity an* bo+steing stabi+ity. uing his time in Ai"a he ha* seen that se"uity an*stabi+ity in many ;ays *e#en*s a +ot moe on e"onomi" go;th an* o##o tunity than it *oes onmi+itay stength.1 'hee #eo#+e ha%e o##otunities o themse+%es an* thei "hi+*en> he oun*> the esu+t ;as bettego%enan"e> in"ease* es#e"t o human ights an* +o;e +e%e+s o "on+i"t. uing his "onimation heaing +ast yea>!e"etay Hohn Key stesse* the +in$ bet;een e"onomi" an* nationa+ se"uity in the "ontet o the "om#etiti%eness othe Unite* !tates but the #oint a+so has boa*e a##+i"ation. Ou nation "annot be stong aboa*> he ague*> i it is not

stong at home> in"+u*ing by #utting its o;n is"a+ house in o*e. @e assete*Gight+y soGthat moe than e%eoeign #o+i"y is e"onomi" #o+i"y> #ati"u+a+y in +ight o in"easing "om#etition o g+oba+esou"es an* ma$ets. %ey *ay> he sai*> that goes by ;hee Amei"a is un"etain aboutengaging in that aena> o un;i++ing to #ut ou best oot o;a* an* ;in> un;i++ing to *em onstate ou eso+%e to+ea*> is a *ay in ;hi"h ;e ;ea$en ou nation itse+.4 !tengthening Amei"aNs e"onomi" se"uity by"ementing its e"onomi" a++ian"es is not sim#+y an o#tion> but an im#eati%e. A stong nation nee*s a stonge"onomy that "an geneate go;th> s#u inno%ation an* "eate Bobs. This is tue> o "ouse> not on+y o theUnite* !tates but a+so o its $ey #atnes an* the est o the g+oba+ ta*ing system. 9u"h as theUnite* !tates +e* the ;ay in oging stong mi+itay a++ian"es ate 'o+* 'a II to *is"ouage aesugen"e o mi+itant nationa+ism in uo#e o Asia> no; is the time to #+a"e eua+ em#hasis onshoing u# ou "o++e"ti%e e"onomi" se"uity . A ai+ue to a"t no; "ou+* un*emine intenationa+se"uity an* #+a"e stabi+ity in $ey egions in uthe Beo#a*y.

22


23/94


A*; Co TPP

TPP 4y the end o .arch

Ka+yan Kuma> Hanuay 28> 2,1-> Intenationa+ 5usiness Times> Tans Pa"ii" Pa"t is A+most !ays Ta*e Oi"ia+ %en as Potests


24/94


2ran

24


25/94


/hell

2ran 5+umentha+ sai*: “The president and his staf

are in touch #ith all o us'”!en. 9a$ 'ane a.J sai* he is a"ti%e+y ;eighing the #esi*ents #osition against 'anes o;n be+ie that Congessnee*s to $ee# #essue on Ian. %en the ha;$ish !en. ;ho sai* 'e*nes*ay that thea*ministations "omments soun* +i$e ta+$ing #oints staight om Tehan>D ;as non"ommitta+ on ;hethe he ;ou+* again"os#onso Ianian san"tions +egis+ation that he on"e +e*. I ha%e no i*ea yet>D 9enen*e? sai*.

The issue> sai* !en. Chu"$ !"hume o )e; =o$> is one o timing. &hile emocrats and Republicansali0e !ant to be tough on ;ran, the presidents party is more open to giving Obamasome breathing room"Thees o%e;he+ming su##ot to toughen u# the san"tions>D sai* !"hume> a membe o emo"ati" +ea*eshi# ;ho "os#onsoe* san"tions +egis+ation +ast yea. The uestion is ;hen. At times in the #ast the #esi*ent as$e* o a +itt+e time>unti+ 9a"h. Thats something #eo#+e ae +oo$ing at.DKi$s bi++ ;ou+* im#ose ne; san"tions i *i#+omati" ta+$s a++ a#at o Ian %io+ates an inteim *ea+. Co$es ;ou+* a++o;Congess an u#o*o;n %ote to eBe"t o a##o%e any ina+ *ea+ bet;een the U.!. an* its a++ies an* Ian. !ou"es ami+ia;ith the #o"ess in both "hambes sai*


26/94


supported sanctions legislation in the last %ongress, but it !as !idely believedthat more emocrats !ould have voted (or the bill i( it had come to the (loor"

.enate >inority &hip i"$ urbin I++.J said the ,ote #ould be a nail-biter i

it #ere held today " But he e>pects enough Democrats to ha,e

ObamaD sai* !enate 9aBoity 'hi# HohnConyn I ;oy that ;e ;i++ a"tue ou "oa+ition>D +a$e sai* o 'esten nations that ha%e"oo*inate* on Ian negotiations an* san"tions. I ;ant to $ee# that "oa+ition togethe.D

!e"etay o !tate Hohn :erry aims to have a (rame!or0 (or a deal by >arch, so the race ison in the .enate to beat him to the punch" The Ban0ing %ommittee postponed itsvote on the :ir0 bill this !ee0 but !ill move s!i(tly ne)t !ee0 !ith a hearingTuesday> a "+assiie* bieing om the a*ministation on Han. 2( and a committee vote @an" 2L>Chaiman @o; the ne; 7OP maBoity "ou+* *estoy ObamaNs nu"+ea *ea+ ;ithIan>D htt#://;;;.%o."om/2,14/11/6/&1642(3/iannu"+ea*ea+"ongessJ

Thee is one oeign #o+i"y issue on ;hi"h the 7OPNs ta$eo%e o the !enate "ou+* ha%e huge amii"ations> an* beyon*

Bust the U!: Republicans are li0ely to try to torpedo Pesi*ent Obama-s ongoing e((orts toreach a nuclear deal !ith ;ran. An* they Bust might pull it o((")o%embe 24 is the +atest *ea*+ine o a ina+ ageement bet;een the Unite* !tates an* Ian o%e the +atteNs nu"+ea

#ogam. ThatN++ +i$e+y be eten*e*> but itNs a emin*e that the negotiations "ou+* soon "ome to a hea*. Throughout

his presidency, Obama has prioritiFed these negotiations L he +i$e+y *oesnNt ;antto +ea%e oi"e ;ithout ha%ing ma*e a *ea+.

5ut i( %ongress doesn-t li0e the deal, or 8ust !ants to see Obama lose, it has thepo!er to torpedo it by imposing ne! sanctions on ;ran. Pe%ious+y> !enate 9aBoity 0ea*e@ay


27/94


tries, !e could see one o( the most important legislati,e 5ght s o

Obama)s presidency ''hy Congess "an bu++y Obama on Ian san"tions At thei most basi" +e%e+> the intenationa+ negotiations o%e IanNs nu"+ea #ogam they in"+u*e se%ea+ othe nations> butthe U! is the biggest #+ayeJ ae a titotat *ea+. I Ian agees to #+a"e a seies o %eiiab+e +imits on its nu"+ea*e%e+o#ment> then the Unite* !tates an* the ;o+* ;i++ e+a thei #ainu+ e"onomi" an* *i#+omati" san"tions on Tehan.The egime o e"onomi" san"tions against Ian is aguab+y the most "om#+e the Unite* !tates an* the intenationa+"ommunity ha%e e%e im#ose* on a ogue state> the Congessiona+ the Pesi*ent etains> in %aying *egees> the authoity to tighten an* e+a esti"tions.

The 0ey point here is that %ongress gave Obama that po!er — !hich means theycan ta0e it bac0" 3Mou could see a bill in place that ma0es it harder (or theadministration to suspend sanctions,3 :en .o(er, the Associate irector (orFational .ecurity and ;nternational Policy at the %enter (or American Progress ;hee I ;o$e* o a +itt+e un*e t;o yeas> though not ;ith !oe *ie"t+yJ> says. =ou "ou+* a+so see a bi++ that says the#esi*ent "anNt agee to a *ea+ un+ess it in"+u*es the o++o;ing things o Ra bi++S o"ing a "ongessiona+ %ote on any *ea+.

;mposing ne! sanctions on ;ran !ouldn-t 8ust sti(le Obama-s ability to remove

e)isting sanctions, it !ould undermine Obama-s authority to negotiate !ith ;ran atall, sending the message to Tehran that Obama is not !orth dealing !ith becausehe can-t control his o!n (oreign policy "

.o i Obama #ants to make a deal #ith 2ran( he needs !ongress to

play ball " 5ut itNs not "+ea that 9it"h 9"Conne++Ns !enate ;ants to.Congess "ou+* easi+y use its authoity to $i++ an Ian *ea+To un*estan* ;hy the ne; !enate is su"h a big *ea+ o "ongessiona+ a"tion on san"tions> ;e ha%e to Bum# ba"$ a yea.In )o%embe 2,13> the Obama a*ministation stu"$ an inteim *ea+ ;ith Ian "a++e* the Hoint P+an o A"tion HPOAJ. As#at o the HPOA> the U! agee* to +imite*> tem#oay san"tions e+ie in e"hange o Ian +imiting nu"+ea #ogam"om#onents +i$e uanium #o*u"tion.Congessiona+ the @ouse #asse* ne; san"tions on Ian in e"embe. Thee is a+so a +ine o agument> thoughoten +ess e#+i"it> that the Ianian go%enment "annot be tuste* ;ith any *ea+ at a++> an* that U! #o+i"y shou+* o"us on"oe"ing Ian into submission o unseating the Ianian go%enment entie+y.J !enate ha* the %otes to #ass a simi+a bi++. 5ut in ebuay> !enate 9aBoity +ea*e @ay he sai*. !o no; that 9"Conne++ ho+*s the maBoity +ea*eNs ga%e+> it ;i++ emo%e that #o"e*ua+oa*b+o"$ that stoo* bet;een Obama an* ne; Ian san"tions.To be "+ea> itNs a om guaantee* that Obama ;i++ be ab+e to ea"h a *ea+ ;ith Ian at a++L negotiations "ou+* a++ a#at+ong beoe they ea"h the #oint o "ongessiona+ in%o+%ement. 5ut i he *oes ea"h a *ea+> an* Congess *oesnNt +i$e thetems> then theyN++ be ab+e to $i++ it by #assing ne; san"tions +egis+ation> o #e%enting Obama om tem#oai+y ;ai%ing theones on the boo$s.

An* ma0e no mista0e — imposing ne! sanctions or limiting Obama-s authority to!aive the current ones !ould 0ill any deal" ;( ;ran can-t e)pect Obama to (ollo!through on his promises to rela) sanctions, it has +ero incentive to limit itsnuclear program" I Congess a*o#ts san"tions> Ianian oeign 9iniste Ha%a* ai to+* Time +ast e"embe>the entie *ea+ is *ea*.

9oeo%e>

it could racture the international mo,ement to sanction 2ran "The nited . tates is (ar (rom ;ran-s biggest trading partner, so it depends oninternational cooperation in order to ensure the sanctions bite" ;( it loo0s li0e the

. !on-t abide by the terms o( a deal, the broad-based international

sanctions regime could collapse " uo#e> #ati"u+a+y> might *e"i*e that going a+ong ;ith thesan"tions is no +onge ;oth;hi+e.Ou abi+ity to "oe"e Ian is +age+y base* on ;hethe o not the intenationa+ "ommunity thin$s that ;e ae the ones thatae being "onstu"ti%e an* RIaniansS ae the ones that being obstu"ti%e> !oe says. I they *onNt be+ie%e that> then theintenationa+ san"tions egime a++s a#at.This "ou+* be one o the biggest ights o ObamaNs +ast tem

27


28/94


;t-s true that Obama could veto any %ongressional e((orts to blo! up an ;ran deal!ith sanctions" But a t!othirds vote could override any veto — and> a""o*ing to !oe>an override is entirely !ithin the realm o( possibility.Thee ae #+enty o emo"ats that ;i++ #obab+y si*e ;ith any !ill li0ely de(ect to the *OP side out o(principle"The real (ight> !oe says> !ill be among the emocrats — those !ho are !illing tota0e the administration-s side in theory, but don-t necessarily thin0 a deal !ith ;ranis legislative priority number one, and maybe don-t !ant to open themselves up tothe political ris0" These emocrats 3can ma0e it harder6 you can (ilibuster, i(you-re Obama you can veto G you "an ma$e it im#ossib+e o a u++ bi++ to be #asse* out o Congess on

Ian> !oe says. 4ut it )d be a really tough battle( one that #ould consume

a lot o energy and lobbying efort that Democrats might preer to

spend pushing on other issues 'INm not ea++y sue theyNe going to be ;i++ing to ta$e on a ight about an Ian san"tions bi++> !oe "on"+u*es. INm notea++y sue that the emo"ats ;ho su##ot Ra *ea+S ae ea++y u++y behin* it enough that theyN++ be ;i++ing to gi%e u#

+e%eage on> you $no;> unem#+oyment insuan"e o immigation status G these bigge issues o most emo"ats.

!o i( the ne! Republican .enate prioriti+es destroying a n ;ran deal, Obama #ill

ha,e to 5ght ,ery hard to keep it — !ithout necessarily being able to

count on his o!n party (or support" And the sta0es are enormous6 i 2ran)s

nuclear program isn)t stopped peaceully( then the most likely

outcomes are either 2ran going nuclear( or #ar #ith 2ran "

The administration believes a deal !ith ;ran is their only !ay to avoid this horrible

choice" That-s !hy it-s been one o the administration)s top priorities sin"e*ay one. ItNs a+so ;hy this "ou+* be"ome one o the biggest +egis+ati%e ights o ObamaNs +ast t;o yeas.

Cuke #arPhi+i# .tevens 1H> asso"iate e*ito an* "hie #o+iti"a+ "ommentato o the inan"ia+ Times>)o% 14 2,13> The ou big tuths that ae sha#ing the Ian ta+$s>Dhtt#://;;;.t."om/"ms/s/,/a1&,*64*1"11e3b32,,144eab*",.htm+

The ;hosai*;hat game about +ast ;ee$en*s ta+$s in 7ene%a has be"ome a *ista"tion. The si)po!er negotiations !ithTehran to curb ;rans nuclear programme may yet succeed or (ail. 5ut ;ang+ing bet;een the U! an*an"e on the tems o an a""e#tab+e *ea+ shou+* not a++o; the tees to obs"ue the oest. The oganising a"ts sha#ing the negotiations ha%e not "hange*. The

ist o these is that Tehrans ac7uisition o( a bomb !ould be moe than dangerous o the 9i**+e ast an* (or

;i*e international security" ;t !ould most +i$e+y set o(( a nuclear arms race that !ould

see /audi Arabia( Turkey and Egypt signing up to the nuclear club . The

nuclear nonproli( eration treaty !ould be shattered " A utue regional con(lict could

dra# 2srael into launching a pre-empti,e nuclear strike' This is not a

region ob%ious+y susceptible to cold #ar disciplines o deterrence . The se"on*

ineluctable reality is that ;ran has mastered the nuclear cycle " @o; a it is om bui+*ing abomb emains a subBe"t o *ebate. ieent inte++igen"e agen"ies gi%e *ieent ans;es. These *e#en* in #at on ;hat the s#oo$s a"tua++y $no; an* in #at on;hat thei #o+iti"a+ mastes ;ant othes to hea. The #ogess o an I anian ;ahea* #ogamme is one o the $no;n un$no;ns that ha%e oten ;ea$e* ha%o" inthis #at o the ;o+*. Isae+ #oints to an imminent theat. uo#ean agen"ies ae moe e+ae*> suggesting Tehan is sti++ t;o yeas o so a;ay om a ;ea#on.'esten *i#+omats boa*+y agee that Ayato++ah A+i Khamenei has not ta$en a *einiti%e *e"ision to ste# o%e the +ine. 'hat Ian has been see$ing is ;hat*i#+omats "a++ a bea$out "a#abi+ity – the "a#a"ity to *ash to a bomb beoe the intenationa+ "ommunity "ou+* ee"ti%e+y mobi+ise against it. The thi* a"t – an*this one is ha* o many to s;a++o; – is that neithe a negotiate* sett+ement no the ai sti$es +ong a%oue* by 5enBamin )etanyahu> Isae+s #ime ministe> "anoe the est o the ;o+* a ;atetight insuan"e #o+i"y. It shou+* be #ossib+e to "onstu"t a *ea+ that a"ts as a #+ausib+e estaint – an* eten*s the timeame oany bea$out – but no amount o esti"tions o intusi%e monitoing "an oe a "etain guaantee against Tehans utue intentions. 5y the same to$en>

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bombing ;rans nuclear sites could "etain+y delay the programme> #eha#s o a "ou#+e o yeas. But>

assuming that e%en the ha;$ish 9 )etanyahu is not #o#osing #emanent ;a against Ian> air strikes #ould not end it'

Mou cannot bomb 0no!ledge and technical e)pertise" To try !ould be to empo!erthose in Tehran !ho say the regime !ill be sa(e only !hen> +i$e )oth Koea> it has a!eapon. !o ;hen 5aa"$ Obama says the U! ;i++ ne%e a++o; Ian to get the bomb he is in*u+ging in> a+beit un*estan*ab+e> ;ishu+ thin$ing. The

best the international community can hope (or is that, in return (or arela)ation o( sanctions, ;ran !ill ma0e a 8udg ment that it is better o(( stic0ing !itha threshold capability " To #ut this anothe ;ay> i( Tehran does step bac0 (rom the nuclear brin0

it !ill be because o( its o#n calculation o the balance o ad,antage " The

outh e+ement in this *ynami" is that ;ran no! has a leadership that, (aced !ith the se%ee an* go;ing pain

in(licted by sanctions, is prepared to talk . Thee is nothing to say that @assan the #esi*ent> is any +essha*hea*e* than #e%ious Ianian +ea*es> but he *oes seem ea*y to ;eigh the o#tions.

Kes #ar and e>tinction&ittner 11 0a;en"e 'ittne is Poesso o @istoy emeitus at !U)=/A+bany Is a )u"+ea

'a 'ith China Possib+eE 11/3,/2,11 ;;;.huington#ost."om/+a;en"e;ittne/nu"+ea;a"hinaWbW1116--6.htm+

While nuc lear weapons exist, there remains a danger that they #ill be

used ' After all, for centuries international conflicts have led to wars, with nations employing

their deadliest #eapons . The current deterioration o U'/' relations #ith

!hina might end up providing us with yet another example of this phenomenon.The gathering

tension between the United States and China is clear enough. Disturbed by China's growing economicand military strength, the U.S. government recently challenged China's claims in the South China Sea, increased the U.S. military

presence in Australia, and deepened U.S. military ties with other nations in the acific region. According to Secretary of State

!illary Clinton, the United States was "asserting our own position as a acific power."#ut need this lead to

nuclear #arL $ot necessarily. And yet, there are signs that it could . After all, both the United

States and China possess large numbers o nuclear #eapons . The U.S. governmentthreatened to attac% China with nuclear weapons during the &orean ar and, later, during their conflict over the future of China'soffshore islands, (uemoy and )atsu. *n the midst of the latter confrontation, resident Dwight +isenhower declared publicly, and

chillingly, that U.S. nuclear weapons would "be used ust exactly as you would use a bullet or

anything else."f course, China didn't have nuclear weapons then. $ow that it does, perhaps the behavior of national

leaders will be more temperate. #ut the loose nuclear threats of U.S. and Soviet government officials

during the Cold ar, when both nations had vast nuclear arsenals, should convince us that, e,en as the

military ante is raised( nuclear saber-rattling persists ' Some pundits

argue that nuc lear weapons prevent wars between nuclear-armed nations and, admittedly, there haven't been

very many -- at least not yet. #ut the !argil War of ###, between nuclear-armed *ndia and nuclear-armed a%istan,

should convince us that such #ars can occur . *ndeed, in that case, the conflict almost

slipped into a nuclear #ar . $a%istan&s foreign secretary threatened that, if the

war escalated, his country felt free to use "any weapon" in its arsenal. During the conflict,

$a%istan did move nuclear weapons toward its border, while 'ndia, it is claimed, readied its

own nuclear missiles for an attac% on $a%istan.At the least, though, don't nuclear weapons deter a nuclear

attac%/ Do they/ bviously, $AT leaders didn't feel deterred, for, throughout the Cold ar, (A)*&s strategy was to

respond to a Soviet conventional military attac% on Western +urope by launching a

Western nuclear attac% on the nucleararmed Soviet Union . 0urthermore, if U.S. government

officials really believed that nuclear deterrence wor%ed, they would not have resorted to

29


30/94


championing "Star Wars" and its modern variant, national missile defense . hy are thesevastly e1pensive -- and probably unwor%able -- military defense systems needed if other nuclear powers are deterred from

attac%ing by U.S. nuclear might/*f course, the bottom line for those Americans convinced that

nuclear weapons safeguard them from a Chinese nuclear attac% might be that the U.S.

nuclear arsenal is far greater than its Chinese counterpart . Today, it is estimated that the U.S.government possesses over 2,333 nuclear warheads, while the Chinese government has a total inventory of roughly 433.

)oreover, only about 53 of these Chinese nuclear weapons can reach the United States. Surely the United States would "win" any

nuclear war with China.-ut what would that "victory" entail An attac% with these Chinese

nuclear weapons would immediately slaughter at least +& million

Americans in a great storm of blast and fire, while leaving many more dying horribly of

sic%ness and radiation poisoning. )he Chinese death toll in a nuclear war would be far

higher. -oth nations would be reduced to smoldering( radioacti,e

#astelands . Also, radioactive debris sent aloft by the nuclear explosions would blot

out the sun and bring on a " nuclear #inter6 around the globe -- destroyingagriculture, creating worldwide famine, and generating chaos and destruction.

30


31/94


UM

Cetanyahu ,isit has reduced support or the sanctions

ana 9i+ban$> 12&1-> 'ashington Post> htt#://;;;.;ashington#ost."om/o#inions/*ana

mi+ban$e#ub+i"ans*is"o%ethatitisnteasyunning"ongess/2,1 OA: 1281-At the same time, Boehner managed to provoke an international incident, and split the American

Jewish community, by inviting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to address Congress on

the eve of the Israeli elections — without consulting the White House. The invitation, intended to

boost prospects for tough new sanctions against Iran, seems instead to have emboldened opposition

to the sanctions. In the Senate, meanwhile, Democrats used procedural powers to delay passage of the

Keystone XL pipeline bill — new majority leader Mitch McConnell’s top priority — after McConnell

retreated on his promise to allow freewheeling amendments.

Obama has Dems to sustain ,eto no#

T?%i :ahn, 1221-> Kahn is a senio #o+i"y ana+yst at the oeign Po+i"y Initiati%e>U!)'!."om> Obama Pesents a+se Choi"e on Ian )u"+ea ea+>htt#://;;;.usne;s."om/o#inion/b+ogs/;o+*e#ot/2,1-/,1/22/obama#esentsa+se"hoi"eoniannu"+ea*ea+ OA: 1221-

%ongress should be a!are,3 Obama declared last !ee0, 3that i( this diplomatic solution(ails, then the ris0s and li0elihood that this ends up being at some point a militarycon(rontation is heightened> an* Congess ;i++ ha%e to o;n that as ;e++> an* that ;i++ ha%e tobe *ebate* by the Amei"an #eo#+e. As a tactical matter, tarring his opponents as!armongers once again may still succeed in persuading vacillating emocratic la!ma0ersto double do!n on the president-s approach and uphold his threatened veto o( ne!sanctions legislation" This time> ho;e%e> Congess "an *ebate the stategy ;ith the beneit o

moe than a yea o e%i*en"e that it has bought no #ogess.

/upport or sanctions is #eakening no#BenAmi, 1/2H/15 #esi*ent an* oun*e o H !teet> ;hi"h a*%o"ates o a t;ostateeso+ution to the Isae+iPa+estinian "on+i"t Heemy> Ianian san"tions su##ot ;ea$ening>Dhtt#://"hi"ago.suntimes."om/othe%ie;s/&/&1/316331/ianiansan"tionssu##ot;ea$eningJ

This ;ee$s su#ise announ"ement that Isae+i Pime 9iniste 5enBamin Fetanyahu !ill visit&ashington to a**ess a Boint session o Congess has been ame* as yet anothe sho;*o;nbet;een the "uent Isae+i go%enment an* the 'hite @ouse> in #ati"u+a> o%e thei *ue+ingstategies on ho; to #e%ent a nu"+ea–ame* Ian.

5ut !hen t he prime minister arrives in the nited .tates, he !ill encounter a

broad #ub+i" consensus that supports the diplomatic approach ad,anced bythe "." administration as the best means to $ee# Ian om a"uiing nu"+ea ;ea#ons>

an* o##oses +egis+ating ne; san"tions ;hi+e negotiations ae ongoing.In*ee*> !ithin 2I hours o( Pesi*ent Obamas .tate o( the nion address, it became

clear that there is ar less support or ne! sanctions than some observers

perhaps e>pected .

In his s#ee"h> the Pesi*ent ight+y toute* the #ositi%e ee"t o the )o%embe 2,13 inteimageement ;ith Ian> ;hi"h o++e* ba"$ some o the most "on"ening as#e"ts o Ians nu"+ea

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/dana-milbank-republicans-discover-that-it-isnt-easy-running-congress/201http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/dana-milbank-republicans-discover-that-it-isnt-easy-running-congress/201http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/dana-milbank-republicans-discover-that-it-isnt-easy-running-congress/201http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/richard-cohen-benjamin-netanyahus-contempt-for-president-obama/2015/01/26/40eb7cd6-a590-11e4-a2b2-776095f393b2_story.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/01/26/senate-democrats-filibuster-g-o-p-attempt-to-force-keystone-vote/http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/01/26/senate-democrats-filibuster-g-o-p-attempt-to-force-keystone-vote/http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/01/26/senate-democrats-filibuster-g-o-p-attempt-to-force-keystone-vote/http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/world-report/2015/01/22/obama-presents-false-choice-on-iran-nuclear-dealhttp://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/world-report/2015/01/22/obama-presents-false-choice-on-iran-nuclear-dealhttp://chicago.suntimes.com/other-views/7/71/316331/iranian-sanctions-support-weakeninghttp://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/dana-milbank-republicans-discover-that-it-isnt-easy-running-congress/201http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/dana-milbank-republicans-discover-that-it-isnt-easy-running-congress/201http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/richard-cohen-benjamin-netanyahus-contempt-for-president-obama/2015/01/26/40eb7cd6-a590-11e4-a2b2-776095f393b2_story.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/01/26/senate-democrats-filibuster-g-o-p-attempt-to-force-keystone-vote/http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/01/26/senate-democrats-filibuster-g-o-p-attempt-to-force-keystone-vote/http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/world-report/2015/01/22/obama-presents-false-choice-on-iran-nuclear-dealhttp://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/world-report/2015/01/22/obama-presents-false-choice-on-iran-nuclear-dealhttp://chicago.suntimes.com/other-views/7/71/316331/iranian-sanctions-support-weakening


32/94


#ogam> an* note* that ;o+* #o;es no; ha%e a "han"e to negotiate a ina+ ageement that;ou+* ensue that Ian *oes not a"uie nu"+ea ;ea#ons.5ut he ;ane* that he ;ou+* not hesitate to %eto any ne; san"tions bi++> ;hi"h ;ou+* a++ butguaantee that *i#+oma"y ai+s G a+ienating Amei"a om its a++iesL an* ensuing that Ian statsu# its nu"+ea #ogam again.DIn a matte o hous> the Pesi*ents sentiments ;ee e"hoe* by ome !e"etay o !tate @i++ayC+inton> ;ho "a++e* ne; san"tions a %ey seious> stategi" eo>D an* by to# Congessiona+emo"ats +i$e 9inoity 0ea*e )an"y Pe+osi an* !enato 5abaa 5oe.

An* in the 'ashington Post> the oeign aais "hies o the uo#ean Union> the Unite*King*om> 7emany an* an"e ;ote togethe that athe than stengthening ou negotiating#osition> ne; san"tions +egis+ation at this #oint ;ou+* set us ba"$.D more and more la!ma0ers understand that these negotiations ha,e

changed the e3uation . 'hi+e thee may "ome a time in the utue ;hen moe san"tions

be"ome ne"essay G i ta+$s ai+> o i Ian %io+ates a ina+ *ea+ G mo%ing o;a* ;ith +egis+ationat this time ;ou+* be *angeous an* "ounte#o*u"ti%e to ou inteests.It ;ou+* a+so gi%e the staun"hest Ianian ha*+ines ea"t+y ;hat they ;ant. Hust as thesenegotiations ha%e "ha++enge* ou o;n #o+iti"s> e#uty !e"etay o !tate Tony 5+in$en testiie*this ;ee$ that Ian is not immune to #o+iti"s> eithe.DCuent Ian san"tions su""ee*e* in binging Ian to the negotiating tab+e> *e+aying the #ossibi+ityo mi+itay "onontation an* "eating an o#ening o a *i#+omati" eso+ution o this "isis. This has#itte* mo*eates ;ho su##ot a *ea+> +i$e Ianian Pesi*ent @assan against moe"onse%ati%e i%a+s ;ho ae +oo$ing o any e"use to $i++ the ta+$s. @o; this #o+iti"a+ stugg+e

#+ays out may %ey ;e++ *e#en* on the "+ea "hoi"es a"ing Congessiona+ +a;ma$es in the"oming ;ee$s.

As Pesi*ent Obama an* othes ha%e ague*> !e dont yet 0no! !hether these

negotiations !ith ;ran #ill produce a deal' But !e do 0no! !hat !ill happen i(

they (ail 6 ;ranian hardliners #ill gro# stronger , ;ran !ill resume and even

e)pand its most concerning nuclear activities, and the >iddle Cast !ill inch

closer to a #ar that !ould put ;srael and other allies in 8eopardy" That ris0

alone ma0es this diplomacy !orth it, and ma0es e((orts to sabotage it !ith ne!sanctions all the more irresponsible"

Co o,erride no#( but continued P! is key

&ong, 1/15/15 Kistina> #et: Obama to %eto ne; Ian san"tions>Dhtt#://thehi++."om/#o+i"y/*eense/228&1(e#etobamanea"etainto%etone;iansan"tionsJ

3;( the %ongress passes a ne! sanctions bill that the administration considersdamaging to prospects (or negotiations> Pesi*ent Obama is very li0ely to veto it,3!rote in the )ationa+ Inteest on 'e*nes*ay.

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3.enior administration o((icials !ould then go into o,erdri,e in 5nding the

N /enate ,otes necessary to sustain the ,eto ,3 !rote Cinhorn, a senior

(ello! at the Broo0ings Institution.

Cinhorn predicted that some emo"ats ;i++ %ote to o%ei*e the %eto> but it is 6likely that the

administration #ill ha,e the ,otes to sustain the ,eto and prevent

legislation potentially damaging to the negotiations (rom being enacted"33&hile the Republican controlled %ongress !ill undoubtedly give theadministration a tough time, it is li0ely that President Obama !ill be able, !ithoutlegislative inter(erence, to continue negotiating an agreement that he believes isin the "." interest,3 inhon ;ote.!ens. but a bi++ in the !enate ;as he+* u# by then9aBoity 0ea*e @ay out o *eeen"e to the 'hite @ouse.The #esi*ent #+e*ge* in his 2,14 !tate o the Union a**ess to %eto any Ian san"tions bi++ that Congess sent to him.

)e; 9aBoity 0ea*e 9it"h 9"Conne++ ;hi"h has the ba"$ing o a maBoity o senatos> o a %ote this yea.

Carlier this !ee0, the &hite 'ouse reiterated its 3strong opposition to additionalsanctions legislation that could derail the negotiations and isolate the nited.tates (rom our international coalition"3

Obama can s#ing key senators' This e, is the best toanalyFe ,ote counts'iamond, 1/L/15 Heemy> )e; Congess> ne; nu"+ea sho;*o;n o%e Ian>Dhtt#://;;;."nn."om/2,1-/,1/,8/#o+iti"s/iansan"tionsighte#ub+i"an"ongess/J

'ashington C))J ;ranian and American negotiators #e#aing to suae o in 7ene%a net ;ee$ o%e IanNs

nu"+ea ambitions !ill a+so be eying another sho!do!n bre!ing in &ashington.One yea ate a pecting the hite 0ouse to start knocking on s#ing

senators) doors , supporters 0no! the cloc0 is tic0ing to pass a sanctions bill

they say ;i++ at"het u# #essue on Ian. But (or opponents o( additional sanctions, the tic0ing is

more li0e a time bomb as a sanctions bill #ill torpedo negotiations and

set the U'/' on a path to #ar #ith 2ran > they "+aim.o !en. 9a$ Ki$> the the soone a san"tionsbi++ hits the !enate +oo> the bette both #o+iti"a++y an* #o+i"y;ise.I the !enate ;as a++o;e* to %ote tomoo;> I ;ou+* be ab+e to get t;othi*s> Ki$ sai* !un*ay in a #hone inte%ie;. )o; is the time to#ut #essue on Ian es#e"ia++y ;ith oi+ #i"es so +o;. 'e ae uniue+y a*%antage* at this time to shut *o;n this nu"+ea #ogam.!en. 0in*sey 7aham anothe maBo #o#onent o the +egis+ation> to+* C)) +ast month the Ki$9enen*e? bi++ ;i++ "omeu# o a %ote in Hanuay> a #+e*ge he ma*e the same *ay to Isae+i Pime 9iniste 5enBamin )etanyahu in a meeting in Heusa+em.

Ki$ sai* he ba"$e* that timing but insiste* that it *e#en*s on !enate 9aBoity 0ea*e 9it"h 9"Conne++. A >c%onnellspo0esman called the legislation 3a priority,3 but sai* thee isnNt yet a s"he*u+e o a san"tions bi++.


34/94


'e ha%e +ong be+ie%e* that Congess shou+* not "onsi*e any ne; san"tions ;hi+e negotiations ae un*e;ay> in o*e to gi%e ounegotiatos the time an* s#a"e they nee* to u++y test the "uent *i#+omati" o##otunity. )e; san"tions theaten the *i#+omati" #o"ess"uent+y un*e;ay> a senio a*ministation oi"ia+ to+* C)).

The :ir0>enende+ bill that *ie* in the !enate +ast yea !ould reimpose sanctions on ;ran i(Obama couldn-t certi(y that ;ran doesn-t (inance terror groups that have attac0edAmericans and !ould 0eep ;ran (rom maintaining lo!level nuclear enrichment ina (inal deal> Bust a e; tems that ae mu"h sti"te than the "uent ame;o$ o negotiations bet;een Ian an* the P-[1 ;o+*

#o;es.

Those congressional provisions are 6poison pills(6 according to y+an &illiams,

head o( government a((airs at @ .treet, a group that bills itsel( as pro;srael. It +obbie*hea%i+y on the issue +ast yea an* is am#ing u# o anothe o"eu+ #ush.

A++ o these things ae #oison #i++s> a om the "+ean san"tions> Bustithingsgo;ong i*ea> 'i++iams sai*. 3&e 0no! thatmany i( not most o( the people pushing (or legislation don-t !ant diplomacy to!or0"3H !teet "ha++enges the Isae+ +obby om ;ithinKi$ has a+ea*y been ;o$ing ;ith !en. 5ob 9enen*e?> o )e; Hesey> his emo"ati" #atne on the bi++> to e;o$ some o its +anguage "hanges that "ou+* #otentia++y *a; moe emo"ati" su##ot. The #ai ae sti++ ;o$ing on ina+ +anguage o the bi++> ;hi"h *e; -8"os#onsos +ast yea> though Ki$ sai* he is ;o$ing to sta%e o as many "hanges as #ossib+e The moe "hanges> the ;ose> he sai*.

The ;llinois Republican e)pects a high-pro5le challenge rom the hite

0ouse and its allies > but he ;i++ be getting his o;

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