poster

Web Page: www.jamesgregory.org

James Gregory Public Lectures

Future Programme:

1. April 30 -- Kenneth Miller“Life: Creation or Evolution?”

2. October 29 2009 -- Keith Ward "God, Science and the New Atheism"

3. February 18, 2010 -- David Wilkinson "God and the Big Bang”

4. April 29, 2010 -- Bill Newsome "The Mind: Brain or Spirit?"

John ray pamphletBy John Houghton--for sale atBookstore

-Or downloadfrom web site

John Ray Initiative www.jri.org.uk

book

For sale atbookstore

Global Warming -is it real and what can we do?

John Houghton

James Gregory LectureUniversity of St Andrews

19 February 2009

SPACESHIP EARTH

• Spaceship Economy

or

• Cowboy Economy

after Prof Kenneth Boulding 1966

Sustainability

• Not cheating our children

• Not cheating our neighbours

• Not cheating the rest of creation

The Science of Global Warming

The underlying physics of global warming

(known for 200 years)

Solar radiation

Long-wave radiation

The Greenhouse Effectjp10

Changes in CO2 over 10,000 yearsfrom ice-cores (colored symbols) and atmospheric samples (red

line)

From Figure SPM-1, Summary for Policymakers, IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report

Scenarios of Future Changes in Climate

From IPCC AR4 2007

Some main impacts of climate change

• More intense heat waves

• Sea level rise

• More intense hydrological cycle

jp14

European Heatwave 2003 - JJA temp anomaly compared with average 1961-90

From Technical Summary , IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report, 2007

European heat-wave 2003 - 20,000 died

extremelyrare

event

(Schär et al. 2004, Nature, 427, 332-336,

Stott et al 2004, Nature 432 610-614)

Swiss Temperature Series for June-August 1864-2003

Analysis shows it likely that most of the risk of the event is due to increase in greenhouse gases - also likely that

- by 2050, average summer

- by 2100, a cool summerjp16

Adapted from Milliman et al. (1989).

More rain for some; less rain for othersJun-Jul-Aug changes by 2090s

Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudes

Precipitation decreases likely in most subtropical land regionsFrom Summary for Policymakers, IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report

Floods and Droughts - the most damaging of world

disasters

Over the period 1975-2002:

• Over 200,000 lives lost through flooding from rainfall &2.2 billion people affected

• Over 500,000 lives lost due to drought & 1.3 billion affected

Jonkman, S.N. 2005 Natural Hazards 34, 151-175

jp18

Global Warming & Climate Change in 21st Century

• Rise in global average temperature > 2 ºC

• Rise in average sea level for many centuries

• More extreme heat waves, floods and droughts

• Likely Greenland ice cap will begin to melt down (complete melt down gives 7m of sea level

rise)• Poor nations worst affected

• Many millions of environmental refugees

• Loss of millions of species

How sure are we about Global Warming?

jp22

www.ipcc.ch

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

• Founded in 1988

• Many hundreds of scientists involved from different countries & ideologies

• Under discipline of science - honesty, accuracy & balance

• In June 2005, Academies of Science of all G8 countries with India, China & Brazil, issued a joint statement,

“Global response to climate change” endorsing the international scientific consensus of the IPCC.

- a remarkably strong endorsement from the world’s top scientific community

jp24

What can we do aboutGlobal Warming?

International Action

jp25

UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE

Rio de Janeiro : June 1992

ARTICLE 2: OBJECTIVE

The ultimate objective of this Convention

.... is to achieve, .… stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere … the level to be chosen should enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.•

jp26

jp31

Stabilization Target of 2ºC above preindustrial

• First proposed by EU Council in 1996

• Reiterated by Chancellor Merkel at G8 in 2007

• Widely urged by many at Bali Conference 2007

What Action?

• Halt Deforestation

• More efficient energy generation & use

• Carbon capture and storage underground

• Renewable energy generation with no carbon emissions

jp31

What Action?

• Halt Deforestation

• More efficient energy generation & use

• Carbon capture and storage underground

• Renewable energy generation with no carbon emissions

jp31

What Action?

• Halt Deforestation

• More efficient energy generation & use

• Carbon capture and storage underground

• Renewable energy generation with no carbon emissions

jp31

from IEA WEO 2007

What Action?

• Halt Deforestation

• More efficient energy generation & use

• Carbon capture and storage underground

• Renewable energy generation with no carbon emissions

jp31

Concentrated Solar Power

Thousands of mirrors focus sunlight on to gas or steam

engines to make

electricity

Energy from Biomass & Waste • From Waste - domestic and agricultural• From Biocrops to power stations• From Biocrops to Biofuels

• Local rather than centralized energy so valuable in rural areas

• Energy from agricultural & forestry wastes could meet at least 10 % of the World’s total energy needs.from World Energy Outlook, IEA, 2006 Table 14.6

Local energy for rural areas in the developing world

Car batteryRefrigerator

T.V.

Light Solar cell array

~1 m2

~100 W peak power

Local solar energy supply

+ -

from IEA ETP 2008

The International Challenge

per Capita CO2e Emissions in 2004

from IPCC AR4, WGIII, 2007

Climate Change: the Moral Imperative

• Growth of wealth in rich world through cheap coal, oil, gas

• No realization of damage caused, especially to poor countries

• Rich countries need to reduce damage & assist poor countries develop sustainably

Are we good at Sharing?• Yes - in our families

• Yes - in our communities

• Yes - in our national social programs

• No - internationally with poorer nations - net flow of wealth from poor to rich

We have to learn to SHARE

From everyone who has been given much,

much will be demanded

Jesus in Luke 12 v 48

How long have we got?

Waymarks for global energy emissions road map to

2050

Investment in Energy to 2050

• Under business-as usual ~ 6 trillion $/year

• With emissions reductions under 2 deg target ~ extra 1 $trillion /year or 1% of world GDP

• Extra investment recovered through savings on fuel

» from IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2008

The world’s energy system is at a crossroads

Current global energy..trends..are

unsustainable

There’s still time to change the road we’re on

What’s needed is nothing short of an energy revolution

IEA World Energy Outlook 2008Executive Summary

Action on Climate Change

“Mostly we know what to do, but we lack the will to do it”

Sir Crispin Tickellin the Doomsday Letters

Reasons for optimism

- Commitment of scientific community

- Necessary technology available

- God’s commitment to his creation

jp42

Intelligence behind universe?

Where do ‘laws’ of nature, awe & wonder come from?

‘a deeply religious non-believer’

Albert Einstein

God is Creator

Science is God’s science

God is our partner in caring for Creation

“Noone made a greater

mistake than he who did

nothing because he could do

so little”

Edmund Burke

Everybody can do something

Caring for the Earth – a Scientific, Moral & Spiritual Challenge