Potash in Saskatchewan:An Overview of Exploration
and Developments
Potash in Saskatchewan:An Overview of Exploration
and DevelopmentsSaskatchewan Ministry of
Energy and ResourcesSaskatchewan Ministry of
Energy and ResourcesJason Berenyi, Chao Yang, and Gavin JensenJason Berenyi, Chao Yang, and Gavin Jensen
Presentation OverviewPresentation Overview
•• Saskatchewan Potash Saskatchewan Potash •• Geology of Potash DepositsGeology of Potash Deposits•• Current potash mines Current potash mines –– production, production,
capacity and planned upgradescapacity and planned upgrades•• Current Status of Potash ExplorationCurrent Status of Potash Exploration•• Saskatchewan global roleSaskatchewan global role•• New Geoscience New Geoscience
Potash Potash –– What is it?What is it?• Potash - general term for
potassium (K) salts
• Mineralogy– Halite (NaCl) – common salt– Sylvite (KCl) – 60-63% K2O
equivalent.– Carnallite (KCl.MgCl26H20)
only 17% K2O equivalent.
• Product – potassium chloride(KCl)– Grades of product are
subdivided based on varying K2O purity and particle size
150
150
300
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
150150
150
Regina
Saskatoon
MIN
NESO
TA
NORTH DAKOTAMONTANA
IDA
HOWASHINGTON
BRITISH COLUMBIA
ALBERTA
MANITOBA
SASKATCHEWAN
Winnipeg
Calgary
Edmonton
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
Late
ral fa
cie
to
s chang
e no
n-evapo
ritic rock s
Pres
qu’il
e Re
ef
Muskeg Formation
Scale0 100 200 300 400 km
Contour Interval = 150 m
Potash distribution
NThe Prairie Evaporite
Formation in the Western Canada
Sedimentary Basin•Middle Devonian age
(380 Ma)
The Prairie Evaporite Formation in the Western Canada
Sedimentary Basin•Middle Devonian age
(380 Ma)
Depths to deposits ~ 1000 m near Saskatoon; 1600 m Depths to deposits ~ 1000 m near Saskatoon; 1600 m near Regina; 3000 m in North Dakotanear Regina; 3000 m in North Dakota
Halite and Anhydrite
4 potash-bearing members (6-15m thick) in upper 60 m
Maximum 213m
Schematic cross section of the Middle Devonian Prairie Evaporite looking north
Belle PlaineBelle Plaine
Esterhazy K1 & K2Rocanville
CoryPatience Lake
AllanLanigan
VanscoyColonsay
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
Fuzesy (1982) and Holter (1969)
Potash Underground MinesPotash Underground Mines
Underground Mining at Esterhazy K2
PCS Cory
••8 conventional underground mines8 conventional underground mines••First mine started in 1962First mine started in 1962••7.4 to 23.0 Bt KCl resources7.4 to 23.0 Bt KCl resources
Mined Potash Face PCS Cory
Potash Solution MiningPotash Solution Mining
Mosaic Belle Plaine solution mine showing surface precipitation ponds
••First solution mine started in 1964First solution mine started in 1964••Solution mines are at Belle Plaine and Patience LakeSolution mines are at Belle Plaine and Patience Lake••Outlined Resources 68.9 to 102.5 Bt KCl solutionOutlined Resources 68.9 to 102.5 Bt KCl solution
Harvesting boat surface precipitation pond Mosaic Belle Plaine solution mine.
Regina
Saskatoon
SASKATCHEWAN
Scale0 100 200 300 400 km
Potash distribution
NOperating MinesOperating Mines
VanscoyVanscoy••Underground mineUnderground mine••In 2006 increased annual production In 2006 increased annual production capacity by 0.31 Mt to 2.05 Mt KCl capacity by 0.31 Mt to 2.05 Mt KCl ••Considering expansion 0.3Considering expansion 0.3--0.8 Mt KCl 0.8 Mt KCl
AllanAllan••Underground mineUnderground mine••2007 brought back 0.4 Mt KCl idle capacity2007 brought back 0.4 Mt KCl idle capacity••Annual capacity: 1.89 Mt KClAnnual capacity: 1.89 Mt KCl••Plan 1 Mt debottleneck/expansion by 2012Plan 1 Mt debottleneck/expansion by 2012
Cory Cory ••Underground mineUnderground mine••Annual capacity: 1.36 Mt KClAnnual capacity: 1.36 Mt KCl••Two expansions totalling 1.2 Mt KCl by 2010 Two expansions totalling 1.2 Mt KCl by 2010 and 1.0 Mt KCl by 2012and 1.0 Mt KCl by 2012
PotashCorp -Agrium, Inc.-Mosiac Potash-
All potash production data from public domain company reports.
Regina
Saskatoon
SASKATCHEWAN
Scale0 100 200 300 400 km
Potash distribution
N
Lanigan Lanigan ••Underground mineUnderground mine••Annual capacity: 3.83 Mt KClAnnual capacity: 3.83 Mt KCl••Brought back 1.50 Mt KCl idled capacity Brought back 1.50 Mt KCl idled capacity in 2008in 2008
Patience LakePatience Lake••Solution mineSolution mine••Annual capacity: 1.03 Mt KClAnnual capacity: 1.03 Mt KCl••Bring back 0.36 Mt KCl idled capacity by Bring back 0.36 Mt KCl idled capacity by 20092009
Rocanville Rocanville ••Underground mineUnderground mine••2005 completed expansion increasing 2005 completed expansion increasing capacity 0.75 Mt to 3.04 Mt KCL.capacity 0.75 Mt to 3.04 Mt KCL.••2.0 Mt KCl mine and mill expansion 2.0 Mt KCl mine and mill expansion –– 2012 2012 expanding by additional 0.7 Mt by 2014expanding by additional 0.7 Mt by 2014
PotashCorp -Agrium, Inc.-Mosiac Potash-
All potash production data from public domain company reports.
Regina
Saskatoon
SASKATCHEWAN
Scale0 100 200 300 400 km
Potash distribution
N
PotashCorp -Agrium, Inc.-Mosiac Potash-
Esterhazy (KEsterhazy (K--1 & K1 & K--2)2)••Underground mineUnderground mine••Increased annual capacity by 1.1 Mt to Increased annual capacity by 1.1 Mt to 5.30 Mt KCl in 2007.5.30 Mt KCl in 2007.••Planned expansions of 0.9 Mt in 2012 and Planned expansions of 0.9 Mt in 2012 and 0.9 Mt in 2020.0.9 Mt in 2020.
Belle PlaineBelle Plaine••Solution mineSolution mine••Annual capacity: 2.80 Mt KClAnnual capacity: 2.80 Mt KCl••Three expansion slated: 0.1 Mt by 2010, Three expansion slated: 0.1 Mt by 2010, 0.4 Mt by 2012, 1.5 Mt 20140.4 Mt by 2012, 1.5 Mt 2014--20172017
ColonsayColonsay••Underground mineUnderground mine••Annual capacity: 1.80 Mt KClAnnual capacity: 1.80 Mt KCl••Two expansions planned: 0.3 Mt by 2009 Two expansions planned: 0.3 Mt by 2009 and 1.0 Mt est. 2013and 1.0 Mt est. 2013--20162016
All potash production data from public domain company reports.
Performance of Saskatchewan Performance of Saskatchewan IndustryIndustry
•• Production:Production:2004: 13.6 Mt KCl2004: 13.6 Mt KCl2005: 16.7 Mt KCl 2005: 16.7 Mt KCl 2006: 13.3 Mt KCl2006: 13.3 Mt KCl2007: 16.9 Mt KCl*2007: 16.9 Mt KCl*
•• Planned expansions:Planned expansions:9.8 Mt by 2012 9.8 Mt by 2012 33.4 Mt by 2020.4 Mt by 202013.2 Mt total 13.2 Mt total
•• Future Capacity: Future Capacity: 33.3 Mt by 2012 or 60% 33.3 Mt by 2012 or 60% increase over 2004increase over 200436.7 Mt by 2020 or 75% 36.7 Mt by 2020 or 75% increase over 2004increase over 2004
•• Investments:Investments:$8.66 billion$8.66 billion
0
10
20
30
40
50
1994 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 2012
World ConsumptionSasktachewan CapacitySaskatchewan Production
Mill
ions
of
tonn
es K
Cl
From: NRCAN and IFA*Denotes Record Level
Potash Tenure 2004 vs. 2008Potash Tenure 2004 vs. 20082004200411 Leases11 Leases206,306 ha206,306 ha
Pending Pending Applications:Applications:11 Permits11 Permits227,760 ha227,760 ha
Oct.31 2008Oct.31 2008176 permits 176 permits 11 leases11 leases4,382,196 ha 4,382,196 ha
Potash ExplorationPotash Exploration
Burr ProjectBurr Project
Athabasca Potash Inc.Athabasca Potash Inc.••Conducted 3D seismic surveyConducted 3D seismic survey••14 wells completed to date14 wells completed to date••Indicated Resources 241 MtIndicated Resources 241 Mt••Inferred Resource 183 MtInferred Resource 183 Mt
Saturn ProjectSaturn Project
BHP Billiton BHP Billiton ••Conducted 3D seismic surveyConducted 3D seismic survey••Indicated Resource 479 Mt Indicated Resource 479 Mt ••Inferred Resource 981 Mt Inferred Resource 981 Mt
Legacy ProjectLegacy Project
Potash One Inc.Potash One Inc.••Conducting 3D seismic surveyConducting 3D seismic survey••Indicated Resource 36.8 Mt Indicated Resource 36.8 Mt ••Inferred Resource 360.4 Mt Inferred Resource 360.4 Mt
Raytec MetalsRaytec Metals
Potash NorthPotash North
Western PotashWestern Potash
Darwin ProjectDarwin Project
Kennecott Canada Exploration Kennecott Canada Exploration Inc. (Rio Tinto)Inc. (Rio Tinto)••Drilling Test Holes Drilling Test Holes
Leech Lake ProjectLeech Lake Project
AgriumAgrium –– Leech LakeLeech Lake••Drilling Test Holes Drilling Test Holes
Potash CorpPotash Corp –– BredenburyBredenbury••Drilling Test Holes Drilling Test Holes
Bredenbury Bredenbury ProjectProject
KarnalyteKarnalyteResourcesResources
A Renewed InterestA Renewed Interest
Geologic PotentialGeologic Potential••Defined by geoscience Defined by geoscience work.work.Favorable Regulatory Favorable Regulatory EnvironmentEnvironment••Changes to Potash Royalty Changes to Potash Royalty SystemSystemDemand for CommodityDemand for Commodity••Highest $ in 30 yearsHighest $ in 30 years
15 New Disposition Holders15 New Disposition Holders
Over 20,000 line km of Over 20,000 line km of seismic survey applied for seismic survey applied for from 2007from 2007--20082008
Outlook for MarketsOutlook for Markets• 90% demand growth from
developing nations: increased populations, less land for agriculture, and economic growth.
• Biofuel incentives in the US and EU will increase nutrient demand.
• Demand growth of 3-4% annually = 2 Mt mine
• No new producers before 2011 means current producers will need to run at capacity to keep up with the forecasted demand.
0
10
20
30
40
50
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
World Consumption Developed NationsDeveloping Nations
Mill
ions
of
tonn
es K
Cl
Potash Consumption
From: International Fertilizer Association and USGS
Position of Saskatchewan Position of Saskatchewan Potash in World IndustryPotash in World Industry
•• Largest producer: 33% of world Largest producer: 33% of world production production –– 40% world trade40% world trade
•• Increased prices and volume for Increased prices and volume for foreign salesforeign sales
•• Only major competitors: Russia, Only major competitors: Russia, Belarus, and GermanyBelarus, and Germany
•• Outlined resources:Outlined resources:7.4 to 23.0 Bt KCl conventional7.4 to 23.0 Bt KCl conventional68.9 to 102.5 Bt KCl solution68.9 to 102.5 Bt KCl solution
2007 Estimated Share of World Potash Production
11%
33%
19%
16%
3%
6%11%
Belarus Sask RussiaGermany Israel OtherUSA
From: U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries, January 2008
Position of Saskatchewan Position of Saskatchewan Potash in World IndustryPotash in World Industry
•• Largest producer: 33% of world Largest producer: 33% of world production production –– 40% world trade40% world trade
•• Increased prices and volume for Increased prices and volume for foreign salesforeign sales
•• Only major competitors: Russia, Only major competitors: Russia, Belarus, and GermanyBelarus, and Germany
•• Outlined resources:Outlined resources:7.4 to 23.0 Bt KCl conventional7.4 to 23.0 Bt KCl conventional68.9 to 102.5 Bt KCl solution68.9 to 102.5 Bt KCl solution
From: U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries, January 2008
Estimated Global Potash Reserves
5%
53%
22% 9%
1%
1%
9%
Belarus Sask RussiaGermany Israel OtherUSA
Potash Member RePotash Member Re--MappingMapping
Density Neutron Gamma Ray, and Sonic Logs.
1500 logs
Twice as many as previous interpretation
Well Logs and Historic Core intersections
Patience Lake MemberPatience Lake Member
Belle Plaine MemberBelle Plaine Member
Esterhazy Member
M’
MN
N’
A A’B
B’C
C’D
D’EE’
F F’Z’
Z
1600
1700
1600
1700
1600
1700
1600
1700
TVD 1701.2m
101/16-09-017-20W2/00(0000)
Z112/15-27-016-20W2/00(5410)
<=5.1km=>
101/08-27-016-20W2/00 (5410)
<=0.8km=>
131/07-22-016-18W2/00 (5410)
<=19.1km=> Z'
Patience LakeBelle Plaine
EsterhazyWhite Bear
Patience LakeBelle Plaine
Esterhazy
Top of Prairie Evaporite
White Bear
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
800
900
1000
1100
1200
TD 1256.1m80
090
010
0011
0012
00TD 1269.2m
800
900
1000
1100
TD 1164.3m
101/05-21-033-19W3
W121/08-35-030-28W2
<=196.5km=>
101/04-09-030-19W2
<=83.5km=>
101/08-29-027-07W2
<=118.3km=>
101/14-28-027-03W2<=40.2km=> E
Cross SectionsCross Sections
Poster 24 in Adam BallroomPoster 24 in Adam Ballroom
